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Comment -
Finally a good day!!!Comment -
Hey Pringler, have you thought continuing the fade but eliminating the cappers that have winning records (Ben Burns, Steve Merril, Larry Ness, Doc's Sports)?
I know a lot of people on here like sh*tting on the Covers "experts" but I think we should consider the possibility that maybe some of them are actually winning cappers...Comment -
Fade Capper Name Units Ben Burns 19 - 24 -$499.00 Bryan Power 21 - 27 -$183.00 Chris Elliot 15 - 15 -$80.00 David Chan 13 - 11 $156.00 Doc's Sports 12 - 14 -$59.00 Jesse Schule 22 - 18 $363.00 Larry Ness 2 - 5 -$271.00 Lenny Del Genio 20 - 12 $1,067.00 Marc Lawrence 40 - 42 -$178.00 Matt Fargo 16 - 21 -$144.00 Sean Murphy 13 - 14 -$151.00 Steve Merril 3 - 7 -$444.00 Teddy Sevransky 11 - 8 $280.00 Sport MLB 2012 Season 194 - 204 $2.00 EuroCup 2012 3 - 2 $85.00 WNBA 2012 Season 1 - 1 -$10.00 CFL 2012 Season 3 - 2 $80.00 Summer Olympics 2012 1 - 0 $130.00 NFL 2012 Preseason 5 - 8 -$330.00 MMA 2012 0 - 1 -$100.00 By Week Week 1 14 - 9 $681.00 Week 2 17 - 14 $350.00 Week 3 13 - 14 -$338.00 Week 4 18 - 16 $457.00 Week 5 17 - 15 $345.00 Week 6 15 - 17 -$177.00 Week 7 15 - 17 -$55.00 Week 8 17 - 14 $453.00 Week 9 5 - 5 $101.00 Week 10 12 - 18 -$649.00 Week 11 14 - 19 -$545.00 Week 12 14 - 20 -$634.00 Week 13 16 - 11 $700.00 Week 14 11 - 18 -$635.00 Week 15 9 - 11 -$197.00 Week 16 0 - 0 $0.00 Week 17 - Week 18 - Week 19 - Week 20 - Week 21 - Week 22 - Week 23 - Week 24 - Week 25 - Week 26 - Week 27 - Week 28 - Week 29 - Week 30 - Week 31 - Week 32 - Week 33 - Week 34 - Week 35 - Week 36 - Week 37 - Week 38 - Week 39 - Week 40 - Week 41 - Week 42 - Week 43 - Week 44 - Week 45 - Week 46 - Week 47 - Week 48 - Week 49 - Week 50 - Week 51 - Week 52 - By Month May 37 - 34 $381.00 June 71 - 65 $1,100.00 July 58 - 62 -$659.00 August 41 - 57 -$1,427.00 September October By Rating 3* Plays 2* Plays 1* Plays $0.49 Total 207 - 218 -$143.00 Comment -
LAST NIGHT
4-1 +$309
August 25 Saturday
1* Plays:
4:00pm - NFLX: Indianapolis at Washington
Jesse Schule: Indianapolis +3.0 (100)
Our Fade Play: Washington -3.0 (-120)
7:00pm - MLB: Washington at Philadelphia
Marc Lawrence: Philadelphia (-108)
Our Fade Play: Washington (-102)
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2* Plays:
7:00pm - NFLX: Pittsburgh at Buffalo
Ben Burns + Bryan Power: Buffalo +1.5 (+105)
Our Fade Play: Pittsburgh -1.5 (-125)
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3* Plays:
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August 26
8:00pm - NFLX: Carolina at NY Jets
Doc's Sports: Under 40.5 (-110)
Our Fade Play: Over 40.5 (-110)
= I have personally locked in my bet for the day at this price.
Comment -
I think you got a winner with Washington Nationals. Good luck.Comment -
I saw Bob Balfe post Washington and he has a good record. Guess I jinxed it
Comment -
LAST NIGHT
0-2 -$274
August 27 Monday
1* Plays:
7:00pm - MLB: Chi. White Sox at Baltimore
Matt Fargo: Baltimore (-115)
Our Fade Play: Chi. White Sox (+105)
8:00pm - MLB: Tampa Bay at Texas
Teddy Covers: Over 8.5 (-115)
Our Fade Play: Under 8.5 (-105)
8:00pm - MLB: Milwaukee at Chi. Cubs
Marc Lawrence: Chi. Cubs (+115)
Our Fade Play: Milwaukee (-125)
9:40pm - MLB: Cincinnati at Arizona
Doc's Sports: Arizona (-111)
Our Fade Play: Cincinnati (+101)
10:00pm - MLB: Atlanta at San Diego
Lenny Del Taco: San Diego (+130)
Our Fade Play: Atlanta (-140)
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2* Plays:
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3* Plays:
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September 1
12:00pm - NCAAF: Hawaii at Southern California
Ben Burns: Southern California -39.5 (-110)
Our Fade Play: Hawaii +39.5 (-110)
= I have personally locked in my bet for the day at this price.
Comment -
( for the record )
Aug 26
Marc Lawrence
LOST: 964 Dodgers (-164) LP(Harang, A & Buehrle, M) risk 164 win 100 (MLB) Score: 2-6 LOST: 964 Dodgers (-164) LP(Harang, A & Buehrle, M) risk 164 win 100 (MLB) Score: 2-6 -164.0
Doc's Sports
LOST: TOT OVR 281 Panthers/Jets over 41 (-110) risk 110 win 100 (NFL) Score: 17-12 LOST: TOT OVR 281 Panthers/Jets over 41 (-110) risk 110 win 100 (NFL) Score: 17-12 -110.0 Comment -
LAST NIGHT
2-3 -$144
August 28 Tuesday
1* Plays:
8:00pm - MLB: Seattle at Minnesota
Larry Ness: Minnesota (-130)
Our Fade Play: Seattle (+120)
8:00pm - MLB: Tampa Bay at Texas
Doc's Sports: Tampa Bay (113)
Our Fade Play: Texas (-123)
7:00pm - MLB: Oakland at Cleveland
Teddy Covers: Oakland (-113)
Our Fade Play: Cleveland (+103)
7:00pm - MLB: St. Louis at Pittsburgh
Marc Lawrence: Pittsburgh (+105)
Our Fade Play: St. Louis (-115)
10:00pm - MLB: Atlanta at San Diego
Chris Elliot: Under 7.0 (-120)
Our Fade Play: Over 7.0 (100)
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2* Plays:
7:00pm - MLB: Toronto at NY Yankees
Matt Fargo + Jesse Schule: Over 9.5 (-105)
Our Fade Play: Under 9.5 (-115)
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3* Plays:
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September 1
12:00pm - NCAAF: Hawaii at Southern California
Ben Burns: Southern California -39.5 (-110)
Our Fade Play: Hawaii +39.5 (-110)
= I have personally locked in my bet for the day at this price.
Comment -
It was a good experiment, but it's time to call it a day, Pringler. I've already privately tracked one with Pregame and with the cappers over at Sportscapping, and it ends up the same; these jokers hover around 50%.Comment -
This is why I like checkit's input on this and other forum topics.
When are the auto faders going to realize that blindly auto-fading the covers experts isn't the most efficient model for turning a profit?
Look at each individual tout and see which ones are worthy of a fade and which ones will just have you chasing your tail.
Be selective and pick your spots. Practice sound money management and diversification. The books can be beat, but it's not as simple as just taking the opposite side of a group of touts.Comment -
In order for them to give the ILLUSION of being good cappers they have to win their comps a certain percentage of time. This is the beauty of watching comp releases.
The smart winning bettor accepts the fact that yes, most will hit in the 45-50% range. The smart winning bettor takes this fact and exploits it to his advantage.
See where I'm going with this, people...? Pick your spots, practice sound money management, shrug off the occasional bad beat, and laugh every time you make your withdraw.Comment -
LAST NIGHT
3-3 +$84
August 29 Wednesday
1* Plays:
1:00pm - MLB: Toronto at NY Yankees
Chris Elliot: Under 8.5 (-120)
Our Fade Play: Over 8.5 (100)
3:40pm - MLB: Cincinnati at Arizona
Matt Fargo: Cincinnati (-109)
Our Fade Play: Arizona (-101)
10:00pm - MLB: Boston at LA Angels
Jesse Schule: Over ()
Our Fade Play: Under ()
7:00pm - MLB: St. Louis at Pittsburgh
Marc Lawrence: St. Louis ()
Our Fade Play: Pittsburgh ()
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2* Plays:
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3* Plays:
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September 1
12:00pm - NCAAF: Hawaii at Southern California
Ben Burns: Southern California -39.5 (-110)
Our Fade Play: Hawaii +39.5 (-110)
= I have personally locked in my bet for the day at this price.
Comment -
Hey Pringer, for the record the 2* on TOR/NYY u9.5 yesterday should have been a 1*. I also played it as a 1*. Matt Fargo removed his free play at around 10am Pacific.
But it's good you won an extra $100 since you played it as a 2*!!!Comment -
Im not really sure what I am going to do with this yet. I think I will hold course until September and decide. Looking at the individual records only a few select cappers are still profitable on the fade and it looks like they are slowly heading towards profitability. I may consider fading select cappers. Possibly in a chase system or a 'fade after win' system.
This daily fade system is a little project that is in relation to a much larger project that I have been working on for the past year. There is no doubt in my mind that fading most of these guys paid plays daily will result in profit but free plays are always another story.
Fade Capper Name Units Ben Burns 20 - 24 -$399.00 Bryan Power 22 - 27 -$83.00 Chris Elliot 15 - 16 -$180.00 David Chan 13 - 11 $156.00 Doc's Sports 14 - 15 $32.00 Jesse Schule 24 - 18 $563.00 Larry Ness 3 - 5 -$151.00 Lenny Del Genio 20 - 13 $927.00 Marc Lawrence 41 - 45 -$459.00 Matt Fargo 16 - 22 -$244.00 Sean Murphy 13 - 14 -$151.00 Steve Merril 3 - 7 -$444.00 Teddy Sevransky 11 - 10 $75.00 Comment -
I've been working on something as well that kind of dawned on me; one of those lightbulb moments, ya know? Unfortunately, it won't really work with the free picks, so there is the added cost of the actual picks, but it's been working out very good so far.
Here's the thing: I've found that most handicappers don't really lie, they're just really deceptive with their marketing. The key was paying attention to their marketing. Let me give an example. The scamdicapper Matt Rivers, from the demarco group, advertises on his site that he is 45-36-2 lifetime on his 500,000* picks. That's 55%, and that's a good win percentage. He doesn't say anything else about the rest of his rated picks. So I started tracking handicapper's best picks, and the results are very, very good.Comment -
Difficult sometimes without the benefit of facial expression or vocal tones...but it sounds like sarcasm on your part.
If you or anyone else just blindly fade these guys, you will eventually make a tiny profit (where you're basically jagging off pretending to be a winning bettor) or bleed away in juice (which is basically the same as losing).
It is possible catch the regression/reversal points in these and other comp picks IF you pay attention, keep close records, and manage your br with discipline.
I can go into further detail but then people won't have anything to make snarky remarks about...and all the while my br grows significantly each month (I care less about day to day fluctuations; it has to do with intertemporal choice).
I was punking some sbr pro a few days ago in which he bragged about being up 120 units in his life time. And it was pretty obvious he's been doing this for many years. That's a fukking joke. 100 or more units ***per year*** is very much do-able. You just have to accept the fact that it's pointless to pound a nail with a screw driver.Comment -
Yes that does work. Pick a handful of quality handicappers and play their "GOY" plays or whatever their top play is. Trouble is there are few of them and then what do you do when they go against each other? I have done and thought of your strategy many times. The trouble is staying on it and I believe it is a whole different ball game then an auto fade system. By the way, I still believe that in the long run these guys will lose their free plays over time.... Am I the only one?Comment -
Hey EV, I'm actually trying to do this with Hondo. I'm fading him when he loses, following him when he wins. Just started a thread today. But I'm trying to keep records on his average streak lengths, both winning and losing streaks, and then try to predict when his current streak will start to change direction. Right now he is on a 4 win streak, so i'm following him, then i'll fade him once he loses a game. Trying to maximize profit by both following and fadingComment -
I'm sure some of them are long-term losers.
There was a poster named LevItalian who tracked the paid picks over a 2-3 month period and posted the results. I remember Ben Burns and David Chan were down the most:
Comment -
Fading their paid plays will result in a profit for most of them. I can guarantee that.I'm sure some of them are long-term losers.
There was a poster named LevItalian who tracked the paid picks over a 2-3 month period and posted the results. I remember Ben Burns and David Chan were down the most:
http://forum.sbrforum.com/service-pl...l#post14485034Comment -
LAST NIGHT
2-2 -$11
August 30 Thursday
1* Plays:
7:00pm - MLB: St. Louis at Washington
Doc's Sports: St. Louis (100)
Our Fade Play: Washington (-110)
10:00pm - NFLX: San Diego at San Francisco
Bryan Power: Over 37.0 (-110)
Our Fade Play: Under 37.0 (-110)
10:00pm - MLB: San Francisco at Houston
David Chan: San Francisco (-170)
Our Fade Play: Houston (+160)
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2* Plays:
8:00pm - MLB: Detroit at Kansas City
Matt Fargo + Marc Lawrence: Detroit (-121)
Our Fade Play: Kansas City (+111)
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3* Plays:
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September 1
12:00pm - NCAAF: Ohio at Penn State
Larry Ness: Ohio ATS (-110)
Our Fade Play: Penn State ATS (-110)
September 1
12:00pm - NCAAF: San Diego State at Washington
Jesse Schule: San Diego State ATS (-110)
Our Fade Play: Washington ATS (-110)
September 1
12:00pm - NCAAF: Hawaii at Southern California
Ben Burns: Southern California -39.5 (-110)
Our Fade Play: Hawaii +39.5 (-110)
September 1
12:00pm - NCAAF: Miami (O) at Ohio State
Lenny Del Taco: Ohio State ATS (-110)
Our Fade Play: Miami (O) ATS (-110)
September 1
8:00pm - NCAAF: Michigan at Alabama
Teddy Covers: Alabama ATS (-110)
Our Fade Play: Michigan ATS (-110)
= I have personally locked in my bet for the day at this price.
Comment -
Hey guys,
So i stopped tracking the covers-experts free play fade a few days ago. Mostly due to the reason that i was way too busy the whole weekend to make any plays. i will post the spreadsheet later when i get home for everyones fyi.
Anyone have any suggestions for me to play now?
Thanks!
-BComment -
I am a little disappointed that this thread seems to be dying, I was a big fan. Since you seem to be asking for suggestions on which direction you should go with this, I hope you won't mind if I just throw something out there? I know you don't think much of the Covers experts, but I am going to suggest that you try this: there are normally several free plays to choose from each day, why not read the writeups, and choose the one that you find the most convincing?
I know that sometimes you might read a writeup, and you walk away thinking, "FFS, I didn't need you to tell me that.. and you call yourself an expert?" But there are also other times you read a writeup, and you say: "Wholy sh##! really, I didn't know that."
At the end of the day, you have to realize, while you and many others go to work Monday to Friday putting in a 40 hr work week, a good professional handicapper spends 18 hrs per day, 7 days a week, reading, researching, watching tape, studying the matchups. I can't speak for everybody, but I know that is the case for myself.
So all that I am saying, is that you can learn things from us, and if you can get it for free.. you might as well take advantage of it.Comment -
I kept fargos stats , it was 82-65Comment
