SBR World Poker Cup 2012: 50,000 Pts + iPad 2, Represent your country!!

[Roadtrip635]

You are a bit off. The number of points 10th place increases by each week will fall for a while before leveling off. This is because someone had to perform well above expectation early on, but as the total number of tournaments is played outliners will decrease. Or to put it another way, for the weekly pace to stay the same, those who did the best site wide would have to do equally well the next week or a group of players would have to do even better than the previous weeks' best did.

I predict the week 3 10th place will be between 1500 & 1600 and by the end of the contest <300/wk average will be needed to place.

Thaddeus

Looks like you were right about 1500-1600 to stay in top 10 this week, but still had the top 7 with 1800+.

At <300/wk average that would mean 3300 points to make the team. Considering there are still 8 weeks left, that looks a little light, but wouldn't be upset if that prediction holds true. BOL Thad!

[Optional]

Looks like you were right about 1500-1600 to stay in top 10 this week, but still had the top 7 with 1800+. At <300/wk average that would mean 3300 points to make the team. Considering there are still 8 weeks left, that looks a little light, but wouldn't be upset if that prediction holds true. BOL Thad!

Love those calcs!

I've got 300 points on Under 3300 for 10th place US qualifier.

[beerman2619]

Just got my second first place of tourney yesssssss

[ttwarrior1]

want to see some dumping, watch final table now, unreal

[ballahollic2]

+150 can not be proper odds for someone to make the US team IMO. There are a lot of horses in the race that have a chance.

[playersonly69]

Well it wasnt proper odds at the beginning of the contest. But I already had 1570 points when I made the bet with aceking. I had those points in teh first 3 days.


I probably still got bad odds, but it will be a fun bet either way. I only risked 500 points, not going to kill me either way. But winning 750 would be nice

[ballahollic2]

That isn't quite as bad then. I still think it will take about 4500-5000 points to make the team though.

[yisman]

That isn't quite as bad then. I still think it will take about 4500-5000 points to make the team though.

No way. 10th place will have under 4200.

[ballahollic2]

Love those calcs!

I've got 300 points on Under 3300 for 10th place US qualifier.

I will bet with u on that number all day long lol anyone who wants under 3500 points I will take the over

[ballahollic2]

or better yet I am willing to bet myself over 3300 points for even odds. Everyone is getting +150 to make the top 10 so if thats where u think the number should be for top 10 I am willing to take myself at over that for even odds.

[Optional]

I've got enough on u3300 for me already. But am pretty confident that will be the number.

[no1here]

will not be under 3300, my guess 3750, I'll be 4500 and could hit 5K

[playersonly69]

I will bet with u on that number all day long lol anyone who wants under 3500 points I will take the over

Had you said 4000 points, then I would have been game. But you have a real good start going for 3500

[yisman]

no1here I don't think you'll get 5k. Harder than you think.

[Optional]

will not be under 3300, my guess 3750, I'll be 4500 and could hit 5K

Probably, but it's more about how many people who are good enough to average 300/wk for 11 straight weeks.

My bet says that less than 10 US players will be able to play 50+ times over the period, and if there are 10-15 that do manage it, less than 10 will be able to cash 30-40% of the time. Which is how often I think will be needed to break 3300.

Do you want 100 on U/O 3700 no1?

[ballahollic2]

I will take over 3700 for myself for 100? I may not get there but i do think the top 10 will require 4500 points about

[ballahollic2]

But I do kinda agree with ur thought process Optional. I have already missed 3 days as it is and who knows how many more I may miss, I guess it will be more difficult to reach that number then I think but i just feel like it only takes a nice little run to accumulate a lot of points. You can get 1200-1500 points in a week probably. and that should help for your bad weeks where u either don't cash or only get like 100. Rudy and Players69 have already had weeks like that and we were only 3 weeks in. Those 2 were probably on the better side of variance but in order to have a week like that u still need to be a good player and I assume both will continue to plug along points and end up with over 5k,

[no1here]

4 week total is 1885 or 471 weekly
I can only go by my average which is nearly 500 weekly after a very slow start. 500 per week equals 5500 total. No way I don't hit 4500 and fully expect 5000 which might not be good enough for top five.

[beerman2619]

[ThaddeusB]

Week 4 10th place for team USA will likely be under 1850. Once its out, I should be able to make a better estimate as to the final # needed, but at this point I still believe it will be under 3300.

[Optional]

I like it when Thad is with me.

[tatddy]

Is there a standings update?

Edit by SBR Lou: Yup certainly is, right here bud. SBR World Poker Cup 2012 standings

[beerman2619]

Where the buck is the standings

Edit by SBR Lou: Right here bud. SBR World Poker Cup 2012 standings

[yisman]

Week 4, and 10th place is 1990. Another 5 over 1850!

Feeling a little more confident in my bets.

[ThaddeusB]

Week 4 10th place for team USA will likely be under 1850. Once its out, I should be able to make a better estimate as to the final # needed, but at this point I still believe it will be under 3300.

Already posted in the weekly standings thread, but adding it here as well for completeness:

Looks like this was the best week to date for Team USA players. I'm think I need tor revise my 10th place estimate up from <3300 to ~3500 now.

[tatddy]

No updates?

Edit by SBR Lou: Yup, here ya go: SBR World Poker Cup 2012 standings

[ballahollic2]

Already posted in the weekly standings thread, but adding it here as well for completeness:

Looks like this was the best week to date for Team USA players. I'm think I need tor revise my 10th place estimate up from <3300 to ~3500 now.

I def think it will be much more then 3500...I think 4500-5k is more proper

[yisman]

I don't really think that's a possibility. You're not getting 10 people at 4500+.

[playersonly69]

4500 is too high.

But you will get 10 people to have at least 3800. And I may not be one of them and I have 2400 now!! I have been killing on the bad beats over the past 2 weeks!

[ballahollic2]

So at like 3100 points I am almost essentially a lock to make it with one more win? I just don't see that holding true

[yisman]

Get another win and I'd say you're in, yeah.

[SBR Lou]

SBR World Poker Cup 2012 standings

[wikkidinsane]

Lou what is the blind structure are we looking at in this 4 handed tourney. Have you considered 8 players tourneyo

[no1here]

low average for top ten in USA is 500 points weekly with six weeks to go, therefore adding 3K to 2500 currently at equals 5500
you need at least one cash to stay within top five this week, good luck

So at like 3100 points I am almost essentially a lock to make it with one more win? I just don't see that holding true

[SBR Lou]

Lou what is the blind structure are we looking at in this 4 handed tourney. Have you considered 8 players tourneyo

The blind structure will be made available prior to the championship.

Four man is so that one from each region can square off. Eight man would not work with this format.