EP36's Fuzzy Tennis Balls

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-17-14, 12:47 AM

Break for Berdych. Consolidate this shit.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-17-14, 12:52 AM

Cripes Berdshit. Put this game away fukkface.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-17-14, 12:57 AM

Huge double break for Berdy. 6-4, 6-2. Got a shot in hell still.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-17-14, 01:21 AM

There's the break Berdshit. Consolidate and we got a shot to win.

**Romanov** · 01-17-14, 01:26 AM

rooting for you

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-17-14, 01:28 AM

Home stretch. Be nice to just get a break and end it here and not even fukk with serving again.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-17-14, 01:32 AM

And we're home on the under.

**Bumdeal** · 01-17-14, 01:32 AM

**Bumdeal** · 01-17-14, 01:33 AM

Anderson giving me hope now..

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-17-14, 01:51 AM

Got at least a push now.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-17-14, 01:55 AM

Looks like a push.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-17-14, 01:59 AM

... Or ....

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-17-14, 02:02 AM

Anderson! We got a winner if they finish.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-17-14, 02:03 AM

Adding...
Querrey -175

**16johnnymac** · 01-17-14, 02:09 AM

T. Robredo
+2½ -285
+165

R. Gasquet
-2½ +235
-190

Need advice please should I play robredo + 165 / +2 1/2
Or gasquet -190
New to tennis thank you for your advice!!

Jmac

**ctny85** · 01-17-14, 02:14 AM

Um he's playing querrey why not just go w that?

**oBaMa_MaNiA** · 01-17-14, 02:29 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I like him in that one. Wish the price was a little better, but I don't really thing Fognini had done anything special this tournament and this is not his surface. Some will bag on Gulbis last round, but Querrey played a solid match. I just think it's important for Sam to start fast and get ahead. Always a chance someone can lose on any given day ... but on this surface, I do like Querrey. Just wish the price was about 25 cents shorter.

thanks mate. cut down the bet to 3k from 4k.

good luck with your plays

**PAYTON20** · 01-17-14, 02:46 AM

Is a sucker play to parlay Querrey and Gasquet?

Any input appreciated

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-17-14, 08:17 AM

Sam fails again. Sheesh. Good day overall but what a poor finish.

**Tsonga** · 01-17-14, 10:20 AM

Things turned out well in the end! Too bad I wasn't checking your posts out earlier...i would have cast some doubt on that Querrey pick...i had Sam against Fognini in my tennischannel pool and thought that Fognini would have the variety and game to take out Sam.

Was surprised to see Anderson come through! I was thinking it was a lost cause...i have had some parlays ruined when they looked good the day before. I had 3 guys left to finish out a parlay and they were all up 2-1 sets. They all lost 3-2. Every one of them. Verdasco/DelPo/Cilic.

Thought Berd man would come through last night...

I hit a 50 to win 364 which helped to balance out some losses last night. I had Bouchard,Anderson, Berdych -9, Robredo to win a set, Stosur to win a set.

Also took Istomin at +9.5 for a decent number.

I have this one still in play for 10 bucks. Not a big deal if it goes down, but it would be nice. It's a 6 leg parlay to win 191.
Half of it is through (Berdych -9, Robredo to win a set, Stosur/Anna over 22) - now i need a Jankovic win, Cornet +6, and C. Suarez Navarro/D. Cibulkova (O 21).

I tend to stay away from all women's tennis, but I took a chance on a bigger parlay here.

**Tsonga** · 01-17-14, 10:25 AM

I am really looking forward to tonight with Milos/Dimitrov. I have Milos taking this in the pool and think that he is a 60/40 fav to me. Over is up to 43.5 but I think that isn't too bad of an option.

Nadal/Monfils should be interesting to watch. I think taking a Nadal handicap and watching it live might be an option. Monfils should give him a good run, but he will have his mental lapses that will probably hurt the handicap. I don't see Monfils winning more than 1/10 matches against Nadal in Australia.

Tsonga/Simon. -I am no fan of Simon and would love to see his tourney end here. I see Tsonga in 3 or 4.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-17-14, 03:02 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

1.15.14: Australian Open Day 5
ATP Doubles: Nieminen-Tursunov -105 W
ATP Doubles: Mirnyi-Youzhny +140 W
F.Mayer -185 W
ERV-Anderson Over 41 [-112] W
Berdych-Dzumhur Under 28 [-125] W
Querrey -175L

Australian Open Profit Margin: +1.76

Back on the right side of the ledger. Will be mixing up bet sizes between one unit or half a unit. All will be marked as such.

**sluggy1616** · 01-17-14, 03:07 PM

Hey EP,

How many years have you been capping tennis?

You do a great job!!! I wish I'd been doubling down on the bets we have in common. They have all been winners during the A/O

**lucullus** · 01-17-14, 03:14 PM

Nice call on the Anderson over, really good pick

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-17-14, 04:15 PM

Originally posted by sluggy1616

Hey EP,

How many years have you been capping tennis?

You do a great job!!! I wish I'd been doubling down on the bets we have in common. They have all been winners during the A/O

Man I'm not exactly sure. At least 3-4, maybe more.

**fitguy67** · 01-17-14, 04:31 PM

Hey EP, i posted this over at HC's and Matt's as well...but i'd definitely like your input (you guys are my "holy trinity"

for tennis-betting)
____________

#62, B-Agut has dominated #28 in H2H (4-1 in matches, 9-1 in sets, 63-44 in games) and 6-3, 6-4 just days ago in Auckland...

even at current -200ish level, my uneducated eye sees some value in Agut

i think this is where it'd be useful to consider other ways to play this as well, such as Agut, 1st @ 165-ish
or perhaps "Agut -a few games" at closer to evens
______
what's your take on this situation where the higher ranked player (something the more-casual GS-betting public would notice more than the H2H methinks) has been owned by lower-ranked one?

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-17-14, 04:44 PM

It's rather interesting if you break it down. The last two meetings have come at pre-Australian Open tournaments when a lot of lesser known guys have the bigger motivation and a guy like Paire could be just looking to get through healthy.

The first two meetings were on indoor courts before Paire really came onto the scene has a player. Bautista-Agut if memory serves me has always had a pretty decent indoor hard court record.

Some people said that Paire had some sort of injury earlier this year, but I could find no indication of that. I don't know. I said it in another thread, something keeps telling me Paire here. Maybe it's fading a player after a signature win.

**poet** · 01-17-14, 05:04 PM

This is what read this morning, regarding a possible injury:

"Both of these men played five setters in their previous rounds, but Paire has been struggling with a knee injury for some time and had treatment on it again during his win over Nick Kyrgios, who by the end was barely able to move himself."

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-17-14, 05:25 PM

1.16.14: Australian Open Day 6
Radwanska-Pavlyuchenkova Over 20.5 [-120]
Murray-Lopez Over 36.5 [-116]
Nishikori-Young Under 33 [-115]
Mugruza +105
Suarez-Navarro +175
ATP Doubles: Benneteau-ERV -155

Dogs are 0.5 unit plays. Everything else to win one unit.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-17-14, 08:08 PM

Should have kept Paire over Suarez-Navarro. She's getting a beatdown. Not exactly sure what I smoking there.

**fitguy67** · 01-17-14, 08:58 PM

Glad i caught that one before Paire grew

, changed his name to Navarro...and the price jumped 2 cents to compensate for his lack of WTA experience...

**lucasdawg** · 01-17-14, 09:57 PM

any angle on nadal match ep?

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-17-14, 10:09 PM

Nah. I think Nadal wins, but I don't see any numbers there that look overly smart one way or the other. Monfils obviously is capable of flashes of brilliance, they just don't come often against Nadal - but you never know.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-17-14, 10:11 PM

Adding...
Paire +173

Sometimes you gotta be stupid and go with your gut. I'm on an Island with this one I am sure, but I cannot shake it so I shall lose alone most likely.

**fitguy67** · 01-17-14, 10:26 PM

there's at least a population of two on that island...your post at 4:44pm, combined with my distaste for chalk got me...bol to the inhabitants of Paire-island...

now that I think of it, one of the good twitter guys, SoMoneySports is also on him--and Muguraza (and Dimitrov over the giraffe, as well)