EP36's Fuzzy Tennis Balls

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-13-14, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

1.12.14: Australian Open Day 1
Gasquet-Guez Under 30 W [-130]
Zvonareva-Dellacqua Over 21 L [-116]
Struff +295 L
Ebden +157 W
Groth +185 L
Rosol -105 L
Zheng +155 W
Vickery +225 L
Goerges +235 W

*All plays for the 1st & 2nd rounds unless otherwise noted are either to win 0.5 unit on prices -101 or above or risking 0.5 unit on anything +100 or better.

Australian Open Profit Margin: +0.65

Just going to track the Aussie Open profit or lack thereof for the two weeks and then add or subtract it into the season total since most people only care what you did lately anywho. Only one real disappointment was Rosol choking the 5th set away when he was up a break and he also blew the 4th set TB when he was up 5-1. Otherwise, squeezing out profit on Day 1 is glorious.

**Hardcoar** · 01-13-14, 03:06 PM

Rosol choking and sucking some ass... what else is new??

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-13-14, 05:36 PM

1.13.14: Australian Open Day 2
Kokkinakis +155
Klahn +405
Dancevic +205
Kyrgios -115
Kavcic +245
Bautista-Agut/Smyczek Over 35.5 [-120]

**Hardcoar** · 01-13-14, 05:40 PM

Igor to be rocked by the Kokk??

**tevari** · 01-13-14, 05:43 PM

I hope Klahn doesn't fukk my 3 teamer. Need Dimitrov to show up. Best of luck anyway.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-13-14, 05:48 PM

Probably unlikely that Klahn wins, but Dimitrov hasn't exactly taken off under Rasheed yet. That and they may be working on his fitness to have him in shape to play best of fives - but in this heat, gonna be a big test for a guy who has been weak in the knees before.

I'd be happy as long as Dancevic or Klahn win. My projection was that Dimitrov or Paire would underachieve and lose their 1st match.

**tevari** · 01-13-14, 06:54 PM

They're both flakey. Hopefully no puking on the part of Grigor today.

**Hardcoar** · 01-13-14, 07:00 PM

I'm personally liking Klohwn a lot more than Dancevic.

**Cessation** · 01-13-14, 07:31 PM

Didn't mind the agut over so was following the flucs on pinny before I decided. The over jumped from 35.5 games to 33.5 games in one hit. Don't know if pinny just move totals on ml action as that came in quite a bit too. In the heat I will stay out. Good luck ep.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-13-14, 07:47 PM

Totals are always a crap shoot at Slams because they move the lines around quite a bit. Sometimes you get helped waiting, but usually they move too much on what you like if you wait too long. Not the case on this one, so whatever's clever.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-13-14, 09:18 PM

Klahn doing a good enough job to keep it tight, but he can't get anything off Dimitrov's serve, so any time he gets broken = set over. Only shot is to get the 4th set to a TB or hope Dimitrov takes the changeover to dream of Masha's deadfish f-style.

**VegasInsider** · 01-13-14, 09:21 PM

Thoughts on Peng -3 or -170??

Heart says she cruises, head saying it could be a 3-setter. I like some of the stuff I've seen from Nara.

Maybe O20.5 (-110)??

Really hate everything on the board tonight besides this match.

**goblue24** · 01-13-14, 09:23 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

1.13.14: Australian Open Day 2
Kokkinakis +155
Klahn +405
Dancevic +205
Kyrgios -115
Kavcic +245
Bautista-Agut/Smyczek Over 35.5 [-120]

FYI....this total is down to 33.5 (-110) at 5dimes.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-13-14, 09:25 PM

Already booked it, so it is what it is.

**goblue24** · 01-13-14, 09:26 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Already booked it, so it is what it is.

It's gonna be a winner is what it's gonna be!

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-13-14, 10:11 PM

Adding...
Hewitt-Seppi Over 36 [-120]

**sluggy1616** · 01-13-14, 10:25 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Adding...
Hewitt-Seppi Over 36 [-120]

Gonna tail you EP. Was a little worried about how hard Seppi would fight in this heat but he made it to the rd of 16 at last years tourney so he is defending a massive amount of points. He better be willing to fight in the heat!!!

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-13-14, 10:43 PM

I think it will be competitive. Neither is overly powerful, so there will be some breaks. Have to remember the heat works on both guys, no matter where you're from. Still no clue why they force these players to play in the heat like this. 10-fing-8 .. on court temps probably near 125 or 130 on the feet.

**sluggy1616** · 01-13-14, 10:48 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I think it will be competitive. Neither is overly powerful, so there will be some breaks. Have to remember the heat works on both guys, no matter where you're from. Still no clue why they force these players to play in the heat like this. 10-fing-8 .. on court temps probably near 125 or 130 on the feet.

in the next few rounds I'll look to fade those guys that have long matches today & tomorrow

**sluggy1616** · 01-13-14, 10:52 PM

Originally posted by sluggy1616

in the next few rounds I'll look to fade those guys that have long matches today & tomorrow

weather forecast for Melbourne. Have to keep match previous match length in mind going forward. Will the books make this adjustment??

[COLOR=#BABABA !important]Tue[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#878787 !important]108°[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#BABABA !important]79°[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#BABABA !important]Wed[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#878787 !important]106°[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#BABABA !important]68°[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#BABABA !important]Thu[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#878787 !important]109°[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#BABABA !important]75°[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#BABABA !important]Fri[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#878787 !important]108°[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#BABABA !important]59°[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#BABABA !important]Sat[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#878787 !important]68°[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#BABABA !important]54°[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#BABABA !important]Sun[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#878787 !important]70°[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#BABABA !important]54°[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#BABABA !important]Mon[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#878787 !important]86°[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#BABABA !important]54°[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#BABABA !important]Tue[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#878787 !important]82°[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#BABABA !important]57°[/COLOR]

**dRavidC** · 01-13-14, 10:52 PM

yeah i wouldn't be too worried about seppi's pre-season performances. he didn't have a really good pre-season last year either and played well in the aussie open. I think we see a 4 set match at the very least. hewitt is a perfect 5 and 0 which is why we have some inflated prices on hewitt. I think hewitt pulls through in the end but i'll be a scrap.

**sluggy1616** · 01-13-14, 10:53 PM

Originally posted by sluggy1616

weather forecast for Melbourne. Have to keep match previous match length in mind going forward. Will the books make this adjustment??

[COLOR=#BABABA !important]Tue[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#878787 !important]108°[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#BABABA !important]79°[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#BABABA !important]Wed[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#878787 !important]106°[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#BABABA !important]68°[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#BABABA !important]Thu[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#878787 !important]109°[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#BABABA !important]75°[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#BABABA !important]Fri[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#878787 !important]108°[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#BABABA !important]59°[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#BABABA !important]Sat[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#878787 !important]68°[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#BABABA !important]54°[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#BABABA !important]Sun[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#878787 !important]70°[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#BABABA !important]54°[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#BABABA !important]Mon[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#878787 !important]86°[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#BABABA !important]54°[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#BABABA !important]Tue[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#878787 !important]82°[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#BABABA !important]57°[/COLOR]

sorry did not post right - its stays +106 degrees thru friday

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-13-14, 11:57 PM

Some day I will learn to steer clear of Dancevic. I take him I think in every hard court Slam when he is a dog and he follows about the same song & dance. Looks like he's gonna run out and take a lead and then forgets how to serve. At least Thunder Boy is killing it. Kyrgios is a guy you best watch. Great serve.

**beermankirk** · 01-14-14, 12:05 AM

Dancevic passed out, and comes back....

**beermankirk** · 01-14-14, 12:06 AM

might be worth noting that court 6 there is the hottest court and has had the retirements occuring there... no shade...

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-14-14, 12:06 AM

Maybe he got some Canadian weed. Kyrgios urg. Blew a break lead.

**beermankirk** · 01-14-14, 12:08 AM

hah canadian weed... Im in Vancouver CANADA...

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-14-14, 12:23 AM

Yes! Master of the Heat Blaz Kavcic! Steps retires.

**sluggy1616** · 01-14-14, 12:23 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Adding...
Hewitt-Seppi Over 36 [-120]

glad seppi got that 1st set!!!

**Bumdeal** · 01-14-14, 12:31 AM

Stepanek retired!

Edit: errr thread didn't update for me. old news oops

**dRavidC** · 01-14-14, 12:42 AM

By the looks of things think id rather Hewitt of won that 1st set

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-14-14, 12:44 AM

Hewitt will get willed to a set (I hope). Smyczek doesn't look like he's gonna help a damn bit unless he quits.

**sluggy1616** · 01-14-14, 12:49 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Hewitt will get willed to a set (I hope). Smyczek doesn't look like he's gonna help a damn bit unless he quits.

This is only my 2nd grand slam betting so this is only a guess. I wouldn't be surprised if the books had conference call to figure out which match they could set up to make it look very attractive for heavy chalk parley people, that would blow up said parleys later when the "huge" under dog somehow wins.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-14-14, 12:59 AM

Hewitt was heavily over valued - did not really take an expert to see that. I am sure lots got sucked in on the home field advantage so to speak. Pretty much an every year occurrence with Hewitt at the Aussie Open. He's usually one of the most backed players. I have had a hard time finding two chalk players per day to try to parlay, so I have been skipping even thinking about it - the more you have to "look" to find a parlay filler, the worse the idea seems to be.

On top of all that - the weather is tricky as hell because no one knows how any of these players will respond, unless they have a track record.

**Ms. Degen** · 01-14-14, 01:09 AM

Cilic + Cirstea is a good parlay.