1.27.14: [WTA PATTAYA] Mattek-Sands/Pliskova Over 20.5 [-105]
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Ugh. I had weighed taking Pliskova straight up, but thought the total was a better idea. Such is the WTA and my luck of late.
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Yup...I did the same dam thing. I was locked and ready to go with Pliskova at +4 and for some reason at the bet screen, I changed to OVER 20.5, just to cover myself.....totally didn't expect a straight sets win
I need to lay off tennis.......things have been going so good for me, and this is bringing back some horrible times prior to my last 2 months.
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Eh, I have learned that in between big tournaments or at least WTA and Challengers ... halving my bet size has saved me lots of $$$. I'd rather win small and lose small on those and save the regular wager size for tournaments where effort should be better.Comment -
Sure........something about tennis drives me insane. Maybe it has to do with how fast a match can change. For example, Mattek-Sands just needed to force a tiebreak, and had a 40-15 lead at 4-4 in the 2nd.......I'm thinking to myself, she has a chance to break twice, or simply hold serve at 5-5, and this thing goes over. Little did I expect, Pliskova wins the next 4 points at 4-4, to take a 5-4 lead. I mean, in the matter of a minute everything changes. I didn't bet big or anything, but I still hate losing any kind of unit.Comment -
And if I simply trusted my gut, and didn't think about things logically.......I'd have a free bet for tonight. Now I have to win my next 2 bets to get to that place.......the grind is maddening, haha.Comment -
Yeah, tennis more than other sports IMO ... you get kicked in the gut like this a couple times a week I think to remind you to stick to your guns.Comment -
1.27.14: [BURNIE CHALLENGER] Whittington +100Comment -
the reid/whittington match belongs in the WTA...break after break...holding serve is hardly even an option under consideration...first set will be won by whoever breaks-er-interrupts the trend and holds service...
aaaarrrgh...which happens to be reid...looked like they'd continue breaking each other till a TB...then reid comes thru with a dramatic holdLast edited by fitguy67; 01-27-14, 06:55 PM.Comment -
I was going to take Reid then let line move scare me off and I switched. Regretting it now.Comment -
Challenger usually is as close as you can get to WTA. Trying to pick some spots, been a little sluggish post-AO.Comment -
2014 Season Overall Profit: +7.73Comment -
1.28.14
WTA Pattaya: Kudryavtseva -118
WTA Paris: Knapp-Arruabarrena Over 20.5 (-125)Comment -
ATP [CHITRE CHALLENGER] Donaldson -125
Let's see what working with Roger Federer does for a youngster. He trained with Feddy in Dubai prior to the kick start of the season. He's made it through qualis here, while his opponent is flipping over from playing on clay last week.Comment -
Another clunker in Challenger play. Kid had a 3-0 lead in the 2nd and then dropped four straight games. Such is life.
2014 Season Overall Profit: +6.98Comment -
ep, any thoughts on riske/cirstea...price on cirstea seems too good to be true
gun to the head, bet the rent money i'd eat the chalk and play riske (pun not intended but fairly accurate)...
but long-term value-wise, if there's any play to make, it's cirstea at these prices...
thoughts?Last edited by fitguy67; 01-28-14, 10:38 PM.Comment -
Riske is over priced for sure, but Cirstea had played like shit before winning here, so tomato, to-mah-toe.Comment -
1.29.14
WTA Paris: Hantuchova +5 [-110]
WTA Paris: Pavlyuchenkova-Suarez Navarro Under 21 [-120]
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Tailing you on these, need to come back from some bad basketball losses this morning switching back to tennisComment -
Blah. I think I'm gonna be smart and take off until the ATP returns next week. These WTA broads drive me crazy.Comment -
Well there is one more I am going to try before trailing off until ATP. Going for some of the spot fades in WTA which is pretty much what I think I want to stick to with those chicks ..
1.30.14
ATP Paris: Knapp +115
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Bad spot to fade since Errani is def. finalist and the odds are beyond whoreshit.Comment -
That finalist has some huge asterisks next to it. She played two girls who were hurt and did not even finish one set. Basically she played two matches out of four and barely beat Suarez Navarro and lost the final which was a shit quality match from both her and Barthel.Comment -
That doesn't quite change the amount of pts she's defending, now does it?Comment -
She could be defending her snatch from gargoyles ... If someone is playing like ass coming in, it is silly to assume they are going to turn it on just because they could lose rankings points. A worldly woman such S you should know this.Comment -
It's anything but silly to assume they'll work their ass off to defend as much points as possible.Comment -
They are chicks. I assume nothing except to expect the unexpectedLast edited by EaglesPhan36; 01-30-14, 11:15 AM.Comment -
2014 Season Overall Profit: +5.38Comment -
1.31.14
[DAVIS CUP] Soeda -115
The Canadians are in Japan with low expectations as they field pretty much their B squad here with Polansky & Dancevic in singles. Dancevic is the competition in this 2nd rubber. He really does not have all that much experience in DC play with 2013 marking the first time since 2009 that he had played more than one DC match. He scored a big win over Granollers on an indoor hard surface, but that was in the comfort of Canada. On the road in the Far East, it figures to be tougher. Soeda has a ton of DC matches under his belt [30] albeit many were against lowly competition. Still, he had five matches in indoor hard courts in DC play last year with a 3-2 mark. Both are hit & miss on this surface. Pressure may be a big factor. If Nishikori wins the opening rubber, Dancevic is pretty much in a do or die spot. Last year, he had no pressure against Spain with Raonic leading Canada to a 1-0 start. Will monitor the opener as long as possible before having to book here, but if Nishikori does the job - I like Soeda in this spot with less pressure on the homeboy.
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[DAVIS CUP] Kohlschreiber -160
Call me a non-believer in the Bautista-Agut hype machine, but given this is his maiden DC match on the road and on an indoor surface that is not his best - I'll go Kohlschreiber here. Two weeks to rest and rehab the hamstring that kept him from the Aussie Open. The surface is not heavily in his favor, but experience is and I think that gets him through.
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I believe this is indoor hard... not clay.Comment -
[DAVIS CUP] Berdych-Sijsling Over 33 [-115]
Although Berdych usually gets the job done against this quality of player in DC, he has shown concentration lapses where he drops a set or sets in matches he should not. Switching fairly quickly from the rigors of the Aussie Open to Davis Cup might explain some of his February DC wobbles where he dropped a set each of the last two years against less experienced guys. Sijsling made the finals of the Heilbronn Challenger on this surface last week. A certain step up in competition level here, but if he can serve well - I think he can prolong these sets and even losing in straights, might be able to squeak this out and certainly would have a shot in four.
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Hopefully even better now that pressure is amped up on Berdych since Stepanek choked away a 2-1 lead in the 1st rubber.Comment
