EP36's Tennis Talk

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-22-10, 07:36 PM

So I waited on the Federer future because I had some funds tied up, up to +200. Gonna book it now.

**beefcake** · 06-22-10, 07:51 PM

Great price,cant believe people are reacting on that 1st round match.Think it was more falla having seen fed 2 times already recently then fed sucking.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-22-10, 07:59 PM

Yeah will be interesting to see what the price goes down to if he cruises tomorrow. Right now he's pretty much a co-favorite with Rafa. Murray's price has dropped like a rock from +950 to +700. Glad I did get that early.

**manidyon** · 06-22-10, 08:10 PM

thanks for the seppi picks.. cashed that..

**beefcake** · 06-22-10, 08:40 PM

5dimes has Fed/murray/nadal at -300....Seems like a great price..i think its almost certain that one of them is in the final,and you would have a good + money dog to hedge in that match

**beefcake** · 06-22-10, 08:42 PM

Look at the big 4..only goes from -300 to -340 with Djokovic..Shows you what the books think of his chances..

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-22-10, 11:51 PM

WEDNESDAY

PARLAY: FISH + KOHLSCHREIBER [-141]
Fish takes on Florian Mayer. Mayer ousted Marin Cilic, which these days isn't exactly an earth shattering result. Mayer was solid on serve and cashed in on Cilic's poor performance. One thing that stuck out is that Mayer could only convert 3 of 16 break opps. That won't normally cut it. Mayer has a decent record on grass at 14-8 and made the quarters back in the day [2004] at Wimbledon. Fish though is full of confidence with his recent Queens Club title. He also crushed 25 aces in his straight sets win over Tomic in his opener. Fish normally is capable of going 2-3 rounds when he gets a good opening draw at Wimbledon and this is that situation. So long as he continues to rip off that big serve, he should survive Mayer in 4 sets I think. Kohlschreiber draws Gabashvili. Kohlschreiber mostly dominated Starace in his first round, losing one set but only allowing the Italian to win 6 games in the other three. Gabashvili rebounded from losing his opening set against Lucky Loser Ramon Delgado to roll in 4. He used a good serve to his advantage to score just his 2nd grass court win in 10 tries. Kohlschreiber is definitely the more accomplished player on grass and Gabashvili certainly wasn't concerned with prepping for Wimbledon as he chose to cash a paycheck playing a clay court Challenger in early June rather than getting time in on one of the grass build-up tourneys to Wimbledon. That was the same tournament Wawrinka chose to play and he was ushered out in Round 1. So long as Kohlschreiber keeps focused and gets his first serve in around 70%, I think he'll advance.

DJOKOVIC-DENT OVER 38.5 [-115]
Some people may choose to jump on Dent to upset Djokovic after he struggled to put away Rochus in his opener, but I think Rochus really matched up well with Djokovic as their head-2-head history showed. Dent brings an entirely different approach against Djokovic. His big serve can help him earn cheap points and he usually needs them due to a horrendous number of double faults lately. Djokovic has struggled with his own serve which should give Dent opportunities for break points. This combination of off & on serving should make for a back & forth affair. Think Dent is good enough if he can get his first serve in enough to win a set off Djokovic which is what will be needed to give this a chance.

LUCZAK +145
Clement scored the upset over Tipsarevic in the first round, revenge for losing to him the week before. Otherwise, Clement has been forgetable on grass this year at just 2-3. Luczak served extremely well with 13 aces in a 4 set win against Robredo. Luczak has gone on record about his excitement of finally getting to the main draw at Wimbledon at age 30. He's also said he believes he's as well prepared for grass courts as he's ever been due to extensive training on the surface for once. That showed some with some success in a pre-Wimbledon tournament where he won a couple matches. If Luczak gets his first serve in, he'll have his chance here.

**shari91** · 06-23-10, 12:03 AM

Hey EP - does your book have totals up yet? I'm curious to see what it's set at for the Hewitt/Korolev match. Admittedly, I'm shocking at totals for the most part but I can see this one going at least 4 sets if not 5, if Korolev can continue smashing the ball.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-23-10, 12:04 AM

32.5 at 5Dimes. I actually looked at the under. Hewitt played 4 sets against Gonzalez with a total of 34. Don't think the books think much of Korolev on grass.

**shari91** · 06-23-10, 12:12 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

32.5 at 5Dimes. I actually looked at the under. Hewitt played 4 sets against Gonzalez with a total of 34. Don't think the books think much of Korolev on grass.

Thanks! As I said, I suck arse at picking them but started thinking about the over after seeing an interview with Hewitt here today. He said he was expecting it to be a tight battle and was very leery of how Korolev's been hitting his backhand lately. But I'll definitely defer to your opinion and stay away from this one altogether. Best of luck!

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-23-10, 12:14 AM

I stayed off it though. I thought under, but 32.5 is so low. One tight set or one set like Hewitt had against Maximo and the over could be cinched easy.

**Goat Milk** · 06-23-10, 01:25 AM

Fish is looking very solid. He's the American to watch for here besides Roddick.

Best of luck with your plays.

**Shifty107** · 06-23-10, 07:00 AM

Like the picks eagle. GL mate.

**JNic** · 06-23-10, 07:04 AM

fish is unbreakable on grass, i think he will face roddick and over is just pure money

**rumple** · 06-23-10, 07:39 AM

Theres the jinx getting broke twice in set 2

**rumple** · 06-23-10, 07:47 AM

Looks like Fish is cooked , broken again.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-23-10, 08:12 AM

Definitely hexed this match with all the early comments.

**beefcake** · 06-23-10, 08:14 AM

Come on fish,get it together,you didnt go to all this work to get in shape and get beaten by F.mayer of all people.

**JNic** · 06-23-10, 08:15 AM

haha yea, once i say he's unbreakable, he's literally broken the next game

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-23-10, 08:18 AM

He looks done. His 2nd serve has been trash. Oh well, another parlay in the toilet.

**Boner_18** · 06-23-10, 08:20 AM

He looks in good shape. But Mayer ain't no slouch either.

**beefcake** · 06-23-10, 08:40 AM

All those free weight sessions and hill climbs are going to pay off,i can feel it,numerous opps to break but no dice!

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-23-10, 08:52 AM

He's done. He hasn't been able to break Mayer all day, not gonna change now.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-23-10, 08:57 AM

BRENDAN EVANS +116
Gut feeling on this one against Montanes. Montanes is a quality player, but his wins on grass have come mainly against guys who like himself, prefer clay. Evans had a solid run in qualifying here and possesses a serve than can keep him in games. The price opened as a pick and the public is on Montanes no doubt because of the ranking disparity. If Evans shows a nerve today on-serve, I like him to work through.

**beefcake** · 06-23-10, 09:05 AM

Aces fish 30-4
Winners fish 102-37....

Not converting break chances will kill ya..

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-23-10, 10:14 AM

Yeah if you look strictly at stats, Fish looks like he would have crushed him.

**beefcake** · 06-23-10, 10:15 AM

Im taking fish as a future if he enters newport.He was the #1 seed last year but dropped out to play davis cup.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-23-10, 10:59 AM

Oh my God, just finishing watching the end of the USA soccer match. I am pumped! Let's start getting some of this shit in tennis now.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-23-10, 12:43 PM

Dent can't get a 2nd serve in to save his life, Djokovic rolling him in the 3rd after a tie breaker in the 1st. Evans-Montanes going to a 5th most likely. Luczak and Clement tied at 1. Best I think I can hope for today is 2-2 with the parlay already screwed and the total likely next in line.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-23-10, 12:58 PM

Today is going to end forgetably. Evans down in the 5th already. Dent done pretty much. Luczak will be down 2-1. Might be 0-4, yay!

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-23-10, 03:40 PM

THURSDAY

PARLAY: MALISSE + FERRER [-128]
No time to sulk about Wednesday. Malisse is an obvious starting point for me in the parlay formula today. He draws a qualifer in Reister who won his first main draw ATP grass court match against a fellow qualifier in the 1st round. Malisse has been solid in June on this surface and had a serve working against JCF that was difficult to break. 27 aces in all. If he brings something on that level again, he should have too much. Ferrer draws Serra who has never made it past Round 2 at Wimbleon. Ferrer had it all working in his opener against Kiefer, who some such as myself, might be a danger to Ferrer. The Spaniard served well and got the breaks when he needed them to Kiefer away in straights. The key as always with Ferrer is his serve. When he can get his first serve in in the high 60s or above, he usually stands a solid chance to win. He is always a great defensive player who can offer up break opportunities against his opponents almost at-will if they don't possess an overpowering serve. Serra does not. Also toss in that Ferrer is 2-0 at Grand Slams vs. Serra in his career, although they both came 3-4 years ago.

**rumple** · 06-23-10, 11:38 PM

Like your parlay but added Jie Zheng for +180 payout. Jie decent grass courter while Kvitova just broke her grass court cherry (now 1-4 on grass) and seems outclassed.

**Wilforth** · 06-24-10, 12:25 AM

EP,

I'll tail that parlay. Thanks for your good works.

**psulions** · 06-24-10, 02:26 AM

time to bounce back. like the parlay

**manidyon** · 06-24-10, 02:29 AM

tail ur parlay too.. thanks