NFL systems in play Game #15 Week 16
historically game 15 is the lowest scoring week of the season at 46% overs the since 1990. Overs ruled in 2016 but the other seasons since 2010 produced a combined 34-59-3 o/u with 11-24-2 for division games. AFC home teams are 12-32-3 o/u*
OPPOSE week 15 7-7 favs off SUATS loss playing a team with 3+ wins (1-18 = play on JAX) = not lost since 1995
PLAY ON Dec home dogs playing decent pass defense L3 weeks (65-26 = on TB, on TEN)
UNDER teams off bad rush defense game where they were blown out and gained few first downs (5-48 o/u = NYG under)
OPPOSE and UNDER home teams that allowed 31+ in b2b games playing nondiv (12-24 / 7-29 o/u = play on JAX and under)
OPPOSE away team allowing 17 or less in b2b wins and still not favored by >TD (18-43 = play on 49ers)
UNDER big away fav won 7+ LY (3-25 o/u = LAR under)
UNDER 2nd meeting of season after scoring 34+ in first meeting (11-38 o/u = CLE under)
PLAY ON 2nd meeting of season lost away by >7 first time (51-18 = on OAK)
UNDER off away, won 11+ LY, and opponent has more wins (5-32 o/u = PHI under)
OPPOSE home fav off away dog loss, scoring <=14 avg L3 weeks, opponent terrible away team (2-28 = on TB)
OPPOSE fav allowed 37+ while scoring <20 and playing nonelite team (42-79 = play on JAX)
OVER away that won 11+ LY off home game vs team played MNF (28-3 o/u = PIT over)
PLAY ON conf team >19 ppg margin worse than opponent (69-13 = on ARI)
OPPOSE teams off a close win as a 10+ dog (10-35 = play on HOU)
UNDER grass nondiv off away fav game allowing 360+ (7-48 o/u = HOU under)
OPPOSE div home team off close div home loss (11-28 = play on ATL)
PLAY ON 10+ win favs that won at least 6 home games (44-15 = nothing this week but active on KC and LAR next week)
note: 12-1-1 L5 years (13-1 SU) win by 30-14 avg
UNDER home fav off fav game with 2+ turnovers and poor rushing (5-39 o/u = LAR under)
UNDER 2nd meeting, scored 28+ first meeting (68-127 o/u = ATL under, LAR under, CLE under)
OVER total <49 and on a 4+ game under streak, just scored <13 (115-73 o/u = TB over)
OVER off a win preceded by two blowout losses (52-24 o/u = WAS over, MIN over)
OVER off a home thur loss that went over (35-9 o/u = KC over) = 1-4 o/u L5
PLAY ON non div dog off shutout loss and playing <60 WP opponent (36-7 = on NYG)
PLAY ON dog lost h2h last meeting allowing 28-35 (47-19 = on CIN)
PLAY ON big fav vs avg opponent off a home dog win (65-30 = on NO)
note: 89-7 SU, 85-11 on 6-pt teaser lie, 92-4 on 10-pt teaser line)
PLAY ON away with b2b no turnovers late in season (78-38 = on HOU) 6-1 L7
PLAY ON medium away dog, losing team, off away loss (88-45 = on TB)
UNDER elite team playing home off dog win and opponent not off dog win (61-104 o/u = LAC under)
OPPOSE winning team off home dog win but loss before that, facing elite team (9-23 = oppose PIT)
PLAY ON big away dog off away dog win as <7 dog (45-16 = on WAS)
PLAY ON teams that went under by 28+ (53-22 = on NO, on CAR)
OPPOSE home fav off close away nondiv loss vs nondiv opponent off away loss (25-86 = play on TB)
OPPOSE home favs or small dogs that are terrible 1st half teams (106-177 = play on DEN)*
- last game in OAK?
UNDER team off away blowout win that went under vs opponent avg <26 ppg (19-62 o/u = TEN under) = 1-17 o/u L18
UNDER big favs off poor game as a fav (43-106 o/u = LAR under) = 5-45 o/u L50
OVER big home nondiv fav vs team with poor time of possession and mostly 1st downs through the air (45-13 o/u = DAL over)
OPPOSE turf away team off home game committing 3+ more penalties than YTD avg (6-40 = play on INDY)
PLAY ON turf home team off great running game home win (50-14 = on INDY) 24-2 L26
PLAY ON huge favs in final 2 weeks of season if not won 14 games and are at least 3 games better than opponent (46-21 = on LAR, on NE)
OPPOSE .500 favs that aren't on 3+ game winning streak (11-37 = play on HOU, on JAX)
NFL systems in play, game #15 Week 16
by game
IND = 40-6, 50-14
NYG = 36-7
NYG under = 5-48
LAR = 46-21
ARI = 69-13
LAR under = 19-62, 5-45, 68-127, 5-39, 3-25
NE = 46-21
HOU = 37-11, 78-38, 35-10
HOU under = 7-48, 5-32
JAX = 37-11, 79-42, 24-12, 18-1
JAX under = 7-29
DAL over = 45-13, 115-73
TB = 86-25, 88-45, 28-2, 65-26
NO = 53-22, 23-9, 65-30, 24-5
PIT over = 28-3
CAR = 53-22
ATL = 28-11
ATL under = 68-127
CIN = 47-19
CLE under = 68-127, 11-38
SF = 43-18
KC over = 35-9
MIN over = 52-24
DEN = 177-106
OAK = 51-18
NFL systems in play, game #15 week 16
count 3 agreements with no conflicts..
cin/cle under
car/atl under
ne*
NFL betting trends and Info
*
TAMPA BAY VS DALLAS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay’s last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
NY GIANTS VS INDIANAPOLIS
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants’s last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis’s last 5 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
HOUSTON VS PHILADELPHIA
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia’s last 7 games at home
Philadelphia is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games at home
JACKSONVILLE VS MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville’s last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville’s last 5 games on the road
Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
GREEN BAY VS NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay’s last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Green Bay’s last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets’s last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets’s last 5 games
CINCINNATI VS CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cincinnati is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland’s last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
MINNESOTA VS DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit’s last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit’s last 6 games at home
BUFFALO VS NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo’s last 6 games when playing New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
New England is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Buffalo
ATLANTA VS CAROLINA
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Carolina is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina’s last 6 games at home
CHICAGO VS SAN FRANCISCO
Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Chicago is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
San Francisco is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Chicago
San Francisco is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Chicago
LA RAMS VS ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams’s last 5 games on the road
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona’s last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona’s last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams
PITTSBURGH VS NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans’s last 5 games
KANSAS CITY VS SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City’s last 9 games on the road
Kansas City is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle’s last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle’s last 5 games when playing Kansas City
*
historically game 15 is the lowest scoring week of the season at 46% overs the since 1990. Overs ruled in 2016 but the other seasons since 2010 produced a combined 34-59-3 o/u with 11-24-2 for division games. AFC home teams are 12-32-3 o/u*
OPPOSE week 15 7-7 favs off SUATS loss playing a team with 3+ wins (1-18 = play on JAX) = not lost since 1995
PLAY ON Dec home dogs playing decent pass defense L3 weeks (65-26 = on TB, on TEN)
UNDER teams off bad rush defense game where they were blown out and gained few first downs (5-48 o/u = NYG under)
OPPOSE and UNDER home teams that allowed 31+ in b2b games playing nondiv (12-24 / 7-29 o/u = play on JAX and under)
OPPOSE away team allowing 17 or less in b2b wins and still not favored by >TD (18-43 = play on 49ers)
UNDER big away fav won 7+ LY (3-25 o/u = LAR under)
UNDER 2nd meeting of season after scoring 34+ in first meeting (11-38 o/u = CLE under)
PLAY ON 2nd meeting of season lost away by >7 first time (51-18 = on OAK)
UNDER off away, won 11+ LY, and opponent has more wins (5-32 o/u = PHI under)
OPPOSE home fav off away dog loss, scoring <=14 avg L3 weeks, opponent terrible away team (2-28 = on TB)
OPPOSE fav allowed 37+ while scoring <20 and playing nonelite team (42-79 = play on JAX)
OVER away that won 11+ LY off home game vs team played MNF (28-3 o/u = PIT over)
PLAY ON conf team >19 ppg margin worse than opponent (69-13 = on ARI)
OPPOSE teams off a close win as a 10+ dog (10-35 = play on HOU)
UNDER grass nondiv off away fav game allowing 360+ (7-48 o/u = HOU under)
OPPOSE div home team off close div home loss (11-28 = play on ATL)
PLAY ON 10+ win favs that won at least 6 home games (44-15 = nothing this week but active on KC and LAR next week)
note: 12-1-1 L5 years (13-1 SU) win by 30-14 avg
UNDER home fav off fav game with 2+ turnovers and poor rushing (5-39 o/u = LAR under)
UNDER 2nd meeting, scored 28+ first meeting (68-127 o/u = ATL under, LAR under, CLE under)
OVER total <49 and on a 4+ game under streak, just scored <13 (115-73 o/u = TB over)
OVER off a win preceded by two blowout losses (52-24 o/u = WAS over, MIN over)
OVER off a home thur loss that went over (35-9 o/u = KC over) = 1-4 o/u L5
PLAY ON non div dog off shutout loss and playing <60 WP opponent (36-7 = on NYG)
PLAY ON dog lost h2h last meeting allowing 28-35 (47-19 = on CIN)
PLAY ON big fav vs avg opponent off a home dog win (65-30 = on NO)
note: 89-7 SU, 85-11 on 6-pt teaser lie, 92-4 on 10-pt teaser line)
PLAY ON away with b2b no turnovers late in season (78-38 = on HOU) 6-1 L7
PLAY ON medium away dog, losing team, off away loss (88-45 = on TB)
UNDER elite team playing home off dog win and opponent not off dog win (61-104 o/u = LAC under)
OPPOSE winning team off home dog win but loss before that, facing elite team (9-23 = oppose PIT)
PLAY ON big away dog off away dog win as <7 dog (45-16 = on WAS)
PLAY ON teams that went under by 28+ (53-22 = on NO, on CAR)
OPPOSE home fav off close away nondiv loss vs nondiv opponent off away loss (25-86 = play on TB)
OPPOSE home favs or small dogs that are terrible 1st half teams (106-177 = play on DEN)*
- last game in OAK?
UNDER team off away blowout win that went under vs opponent avg <26 ppg (19-62 o/u = TEN under) = 1-17 o/u L18
UNDER big favs off poor game as a fav (43-106 o/u = LAR under) = 5-45 o/u L50
OVER big home nondiv fav vs team with poor time of possession and mostly 1st downs through the air (45-13 o/u = DAL over)
OPPOSE turf away team off home game committing 3+ more penalties than YTD avg (6-40 = play on INDY)
PLAY ON turf home team off great running game home win (50-14 = on INDY) 24-2 L26
PLAY ON huge favs in final 2 weeks of season if not won 14 games and are at least 3 games better than opponent (46-21 = on LAR, on NE)
OPPOSE .500 favs that aren't on 3+ game winning streak (11-37 = play on HOU, on JAX)
NFL systems in play, game #15 Week 16
by game
IND = 40-6, 50-14
NYG = 36-7
NYG under = 5-48
LAR = 46-21
ARI = 69-13
LAR under = 19-62, 5-45, 68-127, 5-39, 3-25
NE = 46-21
HOU = 37-11, 78-38, 35-10
HOU under = 7-48, 5-32
JAX = 37-11, 79-42, 24-12, 18-1
JAX under = 7-29
DAL over = 45-13, 115-73
TB = 86-25, 88-45, 28-2, 65-26
NO = 53-22, 23-9, 65-30, 24-5
PIT over = 28-3
CAR = 53-22
ATL = 28-11
ATL under = 68-127
CIN = 47-19
CLE under = 68-127, 11-38
SF = 43-18
KC over = 35-9
MIN over = 52-24
DEN = 177-106
OAK = 51-18
NFL systems in play, game #15 week 16
count 3 agreements with no conflicts..
cin/cle under
car/atl under
ne*
NFL betting trends and Info
*
TAMPA BAY VS DALLAS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay’s last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
NY GIANTS VS INDIANAPOLIS
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants’s last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis’s last 5 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
HOUSTON VS PHILADELPHIA
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia’s last 7 games at home
Philadelphia is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games at home
JACKSONVILLE VS MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville’s last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville’s last 5 games on the road
Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
GREEN BAY VS NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay’s last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Green Bay’s last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets’s last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets’s last 5 games
CINCINNATI VS CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cincinnati is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland’s last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
MINNESOTA VS DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit’s last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit’s last 6 games at home
BUFFALO VS NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo’s last 6 games when playing New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
New England is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Buffalo
ATLANTA VS CAROLINA
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Carolina is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina’s last 6 games at home
CHICAGO VS SAN FRANCISCO
Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Chicago is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
San Francisco is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Chicago
San Francisco is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Chicago
LA RAMS VS ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams’s last 5 games on the road
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona’s last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona’s last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams
PITTSBURGH VS NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans’s last 5 games
KANSAS CITY VS SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City’s last 9 games on the road
Kansas City is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle’s last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle’s last 5 games when playing Kansas City
*