Heres the sniper situation now

[RudyRuetigger]

Guys saying (himself included) saying..oh this is just for fun. love the community. its relaxing. I called it whore shit. Guys laughin at my questions.

Sniper said he plays SNGs and up to 16 tables. We know that's not the poker clients limit, its his personal limit then its not profitable.

16 should be assumed, but ok say 12 tables.

what do you guess is his salary? Lets go high and say $100,000.

That means each table should make $8,333 per year

How many hours does he play? We already gave him $100k winnings but ok lets go low,.he great at it

Lets say he works 3hours per day, 5 days a week.

So we will say he makes $100k at 12 tables, 15hrs a week. Very reasonable and high IMO




SBR prop bets he will make $3500 if wins leaderboard (per Spiders numbers) plus about $1300 more In daily points won. $4800

Tourney lasts 1.5hrs compared to his 3hrs per day for income

We could now make assumptions on how much he wins at SBR Ring games but its not necessary.


He makes $8,333 per table with 3hrs work
He makes $4800 per table with 1.5 hrs on SBR


THEREFORE, even though he makes $100k in 15hrs/week..his hourly per table is better at SBR

[Birdman557]

Can you just shut the fukk up already? All over the board with garbage nonsense, grab a couple of Vodkas and relax for fukk sakes...

[RudyRuetigger]

hopefully all my math is correct here. I was thinking the sbr table was half of a cash sng table when I started but then it added up to this???

[RudyRuetigger]

Can you just shut the fukk up already? All over the board with garbage nonsense, grab a couple of Vodkas and relax for fukk sakes...

umadbro?

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/betpoints/2806054-betpoints-loan.html

Yea u mad

[RudyRuetigger]

birdman flies in any weather

hey birdman, fly on over to your debt thread

[SharpAngles]

That's not how poker works pal

Did we need another Wesley snip3s thread?

[RudyRuetigger]

My posts are clearly more important than others as I have useful information and deserve its own thread. Its like making sure a bank has the FDIC insured. When you see a RudyRuetigger thread you know you are in good hands

[SharpAngles]

Fair point

Carry on

[Auto Donk]

Birdman, or Jumpman?????

after reading all the sniper/Four Horseman threads, I, like Drake, think I need some Robitussen!!!!

[Triple_D_Bet]

Rudy, you're making a lot of assumptions here to get those numbers, and some of them don't seem accurate. 15 hours a week might be far too low for example...we don't know if it is or not, but the average grinder is probably putting in more than that. 12 tables at once doesn't seem too far off, considering how difficult it can be keeping the full 16 or whatever personal limit is at all times....but tools for this sort of thing are pretty good, and keeping 14 or 15 out of 16 up on average wouldn't be unreasonable (depending on population, length of sngs, etc).

Another large part missing from your math is the extra time required for the SBR poker to turn into actual cash. Time spent posting, time required to roll over the poker points won, then the time spent rolling over the sportsbook cash into actual money. The first is a pure loss, the second could see a small hourly profit but drastically less than his norm, and even if you say he's a winning sports bettor and won't lose any time rolling over, you'd have to admit he could be doing the same thing with deposit bonuses offered by the book, which also decreases the advantage offered by the sportsbook cash (spending all this time for a bonus compared to spending no time for a redeposit bonus). Also have to factor in that he's not certain to win, so the $3500 part has to be reduced to what his EV on it might be.

Lastly, if he has a personal limit for tables he can play at once before losing profitability, and assuming SBR demands a similar slice of his attention, adding a SBR table is still taking away a cash table he could be maintaining at a higher winrate.

All these things together don't suggest it's profitable for a pro poker player to add a SBR table for this level of points. Even your math here (ignoring all the things I pointed out) shows that he'd be giving up to ~70% of a table's worth of EV if he doesn't win, and seeing only ~20% extra value if he does. Factor in all the additional stuff I pointed out, and the decision looks terrible from a strictly financial position whether he wins or loses.

Even if we assume your math was correct, stepping back and looking at the big picture we'd have a guy who works less than half of a normal work week making good money. People in situations like that usually find things to fill their time that are nor profitable, such as spending it on recreation. If we accept that people spend money for fun, why would it be any less reasonable for people to have fun spending less or making a tiny profit? I bring that up because it's my experience...before playing to pay the bills, poker was a great hobby because it was recreation that didn't cost me anything and actually made money. Some stuff to think about

Can you just shut the fukk up already? All over the board with garbage nonsense, grab a couple of Vodkas and relax for fukk sakes...

News flash: nobody gives a damn what a stiff thinks. If you're not gonna make good on your debt, gtfo

[snip3r2006]

[Birdman557]

Rudy, you're making a lot of assumptions here to get those numbers, and some of them don't seem accurate. 15 hours a week might be far too low for example...we don't know if it is or not, but the average grinder is probably putting in more than that. 12 tables at once doesn't seem too far off, considering how difficult it can be keeping the full 16 or whatever personal limit is at all times....but tools for this sort of thing are pretty good, and keeping 14 or 15 out of 16 up on average wouldn't be unreasonable (depending on population, length of sngs, etc).

Another large part missing from your math is the extra time required for the SBR poker to turn into actual cash. Time spent posting, time required to roll over the poker points won, then the time spent rolling over the sportsbook cash into actual money. The first is a pure loss, the second could see a small hourly profit but drastically less than his norm, and even if you say he's a winning sports bettor and won't lose any time rolling over, you'd have to admit he could be doing the same thing with deposit bonuses offered by the book, which also decreases the advantage offered by the sportsbook cash (spending all this time for a bonus compared to spending no time for a redeposit bonus). Also have to factor in that he's not certain to win, so the $3500 part has to be reduced to what his EV on it might be.

Lastly, if he has a personal limit for tables he can play at once before losing profitability, and assuming SBR demands a similar slice of his attention, adding a SBR table is still taking away a cash table he could be maintaining at a higher winrate.

All these things together don't suggest it's profitable for a pro poker player to add a SBR table for this level of points. Even your math here (ignoring all the things I pointed out) shows that he'd be giving up to ~70% of a table's worth of EV if he doesn't win, and seeing only ~20% extra value if he does. Factor in all the additional stuff I pointed out, and the decision looks terrible from a strictly financial position whether he wins or loses.

Even if we assume your math was correct, stepping back and looking at the big picture we'd have a guy who works less than half of a normal work week making good money. People in situations like that usually find things to fill their time that are nor profitable, such as spending it on recreation. If we accept that people spend money for fun, why would it be any less reasonable for people to have fun spending less or making a tiny profit? I bring that up because it's my experience...before playing to pay the bills, poker was a great hobby because it was recreation that didn't cost me anything and actually made money. Some stuff to think about




News flash: nobody gives a damn what a stiff thinks. If you're not gonna make good on your debt, gtfo

I have a 100 points, you want them?

[IlluminatedOne]

You owe trytrytry, why dont you send them to him boss man

[RudyRuetigger]

Rudy, you're making a lot of assumptions here to get those numbers, and some of them don't seem accurate. 15 hours a week might be far too low for example...we don't know if it is or not, but the average grinder is probably putting in more than that. 12 tables at once doesn't seem too far off, considering how difficult it can be keeping the full 16 or whatever personal limit is at all times....but tools for this sort of thing are pretty good, and keeping 14 or 15 out of 16 up on average wouldn't be unreasonable (depending on population, length of sngs, etc).

this all proves my point

Another large part missing from your math is the extra time required for the SBR poker to turn into actual cash.

ok add 30 minutes per day to my total, but if he is making 100k in a year, ill expect you to add $1000 to my end total that he makes from the rolling over. so $4900/2hrs

Time spent posting,

huh? so it took him what, 20 posts to get the bet?? yea add 30min to the YEARLY total then

time required to roll over the poker points won,

already said this two lines up

then the time spent rolling over the sportsbook cash into actual money. The first is a pure loss, the second could see a small hourly profit but drastically less than his norm, and even if you say he's a winning sports bettor and won't lose any time rolling over, you'd have to admit he could be doing the same thing with deposit bonuses offered by the book, which also decreases the advantage offered by the sportsbook cash (spending all this time for a bonus compared to spending no time for a redeposit bonus). Also have to factor in that he's not certain to win, so the $3500 part has to be reduced to what his EV on it might be.

i have a long thread on how to turn freeplays into cash risk free for 70-80%. Seeing we are giving him 100k per year and living in europe, he can scalp all that out for 100%, but ok ill give you 90%. $5k sportsbook cash is not much and to scalp that out would take no time at all. maybe 1 or 2 bets TOTAL. Ok add 30min per YEAR again

Lastly, if he has a personal limit for tables he can play at once before losing profitability, and assuming SBR demands a similar slice of his attention, adding a SBR table is still taking away a cash table he could be maintaining at a higher winrate.

this is the question, and i disagree

All these things together don't suggest it's profitable for a pro poker player to add a SBR table for this level of points. Even your math here (ignoring all the things I pointed out) shows that he'd be giving up to ~70% of a table's worth of EV if he doesn't win, and seeing only ~20% extra value if he does. Factor in all the additional stuff I pointed out, and the decision looks terrible from a strictly financial position whether he wins or loses.

none of this matters for the overall year. we aren't counting for him losing in the first 5min of some of them. we aren't counting tables worth of winning cash ones and all that. its just as a whole

Even if we assume your math was correct, stepping back and looking at the big picture we'd have a guy who works less than half of a normal work week making good money. People in situations like that usually find things to fill their time that are nor profitable, such as spending it on recreation. If we accept that people spend money for fun, why would it be any less reasonable for people to have fun spending less or making a tiny profit? I bring that up because it's my experience...before playing to pay the bills, poker was a great hobby because it was recreation that didn't cost me anything and actually made money. Some stuff to think about

we cannot argue my OP vs the recreational side. I am proving it is not recreation.


We both agree the numbers i gave him for cash games are really high so adjusted, the sbrpoker added is a huge increase.



my guess would be atleast double the hours worked. so 6 hours for 8333

$1388/hr

i was at 4900/2hrs....2450/hr at table here

3500 of it he might win 20% of time, is fair?

$700 + 1400 = $2100/2hrs

$1050/hr for year here

These are not recreational numbers

[RudyRuetigger]

and my last post is overly generous still

6hrs for 5 days = $100k

only giving him 20% chance to win leaderboard, even tho he took 3:1 some

[RudyRuetigger]

actually my numbers are screwed up in your favor. i only added $100 for 30min of cash game here for the year, not $1000

it would actually make the sbr table more profitable

[JAKEPEAVY21]

and my last post is overly generous still

6hrs for 5 days = $100k

only giving him 20% chance to win leaderboard, even tho he took 3:1 some

I think his chances are lower than that, 10% at most...quite a few players here can and will give him a run for his money

[RudyRuetigger]

actually i did not fukkin count the times he loses the yearly bet, meaning his pay out to people

fukk this i am out

but i think it clearly shows it is not a recreational move

[RudyRuetigger]

if he is playing $10sng or something, i think this proves at the absolute very worst, the sbr poker game would be like adding a $7 game

[RudyRuetigger]

I think his chances are lower than that, 10% at most...quite a few players here can and will give him a run for his money

i dont believe that

looking at year end leaderboard you guys have about 4 or 5 real good ones.

also have 4 or 5 real good ones but they dont play all the time so cant win it

also have 4 or 5 that just trying to place and will never catch the first 4 or 5

[RudyRuetigger]

i dont believe that

looking at year end leaderboard you guys have about 4 or 5 real good ones.

also have 4 or 5 real good ones but they dont play all the time so cant win it

also have 4 or 5 that just trying to place and will never catch the first 4 or 5

so imo there could be 1 in 10, but you dont have 10 that play all the time

[RudyRuetigger]

actually my numbers are screwed up in your favor. i only added $100 for 30min of cash game here for the year, not $1000

it would actually make the sbr table more profitable

actually i did not fukkin count the times he loses the yearly bet, meaning his pay out to people

fukk this i am out

but i think it clearly shows it is not a recreational move

if anyone does the math, dont forget i mentioned these left out


i swayed numbers to be in his favor.

if i could do them how i want, id say 70k and 30 hours a week
with usa out, not many can grind sngs so 70k is high, esp depending on country if he does/doesnt get screwed in taxes on it/own health insurance

[Triple_D_Bet]

this all proves my point

ok add 30 minutes per day to my total, but if he is making 100k in a year, ill expect you to add $1000 to my end total that he makes from the rolling over. so $4900/2hrs


huh? so it took him what, 20 posts to get the bet?? yea add 30min to the YEARLY total then

already said this two lines up

i have a long thread on how to turn freeplays into cash risk free for 70-80%. Seeing we are giving him 100k per year and living in europe, he can scalp all that out for 100%, but ok ill give you 90%. $5k sportsbook cash is not much and to scalp that out would take no time at all. maybe 1 or 2 bets TOTAL. Ok add 30min per YEAR again

this is the question, and i disagree


none of this matters for the overall year. we aren't counting for him losing in the first 5min of some of them. we aren't counting tables worth of winning cash ones and all that. its just as a whole



we cannot argue my OP vs the recreational side. I am proving it is not recreation.


We both agree the numbers i gave him for cash games are really high so adjusted, the sbrpoker added is a huge increase.



my guess would be atleast double the hours worked. so 6 hours for 8333

$1388/hr

i was at 4900/2hrs....2450/hr at table here

3500 of it he might win 20% of time, is fair?

$700 + 1400 = $2100/2hrs

$1050/hr for year here

These are not recreational numbers

More tables and more hours does prove your point, just pointing it out in fairness to what follows

Likewise, 30 minutes per day to rollover is probably a bit too much, can definitely be done quicker if doing months worth at a time....i'd say 10 minutes per tournament tops.

20 posts to get the bet maybe, and how many afterwards has he/will he spend defending it, responding to your questions, etc?

Not aware of how he's supposed to rollover 5x in 1 or 2 bets for 70-80% value. Assuming that's the case, then sure it doesn't take much time, but you have to discount the money won by 20-30% as well.

There are definitely times when he won't last 1.5 hours; but ~70 minutes per is a better estimate I think (based on average length of tournament required to pull down average cash; if we assume 30k points won over 200 tournaments, 150 point average cash is going to take over an hour on average, probably about an hour 10 or so).

Recreation is whatever people want it to be, and making money at something instead of spending it doesn't make it any less fun...again, telling you this from personal experience. I was making more than my hourly playing for fun before I decided to do it for a living, and it's a fairly common way people got into it professionally (don't know if that's still the case in today's environment).

Your math at the end shouldn't be per hour; for example, $8,333 per table per year is at 15 hours per week per table, or about 750 hours per year per table. $8,333/750 is ~$11/hr/table. Not that it matters really, the only thing of importance to your point is the winrate per table of real cash vs SBR....let's look at that:

Let's assume 70 minutes per tournament for 200 tournaments (14000 minutes) with 30k winnings, rolling that 30k into 37.5k in 2000 more minutes and cashing out 72.5k points for $5k sportsbook cash, and only an hour to roll that over into $4k cash). That leaves us with $4k cash for $15/table/hour, compared to his assumed $11 for cash tables for ~35% increase. That's not counting any time spent posting regarding it, assumes everyone pays, assumes he does things about as efficiently as possible (which he doesn't seem to be doing at least when it comes to rollover) and it assumes he wins the bet in the first place.

Let's say he loses with 20k won, reasonable losing scenario if he doesn't give up early. He still spends that time above, but only has 15k to his name after paying out. In this scenario and at the same rates above, he's cashing out ~20%, or $800 in cash, or $3/table/hour.

Combine the win and loss calcs and he needs to be about 66% sure he'll win the annual bet just to break even, with more certainty being a profit and meaning it was a good decision, but even with 100% certainty it's not a very significant difference (only a 3% increase in annual winnings). You could change a lot of assumptions to alter the math either way (assume he makes less per table-hour at sngs, assume more or less posting in future, rolling over sub- or super-optimally, factor in the uncertainty in being able to get 10k worth of action at 3.5:1 in the first place as a complete unknown, factor in minor value from contest end tournaments, increase difficulty in rolling over and cashing out)...but you'd have to make some lopsided assumptions to arrive at the conclusion he planned this purely for financial reasons. For that to be the case, he would have had to make all these decisions before the challenge was offered, going up against a field he doesn't seem to have paid any attention to in previous years, and somehow conclude that all this uncertainty and hassle was somehow better than simply adding one more table to his lineup for an hour every day. It just doesn't make much sense

[RudyRuetigger]

my 8333/table was to avoid doing more dividing

you are way off saying he can only get 70-80% value of the freeplay. if you ask points forum guys they will say between 90-110% depending how much or little time they wanna spend

good to see you added the loss, it definitely lowers and brings more figuring. but as you say the numbers can be manipulated any direction (except the scalping numbers)

[Triple_D_Bet]

my 8333/table was to avoid doing more dividing

you are way off saying he can only get 70-80% value of the freeplay. if you ask points forum guys they will say between 90-110% depending how much or little time they wanna spend

good to see you added the loss, it definitely lowers and brings more figuring. but as you say the numbers can be manipulated any direction (except the scalping numbers)

I took similar small adjustments in both directions to make the math easier. I don't know about the scalping, but even 110% only lowers the required certainty of winning to 45% and raises the max increase in yearly winnings by ~5%...which is still unreasonably high to expect. Toss in all the other factors, most of which lower the expected payout, and it seems very unlikely there's any way this was a calculated solely-financially-based decision. Like I said, who would choose to add this much uncertainty when the best improvement they could see if everything went right was +5%, and they stood more likely to lose up to 5% instead? There's enough uncertainty in pro poker without looking for more

[JoeyBagels]

How about something much simpler?
Why doesn't sniper post some of his screen names and the sites he plays.
I have asked for them in the past but never received an answer unfortunately.
It would clear up a lot of claims and assumptions being made on both sides.

As it stands the only change I have seen since the various threads have been created are the following posters immediately change their tournament habits:
Alessdo (sp?)
Ivanloko
Lsu4ever
Luisballo

[Auto Donk]

[Triple_D_Bet]

How about something much simpler?
Why doesn't sniper post some of his screen names and the sites he plays.
I have asked for them in the past but never received an answer unfortunately.
It would clear up a lot of claims and assumptions being made on both sides.

As it stands the only change I have seen since the various threads have been created are the following posters immediately change their tournament habits:
Alessdo (sp?)
Ivanloko
Lsu4ever
Luisballo

This discussion is more of a thought exercise doing the math on some hypotheticals...wouldn't expect snipe to provide any proof just for this. The allegations of foul play are different, and from what I've seen, not enough evidence for court of public opinion to convict...balls in SBRs court on that one.

[snip3r2006]

How about something much simpler?
Why doesn't sniper post some of his screen names and the sites he plays.
I have asked for them in the past but never received an answer unfortunately.
It would clear up a lot of claims and assumptions being made on both sides.

As it stands the only change I have seen since the various threads have been created are the following posters immediately change their tournament habits:
Alessdo (sp?)
Ivanloko
Lsu4ever
Luisballo

1) you work fo germna finace authority ???
2) i dont care what these guys do ... but you talk like its a fact they played with me all the time ... but thats a lie !!!

[Auto Donk]

sbr needs to simply post all significant chip moving hands of the Four Horseman.... how they lost their chips in their trnys for the month of Jan., 2016, including exposure of all player's hole cards in those hands.....

the court of public opinion will be swift, I can assure you, in either clearing Snipe or burying him.....

[Jedi Mind Picks]

[QUOTE=RudyRuetigger;25287095
How many hours does he play? We already gave him $100k winnings but ok lets go low,.he great at it

Lets say he works 3hours per day, 5 days a week.

[/QUOTE]

[snip3r2006]

sbr needs to simply post all significant chip moving hands of the Four Horseman.... how they lost their chips in their trnys for the month of Jan., 2016, including exposure of all player's hole cards in those hands.....

the court of public opinion will be swift, I can assure you, in either clearing Snipe or burying him.....

THIS ... but not just the hands against me .. ... all hands played by LSU guy pls!!!

[katstale]

I was unwitting dupe of SBR today. First hand I helped him/them:
***** Hand history (v1.2) ***** Hand ID 5594651 $0 + $6 Texas Hold'em (No Limit) - 15:03:00 10/02/2016 ET Table 'Table 64905', 10 seats max, Real money Seat 9 is the button. Small Blind $10, Big Blind $20 Note: seat IDs range from 1 to 10 Seat 1 (playing) : katstale, amount $1500, amount bet $0, penalty (None) Seat 2 (playing) : dare, amount $1500, amount bet $0, penalty (None) Seat 3 (playing) : snip3r2006, amount $1500, amount bet $0, penalty (None) Seat 4 (playing) : boscokid, amount $1500, amount bet $0, penalty (None) Seat 5 (playing) : Stefan, amount $1500, amount bet $0, penalty (None) Seat 6 (playing) : chico2663, amount $1500, amount bet $0, penalty (None) Seat 7 (playing) : Manosdepiedra, amount $1500, amount bet $0, penalty (None) Seat 8 (playing) : dogracin, amount $1500, amount bet $0, penalty (None) Seat 9 (playing) : dhristov211, amount $1500, amount bet $0, penalty (None) Seat 10 (playing) : BeerDog99, amount $1500, amount bet $0, penalty (None) BeerDog99: Small Blind ($10) katstale: Big Blind ($20) ** Dealing Down Cards ** Dealt to katstale: [Kc, Ks] dare: Fold snip3r2006: Raise ($60) boscokid: Fold Stefan: Fold chico2663: Fold Manosdepiedra: Fold dogracin: Fold dhristov211: Fold BeerDog99: Fold katstale: Raise [btn] ($1500) snip3r2006: Call ($1440) katstale: Show Cards ($0) snip3r2006: Show Cards ($0) ** Dealing Flop ** Community cards: [Qd, 2h, 7d] ** Dealing Turn ** Community cards: [Tc] ** Dealing River ** Community cards: [5s] ** End Round ** ** Evaluate ** katstale: Show Cards ($0) snip3r2006: Show Cards ($0) ** Showdown ** Main pot $3010, Rake $0 Summary katstale: bet $1520, won $0, net $-1520 Summary snip3r2006: bet $1500, won $3010, net $1510, HoleCards [As, Ah], HiHand [a pair of aces] [As, Ah, Qd, Tc, 7d], won $3010 from main pot </pre>

[snip3r2006]

I was unwitting dupe of SBR today. First hand I helped him/them:
***** Hand history (v1.2) ***** Hand ID 5594651 $0 + $6 Texas Hold'em (No Limit) - 15:03:00 10/02/2016 ET Table 'Table 64905', 10 seats max, Real money Seat 9 is the button. Small Blind $10, Big Blind $20 Note: seat IDs range from 1 to 10 Seat 1 (playing) : katstale, amount $1500, amount bet $0, penalty (None) Seat 2 (playing) : dare, amount $1500, amount bet $0, penalty (None) Seat 3 (playing) : snip3r2006, amount $1500, amount bet $0, penalty (None) Seat 4 (playing) : boscokid, amount $1500, amount bet $0, penalty (None) Seat 5 (playing) : Stefan, amount $1500, amount bet $0, penalty (None) Seat 6 (playing) : chico2663, amount $1500, amount bet $0, penalty (None) Seat 7 (playing) : Manosdepiedra, amount $1500, amount bet $0, penalty (None) Seat 8 (playing) : dogracin, amount $1500, amount bet $0, penalty (None) Seat 9 (playing) : dhristov211, amount $1500, amount bet $0, penalty (None) Seat 10 (playing) : BeerDog99, amount $1500, amount bet $0, penalty (None) BeerDog99: Small Blind ($10) katstale: Big Blind ($20) ** Dealing Down Cards ** Dealt to katstale: [Kc, Ks] dare: Fold snip3r2006: Raise ($60) boscokid: Fold Stefan: Fold chico2663: Fold Manosdepiedra: Fold dogracin: Fold dhristov211: Fold BeerDog99: Fold katstale: Raise [btn] ($1500) snip3r2006: Call ($1440) katstale: Show Cards ($0) snip3r2006: Show Cards ($0) ** Dealing Flop ** Community cards: [Qd, 2h, 7d] ** Dealing Turn ** Community cards: [Tc] ** Dealing River ** Community cards: [5s] ** End Round ** ** Evaluate ** katstale: Show Cards ($0) snip3r2006: Show Cards ($0) ** Showdown ** Main pot $3010, Rake $0 Summary katstale: bet $1520, won $0, net $-1520 Summary snip3r2006: bet $1500, won $3010, net $1510, HoleCards [As, Ah], HiHand [a pair of aces] [As, Ah, Qd, Tc, 7d], won $3010 from main pot

did u ever think about how to play this hand better ???

[RudyRuetigger]

what country is snip3r from, to get an idea of taxes/healthcare?