Originally posted by mofome
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When I put 200 bucks each game of Iwin's 2-5 run it had an effect on my day (about a -700 effect). I'm just asking the posters to be real with their picks, maybe that's not fair, but I believe that picks that are directly correlated should not count as separate picks for record keeping purposes, if I'm wrong I'm wrong, I just wish books would allow me to parlay Iwin's picks and I would be a millionaire by now.Comment -
I am "being real" with my picks dude. Just because you cant parlay some of them doesnt mean you cant bet them. Im sory you bet on the game of mine that went downhill, truely.
All I want to do here is try and beat the books along with EVERYONE else (except for MJFtheGenius). But its funny all the shit I get for doing so.Comment -
I don't feel you should get any shit for it Iwin, you're not a bad capper by any standard, I just feel 70% avg right now is a lil misleading b/c there would be no way you would have that if you hadn't included directly correlated wagers. You're misrepresenting your skills as a capper, you're avg is mid-50%'s which is perfectly fine, believe me that's much better than most, but far from 70%, either way gl I really don't care if you put up a 100% avg if it makes you feel better or gives ya more confidence (that's what I've done in my signature) b/c clearly no one cares if the records hold any meaning anyway, we are apparently not meant to take any posters picks (as mofo suggested they will have no effect on my day) so I guess I'm the idiot for taking your picks and deserved to lose my money b/c of that. B/c clearly the only way handicapping records are going to have "no effect" that mofo suggests is if you ignore them and ignore the picks, if you take them of course they are going to have an effect, you'll look at your sportsbook balances and be able to see the effect.Originally posted by IwinyourmoneyComment -
Do you feel the same way about 2nd half picks then.Originally posted by bettilimbroke999
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Not sure what you mean? A 2nd half pick is a completely unrelated wager, the only reason why you can't parlay them is b/c they aren't posted at the time you make your 1st half or game bets, I'm not following your question, but yes I am only referring to bets that are directly correlated, which give a very strong relationship such that you will tend to either hit both of them or lose both of them, over 1st half and over game are directly correlated if there is nothing scored in 1st half the game total will very likely go under as well, over 1st half and over 2nd half are unrelated b/c you are receiving no advantage/disadvantage from the wager you made on the 1st half. In fact if you made a 1st half wager and were paid out fast enough you could essentially make a parlay by taking the payout and placing it on the 2nd half.Originally posted by diogeeDo you feel the same way about 2nd half picks then.Comment -
Originally posted by Iwinyourmoney
Why worry about any who disagree with you, or contend your statements?
On this or any other board in the gigantic WWW you are going to get carpers, kibbutzers, ridiculers, doomsayers.
You should know that before you come on the board.
You can mute it somewhat by not boasting so much, breaking into threads that have nought to do with you to self-promote, and the like.
Your username is also very provocative, and will encourage dissidents to take shots at you. Tone it down. Modesty is a virtue with truthful sports pickers.
There will always be an embarrassing losing streaks, no matter how good you are. I ran a small tout service once, pay after winning, (proceeds of a two team parlay) and came out of the college football box hitting ten of these parlays in a row.
I didn't holler and shout. Rather, I told the clients that this was an anomaly, it wouldn't last, don't go overboard.
70%,if accurate, is terrific. But if you are professional at this you know it can't last. If you can go several seasons and hit close to 60% wins you're doing tremendous.
But no one is perfect, don't let your own propaganda go to your head. Those who are really good at handicapping never need to toot their own trumpet, their fans will do it for them.
Sometimes, embarrassingly loud. As was the case a few years ago, when a guy named Ace Ace had thousands of eager members (across the street at another site) waiting breathlessly for his picks, such a great NFL season he had the year before.
And, of course, he went into the dump. And the same fickle fans who thought he could walk on water just one year prior were then gathering the wood and naiils to crucify him.Comment -
What I was basically asking is...say last night I had NO -3 for the game then added NO -3 for the 2nd half. I just don't see why 1H and game can't be counted together...sure they are correlated in a way but many teams win the 1H and lost the 2H/game spread.Originally posted by bettilimbroke999Comment -
He was on a 14-0 run, got a few wrong, big deal. You just lucked out and bet the wrong games. With your reaction to it you deserve getting bombed with losses.Originally posted by bettilimbroke999
Don't gamble if your gonna be a little bitch about it when you lose.
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Great post ritehook, I like Iwin as a person and hope he hits every pick he makes, my criticism was not to "down" him it was only to correct the only thing that makes winning at sports gambling possible and that is making a series of good bets, your record gives a direct indication of the quality of your wagers. If you are a great capper avging 60% is possible and would be a great joy for those who follow you, if you are a good handicapper you can avg. mid 50%'s and do slightly better than breaking even. I will not follow anyone who avgs less than 50% as I could flip a coin or use a dartboard and get those results myself so I don't know how much the lower percentages would lose but needless to say it would be unpleasant. When a poster is (even unintentionally) manipulating his record and touting his picks with highly inaccurate information it will lead to people losing money, PERIOD. If I told you I shot 72 everytime in golf and you found a guy who shoots 76 everytime and backed me in a game for 1000 and I shot 82 it would suck to find out that when I shot 72 it was from the girls tees. Accurate information is our only defense against the bookies and I am confused at the number of posters who think I am insulting Iwin by asking him to not include directly correlated wagers. I don't want ANYONE including directly correlated wagers b/c I tend to follow 55%+ cappers and ignore the sub 50% as I like to follow picks rather than fade them (I prefer to root for my fellow posters to win rather than to lose and depend on intelligence rather than stupidity to win, call me crazy) and thus someone who loses on directly correlated wagers would have a doubly bad record but I wouldn't be paying attention to their picks anyway so it wouldn't help me whether they were 6-8 (the reverse of Iwins real record) or 6-14 (the reverse of Iwin's correlated record).Comment -
I will answer your question with a question, will you book my 2 team parlays 1st half and game? 100 pays 270, if so I will concede to your argument and you can Paypal me the winnings at the end of every week. 2nd Half/game wagers are directly correlated as well, just as 1st Half/game wagers are correlated, thus they should not count. 1st half/2nd half wagers are not correlated thus they should count. The idea being that one wager does not directly affect the result of the other wager thus causing a doubling of the effect on a record. Listen, I don't work for SBR I am just a poster you do whatever you want with your records, maybe I'm nuts to even care if they're accurate or not or to take sports picks from guys I don't know in the first place. I just want to say this though, the more accurate the information sports gamblers have the better they will do in the long-run but either way you do what you want.Originally posted by diogeeComment -
I don't get why you think that 2H/game wagers should not be counted. NO was down by 4 at the half...how in any way is that correlated to them winning the 2nd half by 3 or more? I would say it is not correlated because they lost the 1st half so what makes one think that they win the 2nd half and cover the original -3 for the game?Comment -
You're giving me a headache diogee, but the idea is that the outcome of one bet does not directly affect the outcome of another bet for records purposes. 2nd Half bets are a bit of a gray area and it would depend on the degree of correlation obviously if a team is giving 10 and down 15 at half the correlation on a -6 for the 2nd half would not be as close as it would be if the team was giving 2 for the game and down 3 at half with a 2nd half line of -1 1/2. 2nd Half wagers are indeed a gray area b/c it would depend on the score, you could essentially make the same bet twice if the game and 2nd half numbers fell right (should that count as two separate picks? IMO no). But as I say I am just providing my opinions here, the sole purpose being for us all to have a few extra $$$ in our pockets at the end of the week, that includes myself, you, Iwin and anyone else on this forum crazy enough to try to make money sports gambling. I feel personally that Iwin's record (and anyone basing their record on directly correlated wagers) should be adjusted and it is highly unlikely you'll change my opinion. I actually don't mind indirectly correlated wagers like a dog and the over, that to me is two separate wagers as you can parlay those at most books b/c they are only slightly correlated, I am talking about making half/game wagers on the same side and counting them as separate wagers, they have too high a correlation to consider them separate picks IMO. Once again I ask for posters to let me parlay them at traditional odds of 2.7/1 if you feel there is no correlation and Paypal me the winnings at the end of every week.Originally posted by diogeeComment -
Betlil,
Of course the wagers are correlated, that doesn't mean they do not count for record purposes. You're telling me if someone has a 1H and for game play that only one should be reflected in grading +/-..?
You will either split, win both, or lose both. There is no advantage or edge to the player in including a 1st half wager with his game wager, you can find value in them but NOT all the time..Comment -
Alright I do agree with you that if the numbers match up for 2nd half wagers as you explained then it is indeed basically the same wager as before...I don't make a 2H bet on a team I have a wager on unless the number gives me a decent middle so I can win at least 1 of the bets...IE NO yesterday gave me a 4 pt middle so in that case I don't see any reason why they shouldn't both be counted.Comment -
I am not going to even reply to crazy as the whole point of my posts is that it doubles the effect on your record thus affecting the accuracy but if crazy is just not getting that through his thick creditwagering skull then so be it, nothing I can do. Diogee you seem to be intelligent enough to follow what I'm saying so let me just say this, there is no definitive answer on 2nd Half picks, it is a complicated gray area b/c I, like yourself and many others scalp and hedge game bets with 2nd half wagers occasionally and the effect is wagering as a result of other wagers you have in play thus I have a hard time believing ppl would post these picks in the forum as this is more situational betting rather than a pick I would post for others.Originally posted by diogeeComment -
Yeah I would agree that 2H wagers can be a situational bet but the better majority of the time I try not to let my original wager effect my 2nd half wager. I look over the game completely...shooting, turnovers, fouls (which players are in foul trouble), combined FT's attempted, pace, etc so I usually base my decision on a combination of all the stats from the first half. Like last night my 2H wager on the Hornets had nothing to do with my original wager...I picked the Hornets strictly because the Spurs were lights out and 9-17 from the 3 pt land...no way they could duplicate it. I also know that the Hornets usually bring their A game in the 2nd half.Comment -
It is like if someone posted today I have the following
Boston 1h -8.5 and game -14.5
Lakers 1h -4.5 and game -9
Yes they went 4-0 but in reality you picked 2 games correctly.
In the case of the Boston/Atlanta series the team that won SU covered every game and each 1st half.Comment -
I am not following, you had NO -3 for the Game, they were down 4 at half and you took NO -3 for 2nd Half and posted both these picks in the forum, is this correct, yes or no?Originally posted by diogeeComment -
Bet lil,
you're an idiot. you think a player has an edge by taking 1st half wagers @-110 and for game wagers..? WHY should both these plays not be counted for record keeping..?
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Correct, the results were correlated enough to consider them as one pick for records purposes, if they split however I would consider them as either a 1-1 split or as no effect on the record for record keeping purposes, which ever is a more agreed upon way of recording it. You can tell just how correlated they are by pokernut's example from today's games 2-0 becomes 4-0 and by the 7-0 becomes 14-0 example from Iwin's picks.Originally posted by pokernut9999Comment -
Yes that's true it's 2 games, but still 4-0 in tracked, verifiable wagers.Originally posted by pokernut9999Comment -
Look at it this way.
Player says "two plays.. Boston -8.5 1h, boston -14.5 for game"...
Say they both LOSE, and the player puts 0-1 in his record. He'd get f*cking flamed!Comment -
Mods can you do something other than give me infractions for a change and delete crazy's posts in this thread. They have absolutely no validity and show a complete ignorance of the topic we are discussing. CRAZY WE KNOWWWWWW THEY ARE 4 SEPARATE WAGERS, BUT RECORDS ARE BASED ON PICKS NOT THE NUMBER OF WAGERS, IF YOU PICKED A TEAM TO WIN AND BET 10 DOLLARS 20 TIMES AND IT WON WOULD THAT MEAN YOU WENT 20-0, IN YOUR MIND IT PROLLY WOULD BUT FOR THE REST OF US YOU MADE ONE CORRECT PICK, YOUR RECORD SHOULD BE 1-0 NOT 20-0.Originally posted by crazylComment -
You are wrong on this.Originally posted by bettilimbroke999
If someone posts "1st half wager 2 units.. for game wager 2 units", and both lose, that is marked as 0-2. Conversely, if both win, he is 2-0 on his selections no matter how correlated you feel they are.Comment -
If he records it correctly as 1-0 when they both win, then there is no reason he should be criticized for correctly posting it as 0-1 when he loses, this is what we are discussing crazy and trying to come to a consensus about, if you have intelligence to add feel free, but so far there is almost no defense for the doubling effect on records by highly correlated wagers. If we all agree that it causes inaccuracy for the picks record then there is no reason for it to continue, unless you like to lose money. Iwin has a record for posted picks of 8-6 (which is a good record), he has his record stated as 15-6 (which would be an incredible record) b/c he posted his first 7 picks as double wagers (which he won) and then posted his next 7 picks as singles (which he went 1-6 on), thus his legitimate record of 8-6 (57%, which is still quite good) is being displayed as an incredible 15-6 (72%, which would be incredible), the truth is if he had lost the first 7 doubles his record would be 1-20 (5%) when it should only be 1-13 (7%) (both of which would granted be terrible, but you can see I don't support doubling the negative effect or the positive effect b/c it severely alters the posters actual record)Originally posted by crazylComment -
You're making it sound like this is comparable to betting the ML twice at different prices and recording both as plays. These plays will get blown out of the water just as much as the next -110 wager, they'll split, they'll sweep some nights.Originally posted by bettilimbroke999
The bottom line is if someone says, 2 units 1st half... 2 units for game, they are both valid PICKS and should be correctly counted and tracked as such. We both know if these went 0-2 and Iwin lost all his first half and for game wagers you wouldn't argue for him to deduct losses from his record..!!!!Comment -
Crazy mofo already posted this as if to say I'm jealous of Iwin's record. GET A FUKIN LIFE MAN! I WANT IWIN TO WIN B/C I FOLLOWED HIS PICKS! Do you honestly think I am sitting here hoping Iwin loses, if he can average 70% legitimate picks I'd be the happiest guy in town with pockets full of money but I followed him couple weeks ago for a 2-5 run to dump 700 and then he quit posting, so pretty unlucky if he truly avgs 70%, which he doesn't UNFORTUNATELY (believe me I wish that he did). Now your whole argument rests on the fact (just like mofo stated earlier) that I wouldn't be arguing for him to halve his losses if they lost and you're right I will admit I wouldn't, b/c I wouldn't be following a guy who posted 7 losers in a row or 14 in a row b/c I don't believe in fading posters, b/c I think intelligence is more predictable than lack of intelligence, but here's what I am saying let's say you have posted 4 picks and they sucked cock b/c you're a terrible capper then (having nothing to lose b/c you're 0-4) you pick 3 games that are highly correlated doubles and you win, you're record for picking games is a legitimate 3-4 (43%) BUT you are posting your "skill" as 6-4 or as a 60% capper (which is about as good as it gets unfortunately long-term in sports capping), so people start taking your picks and the reality sets in that you pick like Corky from Life Goes On and we all lose our money. Now we're all on welfare b/c you had no clue how to cap games and meanwhile a legitimate poster with an actual 55+% avg is ignored that we could have followed and MADE MONEY.Originally posted by crazylComment -
AOriginally posted by bettilimbroke999
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Originally posted by bettilimbroke999
so, you're upset that he had a bad run? did you suspect that he would be the first ever 98% handicapper? he will have other 2-5 runs, just like everyone. poor timing on your part, but iwin certainly did nothing worthy of anything but praise. his record is great now and even if he loses his next 10 he still had a hell of a run and is doing the best he can. not much more you can ask of someone.Comment -
Totallyofftopic.com, this thread is discussing accuracy of records, no one is putting Iwin down, not sure where this is coming from. I did dump 700 on his 2-5 run and that sucked for me as you say bad timing, my point was every person, Iwin, myself, Jack the Ripper, whoever who posts picks in the forum should adhere to a standard to keep their records accurate. If I post over 1st half/over game and call it 2 picks, it creates a highly misleading record (either doubly bad or doubly good), but anyway who cares b/c no one here but diogee has any clue what I'm talking about they all think this is some slam on Iwin, I like Iwin, I'm glad he posts he's a good capper, but he's no 70% capper, that's a load of horseshit, but hes a good capper and I will continue to follow his picks as long as he remains over 55% (true 55% that is, he is currently at a true 57% on NBA Playoff picks).Originally posted by mofomeComment -
That is correct bettil....both posted in my NBA thread. The -3 for the 2nd half gave me a middle to break even if the Hornets did not cover the original spread but that was not why I took the Hornets 2H. It was strictly a stat/knowledge play.Originally posted by bettilimbroke999Comment -
I would call this a very strongly correlated wager, being a middle of only 3 pts (due to tie pt) these would not be distanced enough in my opinion to say that the outcome of one doesn't either greatly increase or greatly (in this case absolutely) decrease the likelihood of the other. Listen, I am no authority on gambling records, I just think the one thing ppl should try to avoid is anything that would either falsely raise or falsely lower a record, an example like yours here could have lowered your record more than would be fair or as it turned out raised it more than would be fair do to the closeness of the wagers. Let's say I have over 190 for the game and the first have is 92, 2nd half comes up 94 and I say over 2nd half, well granted there is a 3 pt split middle and I might honestly feel that capping the 2nd half tells me that the over for the 2nd half is the percentage play, but one has to realize that his original capping told him that the over was the correct play, so it is unlikely that the stats have changed significantly by mid game and so analyzing virtually the same information as he did pregame it is highly unlikely that he will come up with an under bet for the 2nd half unless there is a huge lead/clear slowdown of play in the 1st half, thus these wagers are not created as a result of any new information or significant change in opinion from what the capper had pregame thus they should be considered highly correlated. This is my opinion of course and only mine, if the majority feel this is an incorrect way to determine records then fine, but we have to avoid multiple wagers on what amounts to nearly identical picks with virtually no significant change in information that would alter the capper's original pregame mindset counting as two picks IMO. Let's just be honest for a second and say what we are trying to do and that is find capper's that legitimately identify games that are +EV and if that identification is made and the pick successful that is a 1-0 difference on that capper's record, if not then it's 0-1. Doubling up 1st half/game, game/2nd half, ml/spread, or any other way that makes any pick multiple picks is incorrect IMO, I don't care if it's the game of the year, you should only be able to count 1-0 or 0-1 for sides and 1-0 or 0-1 for totals, there are many games daily normally and if you are wagering multiple times per game it is likely that you are not waiting for key opportunities in the first place and instead "putting all your eggs in one basket" and hoping that game goes according to plan, which will clearly cost you in the long run anyway, you see you actually want your money spread out over multiple +EV wagers so that the deviation from the avg of one game (even if it is a good bet) doesn't cremate your bankroll (see chasing), this is why people with NE 1st half, NE Game, NE 2nd Half, NE ML and all this crap got hammerred in Feb., b/c they put every cent they had on one game, any one game can deviate greatly from the avg. ESPECIALLY IN NBA OR MLB where the margin of success or failure is so small.Originally posted by diogeeComment -
Just cause someone has 6 losses, or even 1000000000 losses, does not mean they are not 70%, it depends on the number of wins, and there were a lot so far.
Someone seems a tad jealous maybe?
Grow the **** up.
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This is my last post on the subject bro.
I do think your a good poster, this isnt personal or anything.
It says POSTED PICKS......not POSTED PARLAYS.......not TRY AND PARLAY THIS.
A posted pick is a posted pick. I bet all my posted picks. A win IS a win in the record book. If I post a 1st half, game, then a 2nd half line, and hit all 3.....ITS 3 CORRECT POSTED PICKS. If people take all 3, they win ALL 3 BETS. Simple as that.
If Boston wins the NBA title, will there be something in the record book that says "Boston was forced to game 7 by Atlanta". They won. They won the series. They are in the books as WINNERS.
If I bet EACH Q of the game, and hit all 4, its 4 POSTED PICK WINS.
Thants all I have to say ever on the subject. Lets all win some money!!!Comment -
Bettil, the whole point of 2H wagers is that you have a feel for how the game is going to help your handicapping. Say I would have went Spurs +3...should that not count either? In all honesty though anyone that has viewed my thread knows that I hardly ever go over 1 unit on a play and don't double down unless it is a strong play. I made the % play and this is the Spurs we are talking about...a 1, 2, or 3 point game is always very likely so I could justify the 2H wagers. The win also "boosted" my winning % by .142% which isn't jack Shit.Comment
