I see three under bets and thats it
-
Comment -
Yes...
I am only betting the tightened system this week because the loose one predicted 33 games again. There are 8 total bets.
But last week you didn't see the OSU bet or the Arizona(NFL) bet.
I didn't think it was this hard. Everyone else sees them. Scroll right I guess. Don't know what to tell you.
I don't think you are seeing all the bets from some reason.
Dave
MackTheTeachComment -
NFL Week 6 after a huge 5-1 this past weekend.NFL 2025Week6 WAIT WEEK 4 MACKTHETEACH Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 8:15 PM PHILADELPHIA 22 NYGIANTS 18 40 7.5 41 9:30 AM DENVER 29 NYJETS 16 45 7 43.5 1:00 PM CLEVELAND 19 PITTSBURGH 18 37 -5 38 1:00 PM ARIZONA 15 INDIANAPOLIS 27 42 -6.5 47.5 1:00 PM LARAMS 33 BALTIMORE 20 53 7.5 45 Over 1:00 PM SEATTLE 21 JACKSONVILLE 23 44 0 46.5 1:00 PM DALLAS 32 CAROLINA 27 59 3.5 49.5 Away Minus 1:00 PM LACHARGERS 25 MIAMI 15 40 4 43 1:00 PM NEWENGLAND 24 NEWORLEANS 17 41 3.5 46 4:05 PM TENNESSEE 16 LASVEGAS 21 37 -4.5 41.5 Under 4:25 PM SANFRANCISCO 27 TAMPABAY 24 51 -3 47.5 Over 4:25 PM CINCINNATI 12 GREENBAY 31 43 -14.5 44.5 8:20 PM DETROIT 27 KANSASCITY 25 52 -1 50 Over 7:15 PM BUFFALO 30 ATLANTA 22 52 3.5 48.5 Away Minus 8:15 PM CHICAGO 23 WASHINGTON 30 53 -4.5 50 Home Minus Over 12:00 AM 0 #N/A 0 #N/A #N/A 0 0 #N/A #N/A
Dave
MackTheTeachComment -
Nice win last night .... MTSU +2.5. Only 8 bets this week under tightened system. Maybe next week it will be ready. If anyone wants the loosened version I can publish it, let me know.
I have choosen to disregard until it decreases the amount of bets... but I did notice it is 2-0 so far.
Dave
MackTheTeachComment -
My favorite bet of the day is Utah. I liked them with Leavitt, Arizona St. QB, still playing. He is now out.
Dave
MackTheTeach
Comment -
Interesting weekend so far... by the books on NCAAF... I went 5-3. However, if you have followed me before... I don't count OT. People say that I am out of my mind. When it comes to modelling there is no way to account for extra time in a game.
So NCAAF... Army... my Alma Mater was up by 24 with 2 minutes or so. The spread was 17.5 which normally wouldn't have mattered but Army let them waltz down the field after a BLOCKED FIELD GOAL. Lost by a half a point. Arizona was up by 10 with 4 minutes to go... they let BYU beat them in overtime.
I went 5-3 monetarily... but the model went 6-2. I know some will have a sticking point and individuals have in the past. I don't count OT. BYU won in OT after Arizona gave up. I count that as a win for my model... it had Arizona +2.5 it was right.
Fast forward to today. In the NFL, I don't bet against backup QBs because they are hungry but I do bet or stop betting overs if significant wind or rain. In Baltimore, they had 30 mph winds. I tried to cancel my bet but MGM wouldn't let me. I don't count that against my system.
Disregarding that bet I'm 1-3... Dallas couldn't hold on. With three bets left.
I'll tally at the end... should have been 7-1 in college... not sure about pro... most of it is happening now.
Dave
MackTheTeachComment -
So I was hoping the betting would normalize with NCAAF... instead it is betting more games this week. It is betting 39 picks on the loosened system. The loosened system hit 56.25% last week. The tightened system hit 75%. Staying with tightened system for now.NCAAF 2025Week8 STARTS WEEK 4 MACKTHETEACH.COM Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:00 PM New Mexico St 15 Liberty 25 40 -10.5 47 7:30 PM Arkansas St 26 S Alabama 39 65 -6.5 60 8:00 PM Florida Intl 23 W Kentucky 39 62 -7.5 57.5 7:00 PM Delaware 36 Jacksonville St 31 67 2.5 57.5 7:00 PM UTEP 29 Sam Houston 11 40 2.5 47.5 7:30 PM Tulsa 16 E Carolina 40 56 -16.5 54.5 7:00 PM Louisville 17 Miami 25 42 -13 53.5 Under 8:00 PM Nebraska 32 Minnesota 12 44 6.5 46.5 9:00 PM San Jose St 38 Utah St 29 67 -4 64.5 10:30 PM North Carolina 7 California 28 35 -10.5 47.5 12:00 PM E Michigan 21 Miami OH 20 41 -13 48 12:00 PM UConn 37 Boston College 21 58 -1.5 57.5 12:00 PM Georgia Tech 30 Duke 30 60 -2.5 61 12:00 PM C Michigan 16 Bowling Green 24 40 -5.5 42 12:00 PM LSU 17 Vanderbilt 24 41 -2.5 49.5 12:00 PM Washington 18 Michigan 23 41 -5.5 51 12:00 PM Arizona 27 Houston 20 47 -2.5 47 12:00 PM Baylor 35 TCU 38 73 -3 65.5 Away Plus 12:00 PM Army 29 Tulane 28 57 -10.5 46.5 12:45 PM Oklahoma 26 South Carolina 1 27 4.5 43 1:00 PM West Virginia 14 UCF 37 51 -7 48.5 2:00 PM Kent St 0 Toledo 47 47 -24.5 52 2:30 PM Buffalo 31 UMass 9 40 17.5 43.5 3:00 PM Troy 31 UL Monroe 11 42 6 46.5 3:00 PM Purdue 24 Northwestern 23 47 -3 48.5 3:30 PM Coastal Car 14 App State 43 57 -11.5 49.5 3:30 PM N Illinois 6 Ohio 22 28 -12 43 Home Minus 3:30 PM Old Dominion 17 J Madison 27 44 -2 47.5 3:30 PM Temple 30 Charlotte 14 44 10.5 47.5 3:30 PM SMU 18 Clemson 31 49 -9 55 3:30 PM Michigan St 2 Indiana 47 49 -26.5 53.5 3:30 PM Texas St 41 Marshall 31 72 2.5 65 Away Minus 3:30 PM Akron 20 Ball St 14 34 -1.5 43.5 3:30 PM UNLV 22 Boise St 42 64 -10.5 63 3:30 PM UTSA 29 N Texas 35 64 -4.5 67.5 3:30 PM Mississippi 31 Georgia 29 60 -7 54.5 3:30 PM Texas A&M 43 Arkansas 24 67 7.5 62 Away Minus 3:30 PM Ohio St 24 Wisconsin 0 24 27.5 41.5 Under 3:30 PM Wyoming 32 Air Force 34 66 -5 58.5 Away Plus Over 4:00 PM Memphis 47 UAB 16 63 21.5 64 Away Minus 4:00 PM Texas Tech 46 Arizona St 18 64 11.5 48.5 4:15 PM Mississippi St 21 Florida 20 41 -10 52.5 5:00 PM Southern Miss 38 Louisiana 18 56 4 54.5 Over 6:30 PM Washington St 15 Virginia 46 61 -17.5 56.5 6:30 PM Oregon 42 Rutgers 18 60 16 60.5 Away Minus 7:00 PM Georgia St 29 Georgia So 33 62 -6.5 59 7:00 PM Hawai'i 37 Colorado St 19 56 -1.5 54.5 7:00 PM Maryland 24 UCLA 18 42 -3 51.5 7:00 PM Penn St 10 Iowa 18 28 -3 38.5 7:00 PM Texas 32 Kentucky 7 39 12 43.5 7:30 PM Florida Atlantic 29 S Florida 48 77 -21.5 72.5 7:30 PM Pittsburgh 40 Syracuse 25 65 11 56.5 7:30 PM USC 32 Notre Dame 29 61 -8 62 7:30 PM Tennessee 27 Alabama 38 65 -8 60 7:45 PM Missouri 32 Auburn 12 44 -2 44.5 8:00 PM Cincinnati 39 Oklahoma St 13 52 21 58 8:00 PM Utah 29 BYU 19 48 3.5 47.5 9:45 PM Nevada 11 New Mexico 30 41 -10.5 49.5 10:30 PM Florida St 46 Stanford 14 60 17.5 54.5
Dave
MackTheTeachComment -
So... I am not sure what direction I am heading this weekend...
Last weekend... NCAAF ... financially finished 5-3... my model doesn't take into account OT... so my model was 6-2. I could have easily been 7-1. The loose model finished 56% so not as impressive... but profitable.
This week I expected the system to produce 25 or less games as the numbers normalize. It produced 39 games on the loose model which is the most ever or 11 on the tight system.
I only bet the tight system but why aren't my normalizing... why are they going up. I am half tempted to bet $10 a game on all 39 just for giggles. I did win with both models last weekend so I don't know what to think.
Do I just wait another week to see what happens. I should be betting around 20 games.
Dave
MackTheTeachComment -
Got crushed in NFL... I threw the Baltimore game out because of 30mph winds but went 1-6. Tough weekend... knocked me back to 500 which sucks but that is the nature of the beast.
Looking forward to the coming weekend. I will post NFL today.
Dave
MackTheTeachComment -
testingComment -
I tightened up NFL quite a bit... I changed the algorithms to back test and move forward. Amazingly, it kept most of weeks 5 wins and eliminated most of week 6 losses. I am ok with that moving forward. Unfortunately, it has no picks for week 7... None.
I am half tempted to bet all 39 college football bets... nothing major... $10 a pop and see what happens. A game starts tonight.
NFL generated no picks. NCAAF generated 39 loose... 11 tight...
Dave
MackTheTeachComment -
Good under last night ...was scary after 21 points in 1st qtr.
Can you explain why baylor is a pick when the are getting 3 points and you predict them to lose by 3?
It seems Arizona is a better pick getting 2.5 and you have them winning by 7 ( its 1 slot up, was that supposed to be the pick?)Comment -
Redrum...
I actually doubled down on the under after 21 points and got under 61.5 so I won both bets. I said screw it this morning... I opening up college football.
Record
NCAAF
Loose
58-59
Tight
32-12
NFL
Loose
9-9-1
Tight
7-1
The problem is that NFL isn' t producing many bets. Unfortunately, NFL is really hard. I am trying to come up with more bets that work this year and past history.
Dave
MackTheTeach
Comment -
NCAAF System LooseNCAAF 2025Week8 STARTS WEEK 4 MACKTHETEACH.COM Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:00 PM New Mexico St 15 Liberty 25 40 -10.5 47 7:30 PM Arkansas St 26 S Alabama 39 65 -6.5 60 Over 8:00 PM Florida Intl 23 W Kentucky 39 62 -7.5 57.5 7:00 PM Delaware 36 Jacksonville St 31 67 2.5 57.5 7:00 PM UTEP 29 Sam Houston 11 40 2.5 47.5 Away Minus 7:30 PM Tulsa 16 E Carolina 40 56 -16.5 54.5 Over 7:00 PM Louisville 17 Miami 25 42 -13 53.5 Under 8:00 PM Nebraska 32 Minnesota 12 44 6.5 46.5 9:00 PM San Jose St 38 Utah St 29 67 -4 64.5 Away Plus 10:30 PM North Carolina 7 California 28 35 -10.5 47.5 Under 12:00 PM E Michigan 21 Miami OH 20 41 -13 48 12:00 PM UConn 37 Boston College 21 58 -1.5 57.5 Away Plus 12:00 PM Georgia Tech 30 Duke 30 60 -2.5 61 12:00 PM C Michigan 16 Bowling Green 24 40 -5.5 42 12:00 PM LSU 17 Vanderbilt 24 41 -2.5 49.5 12:00 PM Washington 18 Michigan 23 41 -5.5 51 12:00 PM Arizona 27 Houston 20 47 -2.5 47 12:00 PM Baylor 35 TCU 38 73 -3 65.5 12:00 PM Army 29 Tulane 28 57 -10.5 46.5 12:45 PM Oklahoma 26 South Carolina 1 27 4.5 43 Away Minus 1:00 PM West Virginia 14 UCF 37 51 -7 48.5 Over 2:00 PM Kent St 0 Toledo 47 47 -24.5 52 2:30 PM Buffalo 31 UMass 9 40 17.5 43.5 3:00 PM Troy 31 UL Monroe 11 42 6 46.5 Away Minus 3:00 PM Purdue 24 Northwestern 23 47 -3 48.5 3:30 PM Coastal Car 14 App State 43 57 -11.5 49.5 Over 3:30 PM N Illinois 6 Ohio 22 28 -12 43 Home Minus 3:30 PM Old Dominion 17 J Madison 27 44 -2 47.5 Under 3:30 PM Temple 30 Charlotte 14 44 10.5 47.5 3:30 PM SMU 18 Clemson 31 49 -9 55 Under 3:30 PM Michigan St 2 Indiana 47 49 -26.5 53.5 Under 3:30 PM Texas St 41 Marshall 31 72 2.5 65 3:30 PM Akron 20 Ball St 14 34 -1.5 43.5 Under 3:30 PM UNLV 22 Boise St 42 64 -10.5 63 3:30 PM UTSA 29 N Texas 35 64 -4.5 67.5 3:30 PM Mississippi 31 Georgia 29 60 -7 54.5 Away Plus 3:30 PM Texas A&M 43 Arkansas 24 67 7.5 62 3:30 PM Ohio St 24 Wisconsin 0 24 27.5 41.5 Under 3:30 PM Wyoming 32 Air Force 34 66 -5 58.5 Away Plus 4:00 PM Memphis 47 UAB 16 63 21.5 64 4:00 PM Texas Tech 46 Arizona St 18 64 11.5 48.5 Away Minus 4:15 PM Mississippi St 21 Florida 20 41 -10 52.5 5:00 PM Southern Miss 38 Louisiana 18 56 4 54.5 Away Minus Over 6:30 PM Washington St 15 Virginia 46 61 -17.5 56.5 Over 6:30 PM Oregon 42 Rutgers 18 60 16 60.5 7:00 PM Georgia St 29 Georgia So 33 62 -6.5 59 Over 7:00 PM Hawai'i 37 Colorado St 19 56 -1.5 54.5 Away Plus 7:00 PM Maryland 24 UCLA 18 42 -3 51.5 7:00 PM Penn St 10 Iowa 18 28 -3 38.5 7:00 PM Texas 32 Kentucky 7 39 12 43.5 7:30 PM Florida Atlantic 29 S Florida 48 77 -21.5 72.5 7:30 PM Pittsburgh 40 Syracuse 25 65 11 56.5 7:30 PM USC 32 Notre Dame 29 61 -8 62 Away Plus 7:30 PM Tennessee 27 Alabama 38 65 -8 60 7:45 PM Missouri 32 Auburn 12 44 -2 44.5 8:00 PM Cincinnati 39 Oklahoma St 13 52 21 58 8:00 PM Utah 29 BYU 19 48 3.5 47.5 9:45 PM Nevada 11 New Mexico 30 41 -10.5 49.5 Under 10:30 PM Florida St 46 Stanford 14 60 17.5 54.5 Away Minus
Dave
MackTheTeachComment -
So baylors a bet on tight but not loose?Comment -
Toss Baylor ... small data issue... I like the over in that game....
This model is combining loose and tight to create bets but not loose percentage. Baylor is too close to the right Vegas spread.
Dave
MackTheTeachComment -
That’s awesome, Mack. Fifteen years of grinding and still improving — that’s real dedication. Love how you’re fine-tuning every offseason. That 14-3 bowl run proves your system’s paying off. Keep it up, man!Originally posted by usma1992Comment -
Updates... I continue to work on algorithms. They have to work in the past and predict the future obviously.
NCAAF
Week 4 Tight 12-1 Loose 6-11
Week 5 Tight 6-2 Loose 3-19(Terrible Week)
Week 6 Tight 7-7 Loose 6-8
Week 7 Tight 7-2 Loose 9-9
Week 8 Tight 4-0 Loose 13-11
I noticed that around Week 7 the numbers are starting to normalize a little. I have changed the betting output so you can differentiate the Tight vs. Loose. The Tight get a 5 star.NCAAF 2025Week9 STARTS WEEK 4 MACKTHETEACH.COM Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:00 PM Kennesaw St 26 Florida Intl 24 50 2.5 49 7:30 PM W Kentucky 24 Louisiana Tech 25 49 -3.5 50 Away Plus 5* 7:30 PM Middle Tenn 21 Delaware 37 58 -10 55 9:00 PM Missouri St 22 New Mexico St 26 48 2 52 Under 5* 7:30 PM S Alabama 37 Georgia St 22 59 6 56 7:00 PM N Texas 51 Charlotte 10 61 26.5 61.5 Away Minus 7:30 PM California 24 Virginia Tech 21 45 -4.5 50 10:00 PM Boise St 44 Nevada 6 50 22 51 Away Minus 12:00 PM Syracuse 22 Georgia Tech 38 60 -17.5 55 12:00 PM UCLA 6 Indiana 41 47 -24 55 12:00 PM Virginia 39 North Carolina 8 47 9.5 51.5 Away Minus 12:00 PM Rutgers 31 Purdue 33 64 2.5 59 Home Plus 5* 12:00 PM SMU 25 Wake Forest 25 50 3.5 54 Home Plus 5* Under 5* 12:00 PM Mississippi 21 Oklahoma 26 47 -4.5 53 Under 12:00 PM Ohio 33 E Michigan 21 54 10.5 59.5 12:00 PM Bowling Green 30 Kent St 10 40 8.5 49 12:00 PM Northwestern 14 Nebraska 22 36 -7.5 43.5 Under 5* 12:00 PM App State 30 Old Dominion 32 62 -13.5 63 12:00 PM Kansas St 24 Kansas 23 47 -2.5 56.5 Under 12:00 PM S Florida 35 Memphis 30 65 4 64.5 12:45 PM Auburn 31 Arkansas 28 59 1 58 1:00 PM Akron 14 Buffalo 34 48 -10.5 48 3:00 PM UConn 34 Rice 25 59 10.5 48.5 3:00 PM Utah St 24 New Mexico 33 57 -2.5 62 Under 3:30 PM UMass 11 C Michigan 33 44 -15.5 47.5 3:30 PM NC State 18 Pittsburgh 35 53 -7 57.5 Under 3:30 PM W Michigan 17 Miami OH 10 27 -2 41.5 Under 3:30 PM Ball St 7 N Illinois 16 23 -5.5 41 Under 5* 3:30 PM Minnesota 6 Iowa 19 25 -9 38.5 3:30 PM UL Monroe 10 Southern Miss 37 47 -12.5 50 3:30 PM San Diego St 17 Fresno St 12 29 3.5 48 3:30 PM Temple 29 Tulsa 25 54 6 53.5 Home Plus 5* 3:30 PM Missouri 36 Vanderbilt 21 57 -2.5 52.5 3:30 PM BYU 20 Iowa St 22 42 -2.5 49 Under 3:30 PM Alabama 31 South Carolina 1 32 13.5 47.5 Away Minus Under 5* 3:30 PM Illinois 18 Washington 27 45 -5 55 Under 3:30 PM Florida Atlantic 31 Navy 41 72 -14.5 62.5 3:30 PM Toledo 30 Washington St 11 41 -1 49 4:00 PM Baylor 38 Cincinnati 31 69 -5.5 67 Away Plus 4:00 PM Oklahoma St 0 Texas Tech 62 62 -38.5 57 4:15 PM Texas 24 Mississippi St 16 40 6.5 47 6:00 PM TCU 44 West Virginia 16 60 15 57.5 Away Minus 7:00 PM Stanford 5 Miami 38 43 -30 48 Under 5* 7:00 PM Louisiana 14 Troy 29 43 -9.5 49.5 Home Minus 5* Under 7:00 PM Wisconsin 0 Oregon 42 42 -34 46 7:00 PM Georgia So 27 Arkansas St 37 64 -2 62 Home Minus 7:30 PM Boston College 9 Louisville 42 51 -24 55 Under 5* 7:30 PM Michigan 33 Michigan St 9 42 14 48.5 7:30 PM Texas A&M 27 LSU 11 38 2.5 48.5 Away Minus Under 7:30 PM Colorado St 17 Wyoming 29 46 -5.5 46 7:45 PM Tennessee 38 Kentucky 25 63 9 55 8:00 PM Houston 20 Arizona St 26 46 -7.5 48 Under 10:15 PM Colorado 9 Utah 38 47 -14.5 51.5
My game plan for next year is to stay tight until the numbers show me that they are normalizing. The look to be ok starting Week 7 this year. I can't afford to go 3-19 on the loose system Week 5. It destroys your bankroll.
Dave
MackTheTeachComment -
I'm going to work on NFL again this week before I publish. It didn't have any picks last weekend.
Dave
MackTheTeachComment -
Isn't western Kentuckys QB still outComment -
He wasn't on injury report but they did pull him just before game time. Glad the backup did will.
Dave
MackTheTeachComment -
NFL Week 8NFL 2025Week8 WAIT WEEK 4 MACKTHETEACH 10 Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET Actual Away Actual Home 8:15 PM MINNESOTA 20 LACHARGERS 23 43 -3 44.5 0 0 1:00 PM NYJETS 20 CINCINNATI 20 40 -6.5 44.5 0 0 1:00 PM SANFRANCISCO 18 HOUSTON 18 36 0 41 0 0 1:00 PM CHICAGO 28 BALTIMORE 23 51 -6.5 50 Away Plus 5* 0 0 1:00 PM MIAMI 13 ATLANTA 28 41 -7 44.5 Home Minus 0 0 1:00 PM BUFFALO 29 CAROLINA 22 51 7.5 45.5 0 0 1:00 PM NYGIANTS 22 PHILADELPHIA 22 44 -7 44 0 0 1:00 PM CLEVELAND 15 NEWENGLAND 22 37 -7 40.5 0 0 4:05 PM TAMPABAY 26 NEWORLEANS 19 45 4.5 47 0 0 4:25 PM TENNESSEE 11 INDIANAPOLIS 35 46 -14 47 Home Minus 0 0 4:25 PM DALLAS 26 DENVER 30 56 -3.5 50 Over 0 0 8:20 PM GREENBAY 23 PITTSBURGH 17 40 3 45 0 0 8:15 PM WASHINGTON 19 KANSASCITY 30 49 -10.5 48 0 0 12:00 AM 0 #N/A 0 #N/A #N/A 0 0 #N/A #N/A 0 0 12:00 AM 0 #N/A 0 #N/A #N/A 0 0 #N/A #N/A 0 0 12:00 AM 0 #N/A 0 #N/A #N/A 0 0 #N/A #N/A 0 0
Dave
MackTheTeachComment -
My under for Wednesday nights game is 50.5 not 52.... do you still like it at that?Comment -
Redrum,
I appreciate your input. I saw that earlier too. I did a double take and yes I got the line on Monday at 52. Most of the lines I have noticed move the direction I bet. I like to lock stuff in early but then weather and injuries play a part in the line adjustment. I'll adjust and let you know.
Dave
MackTheTeachComment -
Redrum...
Still likes it at 50.5.
Dave
MackTheTeachComment -
Nice to be 2-0 on 5 Star Bets to start the weekend. I bet every bet this weekend just 3% of bank roll for 3 star bets and 5% for tighten bets.
Week 7 Loose 9-9
Week 8 Loose 13-11
Those two weeks are starting to confirm that the numbers are normalizing. I guess we will wait and see what happens.
Dave
MackTheTeachComment -
.5 away from being 4-0... come on Boise...
Btw... sometimes I use my numbers to place 2nd half bets especially in college basketball. But last night at the North Texas half time... I doubled down on them. I got NT -7.5 and they won by almost 30.
I got rear ended yesterday and I am having my first colonoscopy on Monday. Who know I could get rear ended twice within 72 hours. Big weekend.
Dave
MackTheTeach
Enjoy
Comment -
Ha, the good news is you'll drop about 8lbs doing the jello - broth cleanseOriginally posted by usma1992Comment -
Well... I think I have finalized my approach ...
NCAAF
Tight System
7-5
Loose System
5-13
NFL
2-2
I bet the tigher system higher but I was hoping the loose system would normalize. I have decided to tighten both systems up further. I reran the algorithms with a tighter approach on both and it looked solid. I would still have lost week 5 badly but not as bad.
So my four small modifications. I didn't adjust any of the projected point totals. I am just trying to identify which approach makes the most sense. The games stay the same.
1. Stay with the tight system from week 4-6. There is no reason to jump into cold water without enough data. Loosen it when I feel it has enough but not before week 6. I can even try betting week 3 and week 2 if I so choose but only the tight system.
2. Changed my threshold to 70% from 60%. I was trying to include as many games as possible at the 60% range and figured the diversification of bets would offset any major anomalies. I have concluded after experience week 5 and even this past week, I can't do it.
3. I increased the point threshold that each team begins with. I can't go into more detail than that but I noticed I was producing significantly more unders than overs which means I was definitely leaning one direction.
4. Open it up and trust both systems not that they are tight around week 7. The numbers look very solid.
So, I got 4 weeks left. This season has helped me tremendously because not I am finalizing my betting approach to my own system. Btw, many tease my bets because in parlays and are successful.
Dave
MackTheTeachComment -
NCAAF Week 10
5* Means 5 Star --- 3* Means 3 Star but in truth I tightened them up so much they are both about the same now.
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:00 PM UTEP 19 Kennesaw St 25 44 -9.5 51 8:00 PM J Madison 42 Texas St 26 68 6 58.5 7:30 PM Jacksonville St 32 Middle Tenn 26 58 6 54.5 8:00 PM Florida Intl 29 Missouri St 30 59 -3.5 51.5 7:30 PM Marshall 37 Coastal Car 26 63 4 54.5 7:30 PM Tulane 32 UTSA 24 56 3.5 55.5 7:00 PM Memphis 40 Rice 25 65 14 49.5 7:30 PM North Carolina 20 Syracuse 30 50 -2 46 8:00 PM Sam Houston 10 Louisiana Tech 40 50 -17 50 12:00 PM Duke 27 Clemson 31 58 -3 55.5 12:00 PM Penn St 6 Ohio St 26 32 -20.5 43.5 Under 5* 12:00 PM Buffalo 24 Bowling Green 18 42 -1.5 43.5 12:00 PM Army 38 Air Force 32 70 0 49.5 12:00 PM Vanderbilt 19 Texas 24 43 -2.5 46 Under 3* 12:00 PM Rutgers 29 Illinois 34 63 -13 63.5 12:00 PM Arizona St 30 Iowa St 27 57 -4.5 50.5 12:00 PM UAB 26 UConn 43 69 -11.5 64 12:00 PM UCF 37 Baylor 32 69 -4.5 60 12:00 PM Miami 31 SMU 16 47 10.5 50.5 12:00 PM West Virginia 15 Houston 38 53 -14.5 50 12:00 PM Navy 38 N Texas 44 82 -6.5 64.5 2:00 PM E Carolina 40 Temple 21 61 4.5 57.5 Away Minus 3* 3:00 PM Louisville 36 Virginia Tech 17 53 10.5 54 3:00 PM New Mexico 29 UNLV 30 59 -5 62 3:30 PM Louisiana 20 S Alabama 33 53 -4 54.5 3:30 PM Notre Dame 49 Boston College 13 62 28.5 58 3:30 PM Indiana 40 Maryland 11 51 21.5 51.5 3:30 PM Michigan St 16 Minnesota 21 37 -4.5 44 3:30 PM Fresno St 13 Boise St 39 52 -17.5 50.5 3:30 PM Pittsburgh 41 Stanford 11 52 14 52 3:30 PM Texas Tech 41 Kansas St 11 52 7 52.5 3:30 PM Old Dominion 39 UL Monroe 12 51 14.5 54 3:30 PM Delaware 31 Liberty 23 54 -3 51 3:30 PM New Mexico St 22 W Kentucky 33 55 -8.5 54.5 3:30 PM Georgia 36 Florida 15 51 7.5 50 3:45 PM Virginia 34 California 21 55 4.5 54 4:00 PM C Michigan 25 W Michigan 23 48 -6.5 42 4:00 PM Mississippi St 37 Arkansas 33 70 -4.5 67.5 4:00 PM Oklahoma St 13 Kansas 39 52 -24.5 56.5 Under 3* 7:00 PM Purdue 13 Michigan 36 49 -21 51.5 Under 3* 7:00 PM Arizona 35 Colorado 14 49 4.5 52.5 Away Minus 3* 7:00 PM South Carolina 11 Mississippi 40 51 -13.5 55 7:00 PM Wyoming 11 San Diego St 21 32 -11 42 7:30 PM Oklahoma 31 Tennessee 27 58 -3 56 7:30 PM Wake Forest 21 Florida St 35 56 -8 52 Home Minus 5* 7:30 PM Georgia Tech 38 NC State 23 61 6 57.5 7:30 PM Washington St 28 Oregon St 23 51 3.5 49.5 7:30 PM Kentucky 17 Auburn 29 46 -11 47 7:30 PM USC 34 Nebraska 22 56 6.5 58.5 8:00 PM Arkansas St 28 Troy 29 57 -7.5 54 10:15 PM Cincinnati 15 Utah 39 54 -7 56.5 10:30 PM Hawai'i 38 San Jose St 32 70 -2.5 56.5 Away Plus 5* Comment -
NFL Week 9 Very Tight SystemNFL 2025Week9 WAIT WEEK 4 MACKTHETEACH 10 Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET Actual Away Actual Home 8:15 PM BALTIMORE 23 MIAMI 22 45 7.5 50.5 0 0 1:00 PM CHICAGO 29 CINCINNATI 21 50 2 52 0 0 1:00 PM SANFRANCISCO 25 NYGIANTS 19 44 2.5 49 Away Minus 5* 0 0 1:00 PM ATLANTA 17 NEWENGLAND 24 41 -5.5 45 0 0 1:00 PM INDIANAPOLIS 30 PITTSBURGH 19 49 3 49.5 Away Minus 0 0 1:00 PM CAROLINA 17 GREENBAY 27 44 -13 45 0 0 1:00 PM MINNESOTA 17 DETROIT 28 45 -9 47.5 0 0 1:00 PM DENVER 20 HOUSTON 19 39 -1.5 40 0 0 1:00 PM LACHARGERS 30 TENNESSEE 11 41 10 44 0 0 4:05 PM JACKSONVILLE 25 LASVEGAS 12 37 3 45.5 0 0 4:05 PM NEWORLEANS 13 LARAMS 28 41 -13.5 44.5 0 0 4:25 PM KANSASCITY 26 BUFFALO 23 49 1.5 52.5 0 0 8:20 PM SEATTLE 23 WASHINGTON 17 40 3.5 46 0 0 8:15 PM ARIZONA 26 DALLAS 30 56 -2.5 54 0 0 12:00 AM 0 #N/A 0 #N/A #N/A 0 0 #N/A #N/A 0 0 12:00 AM 0 #N/A 0 #N/A #N/A 0 0 #N/A #N/A 0 0 Comment -
Doubled down on my picks today...
Actually, took out a small loan. I know it sounds bad, but I owed the IRS a little coin. I paid them first. Regardless, like moneyball... when Brad Pitt asks Johan Hill... do you believe in it or not?
I believe... I am also searching for the right round robin play. Since 3*and 5* star bets are now accuracy about the same after the recent tightening. I bet them all 4% and said screw it.
I also just bet on a stock that I have been tracking for 10 years too. I don't give u easy.
Didn't bet NFL yet.
Dave
MackTheTeach
P.S. GO ARMYComment
