you can do it , give it a shot ,keep notes
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yes i finally read about it on wiki. Doubling your stake everytime you lose to cover back previous losses. Even the article wrote it's only fesible if you have an infinite bankroll and if one has an infinite amount of money then what's the pt of even betting since he already has all the money.Comment -
Entertainment only for most.Comment -
Well 1st off you cannot live in USA or you have ZERO shot
You need access to approx 20 books all over the world
You need a professional paid line service
You need 3 monitors minimum
You need bank accounts in various Countries
GAME OVER for 98%Comment -
False, most of my $$$ is made with my locals,I do not trust my big $$$ off shore for many of reasons.........Comment -
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reverse martingale might just be crazy enough to work. give it a try guys.Comment -
its possible but hard, thats the short and sweet version.
not any of this martingale bullshit.Comment -
Not one of those is valid.
You need multiple outs with lines that arent always the same. Doesnt matter where they are. If you have 3 or 4 locals that deal different lines that is a good start. But in reality you only need two places that have lines that differ enough to make a profit.
I had maybe 6 outs (not counting Vegas books) when I was gambling full time. For the most part of those 11 or 12 lines I had access to I still made most of my plays at just two places in 98% of the bets I made. Sometimes one joint was enough. I probably made 40% of all my bets through Pinnacle, on both sides of the same game.
In over 11 years of doing it I never ever subscribed or even looked at an odds screen. Total fantasy and stuff that wannabe 'sharp' guys claim is absolutely necessary. So thinking you need one is just wrong. Most guys are reactionary anyway so by the time you see a move somehwere and verify that it is a major move and will effect the line everywhere its too late for you to make abet anyway. Plus if you bet steam enough your going to get booted from most places whether you win or lose.
If youre still betting offshore and live in the US dont use any books that are open to US players. You need to use the ones that are closed to US players. There is a reason why theyre closed but not for the reasons most people think. The only real logistical issue is banking and getting them money. Which is easily bypassed if you know people.
But if youre a beginner and on a limited bankroll then I would find a few locals. Then you bet early and watch the lines an hour or two before game time and right up until they start to find your spots to play back. Youll have to learn where to bet early and where to bet late especially with local guys. But if one guy is exposing himself have a friend put in the second bets for you with him. Just dont make it too obvious.
When youre looking for a steady income then that is what you get a steady income. Look to make 40-50 bux a day with little to no risk each and every day. That is easy to do even with a minimal bankroll. With a 10K bankroll and some common sense there isnt any reason why anyone who claims to know gambling cant average a hundred bux a day gambling, even in this lean time of the industry. That equates to about 35K a year for people who fail math, tax free. So equivalent to a 60K a year 'job' in a normal state that has a state income tax. Which is obviously way above the national average.
Also if youre weak minded or easily swayed stay off the forums. because then you get caught up in the hyperbole and trying to outdo each other with the sensationalist picks.
No guy that ever wrote the topic "this wins or I quit posting" in a topic header has made a dime gambling.Comment -
The best I have done made me enough money to buy gas.Comment -
Yes, very possible. Not not easy.[B][B]They key isn't getting rich quick. The key is getting rich slowly, and enjoying it.
[/B][/B][SIZE=1][URL="http://forum.sbrforum.com/sbr-points/490161-points-available-loan.html#post4633361"][/URL][/SIZE]Comment -
perhaps we should talk about anaylzing matches.
I mostly bet on soccer. I'm not american so american football is alien to me. Basketball is kind of tough.
So it's soccer. I think in this instance one shouldn't be stumbling in the dark when it comes to sports betting cos even someone that doesn't know anything on any sport can learn something in an instant using google. The martingale and reverse is all good and that's if you're just betting randomly like playing jackpot for example just pressing a button or pulling a lever until it hits.
I'm sure a bit of research like 1 hr of reading on some teams could come in useful.
Btw big ufc fight coming up brock lesnar vs overeem. 50-50 chance if you don't know the fighters cos there's no draw. Yet once the fighters names are revealed in this case it's easier to make a decision. Odds favor overeem and they are low at 1.6. Safest bet to take since the other one deals in how many rounds the fight will take.Comment -
the only problem is actually putting in money to consistently win don't you think so?
I mean 100 bucks a day is really cool but the problem is will you win 100 a day?
take a match today. Southampton vs bristol. It's the Npower league in the UK and southampton is the best team in the league and has won all home matches and is up against bristol and they give hampton 1.44 vs like 15 for bristol to win.
Guess what happens. Hampton lost 1-0 today to bristol. They lose their first ever home game. Imagine the ppl that lost on this game.
all right i re-read your post and you mentioned you bet both sides of a game so let's say a game of soccer you would be betting on both team A and B to win and how does that actually help you win money since one team would have higher odds than the other.
Frankly i suppose it's not even the bets themselves and not the teams or anything involved. I have noticed for this thread that nobody is even talking about teams or how to analyze any games but rather on how much to stake in every game.
I would rather go on a low winning margin. Say winnning 20% of all my bets so i would win 2 out of 10 bets and still make money. I'm thinking how is this possible? If i just win 2 out of 10 bets there's no way i can be making money.Last edited by jones24; 12-30-11, 04:57 PM.Comment -
It is going to take 3 basic qualities:
1) An above average ability to select winning bets.
There are several approaches to this but the most common are a) Basic Handicapping, b) Statistical Modeling and c) Odds/line tracking. All of these have their own strengths and weaknesses.
Simply taking the view that Southamption is the best team in the league and Bristol City are inferior, so I will bet on Southamption isn't going to be a winning strategy. Everyone can see that Southampton is the better team and the odds reflect that. If the odds on Southamption were 1.50 (-200) then you have to establish whether Southampton would win this game at least 67 times out 100.
2) A reasonable understanding of mathematics/statistics.
For different matchups there are many different types of bet some of which have a close relationship/correlation to each other. If the odds on Southampton to win the above match were 1.50, but they were 1.26 as a PK (draw no bet) and 2.48 -1.5 goals, which one of these offer the best value and why? (I am not asking you to answer this question but to think about how you would establish the answer).
3) Sensible money management and good discipline
This should go without saying.
There are no shortcuts, it is going to take a lot of work to get to the stage where you have even the slightest chance of consistently beating the books.Comment -
If youre truly looking to make a steady check from sports gambling you have to bet both sides of the same game. Odds or spread or vig on spreads has to offer either no vig or a vig so small it is irrelevant. Scalping and arbitraging are the obvious ones. But trying to middle totals or even spreads with reduced vig are also viable. Especially in NCAA hoops, although the chances have been lessened a lot the past couple years. BUT you get a total like 144 -105, and you sit around or by some chance you see 149 -105 you take a shot. Basically you make your bread and butter off MLs where you cannot lose and then take shots on games like this with a 3% or less risk. But 3% for 4 middle numbers and 2 sides is a no brainer. It will still require take a lead and a slight leap of faith but with spread type plays your lead number has to always have a low vig attached to it, so it allows for more leeway on the buy back if you dont get a decent move.
But with 10K baseball is easy. As long as youre good at picking the right side (the side that is going to get bet). Here is a sample of what you might do. You see 3 games where you think moves will occur. One is -165/+155, one is -125/118, another is -145/136. You shoot on the dog in the first game for 775, you take the fav in game 2 for 2500, and the last game you take the dog for 1000. You wait around for the lines to move. Game one eventually get to -148/+139 bet 1180 @-148, that locks you in for 22 bux. Game 2 you get -140/130, bet 1956 @ +130 that locks you in for 43.50 so 2 games 6400 invested 65.5 guaranteed. These are on really small moves, but positive moves. Now we could look at game 3 and say you get a 'bad move' against you and you have to eject and it costs you say 33 bux. You still made a profit of 32.5. Or we could say that the line moved 15 cents you got a 4 cent scalp, so have a -132 fav. So 1000 @ +136 and 1345 @ -132, that gets you 17 bux and change. So a total of around 85 dollars profit. With 8761 put into action.
Now in this example I had all 3 with a positive move for you, but they were really small moves. In some cases you might only take 2 leads and get one really big one and one that you have to each a few cents. So if you take a -130/122 game and it goes to -152/143 and you took a 5200 lead on the fav at -130, youre looking at a 215 dollar return on that game alone. With a lead like that you obviously have to bet any other game relatively small but for sake of argument say you bet a game -135/126 2025 on the fave -135, but the line goes the wrong way and you have to eject on it. So you have to buy the opposite side at +122, youre going to lose 88 bux. That is a nightmare scenario. But it still ends up being a 127 profit day.
You'll have days you win a lot more than 100 bux, you'll have some day where you might lose money overall. it isnt fool proof, but it is set up to minimize your risk while guaranteeing you dont lose your bankroll. You have plays everyday and that is the name of the game, stay in the game day after day. Slow and steady grind. Once you build your bankroll up you'll be abe to expand a little bit. 10K is a small bankroll to start out with, thats why the profits are limited.
There isnt a lot of guesswork or worrying about what percentage your going to need to hit to make money. You can sit and bet 200 a game and hope, but streaks are a killer. Free money is safe money, and despite having to eat a few bad moves here and there I dont consider 100-200 dollar losses as a huge risk versus games where you see those 30 cent moves and a 6000 lead can end up being a 500-600 dollar profits.Comment -
"There isnt a lot of guesswork or worrying about what percentage your going to need to hit to make money."
Really. You just have to have clairvoyance regarding future line moves, apparently. Your examples show what happens when you successfully predict a line move. The only way to do that is to have handicapping skill. So you could have shortened all your posts down to: "Yes, you can make money if you have handicapping skill. If you have enough outs, you may even be able to sell out of your positions without paying too much in vig, thereby reducing your profit volatility." Instead, you make it sound like the process of selling out of your bet is how you make money.Comment -
evo, is Gonzaga under tomorrow a winner?Comment -
A stream of income? Sure.
Steady? **** no.Comment -
Most people will lose in the long run. The lines made are tough to beat on a consistant basis, and all the psychological advantages are with the house. There are the select few that can win long term.Comment -
More semantics. You dont need handicapping ability to guess line moves, you just have to understand public sentiment and what people who bet will do.
As for the number of outs, I said it before if you have Pinnacle you can probably do enough to make a decent profit as theyre going to offer the best odds both way more than half the time. Also a few Asian books with reduced vig and high volume but those never get mentioned here. Basically you use other books besides pinnacle to eject out of a bad play as theyre (Pinnacle)the ones that will move a little sooner thus tipping you off that you made a bad lead.
But you dont also eject off 100% either, you can take a partial and hope your original position wins. Or you could over bet the other side and hope it wins. That is obviously more like 'traditional' gambling where youre taking a stance on one side or the other winning the game. But if there are valid reasons why the line moved it might have its merits.
The most 'correct' statement that could be made to the original question in terms of brevity is. Yes you an make steady income betting sports, but it isnt by betting games with spreads, and especially not spreads with -110 vig attached to them.Comment -
So is there no one on this entire forum who can say that they have successfully "made" money online sports betting? Lets not require it to be a consisten trend, but at least a supplemental income sort of investment, where over the course of a year your net profits outway your net losses?
There has to be some people at least, not everyone is a loser.Comment -
I made money every year from 1997 to 2008. Quite a lot of it actually. More than you can hjope to make now thats for sure. But tht was the golden age of profiteering to be sure. Still possible to make a 'normal' living, you just need the capital to invest on a daily basis.Comment -
so the posters who say they make 15k to 20k a month doing this, are they lying or telling the truth?Comment -
The keys are to have a sizable bankroll, several good outs and the ability to keep them funded quickly and cost efficiently. I was able to make 4-5k a month 5 years ago, but lucky to average 1-2k monthly now. The loss of key books (Pinny, MB, Greek etc...) and the difficulty plus cost to move money today (loss of Neteller hurt the most) has squeezed profit potential tremendously for Americans. Still doable though, just on a smaller scale.Comment -
A lot of great insight here..Comment -
And I agree with the notion that ones gotta have some money to really make any decent amount..Comment -
I think most who've made it started with a small bank and have grown it over the years to where it is now capable of delivering a worthwhile income.
All part of the long learning experience. Start small. Lose a few banks, reload and try again while you continue to gain the experience required.Comment -
Yes, take the gambler mentality out of gambling. Think of your bank roll as your savings or investment account. Too many people, especially gamblers want to make that quick buck. Slow and steady wins the race.
Look at what your bank is offering for interest on your savings. What .5%? That's 1/2 a penny for every dollar in there, for a month.
What if you picked one game a day at 1.10 decimal odds. It has a 99.9% chance of winning. That's 10 cents per dollar bet. Add that up for the week and it's almost 10 times as much as what your money sitting in the bank will earn in a month.
Think like an investor instead of a gambler and you will make money. A stock investor would kill for a 10% return. A friend of mine, BC says, be glad for what you get.Comment
