On Fire In NFL Betting. Start Tailing Gentlemen.

[PAULYPOKER]

Give em Hell Kid, I'm rootin for ya...............

[JMobile]

Are you done? Because as much as you THINK you are important because you can go some forum and call someone and noob and namedrop some other loser on this site, you're still and will always be, a loser.

You're the embodiment of the zilches on this website I mentioned that I despise. One bad game and it's off to the bashing. This is the shit that helps you not think of ending your pathetic life so I guess I can't blame you.

Are you for reals, brah? I had no idea that a tiny word such as, "noob", could cause you to rage and pitch out a stream of words to resurrect your self esteem. I wasn't calling you a noob because you lost one bet and your kingdom thread here has collapse, nah brah. Nobody really knows who you are. You sign up in Sept of this year and NOW you're campaigning to a cohort of men to start tailing you because you had a good week. You're still considered "new" here. Posters here still coming in to your thread and see HOW you came up with your picks. Without much write up, posters who were never heard of and begin sculpting a thread with key words, "On Fire", "Start Tailing" can really get you buried here if all of a sudden you hit rock bottom with your picks. Those kind of posters come and go. Now I'm not telling you this to send strong amounts of smoke up your arse, I'm telling you this to be aware of how you want your reputation here build up as because you sound like serious business. You're in your prime in the degenerated world of gambling and out here most of these posters have seen it all. SBR is the best forum, IMO, to consider as home and so I, at least, actually want to see you succeed around here, brah. Everybody wants to be the Son of God Capper in this joint, but even the ones that claim the fame come tumbling down to the point that is time to build a new user name and start "fresh". I'm still rooting for you to kill them books, brah. Best of luck!

[Serbone]

I plan on providing a reasoning behing behind all my picks. I did explain why I picked the Giants, and I will explain my picks in the future. I was just mentioning some of my leans for next sunday without any write-up for now. Further write up and explanation for my Sunday picks will be posted soon.

You did not provide very much reasoning AT ALL for picking the Giants. Just a tad after I egged you on.
Not enough to bet on them.
You even wrote that they were "unpredictable", so, why would you "predict" they would cover?
Hell, Saints lost to St. Louis. Got pounded! HUGE letdown game, they know they are playoff bound, they are the # 2 team in the NFL imo, they are mature and, like Balt, sometimes just go thru the motions on the road against easy foes.

Matchups, "O", "D", QB, strength of schedule, home, away, AT-NT some teams play good on AT and bad on NT (Dallas), injuries, weather, letdowns, "must win" games, sandwich games, bet a playoff caliber team after a loss, team on spread slide, team on spread run, overvalued teams - media hype, conference vs conference , physical mismatches, revenge, look ahead situation, teams with big lead in the standings finally letting their foot off the gas pedal, lame duck coaches, teams with dissention, etc, etc... not just one or two things!

[Vitooch]

Are you for reals, brah? I had no idea that a tiny word such as, "noob", could cause you to rage and pitch out a stream of words to resurrect your self esteem. I wasn't calling you a noob because you lost one bet and your kingdom thread here has collapse, nah brah. Nobody really knows who you are. You sign up in Sept of this year and NOW you're campaigning to a cohort of men to start tailing you because you had a good week. You're still considered "new" here. Posters here still coming in to your thread and see HOW you came up with your picks. Without much write up, posters who were never heard of and begin sculpting a thread with key words, "On Fire", "Start Tailing" can really get you buried here if all of a sudden you hit rock bottom with your picks. Those kind of posters come and go. Now I'm not telling you this to send strong amounts of smoke up your arse, I'm telling you this to be aware of how you want your reputation here build up as because you sound like serious business. You're in your prime in the degenerated world of gambling and out here most of these posters have seen it all. SBR is the best forum, IMO, to consider as home and so I, at least, actually want to see you succeed around here, brah. Everybody wants to be the Son of God Capper in this joint, but even the ones that claim the fame come tumbling down to the point that is time to build a new user name and start "fresh". I'm still rooting for you to kill them books, brah. Best of luck!

Sorry if I came across as too defensive there. I mistook your words as harsher and more offensive when then they really were generous words of advice. My apologies.

I use the "tail me gentlemen" portion of this thread very lightly. Yes, I have been on a hot streak, but I don't want, nor do I see that many people mindlessly tailing my picks, when I am a beginner in this forum. I just wanted to show off the little streak, I've been on, and hopefully make a solid thread out of it. I feel as though I have been pretty consistent with my picks, especially in a tough sport to cap like the NFL this whole season, But the truth is I'm still learning and getting better.I do feel as though I can have some success in my future, though.

Your above post is very insightful. Thanks for taking the time to help me out. Cheers

[Vitooch]

You did not provide very much reasoning AT ALL for picking the Giants. Just a tad after I egged you on.
Not enough to bet on them.
You even wrote that they were "unpredictable", so, why would you "predict" they would cover?
Hell, Saints lost to St. Louis. Got pounded! HUGE letdown game, they know they are playoff bound, they are the # 2 team in the NFL imo, they are mature and, like Balt, sometimes just go thru the motions on the road against easy foes.

Matchups, "O", "D", QB, strength of schedule, home, away, AT-NT some teams play good on AT and bad on NT (Dallas), injuries, weather, letdowns, "must win" games, sandwich games, bet a playoff caliber team after a loss, team on spread slide, team on spread run, overvalued teams - media hype, conference vs conference , physical mismatches, revenge, look ahead situation, teams with big lead in the standings finally letting their foot off the gas pedal, lame duck coaches, teams with dissention, etc, etc... not just one or two things!

Fair enough I wrote a little on the Falcons/Texans game. Hopefully it is enough and to your liking. !

[EaglesPhan36]

Wow you sound quite intimidating man. You're really putting the heat on me. There's still Sunday, Phan. If I bomb come Sunday, then perhaps your foreshadowing is accurate. But to be so final and blunt regarding my future on this forum is a little bit unfair. I haven't NEARLY hit bottom yet, so let the picks flop and let me lose some significant money before you give me such a warning.

Just being truthful. Maybe you're the 1% who doesn't falter at this method of attention, we'll see. But the spotlight is what you wanted with this thread pal. Otherwise, you'd have been happy to just keep picking and going about your business without drawing attention to yourself ... and telling people to follow you. It's just SBR 101 towards building a losing streak to do it this way for the most part. At least you give some reasons for your picks, that I can respect. You've got 90% of these guys who just post picks with no input whatsoever. By doing this of course, you have to take whatever onslaught of good or bad you get because after all, you did ask for it.

[Vitooch]

Just being truthful. Maybe you're the 1% who doesn't falter at this method of attention, we'll see. But the spotlight is what you wanted with this thread pal. Otherwise, you'd have been happy to just keep picking and going about your business without drawing attention to yourself ... and telling people to follow you. It's just SBR 101 towards building a losing streak to do it this way for the most part. At least you give some reasons for your picks, that I can respect. You've got 90% of these guys who just post picks with no input whatsoever. By doing this of course, you have to take whatever onslaught of good or bad you get because after all, you did ask for it.

Absolutely, but as I explained, do take my calls to tail me lightly. It was just me being excited, and yes, calling some attention to myself.

I don't claim to get every pick right, either, unlike many people on this site who will make countless lock threads. I consider myself a pretty good NFL capper who gets some wrong, but has been getting alot right also recently. This sets me up less for failure wehn I admit I am not at all perfect I just can't see myself consistently bombing every week on picks I am very confident. It is very rare when I will get most of my picks wrong two or more weeks in a row. I'll have my select weeks where I will get backdoor covered and get unlucky breaks and lose some cash, but I do feel as though if I don't get too unlucky, I can put together a very nice record on this thread.

Thanks for your input

[Vitooch]

Along with Falcons -3 I also like

Bucs -3 at home against the Panthers.

Bucs have been a very tough team at home this season, with wins including Falcons and the Saints at Raymond James Stadium, while the Panthers have struggled greatly on the road this season, with only one win against the winless Colts last week.
This home crowd advantage will provide much needed support for a Bucs defense that will needing it against a very capable Panthers offense. As good as the Panthers have looked statistically on offense this season, turnovers have shot this team in the foot tremendously. Cam Newton's ROTY chances may be tarnished by one statistic, his interception totals (14 this season), WITH 9 OF THOSE ON THE ROAD .

The Panthers have also struggled defensively this season, specifically against the rush. This will give the Bucs opportunity to run the ball with a very capable Lagarrette Blount and control the clock, keeping that explosive Panthers offense off the field, and putting pressure off Josh Freeman who has also struggled this season with turnovers.

I predict that the Bucs home field advantage and Newton's road struggles this season is a perfect recipe for a Bucs win.

[Vitooch]

One more pick/write-up for today...

Cardinals +7

The dramatic shift in this line since Monday speaks for itself. With Kevin Kolb returning from injury, and with the Cardinals returning to Arizona coming off a tough 3 game road trip, Arizona should put on a good showing this week at home. Whenever I see the Cowboys as a touchdown favorite against a solid team like the Cards, I love to fade Dallas. I faded them last week against a surging Dolphins team and I will do the same this week. Cowboys are just not nearly a consistent enough team against the spread to take them at anything higher than -4 1/2, especially in this spot. Cowboys certainly have a chance to win this game SU, but by no more than 2 field goals.

[Vitooch]

Raiders +3 at Miami Dolphins:

Guess I'm going with the public here, but I see the Raiders covering here. As much as the Dolphins have improved significantly of late, their recent wins have been of pretty low quality (Washington, KC, Buffalo). Their 1 point loss to the Cowboys could have been their most impressive performance so far, but Dolphins will be facing an equally tough opponent in Oakland this season. Speaking of teams that are hot, the Raiders seem to have hit their stride perhaps more so than the Dolphins with recent wins over the Chargers, Vikings and the Bears.

It is the Oakland running game vs. the Dolphins run D that may be the most important matchup of the game. Dolphins tout a very underrated run defense, but the Raiders tout an equally tough running game, even with the absence of Mcfadden. Michael Bush has filled into the starting running back role quite nicely, and if the Raiders can establish a running game with him early, this will open up the floodgates for Palmer to make big play-action throws down the field to their dynamic WR core in Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey.

With that being said, if the Raiders can make those big plays down the field, (see Thursday night game vs. Chargers), this will give the Raiders opportunity to put much needed pressure on Moore and this mediocre Dolphins offense which will lead to turnovers.

As much as I am confident in the Raiders ability to win this game SU, getting an extra field goal is just added insurance.

May I also add that the Raiders are 5-0 against the spread on the road this season.

[Vitooch]

I ****** up. Took the Bucs -3 when now the line is down to -1 now. O well...

I will be adding on my picks on a spreadsheet. Does anyone know if you can link the spreadsheet to my 5Dimes or do I have to put in the picks manually?

[balls2wall]

I haven't used the spreadsheet in a while, but I am pretty sure you still have to enter it manually


could be wrong

[SteveRyan]

..............their dynamic WR core in Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey.

With that being said, if the Raiders can make those big plays down the field, (see Thursday night game vs. Chargers), this will give the Raiders opportunity to put much needed pressure on Moore and this mediocre Dolphins offense which will lead to turnovers.

I'm leaning on Oakland also, but a little worried because Moore is out. Without Ford and Moore, they have DHB and 3rd string WR's. I dont know anything about Louis Murphy.

[Vitooch]

Yes, very unfortunate to hear earlier today that both guys are out...Takes the explosiveness and big play offensive weapons away that could have helped them cover.

I think Raiders pass defense is still good enough to force Miami turnovers and give Palmer and Bush better opportunities to score. Miami's rush defense is very good but Bush is very capable and Palmer seems to have settled nicely at QB.

[Vitooch]

2 more plays for tomorrow! Don't normally makes these many plays but I see value in alot of these games..I have leans on a few other plays but for now...

Titans pk +110

I'm pretty surprised to see the line has stayed around pk since its release. Titans will travel to Buffalo coming off a big win at home against the Bucs last week. They are two games behind an injury-riddled Texans and one game behind in the wildcard. The Bills on the other hand, are coming off an admirable, but still losing effort against the Jets and two previous lopsided losses to the Dolphins and Cowboys. After a tough loss last Sunday, it seems as though the Bills are on the decline with almost no hopes of making the playoffs after a 5-2 start. The Titans on the other hand seem much more revitalized and, with the much needed success of Chris Johnson last week, a much more confident team.

Some matchups stand out to me in this game. First, a hot Chris Johnson (that sounds gay) will be facing the 21st ranked Bills rush defense. If the inconsistent, yet surging Chris Johnson can pull together a strong performance against a mediocre Bills rush defense, he may be the single deciding factor in this game.

Let me also add that the Titans leads the NFL in red zone touchdown efficiency, and the Bill's defense are ranked second to last in defensive red zone touchdown efficiency. (Source: CBS Sports)

The main worry I have regarding the Bills is that they rank second in the NFL in interceptions. However, Hassleback is an experienced veteran with good decision making and, if Titans's running game does find success, will avoid risky throws down the field. May I add that Matt Hassleback has the best qb passer rating in the red zone in the league (at 118).

Also, the 13th ranked pass defense of the Titans should find success against the Bills inconsistent passing offense, which is ranked 6th in the league in interceptions.

With that being said, I will take the more consistent, steady, and hotter Titans team with playoff hopes over an inconsistent, Bills team whose season is all but over. The Titans also clearly possesses the most talented skills player in this game.

[onacloud]

I ****** up. Took the Bucs -3 when now the line is down to -1 now. O well...

I will be adding on my picks on a spreadsheet. Does anyone know if you can link the spreadsheet to my 5Dimes or do I have to put in the picks manually?

Freeman is questionable and is still a a game-time decision I believe that is why the line dropped, so good luck with Josh Johnson if Freeman can't go.

[Vitooch]

Freeman is questionable and is still a a game-time decision I believe that is why the line dropped, so good luck with Josh Johnson if Freeman can't go.

Uh oh.

[manicart]

um yea if Freeman doesnt go... they'll have to put the game on Blount question is.. how good is Carolina vs the run

[manicart]

Coach Raheem Morris says that the decision on Freeman's (right shoulder) availability for Week 13's game against the Panthers will definitely go all the way to Sunday, the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Spin:
With Freeman a game-time decision, Josh Johnson waits in the wings if he unable to go Sunday. For what it's worth, Morris noted that Johnson had a "spectacular" week of practice.

[Vitooch]

Panthers rank 28th in the league in rush defense

[manicart]

yea i dunno this TB game could be a tease play for me if Freeman sits

[Vitooch]

The possibility of Freeman not playing is not very reassuring. I still have plays I'm very happy with, so all is well.

[manicart]

ATL/HOU down to PK currently
CAR/TB 1 pt
...and pats line keeps moving up.. lol -22

[Vitooch]

Staying away from Pats...that line is too steep for me to chase...

Also added Redskins +3 1/2

Boy do I love fading the Jets, and regret whenever I make a play on them. Took the Bronocs in the Thursday game, and was on the wrong side of the 9 1/2 spread last Sunday when the Jets hosted Bills. The fact of the matter is the Jets are just not built offensively to blow teams out of the water, especially in tough road games like these.

Rex and the Skins D played very well in the second half last week on the road against a Seahwaks team that plays very tough at home. Look for the Jets to get off to their typical slow start and for the Skins to cover the very generous field goal and 1/2 point spread.

[Vitooch]

All picks placed already are included in spreadsheet...

Leans are Packers -6, NO -8 1/2 and Rams +15 1/2

[Serbone]

Hey, I see you are providing write ups, data, rationale.
Thanks!
Win or lose, that helps everybody think things though, gets a different perspective or you reinforce some of their ideas.
Again, just posting a pick is not much help.
Appreciate it!
GOOD LUCK!

[ttrace35]

Staying away from Pats...that line is too steep for me to chase...

Also added Redskins +3 1/2

Boy do I love fading the Jets, and regret whenever I make a play on them. Took the Bronocs in the Thursday game, and was on the wrong side of the 9 1/2 spread last Sunday when the Jets hosted Bills. The fact of the matter is the Jets are just not built offensively to blow teams out of the water, especially in tough road games like these.

Rex and the Skins D played very well in the second half last week on the road against a Seahwaks team that plays very tough at home. Look for the Jets to get off to their typical slow start and for the Skins to cover the very generous field goal and 1/2 point spread.

I thought spread was down to 1 1/2

[onacloud]

um yea if Freeman doesnt go... they'll have to put the game on Blount question is.. how good is Carolina vs the run

I think Blount will still have a big day and I'm actually looking forward to watching this game to see how he plays if the team is on his shoulders I don't think the Panthers D can slow him down so it's going to come down to how Newton manages the game he can't afford turnovers that will be the bottom-line.

[Vitooch]

I thought spread was down to 1 1/2

Opening line +3 1/2 on 5Dimes

[ttrace35]

Opening line +3 1/2 on 5Dimes

My bad. I thought you said you JUST added it.

[Scully]

Along with Falcons -3 I also like

Bucs -3 at home against the Panthers.

Bucs have been a very tough team at home this season, with wins including Falcons and the Saints at Raymond James Stadium, while the Panthers have struggled greatly on the road this season, with only one win against the winless Colts last week.


I predict that the Bucs home field advantage and Newton's road struggles this season is a perfect recipe for a Bucs win.

Well if they're (TB) gonna get the win as you predicted at home in this one today, they had better change recipes in a hell of a hurry at halftime.

[Vitooch]

Well if they're (TB) gonna get the win as you predicted at home in this one today, they had better change recipes in a hell of a hurry at halftime.

Yes, TB is not looking good right now. I was expecting a better effort from TB's defense. I don't get every pick often. I suppose you do idk.

[ttrace35]

Don't pay attention to the haters. Nobody hits 100%.

[Vitooch]

Don't pay attention to the haters. Nobody hits 100%.

Even you don't hit 100% trace

Bucs and Raidaaasss are toast.

Skins, Titans looking pretty good

Idk about Falcons

[ttrace35]

Even you don't hit 100% trace

Bucs and Raidaaasss are toast.

Skins, Titans looking pretty good

Idk about Falcons

Yea. Tracer had a rough couple of weeks. I'm going 3-0 today.