150 Day Trial 2025 Sept 1st through March 1st 2026... diary

[usma1992]

Background: Degree in Electrical Engineering... held multiple jobs as a Captain in the Army, Electrical Engineer, Stock Broker, Poker Player, Professional Trainer and now I am a high school teacher. I started building a program from scratch over 15 years ago... and it has taken time and energy and experience but now it is fully automated. I have four programs built or being built. NFL... NCAAF... NCAAB and NBA. I will be running all of the programs this year. However, I will not be betting on NBA until next year. I was so burnt out from running other programs I lost track.

Last year: NFL was breakeven, NCAAF was exceptional, and NCAAB was below my expectations. Each year I upgrade my algorithms and back test them over previous seasons.

NFL2021, 2023, 2024)--- 2022 data was corrupted... I had to toss the whole season

Success rate based on current algorithms.

Bets placed over the course of three seasons. 192
Success rate 61.46%.
Net Units 49

Therefore, NFL is averaging a net win rate of about 16 units per season. I am betting approximately 25% of the games.

Philosophy: I don't bet until Week 4 at a minimum. Stats are based on the current team so I need a few games to accumulate those stats. Basing picks based on last years is dangerous because teams change. For instance, Aaron Rodgers is now a Steeler. Last year, I bet Week 4 and got crushed but ended up being extremely successful Week 5 and moderately successful beyond that.

Typical questions:
How can you adjust for injury? I can't.

How can you adjust for weather? I can't

Dave
Mack the Teach

[usma1992]

NFL Upgrades: I decided to change the way I approached the Vegas spread. I adjust my program based on what the spread is in each game. Without getting into too much detail, I value the Vegas spread to the games more over the course of the season. Weeks 4-8 I take a valuation, Weeks 9-12 a slightly higher valuation and so on. I am trying to use Vegas's spreads against them because they are obviously sitting on more information than I.

In addition, I changed my valuation approach to the season. There is always a debate in my mind when programming. I trying to get the valuation down to a singular nurmber that I can optimize. I track all the past results but produce a singular number which I determine to be (Amount of Games bet * Percentage wins to a certain power). For the NFL, since there really isn't an ability to diversify your bets much because they only play 16 games a weekend, I chose to value Percentage win to a power of 6. This is not the same for Collge Football.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[usma1992]

NCAAF:

I decide to take a much more broad approach to college football. My system is currently generating about 33% of the games picked versus 25% for the NFL. Because there are so many more games in college football, I changed my approach to diversification. Instead of valuing percent wins extremely high in the NFL, I lowered the value of percent wins and increase the value of games bet.

If I can bet significantly more games at 60% win rate vs. just a few games at a 64% rate... I am taking the former rather than the latter.

NCAAF:

I broke out NCAAF in two the same year spans as the NFL, but I separated them. I have data from 2021 and 23 together and 24 as a stand alone.

Using current algorithms

2021/23
Net Bets
591
Percentage Wins
61.93%
Units(Won)
141

2024
Net Bets
288
Percentage Wins
61.11%
Units(64)

So betting about 1/3 on the games... each year with current algorithms is generating approximately 60 net wins.

Dave
MacktheTeach

[usma1992]

Week 1 Picks for College are already generated. I never bet week one because my model is statistical. I need data from the current team not last year's team. If you are interested to see... let me know.

Mack the Teach
Dave

[Optional]

[usma1992]

NCAAF Week 1 Picks... I do not bet until Week 4. However, I think these picks could be used similar to my bowl picks. Go through the teams that had minimal turnover on QB and Head Coaches. If they are playing a team with extreme turnover and my system picked them. Bet them.

Mack the Teach
Dave

	NCAAF	2025Week1				O/U& SPREADS				NO BETS UNTIL WEEK 4
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	C Michigan	12	Toledo	32		44	-15.5	50
7:00 PM	W Michigan	11	Bowling Green	31		42	-8.5	58.5			Under 5*
7:00 PM	Ball St	23	Buffalo	36		59	-6.5	53.5			Over 5*
7:00 PM	Kent St	0	Miami OH	34		34	-31	45.5			Under 5*
7:00 PM	E Michigan	22	Ohio	32		54	-9	49.5
7:00 PM	Akron	7	N Illinois	37		44	-16	46.5
7:30 PM	E Carolina	45	Tulsa	28		73	14	61
8:00 PM	Wyoming	19	Colorado St	31		50	-10	48			Over 5*
9:00 PM	N Texas	40	UTSA	44		84	2	72		Home Plus 3*
9:00 PM	UCLA	14	Washington	21		35	-3.5	47			Under 5*
10:15 PM	Houston	16	Arizona	19		35	-2	44.5			Under 5*
12:00 PM	Texas	38	Arkansas	17		55	14.5	57
12:00 PM	Liberty	36	UMass	16		52	13.5	52.5		Away Minus 3*
12:00 PM	Louisiana Tech	19	W Kentucky	19		38	-13	52.5			Under 5*
12:00 PM	Tulane	26	Navy	30		56	6.5	53.5
12:00 PM	Clemson	39	Pittsburgh	26		65	9.5	54
12:00 PM	Ohio St	36	Northwestern	0		36	28.5	44.5
12:00 PM	Utah	13	Colorado	26		39	-10	47			Under 3*
12:45 PM	UL Monroe	4	Auburn	35		39	-24	46
1:00 PM	Coastal Car	20	Marshall	31		51	-8.5	56.5
2:00 PM	Florida Atlantic	29	Temple	26		55	-2.5	49.5			Over 3*
2:00 PM	Florida Intl	15	Jacksonville St	32		47	-14	58.5
2:30 PM	Michigan St	15	Illinois	20		35	-3.5	47			Under 5*
3:00 PM	Sam Houston	32	Kennesaw St	4		36	13.5	42.5
3:00 PM	Syracuse	29	California	29		58	-7.5	56		Away Plus 3*
3:00 PM	Hawai'i	35	Utah St	37		72	2.5	60		Home Plus 3*	Over 5*
3:30 PM	S Florida	39	Charlotte	24		63	3	52.5		Away Minus 5*	Over 3*
3:30 PM	Penn St	47	Purdue	0		47	28.5	50.5		Away Minus 5*
3:30 PM	Louisville	43	Stanford	16		59	20	57.5
3:30 PM	Boston College	15	SMU	36		51	-15.5	54.5
3:30 PM	Virginia	11	Notre Dame	38		49	-22.5	50.5
3:30 PM	Oregon St	27	Air Force	32		59	4.5	45
3:30 PM	LSU	34	Florida	18		52	4.5	55
4:00 PM	Troy	24	Georgia So	27		51	-7.5	53
4:00 PM	J Madison	33	Old Dominion	22		55	4	51.5
4:00 PM	Baylor	37	West Virginia	30		67	1.5	59			Over 5*
4:00 PM	Nebraska	21	USC	30		51	-9.5	50
4:15 PM	Missouri	18	South Carolina	26		44	-13	44
5:00 PM	Arkansas St	32	Georgia St	33		65	-1	59			Over 5*
6:00 PM	Rutgers	28	Maryland	32		60	-4.5	51
7:00 PM	S Alabama	22	Louisiana	29		51	-8.5	59
7:00 PM	Southern Miss	4	Texas St	54		58	-26	56			Over 5*
7:00 PM	Arizona St	26	Kansas St	28		54	-9	49.5			Over 5*
7:00 PM	Boise St	39	San Jose St	23		62	14	61.5
7:30 PM	Tennessee	26	Georgia	24		50	-9	48
7:30 PM	Oregon	32	Wisconsin	13		45	14	53
7:45 PM	New Mexico St	8	Texas A&M	49		57	-39.5	55.5			Over 5*
8:00 PM	Wake Forest	24	North Carolina	37		61	-10.5	64
8:00 PM	Cincinnati	23	Iowa St	35		58	-8.5	53		Home Minus 3*	Over 5*
8:00 PM	UAB	22	Memphis	46		68	-14	63		Home Minus 3*
9:30 PM	Washington St	41	New Mexico	36		77	13	72.5
10:15 PM	Kansas	18	BYU	27		45	-3	56			Under 5*
10:30 PM	San Diego St	11	UNLV	36		47	-20	54

[redrum448]

You listed week 4 not week 1 ?

[usma1992]

It's Week 1... I don't bet until Week 4...

This is the first weekend.

[redrum448]

can you post week 1 regardless if you dont bet it please? call it preseason week 1 if you want hahaha....

theres a ton of good games in actual week 1 and Id like to get a second opinion

Also, how are you running data for week 4 before 3 games are played? (FYI what if tenn loses 3 games to start the season, is it still a 2 point game vs GA in week 4?)

[usma1992]

That is Week 1....

	NCAAF	2025Week1				O/U& SPREADS				NO BETS UNTIL WEEK 4
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	C Michigan	12	Toledo	32		44	-15.5	50			Under
7:00 PM	W Michigan	11	Bowling Green	31		42	-8.5	58.5			Under
7:00 PM	Ball St	23	Buffalo	36		59	-6.5	53.5			Over
7:00 PM	Kent St	0	Miami OH	34		34	-31	45.5			Under
7:00 PM	E Michigan	22	Ohio	32		54	-9	49.5
7:00 PM	Akron	7	N Illinois	37		44	-16	46.5			Under
7:30 PM	E Carolina	45	Tulsa	28		73	14	61
8:00 PM	Wyoming	19	Colorado St	31		50	-10	48			Over
9:00 PM	N Texas	40	UTSA	44		84	2	72		Home Plus
9:00 PM	UCLA	14	Washington	21		35	-3.5	47			Under
10:15 PM	Houston	16	Arizona	19		35	-2	44.5			Under
12:00 PM	Texas	38	Arkansas	17		55	14.5	57
12:00 PM	Liberty	36	UMass	16		52	13.5	52.5		Away Minus
12:00 PM	Louisiana Tech	19	W Kentucky	19		38	-13	52.5			Under
12:00 PM	Tulane	26	Navy	30		56	6.5	53.5
12:00 PM	Clemson	39	Pittsburgh	26		65	9.5	54
12:00 PM	Ohio St	36	Northwestern	0		36	28.5	44.5
12:00 PM	Utah	13	Colorado	26		39	-10	47			Under
12:45 PM	UL Monroe	4	Auburn	35		39	-24	46
1:00 PM	Coastal Car	20	Marshall	31		51	-8.5	56.5
2:00 PM	Florida Atlantic	29	Temple	26		55	-2.5	49.5
2:00 PM	Florida Intl	15	Jacksonville St	32		47	-14	58.5
2:30 PM	Michigan St	15	Illinois	20		35	-3.5	47			Under
3:00 PM	Sam Houston	32	Kennesaw St	4		36	13.5	42.5
3:00 PM	Syracuse	29	California	29		58	-7.5	56		Away Plus	Over
3:00 PM	Hawai'i	35	Utah St	37		72	2.5	60		Home Plus	Over
3:30 PM	S Florida	39	Charlotte	24		63	3	52.5		Away Minus	Over
3:30 PM	Penn St	47	Purdue	0		47	28.5	50.5		Away Minus
3:30 PM	Louisville	43	Stanford	16		59	20	57.5
3:30 PM	Boston College	15	SMU	36		51	-15.5	54.5			Under
3:30 PM	Virginia	11	Notre Dame	38		49	-22.5	50.5
3:30 PM	Oregon St	27	Air Force	32		59	4.5	45		Home Plus
3:30 PM	LSU	34	Florida	18		52	4.5	55
4:00 PM	Troy	24	Georgia So	27		51	-7.5	53
4:00 PM	J Madison	33	Old Dominion	22		55	4	51.5
4:00 PM	Baylor	37	West Virginia	30		67	1.5	59			Over
4:00 PM	Nebraska	21	USC	30		51	-9.5	50
4:15 PM	Missouri	18	South Carolina	26		44	-13	44
5:00 PM	Arkansas St	32	Georgia St	33		65	-1	59			Over
6:00 PM	Rutgers	28	Maryland	32		60	-4.5	51
7:00 PM	S Alabama	22	Louisiana	29		51	-8.5	59			Under
7:00 PM	Southern Miss	4	Texas St	54		58	-26	56			Over
7:00 PM	Arizona St	26	Kansas St	28		54	-9	49.5			Over
7:00 PM	Boise St	39	San Jose St	23		62	14	61.5
7:30 PM	Tennessee	26	Georgia	24		50	-9	48
7:30 PM	Oregon	32	Wisconsin	13		45	14	53
7:45 PM	New Mexico St	8	Texas A&M	49		57	-39.5	55.5			Over
8:00 PM	Wake Forest	24	North Carolina	37		61	-10.5	64
8:00 PM	Cincinnati	23	Iowa St	35		58	-8.5	53		Home Minus	Over
8:00 PM	UAB	22	Memphis	46		68	-14	63		Home Minus
9:30 PM	Washington St	41	New Mexico	36		77	13	72.5
10:15 PM	Kansas	18	BYU	27		45	-3	56			Under
10:30 PM	San Diego St	11	UNLV	36		47	-20	54			Under

zz0.a9bkihz15idzz

[usma1992]

This is going to be one helluva an interesting season... NFL is ready as soon as they publish the lines.

MackTheTeach

[usma1992]

I haven't run any data yet for Week 4. I will wait until the data updates. The most dangerous weeks are weeks 2 and 3. They are the weeks with minimal data.

MackTheTeach

[daneault23]

The #'s you shared for 2021/2023 and 2024 by itself - do those include betting weeks 1-3 or only including starting to bet Week 4?

[daneault23]

And another question.. those 2021/2023/2024 stats you shared, are those ACTUAL bets or is that taking your updated system and back testing to what WOULD have happened? If it is backtesting only, do you have actual stats on what your systems did back then?

[usma1992]

Daneault23... I don't include any games from Week 1 - Week 3... it is too difficult. The stats from the previous season don't match up to the current roster.

Regarding my algorithms... I try to fine tune them each year and come up with a better solution. My algorithms wil never be perfect. The more data ... I collect the more powerful my system becomes.

NFL was breakeven... NCAAF was awesome... and NCAAB was a disappointment. I did find a clerical error on NCAAB so that isn't completely the systems fault.

MackTheTeach

[daneault23]

I see now, so the records and data you mentioned for these NCAAF numbers are using current algorithms.
2021/23
Net Bets
591
Percentage Wins
61.93%
Units(Won)
141

2024
Net Bets
288
Percentage Wins
61.11%
Units(64)

So I assume you did something similar for these seasons back then - meaning you backtested previous seasons before posting plays in 2021, 2023, and 2024. How did THOSE seasons actual bets go? Because what you're saying for this season is you've backtested for prior seasons and looks promising.

[usma1992]

Daneualt 23,

First, I appreciate your input and your following. I have been trying to fine tune my models for 15 years plus. However, I almost through my computer out of the window Year 6 or 7. I didn't know how to automate the model until year 10 or so. I had several years where the data got corrupted so I had to toss them out. But I have settled in now.

I constantly use the offseason to adjust my approach based on the results and what is logical. For instance, I capped the z scores at -2.25 and 2.25. So if a z score was significantly higher than that number... it maxed out that one category. For example, Alabama basketball maxed out their possessions and points.

So my algorithms get updated on the off season. They way I generate point totals stay consistent and all of the data is live at the time of when the bets would be placed. Meaning that my system is looking at the same data Vegas is looking at the exact same point in time.

Last year, I had a terrible Week 4 in the NFL but still got back to essentially breakeven. NCAAF I did very well. I had the best bowl season, I have ever had. I was something like 14-3. NCAAB I treaded water at best but I have now tracked 10K plus games and I plan to fine tune my algorithms.

I am trying to find where my model is strong and weak against Vegas. At this point, my model should only get stronger. I believe I will be profitable in all three sports.

MackTheTeach

[usma1992]

NFL Picks Week 1

I DON"T BET UNTIL WEEK 4. MackTheTeach

	NFL	2025Week1				O/U& SPREADS				No Bets Until Week 4		10
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET	Actual Away	Actual Home
8:20 PM	DALLAS	21	PHILADELPHIA	27		48	-7	46				0	0
8:00 PM	KANSASCITY	22	LACHARGERS	20		42	3	45			Under	0	0
1:00 PM	PITTSBURGH	21	NYJETS	20		41	3	38.5				0	0
1:00 PM	MIAMI	21	INDIANAPOLIS	21		42	0	47			Under	0	0
1:00 PM	CAROLINA	19	JACKSONVILLE	19		38	-2.5	45.5		Away Plus		0	0
1:00 PM	NYGIANTS	17	WASHINGTON	28		45	-6	46		Home Minus		0	0
1:00 PM	CINCINNATI	28	CLEVELAND	18		46	5.5	45				0	0
1:00 PM	LASVEGAS	19	NEWENGLAND	17		36	-3	42				0	0
1:00 PM	ARIZONA	24	NEWORLEANS	19		43	6	42.5				0	0
1:00 PM	TAMPABAY	27	ATLANTA	23		50	1	48.5		Away Minus		0	0
4:05 PM	TENNESSEE	17	DENVER	24		41	-7.5	41.5				0	0
4:05 PM	SANFRANCISCO	23	SEATTLE	21		44	2.5	45			Under	0	0
4:25 PM	DETROIT	31	GREENBAY	23		54	-1.5	49.5		Away Plus		0	0
4:25 PM	HOUSTON	21	LARAMS	21		42	-2.5	44			Under	0	0
8:20 PM	BALTIMORE	26	BUFFALO	26		52	-1	52.5				0	0
8:15 PM	MINNESOTA	22	CHICAGO	18		40	2	43			Under	0	0

[redrum448]

That is Week 1....

	NCAAF	2025Week1				O/U& SPREADS				NO BETS UNTIL WEEK 4
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	C Michigan	12	Toledo	32		44	-15.5	50			Under
7:00 PM	W Michigan	11	Bowling Green	31		42	-8.5	58.5			Under
7:00 PM	Ball St	23	Buffalo	36		59	-6.5	53.5			Over
7:00 PM	Kent St	0	Miami OH	34		34	-31	45.5			Under
7:00 PM	E Michigan	22	Ohio	32		54	-9	49.5
7:00 PM	Akron	7	N Illinois	37		44	-16	46.5			Under
7:30 PM	E Carolina	45	Tulsa	28		73	14	61
8:00 PM	Wyoming	19	Colorado St	31		50	-10	48			Over
9:00 PM	N Texas	40	UTSA	44		84	2	72		Home Plus
9:00 PM	UCLA	14	Washington	21		35	-3.5	47			Under
10:15 PM	Houston	16	Arizona	19		35	-2	44.5			Under
12:00 PM	Texas	38	Arkansas	17		55	14.5	57
12:00 PM	Liberty	36	UMass	16		52	13.5	52.5		Away Minus
12:00 PM	Louisiana Tech	19	W Kentucky	19		38	-13	52.5			Under
12:00 PM	Tulane	26	Navy	30		56	6.5	53.5
12:00 PM	Clemson	39	Pittsburgh	26		65	9.5	54
12:00 PM	Ohio St	36	Northwestern	0		36	28.5	44.5
12:00 PM	Utah	13	Colorado	26		39	-10	47			Under
12:45 PM	UL Monroe	4	Auburn	35		39	-24	46
1:00 PM	Coastal Car	20	Marshall	31		51	-8.5	56.5
2:00 PM	Florida Atlantic	29	Temple	26		55	-2.5	49.5
2:00 PM	Florida Intl	15	Jacksonville St	32		47	-14	58.5
2:30 PM	Michigan St	15	Illinois	20		35	-3.5	47			Under
3:00 PM	Sam Houston	32	Kennesaw St	4		36	13.5	42.5
3:00 PM	Syracuse	29	California	29		58	-7.5	56		Away Plus	Over
3:00 PM	Hawai'i	35	Utah St	37		72	2.5	60		Home Plus	Over
3:30 PM	S Florida	39	Charlotte	24		63	3	52.5		Away Minus	Over
3:30 PM	Penn St	47	Purdue	0		47	28.5	50.5		Away Minus
3:30 PM	Louisville	43	Stanford	16		59	20	57.5
3:30 PM	Boston College	15	SMU	36		51	-15.5	54.5			Under
3:30 PM	Virginia	11	Notre Dame	38		49	-22.5	50.5
3:30 PM	Oregon St	27	Air Force	32		59	4.5	45		Home Plus
3:30 PM	LSU	34	Florida	18		52	4.5	55
4:00 PM	Troy	24	Georgia So	27		51	-7.5	53
4:00 PM	J Madison	33	Old Dominion	22		55	4	51.5
4:00 PM	Baylor	37	West Virginia	30		67	1.5	59			Over
4:00 PM	Nebraska	21	USC	30		51	-9.5	50
4:15 PM	Missouri	18	South Carolina	26		44	-13	44
5:00 PM	Arkansas St	32	Georgia St	33		65	-1	59			Over
6:00 PM	Rutgers	28	Maryland	32		60	-4.5	51
7:00 PM	S Alabama	22	Louisiana	29		51	-8.5	59			Under
7:00 PM	Southern Miss	4	Texas St	54		58	-26	56			Over
7:00 PM	Arizona St	26	Kansas St	28		54	-9	49.5			Over
7:00 PM	Boise St	39	San Jose St	23		62	14	61.5
7:30 PM	Tennessee	26	Georgia	24		50	-9	48
7:30 PM	Oregon	32	Wisconsin	13		45	14	53
7:45 PM	New Mexico St	8	Texas A&M	49		57	-39.5	55.5			Over
8:00 PM	Wake Forest	24	North Carolina	37		61	-10.5	64
8:00 PM	Cincinnati	23	Iowa St	35		58	-8.5	53		Home Minus	Over
8:00 PM	UAB	22	Memphis	46		68	-14	63		Home Minus
9:30 PM	Washington St	41	New Mexico	36		77	13	72.5
10:15 PM	Kansas	18	BYU	27		45	-3	56			Under
10:30 PM	San Diego St	11	UNLV	36		47	-20	54			Under

zz0.a9bkihz15idzz

im confused, GA and Tenn arent playing till Sept 13th... how can Sept 13th be week 1

[daneault23]

Daneualt 23,

First, I appreciate your input and your following. I have been trying to fine tune my models for 15 years plus. However, I almost through my computer out of the window Year 6 or 7. I didn't know how to automate the model until year 10 or so. I had several years where the data got corrupted so I had to toss them out. But I have settled in now.

I constantly use the offseason to adjust my approach based on the results and what is logical. For instance, I capped the z scores at -2.25 and 2.25. So if a z score was significantly higher than that number... it maxed out that one category. For example, Alabama basketball maxed out their possessions and points.

So my algorithms get updated on the off season. They way I generate point totals stay consistent and all of the data is live at the time of when the bets would be placed. Meaning that my system is looking at the same data Vegas is looking at the exact same point in time.

Last year, I had a terrible Week 4 in the NFL but still got back to essentially breakeven. NCAAF I did very well. I had the best bowl season, I have ever had. I was something like 14-3. NCAAB I treaded water at best but I have now tracked 10K plus games and I plan to fine tune my algorithms.

I am trying to find where my model is strong and weak against Vegas. At this point, my model should only get stronger. I believe I will be profitable in all three sports.

MackTheTeach

Thanks for your lengthy response usma1992. I can't fathom the amount of work you've put in for these systems.

In short, I'm asking what were your actual records in NCAAF in 2021, 2023, and 2024? I know if youre saying if you take your system as of today with all the updates you've made and backtest it to those seasons you'd hit 61% but backtesting and betting during the season are 2 different things.

[usma1992]

Week 1 NCAAF... Some of the lines weren't out... MacktheTeach

	NCAAF	2025Week1				O/U& SPREADS				NO BETS UNTIL WEEK 4
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET		Actual Away	Actual Home
12:00 PM	Iowa St	30	Kansas St	27		57	-3	49.5					0	0
6:30 PM	Fresno St	17	Kansas	26		43	-12.5	50.5					0	0
7:00 PM	Sam Houston	21	W Kentucky	18		39	-10	60.5					0	0
7:30 PM	Stanford	23	Hawai'i	32		55	-2	50					0	0
4:00 PM	Houston	2	UNLV	28		30	-24.5	64.5					0	0
5:30 PM	Boise St	42	S Florida	28		70	6.5	64					0	0
6:00 PM	Ohio	23	Rutgers	26		49	-14.5	46.5					0	0
7:00 PM	E Carolina	28	NC State	29		57	-11.5	60.5					0	0
7:00 PM	Jacksonville St	24	UCF	35		59	-16.5	53			Over		0	0
7:00 PM	Wyoming	28	Akron	20		48	7.5	50.5					0	0
8:00 PM	Buffalo	12	Minnesota	26		38	-16.5	44.5			Under		0	0
9:00 PM	Nebraska	27	Cincinnati	21		48	6.5	53					0	0
9:00 PM	Miami OH	12	Wisconsin	22		34	-17.5	40					0	0
7:00 PM	App State	38	Charlotte	22		60	7	53.5					0	0
7:00 PM	Kennesaw St	13	Wake Forest	36		49	-17.5	52			Under		0	0
7:00 PM	W Michigan	11	Michigan St	27		38	-19.5	49.5			Under		0	0
8:00 PM	Auburn	28	Baylor	28		56	2	57		Home Plus	Under		0	0
8:00 PM	Georgia Tech	25	Colorado	25		50	4	55		Home Plus	Under		0	0
9:30 PM	UNLV	24	Sam Houston	16		40	13	58.5			Under		0	0
10:30 PM	C Michigan	15	San Jose St	34		49	-12.5	51			Under		0	0
12:00 PM	Ball St	28	Purdue	23		51	-17	50.5					0	0
12:00 PM	Syracuse	24	Tennessee	39		63	-14	51			Over		0	0
12:00 PM	Florida Atlantic	23	Maryland	39		62	-14	60					0	0
12:00 PM	Texas	20	Ohio St	18		38	-2.5	48			Under		0	0
12:00 PM	Northwestern	10	Tulane	28		38	-6	46					0	0
12:00 PM	Mississippi St	35	Southern Miss	17		52	11	61					0	0
12:45 PM	Toledo	21	Kentucky	16		37	-7.5	48.5			Under		0	0
2:30 PM	Old Dominion	12	Indiana	37		49	-22.5	54.5					0	0
3:30 PM	Nevada	0	Penn St	45		45	-44.5	57			Under		0	0
3:30 PM	Temple	26	UMass	26		52	3.5	49		Home Plus			0	0
3:30 PM	Marshall	8	Georgia	41		49	-39.5	55.5					0	0
3:30 PM	Alabama	31	Florida St	5		36	13.5	50.5		Away Minus			0	0
6:00 PM	Coastal Car	23	Virginia	33		56	-12	58					0	0
7:00 PM	UTSA	28	Texas A&M	38		66	-22	57			Over		0	0
7:30 PM	New Mexico	19	Michigan	37		56	-36.5	50			Over		0	0
7:30 PM	UTEP	28	Utah St	41		69	-4	61		Home Minus			0	0
7:30 PM	Missouri	15	USC	40		55	-35	60			Under		0	0
7:30 PM	LSU	30	Clemson	35		65	-4	57.5			Over		0	0
7:45 PM	Georgia St	8	Mississippi	55		63	-39	61.5					0	0
8:00 PM	E Michigan	25	Texas St	44		69	-13.5	58.5			Over		0	0
8:00 PM	Rice	16	Louisiana	28		44	-13	48.5					0	0
9:30 PM	Georgia So	22	Fresno St	23		45	-1.5	53.5			Under		0	0
10:30 PM	Hawai'i	26	Arizona	29		55	-13.5	55.5					0	0
10:30 PM	California	27	Oregon St	25		52	-3	50.5					0	0
11:00 PM	Colorado St	15	Washington	30		45	-20	52.5			Under		0	0
11:00 PM	Utah	18	UCLA	13		31	6	50.5			Under		0	0
3:00 PM	Virginia Tech	15	South Carolina	26		41	-8	49			Under		0	0
7:30 PM	Notre Dame	25	Miami	32		57	2	49		Home Plus	Over		0	0
8:00 PM	TCU	33	North Carolina	26		59	3.5	58.5					0	0
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12:00 AM	0	#N/A	0	#N/A		#N/A	0	0		#N/A	#N/A		0	0
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[usma1992]

Daneualt 23,

I understand what you are asking. 2021 was my first effort to fully modernize my programs. They didn't work. None of them. 2023 I began fine tuning all of them. I watched every game that I could and fine tuned my models as the season progressed. I got chastised by several people saying that I was cheating. I wasn't cheating, I was fine tuning. NFL was unsuccessful. NCAAF was successful toward the end of the season and finished breakeven. NCAAB was successful but it turns out there was an error in the programming. So though, it worked and hit around the 58-60% it was all wrong because I had a minus sign deep within the code and not a plus sign.

2024 NFL was about breakeven maybe a little bit under. NCAAF worked the best it ever worked and was around 60%. Bowl season, I crushed. 2024 NCAAB was a complete worthless effort because I didn't catch the programming error until the end of the season. It was close to breakeven but I had to revamp the model.

Now, the positives is that all my data is pure. Which means that even though there was an error in NCAAB, I was able to fix that in a matter of minutes and rerun the data without the mistake.

At this point, I am using the approach of the Law of Large Numbers. I can now sort every game from all three seasons and see where the system performed and fell short. It is very easy to see where my system is strong and weak relative to Vegas.

The debate for me has always been then the same. Do I fine tune the model around performance (Percentage win rate) or fine tune it around the amount of games I bet and units won(Units won)? The advantage of having a percentage win rate model is that you bet less games and have less of your bankroll on the line each week. I try to keep my bets to 3-5% of my bankroll. The disadvantage is that your potential of having a disasterous week by only betting 10 or 12 games per weekend is greater. The advantage of the Units Won model is that you spread the risk over more games which helps eliminate the downside risk. The disadvantage of a Units Won model is that you have more of your bankroll on the line each night or weekend. If you are betting 25 games using 4% of your bankroll as a betting size... 100% of your bankroll is on the line.

I decide to split the two philsophies and come up with a model that attempts to optimize the units won by betting more games while keeping a minimum threshold success rate that the models are not allowed to fall below.

Right now those are where are my model are geared toward.

Dave
MackTheTeach

[usma1992]

Using current algorithms: (I have loosened it to produce more units but still maintain the 60% performance level)

The current picks published are using these algorithms. Again, I don't bet until Week 4.

Yes, this is based on past performance but all of the information is pure. The data is perfect at the exact same time that Vegas produced the lines. My projected outcomes of each game have been tested against the algorithms. I understand that you are generating a model based on past data but I am comfortable where my models sit. Each year I have gotten significantly stronger.

NCAAF

Games Bet 988
Games Won 602
Units Won 216

Percentage Win Rate (60.93%)

Games Bet Per Weekend 33 Bets

NFL

Games Bet 314
Games Won 204
Units Won 94

Percentage Win Rate (64.97%)

Games Bet Per Weekend 8 Bets

I believe that with the amount of bets I am placing and the success rate, I can eliminate some of the downside risk and still perform. I got a lot of wiggle room above 52.38% to still be successful.

Dave
MackTheTeach

[daneault23]

I'll respond to the previous response later but W. Kentucky plays Sam Houston tomorrow. Those 2 teams opponents listed are different.

[daneault23]

GL this season usma1992, I'll be following along. I went back to the 2024 NCAAF season to capture the totals and this is what I got:

Regular Season:


Bowl Season:


2024 NCAAF Totals:


Heck of a season, that's for sure. You had 23 plays week 4, 14 in week 5 and then less than 10 in each of the following weeks until week 12 where you opened it up to 16 plays and went 4-12. Most weeks were about 6 plays on average outside of Weeks 4, 5, and 12.

For this season, based on your backtested stats are you really going to play about 26 (288/11) games per week? That seems a bit much based on last year's data. Again, hope nothing but the best this NCAAF season.

[usma1992]

daneault23,

I appreciate you doing the research on my past picks. Though that season was impressive at some level... I am trying to develop several models that diversify the risk based on the amount of bets and still keep a level of performance. A mutual fund of sports betting.

My algorithms need to be predictive but based on past performance. Spent the day moving my son back into college. But I did learn a valuable lesson today as I watched the scores roll in. Vegas definitely has more information on the new teams. Which doesn't bother me because I don't bet until Week 4.

Vegas also has more information throughout the season. My model attempts to use their information against them. It may be foolish but I am all in.

I guess we will see if my efforts are futile. And yes I have increased my bets while trying to maintain a certain level of success. Interesting concept... more bets... still success... less down side risk...

Dave
MackTheTeach