I am very selective, only have 16 plays this year in 7 weeks now and am 8-8 for +4.8 units, my 3 unit plays are 5-2 for +8.4 units so thats the reason im up at a .500 clip. My picks are recorded in the football section of this site. Ironically i may pass altogether next weekend since none of the opening lines jump at me. Still waiting on the saints/rams and lion/broncos to come out but most likely saints will be too chalky and the other one will depend on staffords status.
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Great Friday great Saturday got hammered Sunday Sundays kill meComment -
Yesterday was my worse day. But recovered 90% of it today. It's beatable. Shotgun and chasing will do you in if you're not careful. If you can cap...you can spot/find one or two games.Comment -
nfl easier than college for me. i always go down in flames on saturday.Comment -
I have trouble with the points. NFL spreads are too sharp, imo. But I'm killing it this year with ML parlays.
Yep, throw out what every wannabe tout has told you, and go BIG with ML parlays. It's the only way to win.Comment -
come on guy you will never beat any sport if you go in with that mind setComment -
Just my opinion, but if you have money management and spot play with discipline it can be done.I feel there are more tasty morsels like betting CFB that can be hit at a much higher %. Discipline is the key. Never get to high on a play and bet in excess of 15% of your bankroll on the game. If you have enough of a bankroll to start with and be real strict with your money management it can be done. Due to some unfortunate events I was not able to work a job for the last 3 years and have been making a living betting sports.Comment -
People with sample size of like 15 games.
Try 500....
It's like the SBR Poker players who think they are good after such limited number of hands.Comment -
I don't think much of sports betting is beatable, really. College football is "more beatable" than the NFL, but the Average Joe can't beat it without figuring out and exploiting something, usually in a small conference like the Sun Belt or FCS.Comment -
I'm 21-6 this season betting NFL games.
Yesterday I had Atlanta +5, K.C. +4.5, Tampa/Chicago Under 44, New Orleans -14.
Money in tha bank!Comment -
14 pt teasers and heavy ML parlays can beat the NFL... you just have to pick the right spotsComment -
Classic!
I can't do it, therefor no one can......I tried and failed, therefore you shouldn't even try.
Trust me, I am smarter than you and I couldn't do it, so don't waste your time trying.
I scim the lines every Sunday morning and bet a few games based on gut feeling every Sunday for a few years and came out at a loss. If that doesn't tell you it's impossible I don't know what will. Plus I lost a lot last sunday so.....yeah, it's impossible.
*sarcasm [on] off*Comment -
The problem isn't that it's the NFL. The problem is that most people have no control. They see 15 games on the schedule and think they have to get involved in 12 of them. That's lunacy. It's no wonder the sports books make a killing; people line up to throw money at 'em.Comment -
Agreed. It's difficult to consistently win with the NFL. That's why books offer up to $100,000 limits per game. Think about it, the books know that long term they'll be up.Comment -
NFL=
For entertainment purposes only. Not to be taken seriously.
The sooner you figure it out the better off you will be.Comment -
The books got croaked yesterday.
Big time.
If GB covered the ten, they would have been hemorrhaging blood.
Squares cashed in on Jets at home, Steelers, Cowboys, I do not know of anybody who bet the Colts last night.
It was Christmas in October in Squaresville SundayComment -
Well said.It was Christmas in October in Squaresville Sunday
BTW - 461-298 ATS NFL. Bridgejumper system. 20 years so only about 30 plays a year but . . . . . HOWEVER - it does not handicap the games - it handicaps the LINES. big difference.Comment -
NFL is easy...just flip coins like I do
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Trigger we have no past data on you
All we know is you did hard time and have won this year in the nflComment -
by far has the least good spots of any sport out there and by far the tightest lines. might be 1 or 2 good plays a week on the board. gota love the guys who think they r accomplishing something by being up over 6 weeks.Comment -
This
You can literally get down as much money as you want on NFL. This is untrue in every other sport. Why do you think the books suddenly let you bet whatever you want? Just bc they're so generous?
Hell 80% of the games average out at 3 point lines, do you really feel you can cap which team is going to cover a 3 point spread enough to overcome twice the juice of MLB and make a profit?Comment -
No shit, guys comin on hear and being like Im 20-10 this year at NFL, I've got it beat
I could take a 30 game sample size and make myself look like the best MLB capper that ever lived but I ******* suck at capping that game
Also the posters that get on here and say **** you'll never beat it with that attitude or you are just trying to bring ppl down I mean wtf?
Im not saying dont bet on it Im just saying the bookie has a significant edge, also when you go to the casino the house has a significant edge, sorry to let you boys in on that but unless you're a card counter the more you bet at the casino the more money the casino makes.
Does this mean you shouldnt bet at all? No, of course not, I enjoy betting on the NFL. Up to a certain point the entertainment is worth something and if you're betting small, lets say 500 bucks in bets a Sunday then the bookie is only takin you for 25 bucks a week so its a small price to pay for the entertainment of betting on games all day long BUT I am saying dont go overboard and start chasing and trying to slam the bookie bc in the long-run for every 1000 you bet you "owe" the bookie 50 bucks
Also bets like quarters that charge an ADDITIONAL 50% juice are just the ultimate sucker bets. Pinny will let you get a 100k down at 8-10 cent lines and these books want to charge 30 cents on quarters, I mean come the **** onComment -
I am 21-6 in NFL this year, but I havent had a positive year since 2007......so take it with a grain of salt.
I like to think I've had good reads, but maybe I'm just a good coin flip caller!Comment -
Forgive me for not believing that the market is 100% efficient
[B][B]They key isn't getting rich quick. The key is getting rich slowly, and enjoying it.
[/B][/B][SIZE=1][URL="http://forum.sbrforum.com/sbr-points/490161-points-available-loan.html#post4633361"][/URL][/SIZE]Comment -
yes. picking spots is the best way to win over time...to win NFL over a long period of time takes patience and knowledge of the right numbers... the games themselves are almost secondary to the betting lines you can get... perfect example was cleve yesterday... typical -3 home line... I got one guy who put it -2... I took it and they won as they should have by 3... over a long period of time you will win more than you lose playing those types of numbers... 7 versus 7.5.. ect... totals 37 versus 38... and heading into this coming weekend and on to playoffs is when you can really exploit the numbers , as the injuries and stats can come into play... assuming you have sources , you should be creating your own lines and comparing them with the open... stats are pretty much pointless for the first couple weeks but come into play towards the middle of the sason..
"If it wasnt for luck, I would win every game."Comment -
some players get to bet $100,000 a game and some do not... the books make that call...Comment -
Just post up at SBR sponsored books and make +EV plays. You'll be a winner in no time.[B][B]They key isn't getting rich quick. The key is getting rich slowly, and enjoying it.
[/B][/B][SIZE=1][URL="http://forum.sbrforum.com/sbr-points/490161-points-available-loan.html#post4633361"][/URL][/SIZE]Comment -
Who gives a shit if they're 100% accurate, when 75% of the lines average out at 3 points. Oh that lines off it should be 2, I just know it after looking at the past games, gimme 5 dimes on the +3, I found the "off" line
Have fun makin a fortune betting NFL
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