SirtySree's Rookie Player Watch + Match Analysis

[SirtySree]

Ymer wins his 1st Challenger title.

His game has improved and transformed an insane amount this year. He is suddenly such an attacking player and has a brutal forehand which was not the case this time last year.

6-0 in clay finals so far. The kid loves the big matches and thrives under pressure which is always a good quality when identifying potential stars. Ranked 130 now and heads off to start his grass season against Sela tomorrow.

[leetreaper]

Ymer wins his 1st Challenger title.

His game has improved and transformed an insane amount this year. He is suddenly such an attacking player and has a brutal forehand which was not the case this time last year.

6-0 in clay finals so far. The kid loves the big matches and thrives under pressure which is always a good quality when identifying potential stars. Ranked 130 now and heads off to start his grass season against Sela tomorrow.

[SirtySree]

Ymer @3 against Sela looks good.

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Here's a list of those that follow the angle for this week. Missed out on qualifiers as was bit too busy to look through them. Not much that actually looks good in the main draw but that's usually the case with the angle anyways.

Musialek
Boutillier (dont like him clay tho)
Mager
Caruso
Norrie
Broady
Milton

[krenwinkle]

I wonder how ymer goes on the grass?

[SirtySree]

Grass would definitely have to be his worst surface. He isn't comfortable at the net but his game has evolved this year to suit other surfaces instead of just clay so he shouldn't be too bad.

Definitely think there's a bit of value @3 against Sela but not going to bet it till I actually see how he goes as I've never actually seen him play on grass before.

[SirtySree]

Btw the youngest Djokovic got another wildcard to a Challenger event this week. He is actually the fav as he is going up against another wildcard. Dream draw for whoever is on that side of the draw.

[Hardcoar]

I really doubt @3 is any good. Then again jew-boy is mostly a useless jizz-rag these days...

[leetreaper]

Why is Dimitrov / Queer Boy game interrupted?

[SirtySree]

Hewitt 2nd set is the 4th loss I've had in a week where my player choked with a match/set point or 8...

I really doubt @3 is any good. Then again jew-boy is mostly a useless jizz-rag these days...

8 of his 21 wins this year has been against top 100 players although most are players falling out of the top 100 but Sela fits that category perfectly.

Grass is Ymer's least preferred surface but against Sela, anything above $3 screams value to me even if it still is only small.

Why is Dimitrov / Queer Boy game interrupted?

Rain/Bad light as usual probably.

[SirtySree]

Disappointing result for Ymer given how the match ended up being played out. Got off to a slow start, porbably due to the surface change but then dominated to take the 1st set and was dominating in the 2nd set before missing a bunch of break chances and getting broken against his 1st break point. Then the 3rd set was pretty comfortable going for Sela who played well in that last set.

Not bad for his first grass match of the year but a bit disappointed he didnt end up winning it.

[SirtySree]

Also here's a summary of the books for those that are interested.

TonyBet has really low inplay limits. Higher the odds, lower the limits. With odds @3 roughly, limits are only about $200 but that suits me as most plays I do are only $100 and only the odd $200 or more, plus I could always split it up across multiple books. They follow bet365 from the looks of things but only have maybe 75% of the matches at best.

Winner surprisingly has slightly better odds than I recall. They have maybe 75% of matches available as well including some that aren't even on bet365. Not sure what their limits are but again, not an issue with me.

As for my two old books 10bet and WilliamHill. I cashed out on WH as explained earlier and received the money in my bank within 3-4 days. Whereas, I am having withdraw issues yet again with 10bet. I made a withdraw on them 1 day before WH and yet the withdraw can still be cancelled as it's not even processed/accepted yet. It takes another week at least for them after acceptance before showing up in my bank. So I am pretty much just trying to solely use the two new books I got but I still have to use 10bet from time to time due to the fact they have 90% of the matches available.

Again, I do not recommend using 10bet unless you have no other options.

[SirtySree]

Berdych didn't lose a single point on serve in the whole 2nd set against Coric. Lost 6 points on serve in the 1st set with 2 of those points gifted to start the match.

Berdych v Karlovic should be all tiebreaks. Both serving and hitting well. Can't see Berdych getting broken but he may have a few break chances. I always like Karlovic as the dog as once it gets to a tiebreak, it's a coinflip at worse for him. Karlovic @3.5 may be worth a play or if he goes down a set, plus historically he has given Berdych troubles..

[SirtySree]

Also thought this post may be helpful to some.

There seems to be a common theme around here that in WTA and Challenger/ITF level, players are more inconsistent. This is not true at all. If you compare the win % of players as the favourite, players in the top 10 of both WTA and ATP are at about 80% and players after that are all around 70%. There is no difference between ATP/WTA, in fact you could even say WTA players have a marginally higher % from the player I have checked (top 30 players). Also in ITF level for both men and women, there are tons of players winning 90+% as the favourite, which isn't the case in ATP/WTA.

However, the most important case is the fact that the odds are far nicer in WTA and lower level tennis. Too often ATP matches are complete chalk at 1.1 or 1.2. Additionally, when a player goes down a set in ATP from like $1.3 odds or lower, they are usually around only $2 to win. On the other hand, low level tennis you can usually get them at @3+.

Pretty much to summarise, there is no difference in win % as the favourite across the board and you get far nicer odds on everything that isn't ATP. Some will argue women choke more, but that's pretty much only because breaks are more likely. It can be difficult to watch at times but the end result is always pretty much the same.

[-FlawlessKid]

Some nice insights, keep it up!

[badgerguy]

Can you provide a site or something with ITF rankings? Or how to go about betting the matches? My book offers ITF matches and like you said with not as much chalk might be interested in doing some research.

[gaebiskon]

Also here's a summary of the books for those that are interested.

TonyBet has really low inplay limits. Higher the odds, lower the limits. With odds @3 roughly, limits are only about $200 but that suits me as most plays I do are only $100 and only the odd $200 or more, plus I could always split it up across multiple books. They follow bet365 from the looks of things but only have maybe 75% of the matches at best.

Winner surprisingly has slightly better odds than I recall. They have maybe 75% of matches available as well including some that aren't even on bet365. Not sure what their limits are but again, not an issue with me.

As for my two old books 10bet and WilliamHill. I cashed out on WH as explained earlier and received the money in my bank within 3-4 days. Whereas, I am having withdraw issues yet again with 10bet. I made a withdraw on them 1 day before WH and yet the withdraw can still be cancelled as it's not even processed/accepted yet. It takes another week at least for them after acceptance before showing up in my bank. So I am pretty much just trying to solely use the two new books I got but I still have to use 10bet from time to time due to the fact they have 90% of the matches available.

Again, I do not recommend using 10bet unless you have no other options.

Can't you use Skrill or Neteller at 10bet?

[gaebiskon]

Also thought this post may be helpful to some.

There seems to be a common theme around here that in WTA and Challenger/ITF level, players are more inconsistent. This is not true at all. If you compare the win % of players as the favourite, players in the top 10 of both WTA and ATP are at about 80% and players after that are all around 70%. There is no difference between ATP/WTA, in fact you could even say WTA players have a marginally higher % from the player I have checked (top 30 players). Also in ITF level for both men and women, there are tons of players winning 90+% as the favourite, which isn't the case in ATP/WTA.

However, the most important case is the fact that the odds are far nicer in WTA and lower level tennis. Too often ATP matches are complete chalk at 1.1 or 1.2. Additionally, when a player goes down a set in ATP from like $1.3 odds or lower, they are usually around only $2 to win. On the other hand, low level tennis you can usually get them at @3+.

Pretty much to summarise, there is no difference in win % as the favourite across the board and you get far nicer odds on everything that isn't ATP. Some will argue women choke more, but that's pretty much only because breaks are more likely. It can be difficult to watch at times but the end result is always pretty much the same.

Interesting analysis as always.
Where did you find the win% for ATP/WTA & challengers.

Keep up the good work

[SirtySree]

To address the questions above, I use tennislive.net for research and results of all prior matches and tennisprediction.com for the win% as fav/dog numbers.

As for Skrill and Neteller, I think they are withdraw options but it wouldn't make a difference. Just means it's an extra step to then withdraw from them to my bank and there's probably additional fees too.

[SirtySree]

Here's my leans for today. As also, I'm only posting ML lines but others like spread, 1st set, and +1.5 sets are options with these high odds.

Bourgue @3.5 vs Maximo Gonzales
- Maximo's form has been bad all year
- Bourgue has taken down Maximo before last year while he was in better form
- Bourgue also playing at home

Yang @3 vs Volandri

Castillo @3 vs Gombos
- Gombos has been struggling so far this tourney lucky to win his last match
- Castillo is always dangerous and lost a close match to Gombos last month but think he has a better shot today

Simon @3.4 vs Raonic
- Raonic looking unconvincing since coming back
- Simon will work Raonic around more to test out his foot and I reckon he could steal a set and possibly the win

Garcia-Lopez @3.2 vs Anderson
- Fading Anderson as such a large fav is always a decent shot
- Like the matchup for GGL but only worry is Anderson might manage to grind it out by serving his way to tiebreaks

Mladenovic @3.8 vs Halep
- Mlad took down Halep last year while in worse form
- Currently Mlad's form is great while Halep's isn't

[Julian9]

what do you think are the best two players to parlay/ doesnt matter how much juice

[SirtySree]

what do you think are the best two players to parlay/ doesnt matter how much juice

no, if there's one thing i hate more than parlay and chalk, that would b a chalk parlay

[adila1401]

Here's my leans for today. As also, I'm only posting ML lines but others like spread, 1st set, and +1.5 sets are options with these high odds.

Bourgue @3.5 vs Maximo Gonzales
- Maximo's form has been bad all year
- Bourgue has taken down Maximo before last year while he was in better form
- Bourgue also playing at home

Yang @3 vs Volandri

Castillo @3 vs Gombos
- Gombos has been struggling so far this tourney lucky to win his last match
- Castillo is always dangerous and lost a close match to Gombos last month but think he has a better shot today

Simon @3.4 vs Raonic
- Raonic looking unconvincing since coming back
- Simon will work Raonic around more to test out his foot and I reckon he could steal a set and possibly the win

Garcia-Lopez @3.2 vs Anderson
- Fading Anderson as such a large fav is always a decent shot
- Like the matchup for GGL but only worry is Anderson might manage to grind it out by serving his way to tiebreaks

Mladenovic @3.8 vs Halep
- Mlad took down Halep last year while in worse form
- Currently Mlad's form is great while Halep's isn't

Sharp! As always, thanks for your insight Sirty!

[SirtySree]

Find it hilarious some people on another forum saying how bad Berdych returned against Karlovic. Watch all 45 of his aces. Near impossible to touch all of them to the point even when Berdych was guessing which side it will go and still gets aced. Berd started returing from far back and moved up closer to cut down the angle but nothing could stop Ivo.

Will be interesting to see how Karlovic goes against Federer today who has been able to crack the serve of Karlovic many times in his career.

[SirtySree]

Was hoping to fade Benoit Paire but that muppet was so sick of grass he went and played qualifiers of a small clay Challenger event instead.

Qualifiers of Wimbledon starting soon so once draw/lines are out, I'll post my thoughts on it. Lots of clay courters playing that have barely played on grass before making it hard to predict and can only go off their playing style on clay, which isn't a good measure.

[krenwinkle]

Sirty i know you said 10bet pretty average ...do they grade the retirement's or void? Can you bet live from your mobile? I had two winning retirement's today running in all six parlays uugh worst. It's never the other way round

Look forward to your Wimbledon plays

[SirtySree]

Sirty i know you said 10bet pretty average ...do they grade the retirement's or void? Can you bet live from your mobile? I had two winning retirement's today running in all six parlays uugh worst. It's never the other way round

Look forward to your Wimbledon plays

Na, they void as well. All the books I've used void retirements so can't give u any suggestions. Also they do have a mobile site that u can bet from.

Also I have requested a complete cashout on 10bet now. Sick of them and my withdraw is still just sitting there so I will send them a message soon. Happy with the way TonyBet and Winner are going so moving over to just those two now.

[SirtySree]

Here's my Wimbledon qualifier list. Most are hard to pick as too many clay courters.

dancevic
puetz
pavaslek
pavic
ward
cervantes
bloomfield
gonzalez
kovalik

[SirtySree]

il update this properly after qualifiers.

lets just say i have lost almost a dozen 3rd set tiebreaks in a row plus another half dozen bad beats. will post the results/screenshots of the bs once i get time.

PS: 10bet finally processed my withdraw yesterday so just waiting for it to go thru before i am finally gone from there

[krenwinkle]

Lots of dogs winning last couple of days. lucky to be on break even.

[SirtySree]

Will get in a good update prior to start of Wimbly but busy for another 24hours at least.

Ymer makes it through qualifying yet again. Made it through in all 3 slams this year. He draws Karlovic which to me is a good draw. Karlovic has shown to suck in 5 setters and for a big server, has a horrid tiebreak record. If Ymer can get to tiebreaks, he should win and he has now won his last 6/7 tiebreaks.

Also how do I fade Paire when he gets Youzhny? zzz

Also Nadal with a crazy draw. Good luck to him!

[beefcake]

Better get Youzhny now. All the cash going on him. Paire the muppet..Almost loses to GAIO and Silva schools em.

[SirtySree]

^ i cnt trust youzhny either the way he has been going in the last year. that RG meltdown pretty much summed up the way he is playing at the moment

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btw wont hav time for a proper preview of wimbly unfortunately, sorry folks

[adila1401]

^ i cnt trust youzhny either the way he has been going in the last year. that RG meltdown pretty much summed up the way he is playing at the moment

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btw wont hav time for a proper preview of wimbly unfortunately, sorry folks

Sirty, will u be throwing out dogs as u did for Roland Garros?

[SirtySree]

Sirty, will u be throwing out dogs as u did for Roland Garros?

i cn post some soon bt wont hav any writeups to them.

[adila1401]

i cn post some soon bt wont hav any write ups to them.

Ya man that would be cool, just some dogs u like during rounds..No need for write ups..Can't speak for everyone but I mostly follow football and don't really watch/follow tennis but during Grand Slams..Most players I'm not familiar with their form etc. but your insight would be very helpful! Thanks in advance!