Every Thursday during the season, Doug Kezirian (4-3 last week, 19-10 overall), Bill Connelly (2-1, 12-11), Preston Johnson (5-0, 18-10), David M. Hale (0-3, 10-12) and Seth Walder (0-1, 4-4) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.

Here are their best bets for Week 10 of the college football season.

Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Wednesday.

Utah State Aggies at Nevada Wolf Pack (-17.5, 56), 7 p.m. ET Thursday (on FS1)

Kezirian: Nothing will match a six-game slate on the opening night of "MAC-tion," but the Mountain West is offering a nice doubleheader Thursday (Wyoming also visits Colorado State). I have faded Utah State this season, but I am not ready to lay 17.5 points with Nevada, although I would if I had to pick a side. Instead, I am on the over. The Wolfpack defense is not nearly as strong as what Utah State faced the first two weeks (Boise State and San Diego State), so I think Aggies quarterback Jason Shelley (Jordan Love's successor) will find some success. The Wolfpack offense is quite potent, hanging 37 points in consecutive weeks, and should be able to carve up this weak Utah State defense. I am opting for the team total as well, in case this game gets away from the Aggies and Shelley continues his passing issues.

Pick: Over 56, Nevada team total over 36.5 (DraftKings)

No. 23 Michigan Wolverines (-3, 54) at No. 13 Indiana Hoosiers, Noon ET (on FS1)

Kezirian: Am I really willing to lay points on the road with a team that just lost at home as a three-touchdown favorite? Yep. When teams break through and cross a certain threshold of mediocrity, it rarely happens with a stretch of several wins. The Hoosiers picked up a great victory over Penn State, and I like what Tom Allen is doing in Bloomington. He certainly has the program headed in the right direction. However, are the Hoosiers all of a sudden going to win all their games? No. This is where they get a reality check.

Plus, while Michigan State was the better team last Saturday in Ann Arbor, Michigan's defense was unable to play its usual physical coverage. The officials repeatedly called pass interference on the first couple drives to set the tone. Unless that occurs again here, the Wolverines should be able to shut down an Indiana offense that has plenty of limitations. I like QB Michael Penix Jr., and his game-winning play against Penn State was incredible, but he also was only 19-of-36 passing in that game for 170 yards. I think the Wolverines stymie Penix and Michigan QB Joe Milton has a big day.

Pick: Michigan -3

Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 20 USC Trojans (-10.5, 58), Noon ET (on FOX)

Walder: After my colleagues revamped FPI's priors this offseason, the model is performing well. It's beating all of the other prediction models that don't include the betting line in mean absolute error (the difference between the predicted point differential and the actual point differential) on all games this season, among those tracked by thepredictiontracker.com. FPI performed particularly well early in the season, and it is 39-28-1 against the spread in what we call "big diff" games -- five or more points different from the closing line. Put that all together and that says if -- if! -- our new priors really do give us an edge, a "big diff" game between two teams yet to play (and therefore most reliant on the prior) is probably the best spot. This is the lone such Pac-12 game this week, with FPI believing the Trojans ought to be favored by just over 16.

Pick: USC -10.5

West Virginia Mountaineers at No. 22 Texas Longhorns (-6.5, 55.5), Noon ET (on ABC)

Walder: The Football Power Index (FPI) was fairly high on Texas in the preseason -- too high, it turns out. But even if we throw out the prior and look strictly at our opponent-adjusted efficiencies, Texas has been the 23rd-best team this season and West Virginia has been the 43rd-best. Sam Ehlinger hasn't lived up to expectations, but his 76.2 QBR is stronger than Jarret Doege's 62.9. Add in home-field advantage, and 6.5 points doesn't seem like a wholly unreasonable line. But there's a reason we don't throw out the prior -- it holds predictive value, even at the end of the season, and certainly in the middle of the season. So between what we thought we knew about Texas before and what we do know about these two teams now, FPI believes the Longhorns' advantage on offense and special teams outpaces the Mountaineers' slight edge on defense to the tune of 13 points on a home field.

Pick: Texas -6.5

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Northwestern Wildcats (-3.5, 55), Noon ET (on Big Ten Network)

Kezirian: I have backed Northwestern in each of its first two games and will continue to. I obviously hated last week's start. The Wildcats turned the ball over too many times and found themselves trailing 17-0 on the road. But I was certainly encouraged by their ability to fight back, shutting out Iowa in the second half and then ultimately making enough plays to get the win.

Northwestern's new offense has grown on me, and I do not see any reason to stop betting them. Yes, Pat Fitzgerald is much better in the underdog role, but he also has an offense for the first time in a while. I have no issues laying a relatively short number. Nebraska is nothing special and the Northwestern defense will control Adrian Martinez, preventing him from making that many plays with his feet.

Pick:Northwestern -3.5

No. 8 Florida Gators vs. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (-3, 52.5), 3:30 p.m. ET (on CBS)

Hale: With Georgia's defense banged up, Kyle Trask, Kyle Pitts & Co. should be able to move the football. The question is, has the Gators' defense made real strides after a sluggish start? Last week's dominant win over Missouri was encouraging, and Stetson Bennett has looked pedestrian (at best) the past few weeks. We're betting coordinator Todd Grantham will put together a winning formula against his old employer, and the Gators will win this one outright.

Pick: Florida +3

Houston Cougars at No. 6 Cincinnati Bearcats (-13.5, 55), 3:30 p.m. ET (on ABC)

Connelly: This line confuses me. Cincinnati has beaten top-40 SMU and Memphis teams by a combined 91-23 the past two weeks. Meanwhile, Houston has played two teams comparable in quality to Cincinnati -- BYU and UCF -- and lost by a combined 87-47.

Vegas continues to struggle getting a read on Cincinnati; the Bearcats are exceeding the spread by nearly 16 points per game so far. It's certainly hard to get a good read on Houston, too, but the Cougars probably aren't any better than SMU or Memphis. SP+ projects a 36-18 Cincinnati win, and I fully expected this line to be somewhere in the range of 17 to 20.

Pick: Cincinnati -13.5

Kezirian: At some point, the mounting pressure of an undefeated season -- and even CFP chatter -- will lead to a poor game for Cincinnati. I just don't think it happens Saturday. The Bearcats have been smacking inferior opponents, and this is a great opportunity for them to light up the scoreboard. I do have some trepidation. Cincinnati had a wonky game against Army, and Houston's defense played three solid quarters against BYU and star QB Zach Wilson. However, all in all, Houston has a bad defense the Bearcats should exploit.

Pick: Cincinnati -13.5, Cincinnati team total over 34.5 (DK)

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Illinois Fighting Illini (-7, 61.5), 3:30 p.m. ET (on Big Ten Network)

Kezirian: I expect a high-scoring game for a variety of reasons. First of all, Illinois has a horrendous pass defense. In two games, the Illini have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 88% of their passes for 619 yards. Illinois is relegated to a backup quarterback with starter Brandon Peters sidelined with COVID-19. However, I was more than impressed last week with Coran Taylor on the road against a good Purdue squad. Yes, he had four turnovers, but a couple were fluky, and he did show speed and accuracy. I think Illinois will be able to do something on offense utilizing Taylor's arm and legs. The Gophers have a pretty potent offense, led by Mo Ibrahim, who leads FBS in rushing yards per game. Ibrahim will have big runs and the entire offense should find success.

Pick: Over 61.5

Pittsburgh Panthers at Florida State Seminoles (-2, 50.5), 4 p.m. ET (on ACC Network)

Hale: Pitt is in free fall, but the struggles are of its own making. Defensive penalties, drops, brutal run blocking -- oh, and an injured starting quarterback -- have all played a part in the Panthers' precipitous drop. Add in this week's announcement that star safety Paris Ford was opting out, and there's little room for enthusiasm. But here's what the Panthers still have: one of the best defensive fronts in the country, which has demolished opposing run games and pressured QBs early and often. And it just so happens that Florida State's offensive line isn't very good.

Pick: Pittsburgh +2

No. 14 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-12.5, 46) at Kansas State Wildcats, 4 p.m. ET (on FOX)

Connelly: A few different trends converge here. First, SP+ is 12-4 when picking the over on games with a totals line under 47 points. (It's hitting 57% of all of its over picks, for that matter.) Plus, in conference play, OSU games are averaging 53.5 points, KSU games 55.2. This is a surprisingly low line, in other words, especially considering the weather doesn't seem like it'll be much of an issue.

SP+ is projecting 50.9 points (33.5 for OSU, 17.4 for KSU), which honestly feels a bit low given the above averages, and it's still nearly five points higher than the line. Feels like a solid bet to me.

Pick: Over 46

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Florida Atlantic Owls (-7, 39.5), 6 p.m. ET

Johnson: I want to try and illustrate this with a poker analogy surrounding hand ranges. If you're familiar with it, great. If you're not, no sweat. It isn't a perfect analogy anyway, but I've been thinking about sports betting through this lens after playing poker during quarantine for a few months straight.

WKU has been bad. Really, really bad. The Hilltoppers have played about as poorly as anybody could ever expect from this level of a program in 2020. In poker, we try to identify an opponents' hand ranges to the extremes on each end of the spectrum -- the nuts (the best hand they can have) or their bluffs (bad hands). The market sentiment for WKU right now is about as bad as I could ever perceive for this Hilltoppers program. This is the bottom of their range, so to speak. With my priors and game grades for WKU under coach Tyson Helton, this really is as low as it gets. That means more than likely there is only room to go up from here.

With Tyrrell Pigrome making his return under center last week against BYU -- and looking competent -- I'm buying low on the Hilltoppers this week. Getting seven points at FAU in a game with a total lined at just 39.5 is too much to pass up on here. For me, this is like the worst-case scenario. It doesn't mean WKU can't lose this single-game sample by eight or more points, but in a vacuum, it is better than this point spread implies -- even as bad as it has performed to this point.

Pick: WKU +7

No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies (-10, 58.5) at South Carolina Gamecocks, 7 p.m. ET (on ESPN)

Hale: Quarterback Kellen Mond is playing the best football of his career, and the Aggies have shrugged off the early loss to Alabama with three straight impressive wins. The ground game is working, too -- seven rushing touchdowns in the past three games -- which could be a huge problem for a South Carolina team that just gave up 276 yards on the ground to LSU. I expect the Aggies to run away with this one.

Pick: Texas A&M -10

No. 1 Clemson Tigers (-5, 51.5) at No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 7:30 p.m. ET (on NBC)

Kezirian: Unfortunately, Trevor Lawrence will not play in this high-profile game. However, it still offers plenty of intrigue and will give us some data points on both teams. The Tigers were nearly upset last week as 25-point home favorites in their first game without their star, but you cannot pin all of that on freshman quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei. The defense was the real issue against Boston College. As for this showdown in South Bend, now that he has a game under his belt, Uiagalelei should be just fine. I also expect the defense to rise to the occasion. I am siding with the under, and I prefer the first half because I expect both coaches to approach this conservatively but may open it up in the second half if they find themselves trailing by double-digits.

Pick: First half under 25.5

Stanford Cardinal at No. 12 Oregon Ducks (-11, 51), 7:30 p.m. ET (on ABC)

Johnson: I'm generally more bullish than the market on the Cardinal this season. I even took a piece of them at +4000 to win the Pac-12. Quarterback Davis Mills has the ability to elevate the Stanford offense to a level it hasn't seen since Andrew Luck's days. There is so much upside that the market is disregarding, in my opinion, because of one bad season in 2019. That, combined with Oregon not only losing QB Justin Herbert to the NFL but multiple other position players who chose to opt out, gives Stanford a real shot to win this out of the gate. We're getting 11 points.

Tyler Shough will be Herbert's replacement, but the Ducks return zero starters on the offensive line. It might take some time before Oregon is humming to the tune of laying double digits to Stanford again. I took the points.

Pick: Stanford +11

Washington Huskies at California Golden Bears (-1.5, 43), 10:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN)

Connelly: This is a full-on "Fine, SP+, you've got one shot at this" pick. SP+ is both particularly bullish on Washington and particularly Bearish (get it?) on Cal, and while I think part of the latter is because it's underestimating an offense with a healthy Chase Garbers, I'm riding with the Washington thing for now. The Huskies return a healthy amount of proven talent, and they were far better than their record last season. Both Washington and Cal finished 8-5, but Washington was 0-4 in one-score finishes, and Cal was 4-2.

SP+ projects a 33-22 Washington win, and while that seems a little too aggressive, I can certainly see how the Huskies might still be the superior team.

Pick: Washington +1.5