Shari's tennis plays

**WIZARDOFBEANTOWN** · 05-23-11, 10:49 AM

GOOD LUCK SHARI TODAY AND EVERYONE ELSE

**TopGun1** · 05-23-11, 01:56 PM

Pretty good day Shari

Shame about Raonic but other than very pleased with how today went

**Nyphra** · 05-23-11, 02:45 PM

Thanks for the awesome tips Shari

.

**biff** · 05-23-11, 04:45 PM

Thank you Shari for that Watson pick. It finally got me out of the hole I have been in for the past week.

**brucethebear** · 05-23-11, 06:21 PM

3-1 last night Shari - thanks

Stupid Raonic stopeed the sweep.

BtB

**Mirar Baseball** · 05-23-11, 06:57 PM

A
W
E
S
O
M
E

please please please take some time off of this modding business... no more missing bets! you seriously need a vacation at least four weeks a year (guess which four weeks I think they should be)

... yes, the first week of every major!

**hutennis** · 05-23-11, 09:09 PM

Originally posted by Soon2BRich

hey people i dont usually bet on tennis but wow shari u really made 45 units in around 3 months? thats brillaint

Not to take anything away from shari's effort but...

Are you aware that that almost half of those units came from just 4 coin flips with huge (compared to her average) risk size.

40% of profit from 1% of bets that where stupidly (no offence) oversized.
It could have easily gone another way and shari would be struggling to break even just about now, after 400 bets.

So it looks like the most brilliant thing about those results was that perfectly timed lucky break.
By now it's hidden nicely inside the mountain of data and barely noticeable but none the less it went a long way toward creating such an impressive bottom line.

Btw, number of months days or years does not really matter. It is amount of bets that counts.

**robert_wrath** · 05-23-11, 11:17 PM

Big lineup today. Grace us with your picks.

**chinoloco212** · 05-24-11, 12:04 AM

Thanks for your picks Shari! you saved me yesterday!

**shari91** · 05-24-11, 12:44 AM

Originally posted by hutennis

Not to take anything away from shari's effort but... Are you aware that that almost half of those units came from just 4 coin flips with huge (compared to her average) risk size. 40% of profit from 1% of bets that where stupidly (no offence) oversized. It could have easily gone another way and shari would be struggling to break even just about now, after 400 bets. So it looks like the most brilliant thing about those results was that perfectly timed lucky break. By now it's hidden nicely inside the mountain of data and barely noticeable but none the less it went a long way toward creating such an impressive bottom line. Btw, number of months days or years does not really matter. It is amount of bets that counts.

Why would your post take anything away from me? If anything, I feel like you've given me a compliment.

Out of 394 picks over almost 5 months, I've had 8 that were to win more than 1 unit.

5.5 to win 5: win
5.5 to win 5: win
5.15 to win 5: win
2.75 to win 2.5: lose FEDERER

5.65 to win 5: win
2.34 to win 2: win
4.59 to win 3: win

And the one I'll never forget when Baggy retired instead of finishing off the last set, 5.5 to win 5: PUSH.

6-1-1. For a coin-flipper who has stated many times all over this forum and elsewhere that I'm trying to learn when to up and lower my unit sizes, I'll take that.

I'm not a pro. I'm learning along with everyone else. I was just silly enough to start a thread, keep it going for a year even when I cop grief in here - which mainly seems to happen during Slams when people who have never posted in my thread before come out of the woodwork - and keep a spreadsheet every day after many people asked me to. Very few others on the forum do all of the above and I can see why. Not sure how much longer I can keep going with it all as my life is suddenly much busier than it was before but I'm going to do my best.

Good luck everyone today! I'm waiting for OnCourt to update and then I'll start making my bets.

**CanuckG** · 05-24-11, 12:52 AM

GL Shari. Looking to make another parlay for tonight.

**hutennis** · 05-24-11, 01:47 AM

Originally posted by shari91

Why would your post take anything away from me? If anything, I feel like you've given me a compliment.

........

Thats correct.

Nothing against your effort and/or your record.

As a matter of fact I think that even if we were to adjust results of those overbets to their EV thus negating that lucky boost to your results you'd still be up substantially.
An simply being up after 400 bets in and of itself is nothing to sneeze at.

My comment was addressed basically to that guy i quoted, with a sole purpose of delivering the thought that there is much more involved in evaluating cappers results than simply looking at the bottom line.

And as far as trying to learn when up and down units...
How about just betting to win %% of your BR that is equal to your edge or something very close to it?

GL

**ANGRYBLACK** · 05-24-11, 03:14 AM

Originally posted by shari91

Why would your post take anything away from me? If anything, I feel like you've given me a compliment.

Out of 394 picks over almost 5 months, I've had 8 that were to win more than 1 unit.

5.5 to win 5: win
5.5 to win 5: win
5.15 to win 5: win
2.75 to win 2.5: lose FEDERER

5.65 to win 5: win
2.34 to win 2: win
4.59 to win 3: win

And the one I'll never forget when Baggy retired instead of finishing off the last set, 5.5 to win 5: PUSH.

6-1-1. For a coin-flipper who has stated many times all over this forum and elsewhere that I'm trying to learn when to up and lower my unit sizes, I'll take that.

I'm not a pro. I'm learning along with everyone else. I was just silly enough to start a thread, keep it going for a year even when I cop grief in here - which mainly seems to happen during Slams when people who have never posted in my thread before come out of the woodwork - and keep a spreadsheet every day after many people asked me to. Very few others on the forum do all of the above and I can see why. Not sure how much longer I can keep going with it all as my life is suddenly much busier than it was before but I'm going to do my best.

Good luck everyone today! I'm waiting for OnCourt to update and then I'll start making my bets.

You go, gurl!!!

**shari91** · 05-24-11, 03:26 AM

Here are my picks so far. I'm still debating Monaco and Mahut, both with the handicaps but something's holding me back. Numbers say yes, gut says no.

http://shari91.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

For some reason I don't have the best feeling about how I'm going to do today. Not sure why - I haven't done anything differently than normally and had enough time to look through the same things I always do but I just kind of have a bad vibe. Hopefully I'm wrong but I guess we'll see in about 12hrs or so. Good luck everyone

**labrador** · 05-24-11, 04:14 AM

It's totally normal to feel this way sometimes

To me, there aren't too many interesting matches to bet on today so I'm not that excited either. I'll just bet on Morita, her odd looks good to me.

**labrador** · 05-24-11, 04:25 AM

And Morita is down 0-3

**BathingApe** · 05-24-11, 04:48 AM

ugh, I bet on Morita too. For some reason I overlooked the fact that the other girl is from France....

**sharlataans** · 05-24-11, 04:50 AM

Lubicic has experience and nerves of steel. Gets the break back.

**bettorjon** · 05-24-11, 05:39 AM

hey shari, ive seen that youve picked erakovic to win 2-0.

is she that good? or rus is just that bad?

im planning on taking the erakovic ML though.

thanks and GL

**shari91** · 05-24-11, 05:43 AM

Originally posted by bettorjon

hey shari, ive seen that youve picked erakovic to win 2-0. is she that good? or rus is just that bad? im planning on taking the erakovic ML though. thanks and GL

You had me worried there for a minute! No, I only took Erakovic on the ML. Garrigues 2-0.

**bettorjon** · 05-24-11, 05:48 AM

Originally posted by shari91

You had me worried there for a minute! No, I only took Erakovic on the ML. Garrigues 2-0.

oooops my bad.

thanks. lets get this

**brucethebear** · 05-24-11, 06:00 AM

Well, Muzz has a small brain fart in the third, but holds it together to win 6-3.
Cash the under 27.5.

Another great pick Shari.

BtB

**Enkhbat** · 05-24-11, 06:19 AM

Do you guys Sam Querrey today?

**shari91** · 05-24-11, 06:30 AM

Originally posted by Enkhbat

Do you guys Sam Querrey today?

I don't really bet his matches very often. I don't like him, don't like his attitude, don't like his up and down mood swings, don't like how he'll give up when he's behind, nothing

The only time I'll really get involved when he's playing - either to back him or fade him - is when I can get a clear edge on the price. Today I can't and I probably still wouldn't touch him if I could.

**labrador** · 05-24-11, 07:14 AM

Originally posted by BathingApe

ugh, I bet on Morita too. For some reason I overlooked the fact that the other girl is from France....

Morita pulled through!

**changkaikk** · 05-24-11, 07:37 AM

Good luck with your picks.

**shari91** · 05-24-11, 07:41 AM

Originally posted by labrador

Morita pulled through!

Thank goodness

I got really lucky with Garrigues and Chela both winning the first set. That along with Morita and Murray fighting back in the 3rd to save my under has been enough to fry my nerves a bit.

Originally posted by changkaikk

Good luck with your picks.

Thanks chang. I definitely need good luck more than normal today

**beefcake** · 05-24-11, 07:48 AM

Shari did you see that Almagro was 275-1 at SBR to win?...I took that bait hoping to do the same thing as you with Melzer...Having both of them in the same bracket if murray stumbles that could be a 100% QF spot for one of them.

**shari91** · 05-24-11, 07:57 AM

Originally posted by beefcake

Shari did you see that Almagro was 275-1 at SBR to win?...I took that bait hoping to do the same thing as you with Melzer...Having both of them in the same bracket if murray stumbles that could be a 100% QF spot for one of them.

Wow, was he really? That seems a bit high but admittedly I didn't pay much attention to him. And I can't bet points anyway so I'm only ever in there to grade matches these days. But that could be a decent chance to green out as well. Just need Murray to slip a little bit

I'm spewing right now over Larsson. I had her on TI and in my betslip today with the +6 handicap and ditched her for flippin' Ondraskova because the new balls here this year seem to be favouring big servers. Had bloody King with the +6 too and chickened out because she burnt me last time I took her. Think it's going to be one of those days

**beefcake** · 05-24-11, 07:59 AM

Vania has become a decent singles player...I would bet her in doubles all day long though with her Giant partner

**bettorjon** · 05-24-11, 08:08 AM

Erakovic still hasnt started? i wonder why

**shari91** · 05-24-11, 08:14 AM

Originally posted by bettorjon

Erakovic still hasnt started? i wonder why

She's on Court 5 after Giraldo/Andujar. Going to be awhile yet before she starts as they've only just finished the first set.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-24-11, 08:14 AM

I always love it when you say "bloody" ... it makes me giggle. For the Grand Slam drop-ins, check the Daily Schedule ... Start times at your book will not be accurate unless they are the first matches on that court.

Roland-Garros 2025 - The official site

http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/scores/schedule/index.html

The exclusive home of Roland-Garros tennis delivering live scores, schedules, draws, players, news, photos, videos and the most complete coverage of The 2025 Roland-Garros Tournament.

**bettorjon** · 05-24-11, 08:27 AM

thanks. i hope its worth the wait. LOL

**shari91** · 05-24-11, 08:40 AM

I've added Mahut +136. Only for half a unit though as I've missed the best price by a dollar and I don't like the fact that the line has moved in his favour so much. That tends to go screwy quite often.