Celtics will close it out in Game 6

[brahmabull117]

I'm not touching game 7

When somebody gives you free money, you don't say no for god fcking sakes



Home teams in the NBA win game 7 at an 80% clip - yes 80% clip. This is a huge sample size as well - you auto-bet this line based on that alone


The Celtics record in game 7s at home under the big 3 of KG/Pierce/Allen is flawless


The 76ers have no game 7 experience like this on the road



The line for this game will be about - 250, it should be - 900. There is almost no chance of Philly winning this game

[coop]

pinnacle: Boston Celtics

-5.5

-261

[brahmabull117]

pinnacle: Boston Celtics

-5.5

-261

max out every damn book you can get your hands on. Boston won't lose that game

[crustyme]

sixers ml is a gift.

brahmakerry will have another -300 loser.

[brahmabull117]

sixers ml is a gift.

brahmakerry will have another -300 loser.

You think + 230 or 240 is good value for a very inexperienced team playing on the road against a very experienced team in a game 7 situation, when teams in game 7 at home win at an 80% rate in the NBA regardless?

[t-wizzle]

Brah are you taking the celtics? I need your expertise.

[brahmabull117]

Brah are you taking the celtics? I need your expertise.

Home MLs less than -400 in the NBA playoffs game 7s should be an autoplay guys. There's a huge sample size for game 7s and the home teams win much more often than not



In this case, it's a very experienced team playing at home against a very inexperienced team. The odds double in that case. I can look up occasions like this with a very experienced team playing a not so experienced team at home and the home team wins like 90% of the time. Just look at the Lakers against Denver

[t-wizzle]

Home MLs less than -400 in the NBA playoffs game 7s should be an autoplay guys. There's a huge sample size for game 7s and the home teams win much more often than not



In this case, it's a very experienced team playing at home against a very inexperienced team. The odds double in that case. I can look up occasions like this with a very experienced team playing a not so experienced team at home and the home team wins like 90% of the time. Just look at the Lakers against Denver

Do some research for me please. I like where you're going with this. Let me know what you find.

[brahmabull117]

Do some research for me please. I like where you're going with this. Let me know what you find.

Playoff teams with more experience playing game 7 at home in recent history

Wins
Lakers against Denver 2012
Boston against Atlanta 2008
Boston against Cleveland 2008
Boston against Chicago 2009
Lakers over Rockets 2009
San Antonio over New Orleans 2008


Losses - I really can't find any in recent history. Boston lost to Orlando in 2009 I believe in a game 7 at home but they were playing without KG so I'm not sure if that counts. Memphis lost to the Clippers at home this year but they really don't have that much more experience than LAC


So you're looking at basically 6 wins and maybe 1 or 2 losses, where neither loss looked like a sure thing for the home team. - 260 is just a magnificent value in this case

[t-wizzle]

Playoff teams with more experience playing game 7 at home in recent history

Wins
Lakers against Denver 2012
Boston against Atlanta 2008
Boston against Cleveland 2008
Boston against Chicago 2009
Lakers over Rockets 2009
San Antonio over New Orleans 2008


Losses - I really can't find any in recent history. Boston lost to Orlando in 2009 I believe in a game 7 at home but they were playing without KG so I'm not sure if that counts. Memphis lost to the Clippers at home this year but they really don't have that much more experience than LAC


So you're looking at basically 6 wins and maybe 1 or 2 losses, where neither loss looked like a sure thing for the home team. - 260 is just a magnificent value in this case

So it can happen then? The home fave can lose Game 7 at home or is it a fluke thing?

[crustyme]

You think + 230 or 240 is good value for a very inexperienced team playing on the road against a very experienced team in a game 7 situation, when teams in game 7 at home win at an 80% rate in the NBA regardless?

road team is 7-14 since 2005 (.333) with clippers taking game 7 at memphis recently. and you are like .100 on these picks so that makes it .750 probability for sixers upset.

[brahmabull117]

So it can happen then? The home fave can lose Game 7 at home or is it a fluke thing?

Well fck anything can happen. My point is that playoff experience is just huge. It's very rare to find an upset like this with a veteran team playing at home losing a game 7 against a very young team that's clearly not as good



Keep in mind Boston is 3-0 in game 7s at home under the big 3 era. I'm not gonna count the game against Orlando cause KG was out IIRC

[ShogunRua]

it should be - 900.

[dlunc3]

Well fck anything can happen. My point is that playoff experience is just huge. It's very rare to find an upset like this with a veteran team playing at home losing a game 7 against a very young team that's clearly not as good



Keep in mind Boston is 3-0 in game 7s at home under the big 3 era. I'm not gonna count the game against Orlando cause KG was out IIRC

how is this clear?

[Pauulzcappin]

Triple up on the Boston moneyline for game 7



The odds of Boston losing a game 7 at home with all their experience and their phenomenal record in game 7s is literally nonexistent. The line is gonna be - 250, it should really like - 900

Unreal. JUST UNREAL.

[coop]

What was the series price for Boston to win prior to tonight's game?

[Squirrel Kokomo]

Brahma, you went back about 10 games in your stats, and thank you for taking the time to respond seriously to twizzle. Could you go back a bit further in your research with teams that are MORE experienced? I think you have something here that the home fave in a game 7 almost NEVER loses, but a 10 game sample is a bit small. Thanks

[brahmabull117]

Brahma, you went back about 10 games in your stats, and thank you for taking the time to respond seriously to twizzle. Could you go back a bit further in your research with teams that are MORE experienced? I think you have something here that the home fave in a game 7 almost NEVER loses, but a 10 game sample is a bit small. Thanks

Well, It's hard for me to go back to say 2003 cause I don't necessarily remember the rosters of all those teams and it's hard for me to know which was more experienced and which was not


However, the stats in NBA history do indicate that game 7s are won about 80% of the time by the home team. In recent history overall, the numbers are not as good but alot of the game 7 road wins were somewhat predictable - Orlando was really a better team when Boston was playing without KG, Memphis and LAC were very evenly matched when LAC won on the road, etc...



I think you will find very few straight upsets in game 7s like this in NBA history with a better, more experienced team facing a very very inexperienced team. Just based on that sample size, you're looking at 6-0 maybe 6-1

[Sport_Fish]

Two piece of shit teams with no hopes for making it any further, battling it out in a game 7...I think its clear to go with the more experienced team, as they are more likely to play 'less worse' than the other. And the young Philly team won't fair well in an elimination game on the road.

I think ML will have value in this game, even with the chalk.

[daimoshokage]

Sixers or no play..

Easy Money Baby!!!!!!

[Reedeman]

However, the stats in NBA history do indicate that game 7s are won about 80% of the time by the home team. In recent history overall, the numbers are not as good but alot of the game 7 road wins were somewhat predictable - Orlando was really a better team when Boston was playing without KG, Memphis and LAC were very evenly matched when LAC won on the road, etc...



I think you will find very few straight upsets in game 7s like this in NBA history with a better, more experienced team facing a very very inexperienced team. Just based on that sample size, you're looking at 6-0 maybe 6-1

If you're playing -400 ml you're gonna need to win at least 75% over time to break even with this system of yours. Yes you win your first three but as soon as you lose the fourth you're back where you started..

You seem smart enough; why don't you figure out an over/under system that doesn't require so much risk.

[No coincidences]

Triple up on the Boston moneyline for game 7



The odds of Boston losing a game 7 at home with all their experience and their phenomenal record in game 7s is literally nonexistent. The line is gonna be - 250, it should really like - 900

Speechless.

SBR cartoon character.

[t-wizzle]

Speechless.

SBR cartoon character.

[beerman2619]

Brahma are you kidding me? This Celtics team looks like garbage old washed up DONE!!!!!!!!! Ray Allen needs to retire he is getting schooled by some of these young 76er guys i've never heard of. Time to rebuild in Boston there championship window has passed.

[Dmoneytx]

Celtics looked horrible last night. I have never seen SO many missed open shots before. It was unbelievable. And ev1 thinks laying -300 with a team that look THAT bad is the next great play??? Last night hurt. I was all locked and loaded on LTA's Under, when I changed my mind at the last second bec Twizz had his "play of the year".......... last night hurt. BOL ev1.

[ChalkyDog]

Bull, I am chasing game 6 - part of the strategy. However, Boston is not flawless in game 7's. They are 3 and 2 with the big 3.

My take: Boston couldn't hit a shot to save its life in the second half, and it had nothing to do with Philly's D. They were bricking wide open looks. The same way everyone was saying "no way bass, etc shoot like that in game 6" I am taking a similar analysis and saying no way in hell Boston shoots that poorly. With the game/season/etc on the line, I trust the vets.

Good luck to the Boston backers!

[jmp]

Isn't the line pretty obvious? Vegas wants people to unload on Boston.

[lakerboy]

You know ur in trouble when bass is a go to guy.

[thetrinity]

-900 here huh brahma that would make -350 look pretty good i guess

[Dmoneytx]

No shit! Why the F was Bass taking all those shots last night with Garnett, Peirce, Allen, Rondo, etc.... on the floor??? He took so many shots at the last second, I KNEW the Celtic backers were in a shit load of trouble. And what's up with KG missing almost EVERY damn shot last night??? Is that really his bread & butter shot, the freaking 21 foot 2 ponter??? He missed that over and over and over and over last night. I turned it off at several points, it was sickening.....

[Dmoneytx]

Sorry, but it was NOT Phillys defense last night. The Boston Celtics look like an bottom dwellar, horrible jump shooting team last night. Boston just looked plain horrible. But somehow that ALL changes and they become the superstars of old a day or so later bec it is in Boston??? Hard to back a team that played the way I saw them play last night. They wouldn't of beaten New Orleans last night. Just my opinion......

[TheMoneyShot]

I agree with what you're saying BRAH! But... Boston looked flat as fuk out there in Philly last night. Boston better drink their Ensure before they take the floor Saturday night.

[t-wizzle]

Celtics looked horrible last night. I have never seen SO many missed open shots before. It was unbelievable. And ev1 thinks laying -300 with a team that look THAT bad is the next great play??? Last night hurt. I was all locked and loaded on LTA's Under, when I changed my mind at the last second bec Twizz had his "play of the year".......... last night hurt. BOL ev1.

Wasn't even close to my play of the year bud

[Petey Wheatstraw]

[Dmoneytx]

Sorry, I actually got myslef confused. IT was LTA"s play of the year & I somehow thought it was yours. My mistake for saying Under all day & then bailing out at the last second. Wish i didn't go back to this damn computer one more time. Your write up was so confident, once I read it I switched to Celtics. 100% my fault, I know better than that!!!