karlovic and simon game will come down to tie breaks

[pico]

karlovic has the advantage if they go to tie breaks, that is why karlovic is slight favorite. the line at pinnacle suggests that this is going to be karvolic 7-6, 7-6

the reason i say karlovic has an advantage at breaks is that during the previous rounds, karvolic (7-4,7-5 against djoker) won tie breaks more easily than simon (8-6,8-6 against ginepri).

this should be the closest match we have today. QF #1 murray was close for 2 games, then monfils just doesn't know what to do for some reason.

[LT Profits]

Why should this be any different than most other Karlovic matches?

[HeeeHAWWWW]

They played at Nottingham last year, Dr Ivo won 7-6 6-7 6-4. Neither were playing anywhere as well as they are now, Karlovic was ranked 61 (now 21), Simon was 52 (now 16).

However, Nottingham is even faster than Madrid, with old fashioned lightning quick grass. Ivo always does really well there - he won it that year, and this year too (and beating a lot of top 25 players both times). It's about as perfectly suited to his game as it's possible to get nowadays, and the fact Simon pushed him all the way is pretty impressive.

On the other hand, Simon kinda sucked on the indoor hard this year before Madrid, losing to Shwank and Mahut in first rounds, and his career indoor record is pretty terrible. In theory, faster hard courts don't suit his game, although he did superbly well on mid speed hard at the Toronto masters (semis!) and Indianapolis (winner). Lost to Del Potro in five in the third round at the US Open, and pushing a top10 player is always impressive. Nice results here also, beating Andreev, Blake and Ginepri.

Really mixed picture, all in all. I think moderate value on Simon given recent form, maybe 44/45% chance.

[pico]

karlovic has not lost a single serve game so far. simon is not that consistent with his serves. no i expect him to lose about 2-3 serve games. 7-6,7-6 is the expected score. if simon is not careful, i can see 6-4,6-3

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Yeah, Simon's serve sucks, but does he really need to do much with it? Once it gets into a rally it's all about who errors first, since neither has many weapons. I'd back Simon almost every time there, especially with the irritating low slices - very difficult for someone like Ivo to get down to.

Ivo might find it useful to slow slice (both on backhand and with forehand squash shot) off Simon's serves, and then rush the net. If he does that, it's possible to see the break.

Really undecided here, I think I'd want to bet in play.

[hoopster42]

bless you guys for giving a shit about tennis matches that are not grand slams or other major tourneys

you must be doing it for the love of tennis, not the love of the action or the profit

[pico]

ivo is over 2 meters. that is why his service is #1 in this tourney. really hard to return his serves. so if ivo's serve is on, there is no way he can lose...all he has to do is keep his serves and conserve his energy for the tie break. i think that is his strategy so far...and it worked.

it would be disgusting if he does this to nadal/feder and win cuz there is nothing you can do with his serve if you can't return it.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

it would be disgusting if he does this to nadal/feder and win cuz there is nothing you can do with his serve if you can't return it.

Hehe, he's not easy to like, yes :-)

I think you're probably safe though, as Federer on form can read Ivo's serves easily. Murray also has little problem with him - and indeed seems to enjoy lobbing him for the comic value

Against Nadal at Queens, Ivo lost despite perhaps the greatest serving performance I've ever seen: 35 aces in THREE sets!!


Anyway, Simon's chances: he's a very good returner - I think about 10th best on hard court for return games won on the tour. He's particularly good at jumping all over 2nd serves, perhaps top5 (behind Nadal, Murray, Ferrer and Federer). Thus, if I was going to bet in play, I'd be looking at Karlovic's 1st serve %. If it's at average or better (season avg 66% for him), he'll probably win. If it's worse, particularly under pressure, Simon will have enough second serves to attack.

[LT Profits]

bless you guys for giving a shit about tennis matches that are not grand slams or other major tourneys

you must be doing it for the love of tennis, not the love of the action or the profit

I do it for the love of money.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Checked some head-2-heads, and Simon's record against very tall players is excellent. 1-1 against Del Potro, 3-0 vs Cilic, 1-0 vs Hanescu, 2-1 vs Berdych (all 6'6), 1-0 vs Querrey (6'7). Never played Isner or Guccione unfortunately, they would be good comparisons.

I'll take some Simon to win 2-1, at +400. Also some over 24.5 at -125.

Edit: over23.5 better value at -130 (pinnacle)

[pico]

Checked some head-2-heads, and Simon's record against very tall players is excellent. 1-1 against Del Potro, 3-0 vs Cilic, 1-0 vs Hanescu, 2-1 vs Berdych (all 6'6), 1-0 vs Querrey (6'7). Never played Isner or Guccione unfortunately, they would be good comparisons.

I'll take some Simon to win 2-1, at +400. Also some over 24.5 at -125.

Edit: over23.5 better value at -130 (pinnacle)

wow, that went up in a hurry. it was 22.5 last night i think

[crisp]

match in 5 mins. i got ivo -155!

[EaglesPhan36]

Thank God someone took Karlovic. This was beginning to wreak of jinxation.

[pico]

all the late money are on karlovic

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Nadal just broke, serving for the match now. Looks like Karlovic-Simon will be up in 15 minutes or so.

[ZXCVBNM]

Who is on Simon then?

[pico]

karlovic is a giant. but giant moves slow, so if simon keeps in the rally, the giant will fall.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Bad, bad double fault there by Ivo, gives Simon two breakpoints. An excellent return forces the error out of Karlovic, and Simon gets the break back.

[pico]

OMG....i can't believe this. simon broke a serve. he is better than djoker now

[pico]

damn. oh well. i guess this set is gone

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Simon then throws the break right back - three bad errors, and gets broken to love. Three breaks in a row!

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Simon erroring all over the place, very unlike him.

[daggerkobe]

Simon was fantastic in this movie:

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Lol, yes, he does have something of the eyeliner look about him :-)


Ivo playing pretty well here though, if he gets through might be worth a punt on him beating Nadal.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Three breakpoints, two Karlovic aces, then a perfect demonstration of how outstanding Simon is tactically. No power in him at all, but constructed the point like a master.

[pico]

1st set simon. yes!!!!!


i can't believe he broke twice. a miracle.

[crisp]

its over for ivo.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Ivo at 62% first serve, well below his average. Needs to fix that or he loses.

[pico]

i thought simon was done for. the odds at betfair was around +500 when he got broken the 2nd time.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

rofl, Ivo did a kicker serve that bounced over Simon's head.

Needing either a karlovic 2nd set win or 7-5 either way in this set to make my over, and obviously prefer the former cos it gives my 2-1 a chance :-)

[daggerkobe]

Simon up 4-1 in final tiebreak.

[daggerkobe]

5-1

[daggerkobe]

5 MPs

[daggerkobe]

The Roman Emperor defeats Frankenstein.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Two classy tiebreakers by Simon. Karlovic choking in the big match, once again.

2 * cash, very nice :-)