AFL Round 12

ACoochy · 06-13-12, 06:43 PM

West Coast Eagles -25.5 (-110 bet365)2x

Got it at -23.5 but will play at current number. More to come. GL guys and girl...

Gee · 06-13-12, 06:52 PM

I have already played the -23.5. Can't believe it, because it was available at 22.5 when I posted and played it.

I'm going to have a unit on the Eagles 1-40 and another one at -25.5 I think. Hopefully Eagles by about 30!

hawley · 06-13-12, 06:59 PM

Good to see you two both tailing the system

quarterback · 06-13-12, 08:43 PM

West coast over 15.5 here I was looking for a line of over 17.5 I'm getting over 15.5 @ $1.50 or would I be smarter playing -25.5 or another line

brettels · 06-13-12, 08:54 PM

1-39.5 is probably the better option

quarterback · 06-13-12, 09:03 PM

Originally posted by brettels

1-39.5 is probably the better option

I'm only a pretty small bettor unless I'm winning then I Usally play larger amounts. But I'm looking at building a bit of a bankroll I'm starting with about $50-$100

First attempt will be a decent multi hopeing to make some where around the $500-$600 mark

dRavidC · 06-13-12, 09:35 PM

public is really hammering carlton +27.5 but I think value is definitely on west coast 1-39. have a feeling it'll be a west coast victory but a lot closer than the line suggests.

Gee · 06-13-12, 10:15 PM

Why do you say public on Carlton?

If so, that mean this one is RLMing big time for the Eagles.

I would be surprised if Eagles weren't the public play... but I'd be pleased if they weren't

quarterback · 06-13-12, 10:19 PM

Originally posted by Gee

Why do you say public on Carlton?

If so, that mean this one is RLMing big time for the Eagles.

I would be surprised if Eagles weren't the public play... but I'd be pleased if they weren't

Let's cash this west coast under 39.5

MatI · 06-13-12, 10:21 PM

I read on twitter this morning that sportsbet have taken 12 times the amount of money for WC as they have for the Blues. This was referring to SU betting, but it also said it is similar numbers for the spread.

I'm pretty sure WC are the public play. But that is not very surprising.

brettels · 06-13-12, 10:45 PM

Originally posted by MatI

I read on twitter this morning that sportsbet have taken 12 times the amount of money for WC as they have for the Blues. This was referring to SU betting, but it also said it is similar numbers for the spread.

I'm pretty sure WC are the public play. But that is not very surprising.

was that from sportsbet themselves? i follow them on twitter and havent seen such a tweet

Coopertrooper · 06-13-12, 10:51 PM

The blues 2 inclusions have seen them nite back a little, line back to -23.5 with sportsbet.

I can't see them being fit, so think it would be even more reason to be against them. Think I'll play another unit on it, and might chuck it into a few small multis. Lets get this

MatI · 06-13-12, 10:53 PM

Originally posted by brettels

was that from sportsbet themselves? i follow them on twitter and havent seen such a tweet

It was a Sportal tweet, linking to this article - http://www.sportal.com.au/bz-opinion...m-blues-181736

brettels · 06-13-12, 10:55 PM

Originally posted by MatI

It was a Sportal tweet, linking to this article - http://www.sportal.com.au/bz-opinion...m-blues-181736

Thanks, good article!

dRavidC · 06-13-12, 11:03 PM

Originally posted by Gee

Why do you say public on Carlton?

If so, that mean this one is RLMing big time for the Eagles.

I would be surprised if Eagles weren't the public play... but I'd be pleased if they weren't

i was just referring to tab odds. odds for carlton +27.5 down to 1.75 and west coast -27.5 at 2.10.

Gee · 06-13-12, 11:15 PM

<s style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(102, 181, 210); ">#</s>SportingbetBigBets $10,000 <s style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(102, 181, 210); ">@</s>Carlton_FC +24.5 @ $1.91

Poor punter.

Dravid: I still don't understand your first post. So people are betting a badly off number? What is that meant to mean? Its like saying (in respect of yesterdays NBA game) that everybody is pounding Miami +7 (line was +5). Its meaningless and misleading to say the public are on Carlton.

Lookingtostart · 06-13-12, 11:22 PM

Gee, what's the weather like up there? Forecast is rain and possible thunderstorms. O/U at 168.5 on Bet 365.

dRavidC · 06-13-12, 11:26 PM

well if the public weren't pounding carlton +27.5 then the number wouldn't be down to whatever it is now am i right? but then again i'm no expert when it comes to line movement so i could be totally wrong. i just look at the number thats been given to me and take it from there.

when i say public are on, i mean there is a greater % of bets coming in for a particular side - sorry for the confusion.

brettels · 06-13-12, 11:34 PM

basically what was said by TAB twitter is 10k has been put on carlton at those odds to cover. Tweet before that saying money coming in on carlton ML to cause the upset which shortened those odds.

Attached Files

Gee · 06-13-12, 11:39 PM

LTS: The weather is sunny now and has been getting better since the storm passed yesterday, but I wouldn't be making a bet on the weather right now. It could turn quickly. I won't be playing a total tonight.

Dravid: It matters a lot less when the book you are looking at is offering an off number. From what I saw, 27.5 was miles off, so of course Carlton were getting pounded there. You also need to consider where it opened at and where it has moved. Also consider what other books are doing. I think the movement and public pounded you talk about is meaningless when it is an off number.

Coopertrooper · 06-14-12, 01:00 AM

I like the under tonight, decided not to back the eagles again, but put that unit on the under. Taking the totals from their games, the average was around 175 from memory. Big ground, possibility of rain and greasey conditions. Adds up to a good night to be on the under to me.

GL tonight everyone!

hawley · 06-14-12, 01:01 AM

Not sure what I like yet.

Model says Eagles.

Gee · 06-14-12, 01:15 AM

Originally posted by hawley

Not sure what I like yet.

Model says Eagles.

Well that was a surprise.

You may want to run some regression tests against u/18 degrees and winds o/25 km/ph. Let me know what you come up with pal. I suspect this will affect your Z line co-efficient on the total, which will probably skew some of your spread percentages.

hawley · 06-14-12, 01:29 AM

Originally posted by Gee

Well that was a surprise.

You may want to run some regression tests against u/18 degrees and winds o/25 km/ph. Let me know what you come up with pal. I suspect this will affect your Z line co-efficient on the total, which will probably skew some of your spread percentages.

I will have the team run some regression analysis now.

Hoping for a t-score between 40 and 60.

ACoochy · 06-14-12, 02:24 AM

Channel 7 pumping up Blues BIGTIME on tv...Like eagles even more now

hawley · 06-14-12, 02:26 AM

Coochy

shari91 · 06-14-12, 02:28 AM

Eagles -22.5 for me. Until Carlton shows some of their early season form I can't back my boys any more.

Forgot the Footy Show was on last night so I feel it's already a bad start to my footy wknd. Hate these matches on kooky days.

GL everyone!!

quarterback · 06-14-12, 02:32 AM

Originally posted by shari91

Eagles -22.5 for me. Until Carlton shows some of their early season form I can't back my boys any more.

Forgot the Footy Show was on last night so I feel it's already a bad start to my footy wknd. Hate these matches on kooky days.

GL everyone!!

Where did you get -22.5 from

shari91 · 06-14-12, 02:33 AM

Originally posted by quarterback

Where did you get -22.5 from

Sportingbet about a minute before I made the post. It's still there

Gee · 06-14-12, 02:37 AM

Just started pissing down heavily. Been on and off all day, but it looks pretty bleak out there now.

I'm about 2-3km's from the oval now.

I would assume that this is part of the reason for the Carlton line drop - wet weather = close game.

Quite a few books are down to 22.5 now.

quarterback · 06-14-12, 02:38 AM

Originally posted by shari91

Sportingbet about a minute before I made the post. It's still there

That's a awesome line to have

shari91 · 06-14-12, 02:42 AM

Originally posted by Gee

Just started pissing down heavily. Been on and off all day, but it looks pretty bleak out there now.

I'm about 2-3km's from the oval now.

I would assume that this is part of the reason for the Carlton line drop - wet weather = close game.

Quite a few books are down to 22.5 now.

WHERE WAS THIS INFO BEFORE I MADE MY BET YOU TOSSER???

Nah seriously I'd much rather risk losing with the Eagles on this one even in shitty weather. 4 goals to cover is doable I think. But I'm going to put a bit on 1-39 just in case.

Gee · 06-14-12, 03:02 AM

I posted as soon as it started raining.

Its stopped raining, but is still extremely dark outside.

Perth never rains solidly for long periods, but it will still be slippery.

Great minds think alike - read up - I'm on the 1-39 for a unit and -23.5 for 2.

raydog · 06-14-12, 03:07 AM

-22.5 (-105) at pinny... -23 at 5dimes.... couldnt make me play them right now...thats a lot of money on the Blues today...

Eagles 1-39 (+120) for this sleepy shonky

Coopertrooper · 06-14-12, 03:09 AM

Good to hear, I hit the under an hour ago for 4 units, pretty happy with that now. It is still sitting at the same number, could be even more value there now!