EP36's Equalizers

[JRLM8]

Damn you, Higuain. Damn you. (It was a beautiful goal though)

[sockeye]

Higuain Gonzalo's goal in the last minute ruined it. Thought the under 3 was already bagged.

[Dunder]

Updated Record: 141-98-10 (+30.86)

Bummer. 90th minute goal gives Madrid the 3-0 win and ends it at a push.

Just a quick question, EP.
Reading the game as you did i.e. 2-0 or 3-0 to Real, what was the logic behind playing under 3.0. Why not play on the correct score bets?

By no means criticising, just curious.

[EaglesPhan36]

Where I play right now, I don't always have props for these matches that allow for picking the exact score. Honestly too, I think it's much harder to get those correct. I would say a match like this you may have had a good point though because Espanyol wasn't going to score. But in general, I think there are usually far too many outcomes to make predicting an exact score better to win in my opinion over taking the O/U.

[DIESELHEEL]

What are you on for tomorrow ep? I'm on Chelsea over 2.5

[EaglesPhan36]

Think I am taking Sunday off. Not much to my liking. Chelsea-Arsenal seems probable for 3 goals, but I can also see a 1-1 draw with the weirdness surrounding both clubs lately. All the Italian league matches are blah to me and Spain as well. The one I would probably come closest to betting would be Malaga-Deportivo UNDER 2.5, but the juice is high at -143 so I am passing.

[psulions]

Chelsea/Arsenal over looks too easy.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #250: [England Premier] Stoke City PK/+0.5 (+104)
Stoke City is in stellar form in 2010, winning four and drawing two in all competitions. They are 3-0-1 in the Premier League in the New Year, winning all three at home and drawing on the road. Their defense has been solid, allowing one goal or none in 3 of the 4. They run into a Wigan squad that has had nothing but troubles in 2010. Wigan won their first two competitions of the New Year, but have since dropped 3 of the next 5. In Premier League play, Wigan has claimed just one win in four matches in 2010. At home, they are 3-4-3 with just one win in their last five in the EPL. Stoke has had very little success grabbing the full three points on the road, with a 1-5-5 record in the EPL this season. This match could very well end in another low scoring draw, but with Stoke enjoying success both in the EPL and in Cup play so far in 2010, I'll take a shot that worst case they settle for a draw and if things fall in-line, they could steal a win and pay out full stakes on this one. Look for our degenerate betting buddy Etherington for Stoke to play a role if Stoke is to score today! He's gotta pay that debt off.

[spartangreen]

Good luck on Stoke.

[hedgejob]

I remember the reverse fixture not long ago when Figeroa hit that wonder goal from half way. Wigan owned Stoke in that game and were unlucky to get a draw. Not touching this one but BOL.

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated Record: 142-98-10 (+31.38)

1-1 draw. That'll work for a profit today.

[sockeye]

Congrats EP! Following your picks have been proved profitable!

[EaglesPhan36]

2010 Record: 12-8-1 (+0.45)
Overall Updated Record: 142-98-10 (+31.38)


Gonna start listing both this year's record and overall. Seem to be on track after a rather cruddy start.

[TurkzZ]

Tuncay bringing home the ££ haha

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #251: [England Premier] Arsenal vs. Liverpool OVER 2/2.5 (-118)
If this match were at Liverpool, I would tend to favor a lower scoring affair. However with this one taking place at The Emirates, I feel goals are coming. Arsene Wenger is firmly under pressure with the Arsenal drifting closer to 4th & 5th place clubs Liverpool and Manchester City than to 2nd place Manchester United which is now seven points clear of the Gunners. They've lost 2 of their last 3 in Premier League play and their defense is continuing to be shaky at best, conceding five goals in their last two. Arsenal was also booted out of the FA Cup unceremonioously by Stoke City, 3-1. As concerning as their lack of defense has to be their lack of offense as they have scored just once in their last three EPL matches. The Emirates have been a solid elixir for a lack of goals all season with all 12 matches hitting for at least two goals and 10 of those clearing to three goals or better. In three at home in 2010, Arsenal has tallied 7 and conceded 7. Enter Liverpool which has had scoring troubles of their own with just six goals in five matches this new year, but just one in two road matches. On the road all season, the Reds have been hit and miss. They have been held scoreless in 5 of 12. Still, they have held up with three wins and two draws in five matches in 2010 and have been rising up the table, moving just five points behind Arsenal. These two teams met at Liverpool in December and Arsenal came away with a 2-1 win. The series is chock full of goals with both teams tallying scores in each of the last 11 meetings. I find it hard to envision Arsenal's defense shutting down a confident Liverpool squad when the Gunners have given up multiple goals in 5 of their last 7 in all competitions, but I do believe Arsenal will put a spirited effort forward at home and find a goal as well. A draw is the copout pick in this match thinking that both would settle, but this match means a ton to both with Wenger still searching for career win #300 in the EPL as well as keeping the Gunners in the title hunt. And Liverpool looking to continue its ascent as well as potentially helping further bury their rivals. I think one of these two finds another goal, but will take the split 2/2.5 in case it winds up deadlocked.

[aunty jack]

here are the aforementioned shiny sbr points!

thanks for the write-up. third vs fourth with neither team exactly setting the world on fire at this stage of the season.

i can see it ending 1-all... but i don't have the coconuts to lay my money down on an exact score.

good luck.

[sockeye]

Best of Luck!

[EaglesPhan36]

2010 Record: 12-9-1 (-0.73)
Overall Updated Record: 142-99-10 (+30.20)

[DIESELHEEL]

Anything for tomorrow?

[EaglesPhan36]

Only thing bettable is that South American Cup, but I don't follow it. Check out demize and Karayilan's threads, think they have been posting plenty of picks. I'm probably off till the weekend.

[EaglesPhan36]

Gonna start referring to play numbers for 2010, but keeping the overall record in check too.

Play #23: [German Bundesliga] Bayer Leverkusen vs. Wolfsburg OVER 3 (-113)
Leverkusen has been on a goal scoring spree since returning to action in 2010. The Bundesliga co-leaders have scored 3 goals or more in 3 of their 4 matches in the new year. Leverkusen has also conceded a goal in 3 of 4. At home for the entire Bundesliga season, Leverkusen has been deadly on the attack. 6 of the last 7 matches on their home pitch have seen them hit for 3 goals or better. They have failed to score just once in 10 home matches. Defensively they do have five clean sheets at home on the season, but have now given up 5 goals in their last 3. Wolfsburg and goals have gone hand-in-hand for pretty much the whole Bundesliga season. The re-start in 2010 has seen 15 goals scored in the four Wolfsburg matches thus far. That includes just 5 offensively and a whopping 10 let in. Away from home, Wolfsburg has allowed a goal in 9 of 10 and multiple goals scored against in four matches, including 3 of the last 4. Overall, 17 of 21 for Wolsburg in Bundesliga play have hit for at least three goals. For Leverkusen, 13 of 21 have hit for 3 or better - 7 have come at home. Can't see the goal deluge from Leverkusen at home stopping here as they are fully capable of hitting a push on this total by themselves. Wolfsburg should be a willing participant and if they get on the board, a full stakes win is very realistic. 5 goals in the first meeting in September, including two penalty kick goals.

[cmh329]

push, should have went over.

[JOHON8]

The Bayer game looks like it's gonna be a goal fest.

BOL EP

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #24: [Spain La Liga] Deportivo Xerez vs. Real Madrid OVER 2.5/3 (-115)
A complete mis-match with bottom feeding Xerex hosting 2nd place Real Madrid. Madrid blitzed Xerez for a bevy of late goals when they met in September to win going away, 5-0. Xerex despite being at the bottom has been fighting hard since 2010 began. They have scored at least one goal in 4 of 6 in the new year and have scored in all three home matches. They have also conceded eight goals so far in 2010. At home, they have given up at least two goals in 4 of the last 5. Madrid seems to have found their scoring touch with 8 goals in their last 3 matches, including 3 in each of the last two. Sitting 5 points behind leader Barcelona, Madrid can ill afford to not show up with fire and passion today. The return of Cristiano Ronaldo may take care of that. Madrid has given up a goal in 6 of their last 8 in La Liga on the road. If Xerex can get on the board, no doubt this hits 3 or better and even if they do not, Madrid certainly has the power to do the damage themselves.

[JOHON8]

I already had a bet on the Madrid over 2.5

BOL!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Madrid oughta have a couple goals already. Hopefully the floodgates open in the second half. Ronaldo is going to score, missed one on the crossbar.

[Smogs]

The pitch is so bad

[hedgejob]

Valencia played them on the same pitch last month and won 1-3, come on RM.

[fuglyboy86hi]

quite profitable today !

[hedgejob]

1 down, come on RM. Stay positive boys and we might get this.

[hedgejob]

2 down, come on RM.

[hedgejob]

3... thank you RM

[JOHON8]

0-3
ty Ronaldo

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah boy! Ronaldo was not going to be denied today. Only a half stakes win for me, but that's better than nothing.

[EaglesPhan36]

2010 Record: 13-9-2 (-0.23)
Overall Updated Record: 143-99-11 (+30.70)