Paraguay +11400 to WIN

Masu485 · 06-11-10, 01:00 AM

this doesnt look that bad. the dutch are pretty good and a star is coming back from injury early, so i doubt u'd get paraguay for -400.

JOHON8 · 06-11-10, 01:06 AM

Originally posted by terpkeg

Risking 20/2,280 - Is there any value here? Seems high for a squad who is -180 to -240 range to advance. Do you think you can scalp this in Rd 16 or could you get into a dangerous area, if they somehow pulled some upsets.

I literally know nothing about soccer. What would line be vs. Dutch in rd 2 if that set up? Are we talking -400 or more? I guess it depends how everyone looks at the group stage.

Any thoughts here?

Just look back at the winners. It's an exclusive club, it's hard to find value in a WC winner unless it's the top 4-5 countries. Argentina or Holland would be as far as you should go. After the group stages Paraguay have to play 4 games vs 4 World Class countries who have massive amount of pressure to win the whole thing. This is why the bookmakers make a sh*t load of money on prop betting, you need to know a lot of background before you go looking into value.

hope that helps.

terpkeg · 06-11-10, 07:04 AM

Originally posted by JOHON8

Just look back at the winners. It's an exclusive club, it's hard to find value in a WC winner unless it's the top 4-5 countries. Argentina or Holland would be as far as you should go. After the group stages Paraguay have to play 4 games vs 4 World Class countries who have massive amount of pressure to win the whole thing. This is why the bookmakers make a sh*t load of money on prop betting, you need to know a lot of background before you go looking into value.

hope that helps.

agreed, i dont think they win they event but i would be happy winning 40.00 which is currently anout 1 unit for me. as opposed to laying -175 which was the best number i could find on Paraguay to advance, can I pull this off with only 20.00 risk.

if paraguay is matched up in 16 v. Dutch, want would the number be? if it is -300, i would have to risk 180/60. if paraguay pulls the upset there, I then need to recover 240 for my profit. what would there QF number be? at this point do i get a tighter number b/c paraguay gets some respect at this point? if paraguays opponents are -300 or up all the way through from 2R ro finals, I can not start my hedge until the QF without the risk of Paragauy somehow making the final and me going bust.

Now, a Paraguay upset over Italy and/or a Win of Group would go a long way for me, but if that was the case I might have well just took Paraguay to win group.

The more I think about it, the less value I see, but I really dont know. I am not a predictor of soccer lines by any means. What can I expect the future lines to be should Paraguay make the 2nd round.

wikkidinsane · 06-11-10, 07:25 AM

Change that bet to Uruguay

terpkeg · 06-11-10, 07:46 AM

Originally posted by wikkidinsane

Change that bet to Uruguay

Uraguay +9650 - again i do not know shiat about futbol, but if Uruaguay can Win Group A, looks like they will be favorite to win in 2nd round and A seems pretty much wide open.

I have spent a good 5 hours the past two days just reading others opinions on the Cup as I always enjoy watching it, along with Euro's, and I took Uraguay pk, +.5 -101 today. Maybe I will throw another prop out there.

Took Spain with the free prop Bodog gave me as well.

terpkeg · 06-20-10, 07:21 AM

Paraguay winning this group would be huge for this play. They should be favorite over Japan or Denmark, no?

Guru de Futbol · 06-20-10, 07:26 AM

Im on Paraguay, Chile, and Uruguay myself. Odds worth a small bet. GL

terpkeg · 06-20-10, 07:43 AM

Originally posted by Guru de Futbol

Im on Paraguay, Chile, and Uruguay myself. Odds worth a small bet. GL

Nice, i took Uruguay as well. Just need a draw to win the group there and they should also be favored to reach the QF's. What number did you get on Chile?

D3 Mighty Ducks · 06-20-10, 07:51 AM

Anything worth a shot at those odds. Johon is 100% right though, the winners of the past world cups are an exclusive class. I can't see Paraguay taking the WORLD CUP over teams such as Brazil, Argentina, Spain etc.

terpkeg · 06-20-10, 08:50 AM

Originally posted by D3 Mighty Ducks

Anything worth a shot at those odds. Johon is 100% right though, the winners of the past world cups are an exclusive class. I can't see Paraguay taking the WORLD CUP over teams such as Brazil, Argentina, Spain etc.

Neither do I, just thought that there was more value then taking them -180 to advance. Figured I could start scalping in round of 16. But, it they can actually win group, then I propable wait to QF.

terpkeg · 07-01-10, 09:22 AM

Considering Spain is -488 to advance, it doesn't appear that the Paraguay play had any value. Can't scalp now, b/c if they somehow pulled off the upset here and in the semi's it would be a disaster.

Urugauy, on the other hand, is looking good.

In all though, things could not have shaked out any better for these too. Except if Chili won Group H and threw Spain and Brazil at each other in Round of 16.