150 Day Trial 2025 Sept 1st through March 1st 2026... diary

[usma1992]

So final results for the week. I heard the books won big this week. So I tossed out the USC game because it was against Missouri St. not Missouri. I didn't catch it because MIssouri State is a new addition to FBS.

I should have tossed the over in the UCF game because of a tropical storm but I didn't catch it in time. I'm keeping that game... that is my fault.

Anyway, record is 15-12, 55.56%. I heard from a few that my numbers were better than most sites. Any feedback is appreciated.

Dave
MackTheTeach

[usma1992]

Awful slate of games Week 2. Week 2 and 3 are very dangerous. Why? Because the way my system runs it is only looking at one piece of data or zero pieces of data. Most games, I had to shelve because teams either haven't played or played an FCS team.

	NCAAF	2025Week2				STARTS WEEK 4				MACKTHETEACH.COM
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
12:00 PM	Virginia	38	NC State	18		56	-3	56		Away Plus
12:00 PM	San Jose St	5	Texas	26		31	-37	52.5			Under
12:00 PM	Kennesaw St	10	Indiana	37		47	-35.5	52.5
12:45 PM	Utah St	8	Texas A&M	24		32	-31.5	54			Under
3:30 PM	Mississippi	45	Kentucky	13		58	10	50
3:30 PM	Fresno St	23	Oregon St	13		36	-3	47.5
3:30 PM	Miami OH	5	Rutgers	22		27	-15.5	46.5			Under
3:30 PM	Texas St	37	UTSA	29		66	-4.5	65.5		Away Plus
7:00 PM	North Carolina	17	Charlotte	18		35	12.5	49		Home Plus
7:00 PM	W Kentucky	41	Toledo	25		66	-6.5	58.5
7:30 PM	Ball St	1	Auburn	36		37	-42.5	52			Under
7:30 PM	Akron	3	Nebraska	40		43	-34.5	47			Under
7:30 PM	Georgia So	0	USC	43		43	-28.5	62			Under
8:00 PM	UCLA	2	UNLV	29		31	2.5	53.5			Under
11:59 PM	Sam Houston	20	Hawai'i	32		52	-6.5	47.5

Dave
MackTheTeach

[usma1992]

NFL Picks Week 1... I believe I posted them already but since its been a while they may have gotten lost in the shuffle. Again, I don't bet until Week 4.

GL
Dave
MackTheTeach

	NFL	2025Week1				O/U& SPREADS				No Bets Until Week 4		10
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET	Actual Away	Actual Home
8:20 PM	DALLAS	21	PHILADELPHIA	27		48	-7	46				0	0
8:00 PM	KANSASCITY	22	LACHARGERS	20		42	3	45			Under	0	0
1:00 PM	PITTSBURGH	21	NYJETS	20		41	3	38.5				0	0
1:00 PM	MIAMI	21	INDIANAPOLIS	21		42	0	47			Under	0	0
1:00 PM	CAROLINA	19	JACKSONVILLE	19		38	-2.5	45.5		Away Plus		0	0
1:00 PM	NYGIANTS	17	WASHINGTON	28		45	-6	46		Home Minus		0	0
1:00 PM	CINCINNATI	28	CLEVELAND	18		46	5.5	45				0	0
1:00 PM	LASVEGAS	19	NEWENGLAND	17		36	-3	42				0	0
1:00 PM	ARIZONA	24	NEWORLEANS	19		43	6	42.5				0	0
1:00 PM	TAMPABAY	27	ATLANTA	23		50	1	48.5		Away Minus		0	0
4:05 PM	TENNESSEE	17	DENVER	24		41	-7.5	41.5				0	0
4:05 PM	SANFRANCISCO	23	SEATTLE	21		44	2.5	45			Under	0	0
4:25 PM	DETROIT	31	GREENBAY	23		54	-1.5	49.5		Away Plus		0	0
4:25 PM	HOUSTON	21	LARAMS	21		42	-2.5	44			Under	0	0
8:20 PM	BALTIMORE	26	BUFFALO	26		52	-1	52.5				0	0
8:15 PM	MINNESOTA	22	CHICAGO	18		40	2	43			Under	0	0

[usma1992]

Comparing my numbers to ESPN analysts

KC Game Score Prediction
ESPN ----- ME
26-23---- 22-20

TAMPA
27-23 ----27-23 EXACT

CINCY
27-20 ----28-18

INDY
23-22 ----21-21

PAT
25-19 ----19-17(VEGAS)

ZONA
24-19 ----24-19(EXACT)

STEELERS
20-18 ----21-20

COMMANDERS
26-20 ----28-17

JACKSONVILLE
24-21 ----19-19

DENVER
25-18 ----24-17

SEATTLE
23-22 ----23-21(SF)

DETROIT
26-23 ----31-23

HOUSTON
23-21 ----21-21

BALT
28-27 ----26-26

MINN
22-22 ----22-18

My numbers are pretty close to ESPN.

DAVE
MACKTHETEACH

[usma1992]

Anybody out there? Let me know if you are.

I can't understate the significance of my projected numbers being in line with ESPN. What it means is that I no longer have to concentrate on the numbers piece and I can solely focus on the attributes of the game including matchups and types of games. I can do exactly what I have been doing and concentrate on building an algorithm around those projected numbers.

Dave
MackTheTeach

[daneault23]

Anybody out there? Let me know if you are.

I can't understate the significance of my projected numbers being in line with ESPN. What it means is that I no longer have to concentrate on the numbers piece and I can solely focus on the attributes of the game including matchups and types of games. I can do exactly what I have been doing and concentrate on building an algorithm around those projected numbers.

Dave
MackTheTeach

I think we're still here. Maybe since you're not betting for a few more weeks, guys haven't been watching as closely. Looking forward to Week 4 in NCAAF.

[usma1992]

So I ran the system using last season data for the teams that didn't have an FBS game under their belt. System went 17-14... not bad still 54% plus. With only the teams that had a game it went 4-6 but that is because the stats haven't normalized yet. I am beginning to wonder if week 5 isn't more appropriate because their are too many bs games early on.

I will begin week 4 and take the hit of any bad games. Last year week 4 killed me in NFL and then I made a huge comeback..

Can't wait.

Dave
MackTheTeach

[usma1992]

Very Happy with NFL. 5-3 so far. And the two games I had different from ESPN. I won. Vegas and San Fran.

Dave
MackTheTeach

[usma1992]

NCAAF Week 3... It is almost Go Time!!!!

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	NC State	19	Wake Forest	25		44	7	54		Home Plus	Under
7:30 PM	Colorado	14	Houston	24		38	-4.5	43.5
9:00 PM	Kansas St	5	Arizona	18		23	-1.5	54.5			Under
10:00 PM	New Mexico	29	UCLA	28		57	-15.5	53			Over
12:00 PM	Memphis	21	Troy	13		34	5	50			Under
12:00 PM	Oklahoma	29	Temple	17		46	24.5	51.5		Home Plus
12:00 PM	Oregon	38	Northwestern	1		39	27.5	51
12:00 PM	Buffalo	18	Kent St	8		26	21.5	49.5		Home Plus	Under
12:00 PM	C Michigan	17	Michigan	29		46	-27.5	42.5
12:00 PM	Clemson	9	Georgia Tech	19		28	4	52.5		Home Plus
12:00 PM	Wisconsin	13	Alabama	29		42	-21	46.5
12:00 PM	Georgia	42	Tennessee	22		64	4.5	50		Away Minus
12:45 PM	S Alabama	11	Auburn	42		53	-25.5	54
3:00 PM	UConn	40	Delaware	20		60	10	50.5		Away Minus
3:30 PM	Pittsburgh	28	West Virginia	0		28	4.5	57.5		Away Minus
3:30 PM	Washington St	35	N Texas	17		52	-6	58
3:30 PM	Oregon St	12	Texas Tech	55		67	-23	61
3:30 PM	USC	28	Purdue	8		36	21.5	59			Under
3:30 PM	SMU	45	Missouri St	21		66	27.5	62
4:00 PM	Louisiana	3	Missouri	49		52	-25.5	48			Over
4:00 PM	Iowa St	35	Arkansas St	13		48	21	55
4:15 PM	UTEP	0	Texas	38		38	-41.5	51			Under
4:30 PM	S Florida	11	Miami	24		35	-16	54.5			Under
5:00 PM	Liberty	36	Bowling Green	27		63	6.5	51
5:00 PM	Middle Tenn	19	Nevada	15		34	-9	46.5		Away Plus	Under
6:00 PM	Florida Atlantic	36	Florida Intl	26		62	-1.5	57
7:00 PM	App State	53	Southern Miss	13		66	-1	53		Away Plus
7:00 PM	Ohio	13	Ohio St	7		20	-32.5	53
7:00 PM	Old Dominion	15	Virginia Tech	23		38	-7.5	50
7:00 PM	W Michigan	6	Illinois	41		47	-28	51			Under
7:00 PM	Jacksonville St	34	Georgia So	23		57	-3.5	57
7:00 PM	Arkansas	25	Mississippi	38		63	-8	63
7:30 PM	E Michigan	18	Kentucky	39		57	-24	46.5
7:30 PM	Florida	6	LSU	29		35	-9.5	49.5			Under
7:30 PM	Texas A&M	31	Notre Dame	12		43	-6	49
7:30 PM	E Carolina	42	Coastal Car	17		59	6.5	55		Away Minus
7:30 PM	New Mexico St	23	Louisiana Tech	4		27	-9.5	43.5
7:30 PM	UMass	2	Iowa	30		32	-33.5	45
7:45 PM	Vanderbilt	19	South Carolina	6		25	-5.5	48
8:00 PM	Navy	29	Tulsa	26		55	14	54		Home Plus
8:00 PM	Duke	18	Tulane	39		57	-3	52.5		Home Plus	Over
8:00 PM	Utah	32	Wyoming	12		44	22	48		Home Plus
8:30 PM	Akron	14	UAB	35		49	-11.5	52.5			Under
10:30 PM	Texas St	27	Arizona St	35		62	-14.5	60
10:30 PM	Minnesota	29	California	10		39	2.5	44		Away Minus	Under
10:30 PM	Boston College	35	Stanford	15		50	11	44

[usma1992]

Week 3 is a very dangerous week for my model. Often it is predicting games based on a singular games worth of data. Be extremely cautious. I don't expect a great outcome.

Dave
MackTheTeach

[usma1992]

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	NC State	19	Wake Forest	25		44	7	54			Under
7:30 PM	Colorado	14	Houston	24		38	-4.5	43.5
9:00 PM	Kansas St	5	Arizona	18		23	-1.5	54.5			Under
10:00 PM	New Mexico	29	UCLA	28		57	-15.5	53			Over
12:00 PM	Memphis	21	Troy	13		34	5	50			Under
12:00 PM	Oklahoma	29	Temple	17		46	24.5	51.5		Home Plus
12:00 PM	Oregon	38	Northwestern	1		39	27.5	51
12:00 PM	Buffalo	18	Kent St	8		26	21.5	49.5			Under
12:00 PM	C Michigan	17	Michigan	29		46	-27.5	42.5
12:00 PM	Clemson	9	Georgia Tech	19		28	4	52.5		Home Plus
12:00 PM	Wisconsin	13	Alabama	29		42	-21	46.5
12:00 PM	Georgia	42	Tennessee	22		64	4.5	50		Away Minus
12:45 PM	S Alabama	11	Auburn	42		53	-25.5	54
3:00 PM	UConn	40	Delaware	20		60	10	50.5		Away Minus
3:30 PM	Pittsburgh	28	West Virginia	0		28	4.5	57.5		Away Minus
3:30 PM	Washington St	35	N Texas	17		52	-6	58
3:30 PM	Oregon St	12	Texas Tech	55		67	-23	61
3:30 PM	USC	28	Purdue	8		36	21.5	59		Home Plus	Under
3:30 PM	SMU	45	Missouri St	21		66	27.5	62
4:00 PM	Louisiana	3	Missouri	49		52	-25.5	48			Over
4:00 PM	Iowa St	35	Arkansas St	13		48	21	55
4:15 PM	UTEP	0	Texas	38		38	-41.5	51			Under
4:30 PM	S Florida	11	Miami	24		35	-16	54.5			Under
5:00 PM	Liberty	36	Bowling Green	27		63	6.5	51
5:00 PM	Middle Tenn	19	Nevada	15		34	-9	46.5		Away Plus	Under
6:00 PM	Florida Atlantic	36	Florida Intl	26		62	-1.5	57
7:00 PM	App State	53	Southern Miss	13		66	-1	53		Away Plus
7:00 PM	Ohio	13	Ohio St	7		20	-32.5	53
7:00 PM	Old Dominion	15	Virginia Tech	23		38	-7.5	50
7:00 PM	W Michigan	6	Illinois	41		47	-28	51			Under
7:00 PM	Jacksonville St	34	Georgia So	23		57	-3.5	57
7:00 PM	Arkansas	25	Mississippi	38		63	-8	63
7:30 PM	E Michigan	18	Kentucky	39		57	-24	46.5
7:30 PM	Florida	6	LSU	29		35	-9.5	49.5			Under
7:30 PM	Texas A&M	31	Notre Dame	12		43	-6	49
7:30 PM	E Carolina	42	Coastal Car	17		59	6.5	55		Away Minus
7:30 PM	New Mexico St	23	Louisiana Tech	4		27	-9.5	43.5
7:30 PM	UMass	2	Iowa	30		32	-33.5	45
7:45 PM	Vanderbilt	19	South Carolina	6		25	-5.5	48
8:00 PM	Navy	29	Tulsa	26		55	14	54
8:00 PM	Duke	18	Tulane	39		57	-3	52.5			Over
8:00 PM	Utah	32	Wyoming	12		44	22	48
8:30 PM	Akron	14	UAB	35		49	-11.5	52.5			Under
10:30 PM	Texas St	27	Arizona St	35		62	-14.5	60
10:30 PM	Minnesota	29	California	10		39	2.5	44		Away Minus
10:30 PM	Boston College	35	Stanford	15		50	11	44

Been Making Minor Adjustments, getting ready to launch Week 4.

Dave
MackTheTeach

[usma1992]

NFL Week 2... Ended 5-4...

	NFL	2025Week2				O/U& SPREADS				No Bets Until Week 4		10
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET	Actual Away	Actual Home
8:15 PM	WASHINGTON	20	GREENBAY	17		37	-3.5	48				0	0
1:00 PM	NEWENGLAND	21	MIAMI	14		35	-1.5	44			Under	0	0
1:00 PM	JACKSONVILLE	22	CINCINNATI	11		33	-3.5	49.5				0	0
1:00 PM	CLEVELAND	23	BALTIMORE	23		46	-12.5	45				0	0
1:00 PM	NYGIANTS	16	DALLAS	21		37	-6	44.5				0	0
1:00 PM	LARAMS	14	TENNESSEE	8		22	5.5	42			Under	0	0
1:00 PM	BUFFALO	34	NYJETS	29		63	6.5	45.5				0	0
1:00 PM	CHICAGO	22	DETROIT	16		38	-5.5	47.5			Under	0	0
1:00 PM	SEATTLE	14	PITTSBURGH	25		39	-2.5	40		Home Minus		0	0
1:00 PM	SANFRANCISCO	21	NEWORLEANS	18		39	4.5	41			Under	0	0
4:05 PM	CAROLINA	15	ARIZONA	21		36	-6.5	45				0	0
4:05 PM	DENVER	22	INDIANAPOLIS	26		48	2	42				0	0
4:25 PM	PHILADELPHIA	21	KANSASCITY	22		43	0	47			Under	0	0
8:20 PM	ATLANTA	23	MINNESOTA	18		41	-5	45.5				0	0
7:00 PM	TAMPABAY	18	HOUSTON	9		27	-3	42				0	0
10:00 PM	LACHARGERS	27	LASVEGAS	21		48	3.5	47.5				0	0

Waiting until Week 4

Dave
MackTheTeach

[usma1992]

I updated the algorithms ever so slightly to get ready for Week 4.

NCAAF
Week 1 Results with updated algorithms 14-11 +3 Units 56.00%.
Week 2 Results with updated algorithms 18-15 +3 Units 54.55%

Week 1, I had to use statistics from last year.
Week 2, on almost half of the teams I had to use last years stats because the teams hadn't played or only played FCS teams.

I think Week 3 will be a disaster. It will take at least until Week 4 to normalize a little.

NFL
Week 1 5-4

Dave
MackTheTeach

[usma1992]

Looking forward to the games this weekend. NC State should have gone under. Kickoff return and 40 yard pick six and the barely hit the over.

This is the last week, I am not betting on college. I still need to wait two weeks for NFL.

Been working extremely hard on college basketball. I have a nice iteration already complete with upgrades. I have two months to improve it further.

Dave
MackTheTeach