1. 01-03-11 02:16 PM #1
    KingKolzig
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    Orange Bowl prop alert!!!!!

    Your friend KingKolzig brings you another tasty prop treat for tonights game. Im 4-0 in props that i post at sbr and i have a solid play for tonights Orange Bowl.

    Darren Evans o65.5 rush yds (-115) 5dimes




    I love this prop for a multitude of reasons. First off Evans (projected 4th round pick) is tested and reliable. He has the highest yds per carry on the team (5.9) for 62.8 yds per game. However he will see in my estimation 40% more workload tonight then as usual. He averages 11 carries a game in the three back system. However future NFL'er Ryan Williams is hobbled by a hamstring injury that will limit him to a handful if any carries. This isnt a belichick injury gag he is really hurt. Since arriving in Miami it has only gotten worse. Add on the 3rd running back David Wilson has been suspended for the first quarter after breaking curfew last week. He is officially out for the 1st quarter. I expect 16+ carries for Evans tonight, and that could go as high as 20+.

    VT is a running football team. Tyrod Taylor only averages 13 completions a game. The hokies running game averages 41.3 running attempts per game. Look for evans workload to be very high for tonights game. I project him at 17 carries for 85 yards.

    http://www.nbc29.com/Global/story.asp?S=13763552

    http://www.wric.com/Global/story.asp?S=13772493
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  2. 01-03-11 02:27 PM #2
    zam77
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    Not a bad angle... but don't have an acct at 5d. Bodog has it at o69.5 at -110... maybe I'll throw a unit on it. Saw your hit yesterday... nice call.

    They also have tyrod at u49.5 for -110... this sounds like it might be good to based on your play.
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  3. 01-03-11 02:35 PM #3
    blackbeSSt
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    damn king. when you book this? its already at -130
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  4. 01-03-11 02:46 PM #4
    yurnero
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    like the write up, good points, i'll throw small action on it, bol
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  5. 01-03-11 02:49 PM #5
    VegasInsider
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    I missed your prop last night, so I'm going to be on this one tonight. Reasoning makes perfect sense, especially with the other RB missing the first quarter. Hopefully VT gets the ball first and maybe two possessions in the first quarter!
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  6. 01-03-11 03:49 PM #6
    rainmaker82
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    i got in on this as well. GL everyone!!
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  7. 01-03-11 03:55 PM #7
    CarpeDime
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    hmm nice one

    great analysis
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  8. 01-03-11 03:56 PM #8
    KingKolzig
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    Quote Originally Posted by VegasInsider View Post
    I missed your prop last night, so I'm going to be on this one tonight. Reasoning makes perfect sense, especially with the other RB missing the first quarter. Hopefully VT gets the ball first and maybe two possessions in the first quarter!
    Ya that would be nice. maybe like 6 carries in the first quarter. i love RB props, especially this one cause 66 yards is very nice. if he can break a nice 15 yard carry early id love it


    Blackb its steady at -125 (5dimes) right now. i think it goes up to -140 at gametime. my limit to take it would be -145. after that the value goes out the window i think
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  9. 01-03-11 03:57 PM #9
    dfberger23
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    Good call, on it.
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  10. 01-03-11 04:00 PM #10
    rm18
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    What about when you bet Kitna under 1.5 2nd half TD's and stiffed bateman
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  11. 01-03-11 04:01 PM #11
    ShogunRua
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    That guy will get shut down tonight. <30 yards. GL though.
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  12. 01-03-11 04:02 PM #12
    yisman
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    Quote Originally Posted by zam77 View Post
    Not a bad angle... but don't have an acct at 5d. Bodog has it at o69.5 at -110... maybe I'll throw a unit on it. Saw your hit yesterday... nice call.

    They also have tyrod at u49.5 for -110... this sounds like it might be good to based on your play.
    I don't agree.


    Anyway, I'll bet the Evans prop. It's at -125 at the moment.
    Mon 1/3
    5411 D.Evans rushing yards over 65½
    -125


    BTW, BetPhoenix has the same price, if anyone wants to bet it there.

    o 65.5 -125
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  13. 01-03-11 04:06 PM #13
    yisman
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    DSI has a slightly better price.

    I should've gone there before betting.


    DARREN EVANS TOT RUSH YRDS o65-115

    I bet it before checking everywhere because these props tend to move quickly.
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  14. 01-03-11 04:07 PM #14
    SamsNCharge99
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    OVER 65.5 (-125) at 5 dimes now

    I'm on this as well

    Let's get this King
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  15. 01-03-11 04:15 PM #15
    zam77
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    Quote Originally Posted by yisman View Post
    I don't agree.


    Anyway, I'll bet the Evans prop. It's at -125 at the moment.
    Mon 1/3
    5411 D.Evans rushing yards over 65½
    -125


    BTW, BetPhoenix has the same price, if anyone wants to bet it there.

    o 65.5 -125
    I didn't end up taking it... dropped to u44.5 as I was in the book.
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  16. 01-03-11 04:29 PM #16
    RubberKettle
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    Thanks for the easy winner last night

    Gonna tail on this one too.
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  17. 01-03-11 04:38 PM #17
    d2bets
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    Nice analysis! Tailed this one at O65-115 at Bookmaker.
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  18. 01-03-11 04:46 PM #18
    2TrivBicc
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    Bookmaker now @ o65-130
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  19. 01-03-11 04:46 PM #19
    Hoja Verdes
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Nice analysis! Tailed this one at O65-115 at Bookmaker.
    Same price still available at Heritage as well.
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  20. 01-03-11 04:51 PM #20
    KingKolzig
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    Quote Originally Posted by rm18 View Post
    What about when you bet Kitna under 1.5 2nd half TD's and stiffed bateman
    how about u get ur story straight. i had no action on that bet i simply was laughing at how off his line was. amazing how many lies spread around this place. sad
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  21. 01-03-11 05:07 PM #21
    Jrod124
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    thanks King, was hoping you would have one for tonight

    That BO prop last night was genius
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  22. 01-03-11 05:28 PM #22
    Jakesteen
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    Good luck tonight. It makes sense as long as they give him enough touches.
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  23. 01-03-11 05:34 PM #23
    flocko76
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    It might not be as much a lock as you think. only 3 games he went over that by alot, 4 times just barely made it, 6 times didn't get that number. but GL
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  24. 01-03-11 05:36 PM #24
    yisman
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jakesteen View Post
    Good luck tonight. It makes sense as long as they give him enough touches.
    Silly thing to say.

    These props almost always boil down to touches.

    You're guessing more as to how much he's involved in the gameplan than the success, because any RB can run for 70 yards if he's given carries.
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  25. 01-03-11 05:55 PM #25
    Hoja Verdes
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    Still over 65 -115 at heritage.
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  26. 01-03-11 05:57 PM #26
    RudyRuetigger
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    guy has been spot on with great analysis

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  27. 01-03-11 06:00 PM #27
    KingKolzig
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    Quote Originally Posted by flocko76 View Post
    It might not be as much a lock as you think. only 3 games he went over that by alot, 4 times just barely made it, 6 times didn't get that number. but GL
    never said it was a lock at all. i said i think he will end up with 85 yards. if someone had to bet this prop there is no reason on earth to take the under. therefore the over is a solid prop play

    those numbers can be tossed as well as far as whats expected tonight. just like obomanu averaged 1.67 catches per game this season, most of those games he was the 4th wideout
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  28. 01-03-11 06:05 PM #28
    maersksealand
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    congrats for you win yesterday. I don't like your pick today...but I wish you good luck
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  29. 01-03-11 06:24 PM #29
    kiknit
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoja Verdes View Post
    Still over 65 -115 at heritage.
    I missed the boat on this one...mine has it at 71.5 (-130)
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  30. 01-03-11 06:24 PM #30
    Dex17
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    What do you think about Luck over 2.5 TD passes?
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  31. 01-03-11 06:26 PM #31
    KingKolzig
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dex17 View Post
    What do you think about Luck over 2.5 TD passes?
    saw it. i was thinking u2.5 (-140). i dont think he throws 3......but i am on VT ml, so im not taking it
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  32. 01-03-11 06:27 PM #32
    bamacards
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    good luck with this prop and thanks for posting
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  33. 01-03-11 06:31 PM #33
    fishmonger
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    Not playing this one tonight but will be rooting for ya. And then I will be mad at myself for not playing it. It's a little to much chalk now.
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  34. 01-03-11 06:34 PM #34
    shaggy3000
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    is someone on va tech's team suspended for the first quarter? i think its a runningback...?
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  35. 01-03-11 07:26 PM #35
    Marigold HD
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    Ok.....let's do this again!!!
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