Moar Threads? Moar Picks

[Hardcoar]

Sousa @ 6.8 – 5 units

[Hardcoar]

Sousa 2-0 @ 14.5 – 3 units

[kenz]

[Hardcoar]

SHOT DOWN IN FLAMES!

[Hardcoar]

A complete grade-C jizz-rag after playing flawlessly vs Jerzy the night before. Tough luck!

[Hardcoar]

Kyrgios 2-1 @ 12.5– 3 units

[fitguy67]

^^the sweet spot of your racquet hits^^

ice-water in the veins composure...refusal to accept the "i exceeded all expectations" consolation prize and tank at any point...impressive as all hell...to have actually taken (not merely played well and threatened to take...to have actually taken) the scalps of Nadal and Federer (albeit not on their best surfaces, but that's splitting hairs)...kid's not even 20years old yet...the long process of "the changing of the guard" has clearly begun...

not bad for an underwear model with a haircut stolen from a gay muppet

[Hardcoar]

I wasn't sure whether you were commending me or Curious Nick. Then I considered I haven't actually beaten Fedal myself... although symbolically, perhaps I have in terms of betting...

A lot of (attention-whoring) people keep bitching as if tempestuous character and exceptional composure were mutually exclusive, yet have the nerve to bemoan the lack of "personalities" and "characters" in the sport of tennis while lambastering those few that do occur. Kyrgios played a good match overall, but it was far from great in terms of quality (although the drama and suspense certainly was great). More than anything, I admire how seemingly unphazed he is by coincidental circumstance.

P.S. Good luck is good.

[Hardcoar]

Vankova @ 6.8 – 2 units

[Hardcoar]

Thiem-Park @ 10 – 5 units

L

Anderson/Chardy @ 7.2 – 2 units

L

Weintraub @ 4.3 – 2 units

L

Petkovic 2-1 @ 5.3 – 2 units

L

Collarini @ 4.64

W

Murray @ 4.2 – 4 units

L

Linzer @ 10

L

Kostova @ 1.97 – 2 units

L

Bemelmans @ 2.52 – 5 units

W

Arguello @ 2.08 – 3 units

W

Bondarenko @ 2.08 – 3 units

W

Frech @ 5.7 – 2 units

L

Peer @ 3.9 – 3 units

L

Sock @ 1.6 – 3 units

W

Brown @ 3.25

L

Mladenovic @ 2.3 – 2 units

L

Linette @ 3.5 – 2 units

L

Bondarenko @ 4.4 – 4 units

L

Mestach @ 19.5 – 3 units

L

Chung @ 4.3 – 4 units

L

Chung @ 5 – 3 units

L

Davis 2-1 @ 9.2 – 2 units

L

Koukalova @ 9.2 – 5 units

L

Kerber @ 1.81 – 5 units

W

Queer @ 2.06 – 10 units

L

Mannarino @ 1.67 – 5 units

L

Vesely @ 3.25 – 2 units

L

Struff @ 3.95 – 2 units

L

Schiavone @ 2.12 – 5 units

L

Haddad-Maia @ 3.55 – 2 units

L

Devvarman @ 4.8 – 3 units

L

Haider-Maurer @ 55 – 2 units

L

Mcgee @ 2.82 – 5 units

W

Dulgheru @ 4 – 5 units

W

Olivo @ 5.5 – 2 units

L

Errani @ 4.8 – 2 units

L

Kohlschreiber @ 5.9 – 2 units

L

Andujar @ 2.7 – 5 units

W

Halep 2-1 @ 4.3 – 2 units

L

Andujar @ 7.6 – 3 units

W

Fratangelo 2-1 @ 7.2 – 2 units

L

Brengle @ 5.1 – 4 units

L

C Smith @ 3.3 – 3 units

L

Nedovyesov @ 2.06 – 5 units

W

Trinker @ 4.6 – 3 units

L

Estrella-Burgos @ 2.74 – 3 units

W

Giorgi 2-1 @ 4.5 – 4 units

L

Rosol @ evens – 5 units

W

Tomic 2-1 @ 4.5 – 3 units

L

Rosol @ 9.2 – 3 units

L

Cuevas @ 3 – 5 units

W

Lucic-Baroni @ 3.6 – 4 units

L

Badosa Gibert @ 5.4 – 4 units

V

Sousa @ 6.8 – 5 units

L

Sousa 2-0 @ 14.5 – 3 units

L

Kyrgios 2-1 @ 12.5– 3 units

W

Vankova @ 6.8 – 2 units

L

Total Wins: 45
Total Losses: 99
Total stake: 307u
Yield (after commission): +11.04765u
Return on investment (rounded): 3.6%

[nspa87]

I don't see vankova on bovada- you on bookmaker?

[Hardcoar]

I'm using Betfair, but that was posted shortly before match start, and Vankova just now lost the first set in a tiebreak.

[nspa87]

Not trying to mush u! good luck

[fitguy67]

in my previous post i was complimenting you primarily...it was, after all, the sweet spot of your betting racket that hit that @12.5'er

then I obviously got carried away with the significance of the feat involved in that bet...whatever the overall quality of the match...Fed certainly didn't beat himself...nor did Nadal a while back......Nick had to play at least well enough to take down each of these great competitors who didn't do anything to make the job easier a la Fognini/Monfils/Jerzy when their self-sabotaging tendencies kick in...so owning a W against both of these two current top-5'ers (and more importantly, two all-time greats of the sport) has to put this guy in very select company...throw in the tender age and it's even more impressive
__________

but come to think of it, your betting style also requires composure...
i've followed you throughout your last two threads and this one and always find it so satisfying when a relatively short but exhilarating run of good luck suffices to wipe out the bad taste of a frustrating-drought that preceded it...the longer and more frustrating the drought, the more exhilarating the deluge when it finally arrives...faith in consistently applying value considerations to your picks, and continuing to do so when they aren't hitting definitely qualifies as composure

so gung ho to both Nick and you...for flamboyant brands of composure...Nick with his tennis playing and you with your tennis betting (which is in many ways just as difficult to excel in)

[Hardcoar]

I was being sarcastically cynical in a (to me) humouristic way. That is the reference indeed, however!

[cryptocap]

you can probably increase your pick percentage by not betting on a lot of coin toss competitors, clean up your spread a bit and you'll see a lot more return

[ManeOnFire]

you can probably increase your pick percentage by not betting on a lot of coin toss competitors, clean up your spread a bit and you'll see a lot more return

i LOVE this forum

[fitguy67]

yeah, in retrospect, it's always easy to know what to "filter out"...but in real- time/real-life...you end up shooting yourself in the foot by filtering out at least as much $-won as $-lost...and it is these most easy to filter out cuz they're "so obviously unlikely to hit" ones that pay the most...and it's precisely when these big-payout (hence lo-likelihood, hence most likely to be filtered out in an attempt to be more "sensible") surprises hit that the money is made...more than compensating for all the losing plays that preceded it

plays that win are like the thief in the night...we know not their hour nor their place (nor their odds)...if you've got a good value-finding protocol...i say play em all and be patient...cuz if you miss one cuz it looked "SO unlikely to hit"...Murphy's Law kicks in and you miss out on that surprise lottery payout that makes all of those previous mishits worthwhile

[cryptocap]

i LOVE this forum

I see it as too many picks and too many units..you can laugh all you want but you probably dont make anything lol

[fitguy67]

HC, u see any value in Kvito @ 6.35?

[fitguy67]

I see it as too many picks and too many units..you can laugh all you want but you probably dont make anything lol

you guessing about another poster's profitability does nothing to substantiate your assertion that THIS THREAD's play-caller, Hardcoar does "too much" or "too many" (or "too little"/"too few" for that matter) of anything...

do a search of all three of his previous threads and check out the profit generated and the ROI (units-netted relative to the units-risked) ...both singularly outstanding over a very long haul that pushes/maybe exceeds 1000 plays by now with a verified ROI well north of 5%...for that type of average rainfall, it's worth suffering through the painful droughts till the next monsoon comes

if you can't bear these frustrating low hit-rate periods that must precede the inevitable exhilarating little rallies (that usually culminate with a hi-payout surprise or two on exactly the sort of plays that squares will want to "filter out")...then this thread, obviously ain't for you...

why don't you start your own thread where you can put on "just the right amount" of "just the right kind" of plays, and risk "just the right amount" of units on them...your Goldilocks plays...

or why not just chime in and veto any of the plays posted here you would "filter out" and keep an accurate record of how these plays would have done ...i'd bet that these would show a low hit-rate but still be substantially net-plus-units over the long haul (meaning you'd be losing money in return for your investment of cleverness)...

______
I know u follow rudeboy, so do I...and I can tell you that Hardcoar is as good over the long-haul in tennis as rudeboy is in soccer and hockey...but the ride is considerably bumpier over here (nature of the game: tennis is much higher in variance than any team sport)..so back off and let him do his thing...i don't want him filtering out anything in order to try to satisfy someone else's idea of "enough"...

if you don't like any of the plays here, cuz they look like donations to the book, then don't play'em...but i'd advise against it...cuz you'll miss the surprise big-payout hits that make this thread both worthwhile and fun...capiche? (in other words, this thread doesn't need a plekz...but if you want to be a backseat driver like that...then at least keep a record of how your omitted plays fared...to back up/test your theory of "too many/too much")

[miniuser]

Nice thread. You guys have any recommendations for US-friendly tennis books? It seems like everyone likes Betfair for tennis, but sadly I am the wrong nationality, I use Bovada sometimes but they kinda suck. 5D, Bookmaker?

[fitguy67]

5d is the single best book available to US'rs...2nd book i'd add to my stable would be betonline...after that one of the bookmaker fam, after that heritage

[Hardcoar]

HC, u see any value in Kvito @ 6.35?

I afraid both that I have not been looking at this board until now, as well as that I would have said "no".

My congratulations if you did bet her in any way, though.

[Hardcoar]

I see it as too many picks and too many units..you can laugh all you want but you probably dont make anything lol

I think you have a good point. As does Fitguy.

I appreciate your thoughts! In order for me to better understand what you mean (and potentially benefit from it), could you please explain and build upon your first post (the one not quoted) above?

[fitguy67]

I afraid both that I have not been looking at this board until now, as well as that I would have said "no".

My congratulations if you did bet her in any way, though.

fear of making what would in retrospect seem like a "donation" kept me from the ML...

but i did bet her+1.5sets @2.67

[miniuser]

5d is the single best book available to US'rs...2nd book i'd add to my stable would be betonline...after that one of the bookmaker fam, after that heritage

Thanks, cheers man.

[Hardcoar]

Back in the usrs

[fitguy67]

[Hardcoar]

Pavlasek @ 4.4 – 5 units

[Hardcoar]

Berdych @ 3.95 – 10 units

[Hardcoar]

Switzerland (Ice Hockey) ML @ 5.1 – 3 units

[Hardcoar]

Sweden you pseudo-neutral lucky pieces of shit!

[Hardcoar]

Murray 2-1 @ 8 – 5 units

[fitguy67]

Anderson at 2.97 vs. Kohli?

Arnaboldi at 8.36 vs. Goffin?

Querrey at 3.22 vs. Tsonga?

Klizan at 3.31 vs. Dolgo?

Gavrilova at 2.46 v. Bencic?

Pizza-Face at 5.68 vs. CSNavarro?
___________
these are the plays that leap out at me based on the straight-up basics such as the layout you get at tennisexplorer.com...but i don't know shit about how to work the "points to defend" or the "injury" angles into the picture...so thot' i'd ask for your opinion...are these at least good candidates for "short listing" or am i still square as fukk