EP36's Fuzzy Tennis Balls

[fitguy67]

C'mon Dah-veed, need you to grind out one winning set sucka.

very well-played (by you AND the ones with the racket in their hands)...especially liked the rather-unorthodox plays
>>>1st-set #games in Ivanovic/Bouchard match
>>>o/u #sets that just hit in the Ferrer/Berdy match

like'em cuz they hit!!...but they both "seemed" so much more likely to hit than their price indicated...that's not usually a good omen, so can't take it for granted when things actually work out...thanks for the plays EP...and thanks to the GamblingGods for the good fortune of today and the last few days as well...

BOL on the remaining action: the two Doubles matches and the Wawa +6.5 (who's gone to 5 sets with Djoker each of the 3 times they've met in GS-matches)!!!

BTW, despite all the sharp-cat love for Berdy...i just couldn't resist the +150-ish price on David so I'm still invested in the Spanish Energizer-Bunny

[Rustyglobes]

WOW I don't believe those useless Huey and Inglot Just gave away 4 break points to go 5-3 up in the final set to then lose their very next service game to love and are now trailing 4-5 a break down in the final set.....


Unbelievable

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah couple tough three set losses in doubles, but 3-0 on the bigger plays will work any day. Apparently I missed another classic between Wawrinka and Djokovic. Safe to say Stan is in the upper class of society now.

Also safe to say Roger Federer had to be smiling some where last night. Always said he might have one more chance left at a Slam, but he'd need some sort of scenario where Djokovic and/or Rafa got cleared from his path. Well, no Djokovic and Rafa struggling some with the blister. This might be his best, last chance. Of course both Berdych and Wawrinka might have something to say too. Great Slam to start the year with some drama and different faces in the semis.

[EaglesPhan36]

1.20.14: Australian Open Day 9
Parlay: Li + Berdych-Ferrer Over 3.5 Sets [-109] W
Wawrinka +6.5 [-118] W
Ivanovic-Bouchard 1st Set Over 9.5 [+110] W
ATP Doubles: Huey-Inglot -130 L
WTA Doubles: Gajdosova-Tomljanovic +195L

*Doubles plays are 0.5 unit to risk on the dog & to win on the favorite. All others, to win one unit.

Australian Open Profit Margin: +10.37

[shari91]

Roger Federer @rogerfederer 1h So deserving for Stan the man #nevergiveup #whatamatch #sohappy

[EaglesPhan36]

Rafa also had to be ecstatic.

[shari91]

Rafa also had to be ecstatic.

Right?! I bet you whatever pain he was feeling from his blisters would be well and truly forgotten now. Might've even had a glass of Champagne The fact that either Andy or Fed will be knocked out is even that much better for him. He's almost lucked out with how well this has turned out for him. Of course it's no guarantee he'll beat the winner of that match (if he gets by Dimitrov that is) but if he does, he'll be in a sweet spot in the Final now.

[EaglesPhan36]

1.21.14 [BUCARAMANGA CHALLENGER] Clezar +160

[matt1216]

I hate to say it EP but I think Rafa takes this entire tournament. His Team will find away to get him thru that Dimitrov match.Those blisters won't heal over night but look what he did to nishikori... Unless nadal has a leg or ankle injury.Although I think it would be very nieve of us to think Murray can't win this tournament. Tsonga looked like a chump vs Federer. I think Fed vs Murray goes the distance as well. I'm pumped for Berych or wawrinka, probably the best chance for either guy to win.

[EaglesPhan36]

If Murray was 100% he would be a good shot. Hell maybe he raises it a level tonight, but he has not faced any sort of test really to know his true fitness level.

Certainly hard to go against Rafa and he matches up so well with who is left in the field. Not gonna lie, most of me wants a Fed-Nadal semi one more time and to see Roger take the whole thing.

[lucasdawg]

will be waiting on both your picks bol

[fitguy67]

"Problems I'd love to have more often" department

I tailed you on your pre-tourney "Li Na to win AO" bet at +1400...

i'm sure at least some hedging is called for at this stage...

please post anything you do with your position

[EaglesPhan36]

Probably just a very small amount on Bouchard. I don't expect in her first Slam semi that she will win, but say you put $100 on Li to begin. If you put like $30 on Bouchard you would coveryour initial stakes in case of the upset. It doesn't eat up what should be a solid payout in the final if Li gets there.

[poet]

Probably just a very small amount on Bouchard. I don't expect in her first Slam semi that she will win, but say you put $100 on Li to begin. If you put like $30 on Bouchard you would coveryour initial stakes in case of the upset. It doesn't eat up what should be a solid payout in the final if Li gets there.

Now what about me? I stand to win 6,000 (on a $150 bet) if Bouchard wins the Open. Any hedging opportunity for me or do I have to hope she beats Li?

[EaglesPhan36]

Only option I could see is grabbing Li in futures maybe.

[EaglesPhan36]

BTW. ... Genie got uglier last night. Says she wants to date Bieber. Fukk off.

[poet]

BTW. ... Genie got uglier last night. Says she wants to date Bieber. Fukk off.

I know, I was very disappointed. I was hoping she would say, "the most interesting man in the world"!

[shari91]

Now what about me? I stand to win 6,000 (on a $150 bet) if Bouchard wins the Open. Any hedging opportunity for me or do I have to hope she beats Li?

You're stuck. This is what happened to me 3 years ago at the Aussie Open when I coincidentally had a massive Na Li future. Even worse, it was when I had my tennis thread and people had tailed so we were all exactly where you are now except in reverse with the players and I was so stressed as I felt a big responsibility for their bets. There's not much you can do with your bet other than do some number crunching and hop on futures like EP suggested. I tried to hedge a bit and then Li won the semis so I lost cash obviously. Then it came to the final against Clijsters and now I was stuck factoring how much I'd hedged vs how much I could still potentially win vs how much it'd cost me to hedge again. Basically a disaster. Even worse because she won the first set but Clijsters price didn't drop much. If you desperately think Eugenie is going to get beaten, go hedge to the point where you just break even. Don't put yourself in the hole. Because if you do, like I did, then you have to now chase that cash plus your initial investment plus try to make a profit if she pulls it off and she's yet again a dog in the Final. Just my advice anyway

[poet]

You're stuck. This is what happened to me 3 years ago at the Aussie Open when I coincidentally had a massive Na Li future. Even worse, it was when I had my tennis thread and people had tailed so we were all exactly where you are now except in reverse with the players and I was so stressed as I felt a big responsibility for their bets. There's not much you can do with your bet other than do some number crunching and hop on futures like EP suggested. I tried to hedge a bit and then Li won the semis so I lost cash obviously. Then it came to the final against Clijsters and now I was stuck factoring how much I'd hedged vs how much I could still potentially win vs how much it'd cost me to hedge again. Basically a disaster. Even worse because she won the first set but Clijsters price didn't drop much. If you desperately think Eugenie is going to get beaten, go hedge to the point where you just break even. Don't put yourself in the hole. Because if you do, like I did, then you have to now chase that cash plus your initial investment plus try to make a profit if she pulls it off and she's yet again a dog in the Final. Just my advice anyway

I actually think she has a good chance to beat Na Li. All the pressure is on Na Li, and I've seen her crack before. Problem is, even if she wins she will probably be a heavy underdog in the finals.

[matt1216]

I actually think she has a good chance to beat Na Li. All the pressure is on Na Li, and I've seen her crack before. Problem is, even if she wins she will probably be a heavy underdog in the finals.

U watch li NA? Pennetta couldn't touch her returns with a 5 foot paddle.

[shari91]

I actually think she has a good chance to beat Na Li. All the pressure is on Na Li, and I've seen her crack before. Problem is, even if she wins she will probably be a heavy underdog in the finals.

I think she has a bit of a chance too but again that's exactly what happened to me. Li made it to the Final and suddenly we all had a massive future and not much of a hedging opportunity other than laying out way more cash on the hedge than some felt comfortable with or even had at their disposal. And we were now down cash from our hedge in the semis so we were trying to make that back too. That's the fricken problem with these bets! What do you do if she beats Li and is now a massive dog from now on? Stuck. Unless you have a massive bankroll that will absorb the lost hedges I think you're hooped. Again though I agree with EP in that the futures might be your best chance.

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't really see that much pressure on Li. She's been here, done that at this stage of the tournament. If it was a final, maybe more pressure - but in this situation, young players are usually the ones who crack unless they are proven to be elite talents.

Roger Federer started somewhere with a break-thru. Genie could be an elite talent who breaks the typical mold too, but I think pressure is equal at-best - no more or less really on either player. If it was Azarenka, I'd say all the pressure is on Vika because she was gifted another Serena-free road to a Final.

[EaglesPhan36]

1.21.14: [MAUI CHALLENGER QUALIS] Kosakowski -155
This is my guy from Aussie Open qualis. Paying attention to him working back from injury. He has been a busy body in prep work early on this season. Jenkins is on par with him talent wise perhaps, but I like what the former UCLA product has done to start the year and he was one step from making the main draw in Melbourne before falling to Jimmy Wang.

[EaglesPhan36]

1.21.14: Australian Open Day 10
Parlay: Halep +1.5 sets & Federer-Murray Over 3.5 Sets [-115]
ATP Doubles: Paes-Stepanek -140

Combing over another possible doubles play, but these are the ones I am playing for certain. "To win one unit" for both.

[EaglesPhan36]

Not my day for Challenger glory. Clezar got injured at some point in the match after taking the 1st set TB, he lost eight straight games and retired.

Kosakowski playing like crapola. Thems the Challenger breaks fo ya.

Overall Profit Margin: +3.96 (Australian Open not factored in yet)

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

Not my day for Challenger glory. Clezar got injured at some point in the match after taking the 1st set TB, he lost eight straight games and retired.

Kosakowski playing like crapola. Thems the Challenger breaks fo ya.

Overall Profit Margin: +3.96 (Australian Open not factored in yet)

broke back. let's see what happens!

[EaglesPhan36]

Not expecting much, but sometimes the old pre-sulk on a bet does work wonders.

[EaglesPhan36]

Alive for a 3rd set.

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

he's got all the momentum! it's his game to lose now!

[Shifty107]

EP how the FUKK did Gajdasova and Tomljanovic not win that match. Unbelievable choke job in the 3rd set. Up 4-1 and serving for 5-1 and end up losing 5 straight games

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

broke him again in the third. up 3-zip!

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah epic toilet training for Jarmere in the 3rd. Nice!

[EaglesPhan36]

EP how the FUKK did Gajdasova and Tomljanovic not win that match. Unbelievable choke job in the 3rd set. Up 4-1 and serving for 5-1 and end up losing 5 straight games

On the wrong side of the choke. That third set was pathetic. All but one service game, one team or the other had a chance to break.

[EaglesPhan36]

Not my day for Challenger glory. Clezar got injured at some point in the match after taking the 1st set TB, he lost eight straight games and retired.

Kosakowski playing like crapola. Thems the Challenger breaks fo ya.

Overall Profit Margin: +3.96 (Australian Open not factored in yet)

Recalculating for the Kosakowski WIN!

Overall Profit Margin: +5.23

[ctny85]

EP where do you book your total sets plays? My book only offers games 42.5 total at -115 both ways thinking I must pass on that. Good luck with o3.5 that looks sharp.