Sets wagering. Something I've been noticing with some books

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  • thorny
    SBR Sharp
    • 12-10-12
    • 351

    #141
    Originally posted by matt1216
    200$ to win 180$ for 2-0 sets

    100$ to win 275$ for 2-1 sets

    bet A) wins 180$ -bet B) 100$


    total money won 80$.... 200$ to win 80$ in the end is 1.40... You guys need to learn math
    SirtySree is right...

    you spent $300 ($200 on Bet A, $100 on Bet B) to win $60...therefore it was technically at 1.20 odds because you spread your bets
    Comment
    • matt1216
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 10-27-11
      • 14683

      #142
      Originally posted by thorny
      SirtySree is right...

      you spent $300 ($200 on Bet A, $100 on Bet B) to win $60...therefore it was technically at 1.20 odds because you spread your bets
      Yes, thankyou for your input.
      Comment
      • matt1216
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 10-27-11
        • 14683

        #143
        Originally posted by matt1216
        WTA Federation Play # 32

        Zakapalova 2-0 sets 2.65
        Resumes tonight
        Comment
        • matt1216
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 10-27-11
          • 14683

          #144
          Originally posted by matt1216
          Play # 33

          Suarrez Navarro 2-0 sets 1.71
          Resumes tonight vs Zakapolova
          Comment
          • freshguy222
            SBR Sharp
            • 12-13-10
            • 421

            #145
            that is what happens when I start tailing someone, lose tiebreaks. Dodig dominated the whole match except for the tiebreak.
            Comment
            • matt1216
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 10-27-11
              • 14683

              #146
              Originally posted by freshguy222
              that is what happens when I start tailing someone, lose tiebreaks. Dodig dominated the whole match except for the tiebreak.
              He had break point up 5-4, shoulda won in straights, shit happens I guess
              Comment
              • freshguy222
                SBR Sharp
                • 12-13-10
                • 421

                #147
                I know, it is just so sick what happens right now, I had three buzzer-beaters going against me in CBB and I sent 3 three teams with points into OT and lost. And I am winning 20% of my tiebreaks this year in tennis, which is still profitable, but could be so much more with 50% won.
                Comment
                • freshguy222
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 12-13-10
                  • 421

                  #148
                  hey matt,

                  an idea came to my mind earlier on how to play your picks.
                  as an example: you are saying Guillmero Garcia Lopez will not win in 3 sets.
                  I figured to take his Team Total (Player Total) Under 12.5, since there seems to be a huge chance he wins in 2 sets giving you a good chance to cash or he loses in 2 sets which would let your bet win anyway. ALso there is a small chance to cash when it does go 3 sets and he loses. What do you think?
                  GL rest of the way
                  Comment
                  • matt1216
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 10-27-11
                    • 14683

                    #149
                    Originally posted by freshguy222
                    hey matt,

                    an idea came to my mind earlier on how to play your picks.
                    as an example: you are saying Guillmero Garcia Lopez will not win in 3 sets.
                    I figured to take his Team Total (Player Total) Under 12.5, since there seems to be a huge chance he wins in 2 sets giving you a good chance to cash or he loses in 2 sets which would let your bet win anyway. ALso there is a small chance to cash when it does go 3 sets and he loses. What do you think?
                    GL rest of the way
                    Hey, it seems when I post these plays that for the most part, the favs follow the trend. They won't win in 3 sets. Berrer won in 3 sets today, but I mean it's not 100% everytime. It's hit about 90% of the time so far. I would recommend maybe playing the dog here @ + money. They seem to win the 3rd set more than the favorite does. The other hard part is if it doesn't go to 3 sets the Fav usually wipes the floor with there opponent.

                    I will ill come up with some percentages in the next few days on what side to play. It's hard to do write ups and entertain the GF at the same time lol
                    Comment
                    • matt1216
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 10-27-11
                      • 14683

                      #150
                      ATP Play #48 Memphis

                      Not Pryziensny in 3 sets. Russle hasn't been playing that well. Prsienzy has just bumped into stiff opponent but he's been playing well.

                      2-0 @2.20 is worth a shot here
                      Comment
                      • fitguy67
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 03-13-11
                        • 5082

                        #151
                        przys wins 9 of the first 12 games...then implodes, winning just 1 of the following 13 games...beyond maddening...they should check for a cabbage-like growth on the back of his neck
                        Comment
                        • matt1216
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 10-27-11
                          • 14683

                          #152
                          Originally posted by matt1216
                          ATP Play #48 Memphis

                          Not Pryziensny in 3 sets. Russle hasn't been playing that well. Prsienzy has just bumped into stiff opponent but he's been playing well.

                          2-0 @2.20 is worth a shot here
                          I shoulda taken my earlier advice. Once again not Pryz in 3 sets hits. I have to start playing the dogs when I see this. Same happened in dodig match
                          Comment
                          • Vinnie Paz
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 03-27-12
                            • 12177

                            #153
                            Originally posted by fitguy67
                            przys wins 9 of the first 12 games...then implodes, winning just 1 of the following 13 games...beyond maddening...they should check for a cabbage-like growth on the back of his neck
                            What does a growth like that indicate???(In all seriousness fit)
                            Comment
                            • DownTheLine
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 02-10-14
                              • 230

                              #154
                              Not sure how you guys can tail plays when the guys math or methods don't make any sense. GL tho, I chuckled at the I said don't take someone in 3 sets so that means to take the under, not even taking into account that 2 set matches can go over depending on the line. Whacko stuff going on in here.

                              Best way to welcome myself to the party, what up?????
                              Comment
                              • matt1216
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 10-27-11
                                • 14683

                                #155
                                Originally posted by DownTheLine
                                Not sure how you guys can tail plays when the guys math or methods don't make any sense. GL tho, I chuckled at the I said don't take someone in 3 sets so that means to take the under, not even taking into account that 2 set matches can go over depending on the line. Whacko stuff going on in here.

                                Best way to welcome myself to the party, what up?????
                                R u serious man? Right off the bat I'm telling you who won't win in 3 sets. Yes my analysis was off on a few plays but take a look throughout the entire thread... Maybe 5 plays out of 20+ havnt hit. Take the dog when's its close to a 50/50 match, when the fav isn't supposed to win in 3 sets.$$$

                                if you were reading above, these plays are just suggestions. My real plays are in my other thread.
                                Comment
                                • DownTheLine
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 02-10-14
                                  • 230

                                  #156
                                  I've read through. I actually think you know what you're talking about just fine but the way you're presenting these suggestions and their success is simply flawed. The guy above was pointing it out pretty clearly but gave up because I'm assuming he didn't feel like beating his head against a wall a bunch of times.

                                  If these are mere suggestions why are you posting a 29-13 ytd record which isn't sustainable with the system or whatever it is you're employing/suggesting? Just a mere observation not trying to ruffle any feathers.
                                  Comment
                                  • fitguy67
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 03-13-11
                                    • 5082

                                    #157
                                    Originally posted by Vinnie Paz
                                    What does a growth like that indicate???(In all seriousness fit)
                                    cultural reference to one of the great sci-fi/horror classic movies of all time..."Invasion of the Body Snatchers"...super easy to watch online for free (i'd recommend u try "project free tv"...but I'd be surprised if there isn't a super convenient youtubing of it available as well)...watch the 1956 original first...then the 1978 remake...they're both great...

                                    BTW, your avatar (of Toronto thug-mayor) makes a good icon for one of "them"
                                    Comment
                                    • matt1216
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 10-27-11
                                      • 14683

                                      #158
                                      Originally posted by DownTheLine
                                      I've read through. I actually think you know what you're talking about just fine but the way you're presenting these suggestions and their success is simply flawed. The guy above was pointing it out pretty clearly but gave up because I'm assuming he didn't feel like beating his head against a wall a bunch of times.

                                      If these are mere suggestions why are you posting a 29-13 ytd record which isn't sustainable with the system or whatever it is you're employing/suggesting? Just a mere observation not trying to ruffle any feathers.
                                      What your saying is pretty much what I'm implying. The guy above didnt understand me. I keep a record because I wanted to see how correct the trend was. when I say someone dosnt win in 3 sets it usually hits. My book has a line where I merely just fade it. It works well too. I'll be a little more clear in the future. Sorry I figured by giving who wasn't gonna win in 3 sets would help people out in here. Did u notice how I went huge on Venus Williams 2-0 sets.... One of the few ones that hit this morning... With ease. That was part of the trend. That was a 10 unit play.... First one I've done in a few weeks.
                                      Comment
                                      • thetitanlb
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 10-31-13
                                        • 780

                                        #159
                                        Let's stop this discussion and get back to talking about making money. All of is wanna do that lol
                                        Comment
                                        • matt1216
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 10-27-11
                                          • 14683

                                          #160
                                          Originally posted by thetitanlb
                                          Let's stop this discussion and get back to talking about making money. All of is wanna do that lol
                                          I would if people would stop pointing out the flaws in here. More plays to come later
                                          Comment
                                          • Vinnie Paz
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 03-27-12
                                            • 12177

                                            #161
                                            How you feel about bouchard in straights?
                                            Comment
                                            • thetitanlb
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 10-31-13
                                              • 780

                                              #162
                                              Or about ATP or WTP picks? My books don't have challenger matches
                                              Comment
                                              • matt1216
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 10-27-11
                                                • 14683

                                                #163
                                                Originally posted by Vinnie Paz
                                                How you feel about bouchard in straights?
                                                Hey bud I'll take a look tonight. She's playing with confidence.
                                                Comment
                                                • matt1216
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 10-27-11
                                                  • 14683

                                                  #164
                                                  Originally posted by thetitanlb
                                                  Or about ATP or WTP picks? My books don't have challenger matches
                                                  I'll post in a bit.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • matt1216
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 10-27-11
                                                    • 14683

                                                    #165
                                                    Play # 49

                                                    Not Kanepi in 3 sets. I seem to jinx this shit everytime when I say 2-0 sets so I'm just going to leave it at this. She has the game to win in straights
                                                    Comment
                                                    • matt1216
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 10-27-11
                                                      • 14683

                                                      #166
                                                      Play # 50

                                                      Pliskova 2-0 sets 1.57
                                                      Comment
                                                      • matt1216
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 10-27-11
                                                        • 14683

                                                        #167
                                                        Play # 51

                                                        Cibulkova 2-0 sets 1.67 *** Hammer time
                                                        Comment
                                                        • matt1216
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 10-27-11
                                                          • 14683

                                                          #168
                                                          Play # 52

                                                          *Bouchard 2-0 sets 2.10
                                                          Comment
                                                          • matt1216
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 10-27-11
                                                            • 14683

                                                            #169
                                                            Play # 53

                                                            Not svitolina in 3 sets. If you thinks this goes 3 sets, take Zakapolova ML
                                                            Comment
                                                            • matt1216
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 10-27-11
                                                              • 14683

                                                              #170
                                                              Play # 54

                                                              Petkovic 2-0 sets 1.67
                                                              Comment
                                                              • matt1216
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 10-27-11
                                                                • 14683

                                                                #171
                                                                Play # 55

                                                                Not gulbis in 3 sets.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • matt1216
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 10-27-11
                                                                  • 14683

                                                                  #172
                                                                  Play # 56

                                                                  Chardy 2-0 sets 1.67
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • matt1216
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 10-27-11
                                                                    • 14683

                                                                    #173
                                                                    Play # 57

                                                                    Parlay based on trends... Kanepi/cibulkova/Bouchard/Chardy @ 3.10
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Bet10Heinekens
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 01-10-13
                                                                      • 10567

                                                                      #174
                                                                      Originally posted by matt1216
                                                                      Play # 57

                                                                      Parlay based on trends... Kanepi/cibulkova/Bouchard/Chardy @ 3.10
                                                                      Tailed

                                                                      67143674-1 2/11/2014 3:39AM Parlay
                                                                      Tennis - 8516 J. Chardy -440 for Game
                                                                      Tennis - 8625 D. Cibulkova -505 for Game
                                                                      Tennis - 8629 K. Knapp -170 for Game
                                                                      Tennis - 8641 E. Bouchard -195 for Game
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • matt1216
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 10-27-11
                                                                        • 14683

                                                                        #175
                                                                        Originally posted by Bet10Heinekens
                                                                        Tailed

                                                                        67143674-1 2/11/2014 3:39AM Parlay
                                                                        Tennis - 8516 J. Chardy -440 for Game
                                                                        Tennis - 8625 D. Cibulkova -505 for Game
                                                                        Tennis - 8629 K. Knapp -170 for Game
                                                                        Tennis - 8641 E. Bouchard -195 for Game
                                                                        good luck to us
                                                                        Comment
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