[High3rEl3m3nt]

Not sure how many people here know who Sherwood is, but he seems like a source for good information/sports gambling theory. Realized last night that he has a podcast series, thought a few here might benefit.

a non-gambling related podcast that is really interesting, is Dan Carlin's hardcore history.

Good luck on today's wagers!

https://soundcloud.com/sportswagerspod

[KVB]

Not sure Element. I listened to this first one on the list, he sounds like he doesn't realize what's going on in football betting.

He's too hung up on "in-game variance" when talking about the refs. Not much new there.

With all do respect, on a general level, I think he's letting the trees get in the way of the forest.

I may listen a little more, to see what else he has to offer. He makes a few old school points so there may be more too it.

Of course, I'm always critical of those worried about what's happening on the field during games and less about handicapping.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

I don't bet much football or basketball, but couldn't you say that if the refs are in fact playing a bigger role in the outcome of games, it will have a significant effect on traditional handicapping/modeling approaches? How to you account for something that is continuing to have a major, major influence, when there is no precedent to determine when it will occur?

[High3rEl3m3nt]

I guess I can sympathize with his frustration, knowing a little about who he is and why the inconsistency is affecting his bottomline.

[KVB]

I don't bet much football or basketball, but couldn't you say that if the refs are in fact playing a bigger role in the outcome of games, it will have a significant effect on traditional handicapping/modeling approaches? How to you account for something that is continuing to have a major, major influence, when there is no precedent to determine when it will occur?

I think it's best to do what we've always done.

When it comes to large numbers, it's all a part of the noise and often times the ref calls just even out over time. It's tough to swallow for any individual game, but when it's all said and done the refs have always been a part of the game, that third team on the field.

Some have tried to cap the refs, especially in the NBA and with umpires in MLB.

In the end, if you are using stats generating on the field of play (like most stats and results) remember that the refs, like the teams, took part in the creation of those final stats.

The refs are, in a sense, already built in to the equation.

Now he's saying don't chase, get the best number, and be careful which books you use.

I guess, as someone who repeats a lot of the same principles, I shouldn't be so critical of such "correct" advice. Even if it's not for me, I should remember he is catering to a different audience.

Thanks for posting.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Agree, that's all you can do, because it'd be foolhardy to attempt to model the impossible. Sherwood's rant--that's how I interpreted it, is understandable--terrible targeting call ends with key defensive player getting ejected. Major effect on game. Significant effect against the value he assigned to his bet.

Yes, there's a lot of general information, but there may be some nuggets, or maybe the nuggets are unearthed in the discussion that follows in this thread.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

sherwood has been around forumville for awhile, I used to keep an eye out for his hockey picks

[jjgold]

nobody knows anything

ALL RANDOM, I laugh at people that think they know outcomes

[KVB]

nobody knows anything

ALL RANDOM, I laugh at people that think they know outcomes

There was a lost of that talk in the podcast I heard. I almost posted that he sounded likw JJ Gold in that respect.

[Ra77er]

I will listen to this guy Element.

I just have to say two weeks ago on the Steele podcast I hadn’t laffed that hard in a while. Reghi went off on a monologue about the tigers and Phil was annoyed, it was fantastic.

I believe Jj gold pointed out the sports action app and I like it. Degen and juice podcast from there is interesting.

KVB needs to do one. I’d much rather listen to sports stuff than look at the news.