EP36's Fuzzy Tennis Balls

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm pink where it counts.

[EaglesPhan36]

1.22.14: Australian Open Day 11
Parlay: Llodra-Mahut + Berdych/Wawrinka Over 3.5 Sets [+113]

[Hardcoar]

I'm pink where it counts.

Then you're racist.

[EaglesPhan36]

Takes one to ID one. Thanks boss.

[Hardcoar]

Takes one to ID one. Thanks boss.

[EaglesPhan36]

My doubles mojo is no mo.


Now I have to debate playing over 3.5 sets by itself.

[EaglesPhan36]

Adding...
Berdych-Wawrinka Over 3.5 Sets [-220]
Risking 1.10 units to win 0.50

[Hardcoar]

As much as I'm not touching those odds with a forty-foot pole, I'd be very surprised to see a straight sets victory in that one.

[EaglesPhan36]

1.23.14 [BUCARAMUNGA CHALLENGER] Andreozzi +100

[EaglesPhan36]

2014 Season Overall Profit: +11.80

That's the whole season with Aussie Open picks included. Don't recall being this far up early in the season in at least two years. Enjoy it while it lasts!

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP AUSTRALIAN OPEN PREVIEW

NADAL QUARTER
Nadal is the #1 overall seed and tops out this quarter. On the bottom of the quarter is the dangerous 5th seed, Del Potro. Nadal opens against Tomic which is sure to be one of the highlight matches for the media in the opening round. They met once back in the AO in 2011 when Nadal outsted Tomic in straight sets. Tomic has done some nice prep work in Sydney this week and is relatively solid form. Rafa warmed up by winning Doha. Not expecting the straight sets whooping and if there's a better time to catch Nadal, it is probably early after a layoff. Tomic may trouble Rafa and push him to play an additional set or two, but the overall effort level of Rafa should trump the Aussie. After that, Rafa is free until a potential third rounder with Monfils - whom he beat in Doha for the title. Nishikori & Seppi are the other seeds in this top half of the quarter. Both draw Aussies that could end their runs on Day 1. Most will expect in fact that Hewitt should beat Seppi. Matosevic for all his problems of winning matches in Australia, has righted that ship in preps for the AO this year. He'll have a harder time pulling the upset, but not impossible. In Del Potro's half, there are a lot of talented but underachieving youngsters to watch. Dimitrov & Paire and then the one youngster who has fared better, but still is looking for his Grand Slam moment - Milos Raonic. The draw sets up for a Raonic-Del Potro 4th round match, but there's plenty in the way of that. Delpo should cruise to the 3rd, but I am intrigued if we get to see last year's Aussie Juniors Champ Kyrgios advance that far. He's got a booming serve that can keep him in any match. Kyrgios has a good match-up against Becker to open and then could face the mercurial Paire in the 2nd. Raonic should have few worries getting to the 3rd, although his display at the Hopman Cup - especially the loss to little know Panfil is something to note. Still, expect better from him and a nice draw. Dimitrov is his likely 3rd round opponent, but will Dimitrov harness his talent finally and make a Slam run? New coach Roger Rasheed is in charge of having him fit to play in these best of fives & mental stronger. Will it show early though or will he flop again? Klahn is tricky in the opener and he would face Lu or a qualifier in the 2nd. Something tells me that if he makes it through to face Raonic, he's going to make it difficult in one or both of those matches. The more proven commodities of Nadal & Del Potro look like the likely QFs match-up, but neither is without a few landmines to navigate. Del Potro showed last year that he is definitely not immune to an upset. He's still that guy that most highlight outside of Nadal, Djokovic and Murray when talking about someone who could win a Slam currently.

1st Round Upset Watch
Kokkinakis over Sijsling +145
D.Young over Haase +110
Paire (Dancevic +220) or Dimitrov (Klahn +360) to Lose

MURRAY QUARTER
Murray is the 4th seed and tops this quarter, while the GOAT looms in the bottom as the 6th seed, Roger Federer. Even in losing in Kooyong, I think Murray showed a bit more bite to his game after a really disappointing opening to the season, when he lost to Florian Mayer in a match he had under control. By all accounts, he believes himself fit from back surgery, but this tournament will tell. He opens against Soeda and looks reasonable to get to the 4th round unless his 2nd match is against a sneaky qualifier. Isner and Kohlschreiber - are you kidding me - are geared up for potentially another epic meeting. Who says draws are RANDOM. Isner is the 13th seed. Kohlschreiber 21st. If form holds, they meet in the 3rd round for the third straight year in a Grand Slam. It would also mark their 2nd meeting this year as Isner won in 3 @ Auckland. That looks a pretty good likelihood to occur. The winner could pose a threat to Murray if his physical state deteoriates with match play over the course of the AO. It's hard to say if that will happen until we see him play in these grueling conditions. A surprise quarterfinalist - namely not Murray - definitely would not be a large surprise here given the unknowns going into this. On the bottom, Federer did some nice prep work leading up to the AO. A loss to Hewitt in the Brisbane Final shouldn't be frowned upon too much. Hewitt is in great form and obviously in another gear on home soil. Don't be surprised if Federer gets a push in his opener with Duckworth. The home standing Aussie put on one of the better shows last year against compatriot Ben Mitchell in the 1st round and then another brilliant five setter with Kavcic that he lost 10-8 in the decier. He's got enough of a serve that if it's consistent, he can stay in sets with Federer and try to exploit any tension in the GOAT's game. I'd expect him to pass through, but with Federer's leaky 2013 still fresh - nothing should shock and the crowd likely will be divided, rooting for both and for a long match. Stepanek or Kavcic would be waiting next and the 3rd round could bring back Wimbledon nemesis Stakhovsky (RANDOM HAH) or Verdasco. Tsonga leads the charge in the other part of the bottom of this qyarter. He should coast into the 3rd round where Marin Cilic looks a realistic shot to make it through as an unseeded player. Cilic has looked good in his return from last year's doping suspension. A new coach and outlook will be tested. Granollers in the opener will definitely give him some tricky looks and if he survives that, it's Brands or Simon. Simon though looks as if he's struggling with fitness already this year. He complained of leg issues to start the year and then retired on a bum ankle in the Kooyong Exhibition in his 2nd match. He's on Upset Alert. Federer & Tsonga is the likely 4th round match-up if all holds to form. I think Roger needs at least that run to build confidence for the year. Cilic might have something to say about Tsonga being there though. This quarter has the familiar names and a healthy Andy Murray could squeeze through, but I think Federer, Tsonga & Cilic can all do something if the chips fall right for them.

1st Round Upset Watch
Berrer over Llodra -135
Brands over Simon -145
Kavcic over Stepanek +315

FERRER QUARTER
As usual, Ferrer's quarter looks like a free-for-all where you can see a surprise semifinalist getting through. That's also the situation where the Ultimate Grinder seems to always find himself in position to prove the world wrong and make it there himself. He's got a very difficult road though, but it will be pointed out that although there are talented guys laying in his path - all have the same fatal flaw, their brains that could get in the way of an Upset Fest. Ferrer should be fine in the 1st, but the 2nd round could provide a test with Steve Johnson or Mannarino waiting. In the heat though, I would expect Ferrer to grind them out, although any sort of cool day in Melbourne could give the underdog a shot. Johnson in particular has a big game to trouble opponents, but has lacked consistency. He would need that x10 to beat Ferrer. In the bracket above Ferrer, two very dangerous, but enigmatic players. Chardy & Dolgopolov. They could play each other in the 2nd round for the right to meet Ferrer in the 3rd. Both did okay in preps and both have had big moments in this tournament. Chardy just last year in KO-ing Del Potro and making a QF. Dolgopolov did that trick in 2011, but has always had tough match-ups that blocked him from a repeat performance. In 2012, he lost a thriller to Tomic in the 3rd round and last year he drew Monfils in the 1st round. Youzhny is the 14th seed in the other part of this half of the draw along with the big Pole, Jerzy Janowicz. The Russian suffered from illness to start the year, but should be fit to go here. He could face two straight Germans in the talented youngster Struff and Florian Mayer in a possible 2nd round match. Jerzy gets the Australian Open Playoff Winner from the home country - Adam Thompson. He's got some skill as show in X-play and Jerzy suffered last year from high expectations and physical ailments. He looked poor in his prep match and Thompson's match against Gasquet earlier should have given the kid some confidence. Whomever survives draws a Spaniard, Ramos or Andujar. Ramos I like more on this surface and he can trouble better players with his lefty game, but his consistency on this surface will likely find him short if he moves past Andujar. Bottom half of this quarter to me looks like the survivor of that 3rd round match - Ferrer, Dolgpolov or Chardy being in a good spot to make a deep run. On top, it's Berdych as the 7th seed. The Berd has been the Word in the making the QFs three straight years in the AO. His draw looks like a 4th straight is quite possible. Haas is the seed opposite him. Will he continue to be ageless in his play or will Father Time finally grab the German? He could have two toughies to open with Garcia-Lopez to open and potentially Roger-Vasselin in the 2nd. Anderson and Dodig are also seeds in this part of the draw. Both can have their moments, but did not show much in preps. The Karlovic-Dodig opener should be a serve fest if both men are fit. I'm hard pressed to go against Berdych getting to the QFs and the draw could fall to him being a better shot than ever to get to the Semis. The fun part will be seeing if Ferrer once again proves that desire often beats the better talent.

1st Round Upset Watch
Thompson over Janowicz +265
Struff over Youzhny +270
Karlovic over Dodig +125

DJOKOVIC QUARTER
The final quarter features Djokovic as the two seed and Wawrinika as the #8. Djokovic to me looks like he has a fairly routine route to the quarterfinals. An opener against Lacko than a 2nd round match against a guy who will prefer cllay better. The 3rd round could at least entertain with Baghdatis, Istomin or Tursunov looking to be the match-up. Would be tough to expect any of them to match his level for five sets though. Fognini is seeded 15th and would be the 4th round match-up if the seeding holds. Gulbis is the other seed at #23. There's a lot of solid tennis pros in this section of the draw, but none that should fancy themselves to knock off Djokovic. Some very competitive first rounders though as a result: Sela-Nieminen, Giraldo-Querrey, Baghdatis-Istomin. Very bettable matches and all could provide some entertainment. The top half of the quarter could be locked onto a Wawrinka-Gasquet matchup in the 4th round if seeding holds. Stan should be rested after wisely pulling out of the Kooyong Exhibition with some fatigue after travel from Chennai to Australia. Some big servers in his section will force him to play well, but he looks suited to the 3rd at minimum. Gasquet's back injury seems to have healed up a bit since Doha and that could leave him ripe for a run. A qualifier to open then Davydenko or Kubot. Robredo is the other seed near him with Benneteau and Rosol also sprinkled in here. If healthy, this seems a great spot for Gasquet to get to another QF. He made the 4th round two years running, but always had a tough match to get to a quarter - that may not change this year with Wawrinka in the way. Would be a great popcorn match of backhands. Overall, Djokovic, Gasquet or Wawrinka look best suited to coming out of this quarter with Djokovic an obvious and deserved favorite.

1st Round Upset Watch
Groth over Pospisil +175
Ebden over Mahut +145

ATP/WTA Futures Watch
Kerber to Win Quarter +500
Federer to Win Quarter +275
Berdych to Win Quarter +175
Na Li to Win AO +1475

Very underestimated part of making tennis money still to me is futures. If you have a book that has these for all the tournaments - 5Dimes has futures for most every WTA/ATP main level tournament, worth looking at them every week. We all get caught up in the grind of daily picking, but if you can look over a draw and see some good shots to take .. often can make up for your daily picking. I know it has saved my ass plenty from tournaments where I did terrible otherwise.

Pardon my gloat. I don't usually get this many in position to win or have won already, but I like to look back and see if my pre tourney reads were worth a shit!

[EaglesPhan36]

1.23.14: [MAUI CHALLENGER] Parlay: Kudla + Klahn [-127]

[fitguy67]

Andreozzi comes thru late!

[EaglesPhan36]

Yea that one looked rough for a bit. He was terrible in the 1st set after he opened up 2-0.

[EaglesPhan36]

1.23.14: Australian Open Day 12
Nadal-Federer Over 3.5 sets [-215]
Juniors: Kozlov -110

*All bets "to win 0.5 unit"

[EaglesPhan36]

Kudla is gonna gash this parlay.

[Rustyglobes]

parlay cashes, well done

[EaglesPhan36]

I think you misread a result. Kudla lost. Klahn won. No parlay casher. Weighing the nightcap in Maui between Smyczek and Stevie J, but digging for some info.

[matt1216]

Kudla is gonna gash this parlay.

EP, what is with Kudla? He seems like he has a ton of talent, but he drops the ball everytime I wager him?? Is he well off?? Wondering if he just plays for fun

[matt1216]

I think you misread a result. Kudla lost. Klahn won. No parlay casher. Weighing the nightcap in Maui between Smyczek and Stevie J, but digging for some info.

Steve johnson lost a tight match vs Klahn in AUS. @+105, there seems like a little bit of value

[EaglesPhan36]

It's a Challenger, so who ever knows about motivation. I don't think some of these kids get that doing well in Challengers elevates the ranking and can get you closer and closer to not toiling in qualis for ATP level stuff.

[EaglesPhan36]

1.23.14: Australian Open Day 12
Parlay: [Mixed Doubles] Mirza-Tecau + Nadal-Federer Over 3.5 sets [+119]
Juniors: Kozlov -110

*Juniors bet is to win 0.5 unit. Parlay is risking one unit.

Looked over some things and paired up the Sets play with some Mixed Dubs.

[shari91]

Did you bet on this match? From Kyrgios' blog

"Between interviews, chat show appearances and media requests I managed to make my mixed doubles debut with Arina Rodionova, it was good fun and a new experience for me, she kept telling me to smack the ball at the other girl but I didn’t have it in me to do it, perhaps when I’m a bit more hardened to the tour?"

[EaglesPhan36]

No. LoL. Was that an exhibition match or something? I was amazed the match I watched with Gajdosova-Ebden against Matkowski-Peschke. Matkowski on one point plowed three massive forehands at Gajdosova. She took them all like a champ with volleys and they won the point and got a standing O.

Already seeing my doubles voodoo appearing again. I thought about rolling with the Aussies tonight, but Mirza-Tecau had been so solid and served so much better. So far they look like both should be in the women's ITF serving.

[STAY STRONG]

Kozlov getting raped.

[shari91]

No. LoL. Was that an exhibition match or something? I was amazed the match I watched with Gajdosova-Ebden against Matkowski-Peschke. Matkowski on one point plowed three massive forehands at Gajdosova. She took them all like a champ with volleys and they won the point and got a standing O.

Already seeing my doubles voodoo appearing again. I thought about rolling with the Aussies tonight, but Mirza-Tecau had been so solid and served so much better. So far they look like both should be in the women's ITF serving.

1st round of Mixed Doubles last week vs Matkowkski/Peschke. Lost 7-5 6-4. I was going to say in a close match like that I'd be pissed if Rodi was telling him to drill her and he didn't listen.

Really surprised about how this Gajdosova/Ebden match is going. When the announcers mentioned they were coming up I debated taking them until I heard who they were playing. Not what I expected at all although I admittedly don't watch much of the early MD rounds.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well Mirza-Tecau came through after that rough 1st set, they pretty much dominated. Still pretty good run by the Aussie team again. They would probably get mugged at any other Slam if they played Mixed, but with the crowd, etc. in Melbourne they seem to amp it up quite a bit above what they are. Parlay is alive, yay!

Kozlov and Halys trying to figure out who is worse this 2nd set. But I mean what do you expect from a couple of teens without complete games. Kozlov is gonna be something though I think for the US ... might be the real deal if his game develops the next couple years.

[EaglesPhan36]

Here comes the Koz! 3rd set coming up.

[STAY STRONG]

Kozlov too powerful.

[EaglesPhan36]

Not over yet. Closing is the toughest part.

[EaglesPhan36]

Massive hold there for The Koz.

[EaglesPhan36]

Kozlov vs. Zverev for the Juniors Title. Can't wait to see how smart the books are with the line on that one

[Bumdeal]

Kozlov

[QuangX]

[QUOTE=EaglesPhan36;20958384]I'm pink where it counts.[/QUOW

WHat does Phan mean? I thought that was a last name!!!

[Boxing Champ]

Hey EP.. i missed your parlay with KOZLOV.. Is there a bet that I can do on Nadal vs federer match? The Over 3.5 sets by itself is ridiculous at almost -300..What about the Over 41?? its at -140 still. is it worth taking or nO..
Thanks as always.