150 Day Trial 2025 Sept 1st through March 1st 2026... diary

usma1992 · 09-02-25, 04:37 PM

So final results for the week. I heard the books won big this week. So I tossed out the USC game because it was against Missouri St. not Missouri. I didn't catch it because MIssouri State is a new addition to FBS.

I should have tossed the over in the UCF game because of a tropical storm but I didn't catch it in time. I'm keeping that game... that is my fault.

Anyway, record is 15-12, 55.56%. I heard from a few that my numbers were better than most sites. Any feedback is appreciated.

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-02-25, 05:17 PM

Awful slate of games Week 2. Week 2 and 3 are very dangerous. Why? Because the way my system runs it is only looking at one piece of data or zero pieces of data. Most games, I had to shelve because teams either haven't played or played an FCS team.

	NCAAF	2025Week2			STARTS WEEK 4			MACKTHETEACH.COM
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
12:00 PM	Virginia	38	NC State	18	56	-3	56	Away Plus
12:00 PM	San Jose St	5	Texas	26	31	-37	52.5		Under
12:00 PM	Kennesaw St	10	Indiana	37	47	-35.5	52.5
12:45 PM	Utah St	8	Texas A&M	24	32	-31.5	54		Under
3:30 PM	Mississippi	45	Kentucky	13	58	10	50
3:30 PM	Fresno St	23	Oregon St	13	36	-3	47.5
3:30 PM	Miami OH	5	Rutgers	22	27	-15.5	46.5		Under
3:30 PM	Texas St	37	UTSA	29	66	-4.5	65.5	Away Plus
7:00 PM	North Carolina	17	Charlotte	18	35	12.5	49	Home Plus
7:00 PM	W Kentucky	41	Toledo	25	66	-6.5	58.5
7:30 PM	Ball St	1	Auburn	36	37	-42.5	52		Under
7:30 PM	Akron	3	Nebraska	40	43	-34.5	47		Under
7:30 PM	Georgia So	0	USC	43	43	-28.5	62		Under
8:00 PM	UCLA	2	UNLV	29	31	2.5	53.5		Under
11:59 PM	Sam Houston	20	Hawai'i	32	52	-6.5	47.5

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-03-25, 06:15 PM

NFL Picks Week 1... I believe I posted them already but since its been a while they may have gotten lost in the shuffle. Again, I don't bet until Week 4.

GL
Dave
MackTheTeach

	NFL	2025Week1			O/U& SPREADS			No Bets Until Week 4		10
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET	Actual Away	Actual Home
8:20 PM	DALLAS	21	PHILADELPHIA	27	48	-7	46			0	0
8:00 PM	KANSASCITY	22	LACHARGERS	20	42	3	45		Under	0	0
1:00 PM	PITTSBURGH	21	NYJETS	20	41	3	38.5			0	0
1:00 PM	MIAMI	21	INDIANAPOLIS	21	42	0	47		Under	0	0
1:00 PM	CAROLINA	19	JACKSONVILLE	19	38	-2.5	45.5	Away Plus		0	0
1:00 PM	NYGIANTS	17	WASHINGTON	28	45	-6	46	Home Minus		0	0
1:00 PM	CINCINNATI	28	CLEVELAND	18	46	5.5	45			0	0
1:00 PM	LASVEGAS	19	NEWENGLAND	17	36	-3	42			0	0
1:00 PM	ARIZONA	24	NEWORLEANS	19	43	6	42.5			0	0
1:00 PM	TAMPABAY	27	ATLANTA	23	50	1	48.5	Away Minus		0	0
4:05 PM	TENNESSEE	17	DENVER	24	41	-7.5	41.5			0	0
4:05 PM	SANFRANCISCO	23	SEATTLE	21	44	2.5	45		Under	0	0
4:25 PM	DETROIT	31	GREENBAY	23	54	-1.5	49.5	Away Plus		0	0
4:25 PM	HOUSTON	21	LARAMS	21	42	-2.5	44		Under	0	0
8:20 PM	BALTIMORE	26	BUFFALO	26	52	-1	52.5			0	0
8:15 PM	MINNESOTA	22	CHICAGO	18	40	2	43		Under	0	0

usma1992 · 09-05-25, 08:38 AM

Comparing my numbers to ESPN analysts

KC Game Score Prediction
ESPN ----- ME
26-23---- 22-20

TAMPA
27-23 ----27-23 EXACT

CINCY
27-20 ----28-18

INDY
23-22 ----21-21

PAT
25-19 ----19-17(VEGAS)

ZONA
24-19 ----24-19(EXACT)

STEELERS
20-18 ----21-20

COMMANDERS
26-20 ----28-17

JACKSONVILLE
24-21 ----19-19

DENVER
25-18 ----24-17

SEATTLE
23-22 ----23-21(SF)

DETROIT
26-23 ----31-23

HOUSTON
23-21 ----21-21

BALT
28-27 ----26-26

MINN
22-22 ----22-18

My numbers are pretty close to ESPN.

DAVE
MACKTHETEACH

usma1992 · 09-05-25, 02:28 PM

Anybody out there? Let me know if you are.

I can't understate the significance of my projected numbers being in line with ESPN. What it means is that I no longer have to concentrate on the numbers piece and I can solely focus on the attributes of the game including matchups and types of games. I can do exactly what I have been doing and concentrate on building an algorithm around those projected numbers.

Dave
MackTheTeach

daneault23 · 09-06-25, 08:05 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

Anybody out there? Let me know if you are.

I can't understate the significance of my projected numbers being in line with ESPN. What it means is that I no longer have to concentrate on the numbers piece and I can solely focus on the attributes of the game including matchups and types of games. I can do exactly what I have been doing and concentrate on building an algorithm around those projected numbers.

Dave
MackTheTeach

I think we're still here. Maybe since you're not betting for a few more weeks, guys haven't been watching as closely. Looking forward to Week 4 in NCAAF.

usma1992 · 09-07-25, 07:16 AM

So I ran the system using last season data for the teams that didn't have an FBS game under their belt. System went 17-14... not bad still 54% plus. With only the teams that had a game it went 4-6 but that is because the stats haven't normalized yet. I am beginning to wonder if week 5 isn't more appropriate because their are too many bs games early on.

I will begin week 4 and take the hit of any bad games. Last year week 4 killed me in NFL and then I made a huge comeback..

Can't wait.

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-08-25, 05:02 AM

Very Happy with NFL. 5-3 so far. And the two games I had different from ESPN. I won. Vegas and San Fran.

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-08-25, 05:03 AM

NCAAF Week 3... It is almost Go Time!!!!

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	NC State	19	Wake Forest	25	44	7	54	Home Plus	Under
7:30 PM	Colorado	14	Houston	24	38	-4.5	43.5
9:00 PM	Kansas St	5	Arizona	18	23	-1.5	54.5		Under
10:00 PM	New Mexico	29	UCLA	28	57	-15.5	53		Over
12:00 PM	Memphis	21	Troy	13	34	5	50		Under
12:00 PM	Oklahoma	29	Temple	17	46	24.5	51.5	Home Plus
12:00 PM	Oregon	38	Northwestern	1	39	27.5	51
12:00 PM	Buffalo	18	Kent St	8	26	21.5	49.5	Home Plus	Under
12:00 PM	C Michigan	17	Michigan	29	46	-27.5	42.5
12:00 PM	Clemson	9	Georgia Tech	19	28	4	52.5	Home Plus
12:00 PM	Wisconsin	13	Alabama	29	42	-21	46.5
12:00 PM	Georgia	42	Tennessee	22	64	4.5	50	Away Minus
12:45 PM	S Alabama	11	Auburn	42	53	-25.5	54
3:00 PM	UConn	40	Delaware	20	60	10	50.5	Away Minus
3:30 PM	Pittsburgh	28	West Virginia	0	28	4.5	57.5	Away Minus
3:30 PM	Washington St	35	N Texas	17	52	-6	58
3:30 PM	Oregon St	12	Texas Tech	55	67	-23	61
3:30 PM	USC	28	Purdue	8	36	21.5	59		Under
3:30 PM	SMU	45	Missouri St	21	66	27.5	62
4:00 PM	Louisiana	3	Missouri	49	52	-25.5	48		Over
4:00 PM	Iowa St	35	Arkansas St	13	48	21	55
4:15 PM	UTEP	0	Texas	38	38	-41.5	51		Under
4:30 PM	S Florida	11	Miami	24	35	-16	54.5		Under
5:00 PM	Liberty	36	Bowling Green	27	63	6.5	51
5:00 PM	Middle Tenn	19	Nevada	15	34	-9	46.5	Away Plus	Under
6:00 PM	Florida Atlantic	36	Florida Intl	26	62	-1.5	57
7:00 PM	App State	53	Southern Miss	13	66	-1	53	Away Plus
7:00 PM	Ohio	13	Ohio St	7	20	-32.5	53
7:00 PM	Old Dominion	15	Virginia Tech	23	38	-7.5	50
7:00 PM	W Michigan	6	Illinois	41	47	-28	51		Under
7:00 PM	Jacksonville St	34	Georgia So	23	57	-3.5	57
7:00 PM	Arkansas	25	Mississippi	38	63	-8	63
7:30 PM	E Michigan	18	Kentucky	39	57	-24	46.5
7:30 PM	Florida	6	LSU	29	35	-9.5	49.5		Under
7:30 PM	Texas A&M	31	Notre Dame	12	43	-6	49
7:30 PM	E Carolina	42	Coastal Car	17	59	6.5	55	Away Minus
7:30 PM	New Mexico St	23	Louisiana Tech	4	27	-9.5	43.5
7:30 PM	UMass	2	Iowa	30	32	-33.5	45
7:45 PM	Vanderbilt	19	South Carolina	6	25	-5.5	48
8:00 PM	Navy	29	Tulsa	26	55	14	54	Home Plus
8:00 PM	Duke	18	Tulane	39	57	-3	52.5	Home Plus	Over
8:00 PM	Utah	32	Wyoming	12	44	22	48	Home Plus
8:30 PM	Akron	14	UAB	35	49	-11.5	52.5		Under
10:30 PM	Texas St	27	Arizona St	35	62	-14.5	60
10:30 PM	Minnesota	29	California	10	39	2.5	44	Away Minus	Under
10:30 PM	Boston College	35	Stanford	15	50	11	44

usma1992 · 09-08-25, 08:11 AM

Week 3 is a very dangerous week for my model. Often it is predicting games based on a singular games worth of data. Be extremely cautious. I don't expect a great outcome.

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-09-25, 08:41 AM

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	NC State	19	Wake Forest	25	44	7	54		Under
7:30 PM	Colorado	14	Houston	24	38	-4.5	43.5
9:00 PM	Kansas St	5	Arizona	18	23	-1.5	54.5		Under
10:00 PM	New Mexico	29	UCLA	28	57	-15.5	53		Over
12:00 PM	Memphis	21	Troy	13	34	5	50		Under
12:00 PM	Oklahoma	29	Temple	17	46	24.5	51.5	Home Plus
12:00 PM	Oregon	38	Northwestern	1	39	27.5	51
12:00 PM	Buffalo	18	Kent St	8	26	21.5	49.5		Under
12:00 PM	C Michigan	17	Michigan	29	46	-27.5	42.5
12:00 PM	Clemson	9	Georgia Tech	19	28	4	52.5	Home Plus
12:00 PM	Wisconsin	13	Alabama	29	42	-21	46.5
12:00 PM	Georgia	42	Tennessee	22	64	4.5	50	Away Minus
12:45 PM	S Alabama	11	Auburn	42	53	-25.5	54
3:00 PM	UConn	40	Delaware	20	60	10	50.5	Away Minus
3:30 PM	Pittsburgh	28	West Virginia	0	28	4.5	57.5	Away Minus
3:30 PM	Washington St	35	N Texas	17	52	-6	58
3:30 PM	Oregon St	12	Texas Tech	55	67	-23	61
3:30 PM	USC	28	Purdue	8	36	21.5	59	Home Plus	Under
3:30 PM	SMU	45	Missouri St	21	66	27.5	62
4:00 PM	Louisiana	3	Missouri	49	52	-25.5	48		Over
4:00 PM	Iowa St	35	Arkansas St	13	48	21	55
4:15 PM	UTEP	0	Texas	38	38	-41.5	51		Under
4:30 PM	S Florida	11	Miami	24	35	-16	54.5		Under
5:00 PM	Liberty	36	Bowling Green	27	63	6.5	51
5:00 PM	Middle Tenn	19	Nevada	15	34	-9	46.5	Away Plus	Under
6:00 PM	Florida Atlantic	36	Florida Intl	26	62	-1.5	57
7:00 PM	App State	53	Southern Miss	13	66	-1	53	Away Plus
7:00 PM	Ohio	13	Ohio St	7	20	-32.5	53
7:00 PM	Old Dominion	15	Virginia Tech	23	38	-7.5	50
7:00 PM	W Michigan	6	Illinois	41	47	-28	51		Under
7:00 PM	Jacksonville St	34	Georgia So	23	57	-3.5	57
7:00 PM	Arkansas	25	Mississippi	38	63	-8	63
7:30 PM	E Michigan	18	Kentucky	39	57	-24	46.5
7:30 PM	Florida	6	LSU	29	35	-9.5	49.5		Under
7:30 PM	Texas A&M	31	Notre Dame	12	43	-6	49
7:30 PM	E Carolina	42	Coastal Car	17	59	6.5	55	Away Minus
7:30 PM	New Mexico St	23	Louisiana Tech	4	27	-9.5	43.5
7:30 PM	UMass	2	Iowa	30	32	-33.5	45
7:45 PM	Vanderbilt	19	South Carolina	6	25	-5.5	48
8:00 PM	Navy	29	Tulsa	26	55	14	54
8:00 PM	Duke	18	Tulane	39	57	-3	52.5		Over
8:00 PM	Utah	32	Wyoming	12	44	22	48
8:30 PM	Akron	14	UAB	35	49	-11.5	52.5		Under
10:30 PM	Texas St	27	Arizona St	35	62	-14.5	60
10:30 PM	Minnesota	29	California	10	39	2.5	44	Away Minus
10:30 PM	Boston College	35	Stanford	15	50	11	44

Been Making Minor Adjustments, getting ready to launch Week 4.

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-09-25, 08:43 AM

NFL Week 2... Ended 5-4...


	NFL	2025Week2			O/U& SPREADS			No Bets Until Week 4		10
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET	Actual Away	Actual Home
8:15 PM	WASHINGTON	20	GREENBAY	17	37	-3.5	48			0	0
1:00 PM	NEWENGLAND	21	MIAMI	14	35	-1.5	44		Under	0	0
1:00 PM	JACKSONVILLE	22	CINCINNATI	11	33	-3.5	49.5			0	0
1:00 PM	CLEVELAND	23	BALTIMORE	23	46	-12.5	45			0	0
1:00 PM	NYGIANTS	16	DALLAS	21	37	-6	44.5			0	0
1:00 PM	LARAMS	14	TENNESSEE	8	22	5.5	42		Under	0	0
1:00 PM	BUFFALO	34	NYJETS	29	63	6.5	45.5			0	0
1:00 PM	CHICAGO	22	DETROIT	16	38	-5.5	47.5		Under	0	0
1:00 PM	SEATTLE	14	PITTSBURGH	25	39	-2.5	40	Home Minus		0	0
1:00 PM	SANFRANCISCO	21	NEWORLEANS	18	39	4.5	41		Under	0	0
4:05 PM	CAROLINA	15	ARIZONA	21	36	-6.5	45			0	0
4:05 PM	DENVER	22	INDIANAPOLIS	26	48	2	42			0	0
4:25 PM	PHILADELPHIA	21	KANSASCITY	22	43	0	47		Under	0	0
8:20 PM	ATLANTA	23	MINNESOTA	18	41	-5	45.5			0	0
7:00 PM	TAMPABAY	18	HOUSTON	9	27	-3	42			0	0
10:00 PM	LACHARGERS	27	LASVEGAS	21	48	3.5	47.5			0	0

Waiting until Week 4

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-09-25, 10:55 AM

I updated the algorithms ever so slightly to get ready for Week 4.

NCAAF
Week 1 Results with updated algorithms 14-11 +3 Units 56.00%.
Week 2 Results with updated algorithms 18-15 +3 Units 54.55%

Week 1, I had to use statistics from last year.
Week 2, on almost half of the teams I had to use last years stats because the teams hadn't played or only played FCS teams.

I think Week 3 will be a disaster. It will take at least until Week 4 to normalize a little.

NFL
Week 1 5-4

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-12-25, 09:52 PM

Looking forward to the games this weekend. NC State should have gone under. Kickoff return and 40 yard pick six and the barely hit the over.

This is the last week, I am not betting on college. I still need to wait two weeks for NFL.

Been working extremely hard on college basketball. I have a nice iteration already complete with upgrades. I have two months to improve it further.

Dave
MackTheTeach

Swiftie17 · 09-13-25, 09:30 AM

Not betting yet, right?

usma1992 · 09-14-25, 09:09 AM

Went 13-11 yesterday... not bad 54.17%. Haven't had a losing week, so far.

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-14-25, 09:21 AM

Summary

NCAAF
Week 1 ... 14-11 +3
Week 2 ... 18-15 +3
Week 3 ... 13-11 +2

NFL
Week 1... 5-4

Quote from Steve Martin
"Be so good, they can't ignore you"

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-14-25, 11:27 AM

Btw... I thought it was cool that the system picked New Mexico outright.... over UCLA. Last year, I nailed the Northern Illinois vs. Notre Dame game outright.

I had them win by 2... they won by 2..

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-15-25, 08:29 AM

Got crushed in the NFL yesterday... which is fine 1-5 I think. It is actually a good thing. It helps normalize the numbers.

And that is why I don't bet until week 4.

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-15-25, 11:00 AM

NCAAF WEEK 4 ... Time to bet. A bunch of games this weekend. It probably needs another week to normalize... but I am betting.

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	Rice	26	Charlotte	10	36	3.5	42
7:30 PM	Tulsa	38	Oklahoma St	15	53	-13	55.5	Away Plus
8:00 PM	Iowa	25	Rutgers	17	42	2.5	44.5
12:00 PM	N Texas	22	Army	28	50	1.5	52.5		Under
12:00 PM	SMU	18	TCU	46	64	-6.5	62.5
12:00 PM	UNLV	21	Miami OH	4	25	3.5	48.5
12:00 PM	Bowling Green	7	Louisville	18	25	-26	52.5		Under
12:00 PM	Syracuse	29	Clemson	25	54	-17	56	Away Plus	Under
12:00 PM	Maryland	19	Wisconsin	12	31	-7.5	43.5		Under
12:00 PM	Texas Tech	32	Utah	34	66	-4	57.5
12:00 PM	Arkansas	29	Memphis	25	54	7	62.5
12:45 PM	UAB	21	Tennessee	56	77	-37.5	67.5	Away Plus
3:00 PM	Oregon St	3	Oregon	44	47	-35	57.5
3:30 PM	Louisiana	16	E Michigan	31	47	3.5	52.5	Home Plus
3:30 PM	North Carolina	1	UCF	28	29	-6.5	49.5		Under
3:30 PM	Kent St	3	Florida St	43	46	-43.5	55.5		Under
3:30 PM	Toledo	33	W Michigan	3	36	14.5	51.5	Away Minus	Under
3:30 PM	Troy	12	Buffalo	16	28	-6.5	42.5		Under
3:30 PM	Auburn	16	Oklahoma	31	47	-6.5	48.5
3:30 PM	Tulane	24	Mississippi	42	66	-11.5	60.5		Over
3:30 PM	Ball St	8	UConn	52	60	-20.5	52.5
3:30 PM	Michigan	23	Nebraska	34	57	0	45
3:30 PM	Purdue	19	Notre Dame	27	46	-26.5	52.5	Away Plus	Under
3:30 PM	J Madison	28	Liberty	14	42	10	48.5
4:00 PM	NC State	34	Duke	33	67	-2.5	59
4:15 PM	N Illinois	8	Mississippi St	32	40	-21.5	50		Under
4:30 PM	Temple	5	Georgia Tech	37	42	-24	52
6:00 PM	West Virginia	22	Kansas	17	39	-11.5	55		Under
6:00 PM	Arkansas St	36	Kennesaw St	25	61	6.5	54.5		Over
6:00 PM	Delaware	35	Florida Intl	32	67	-4.5	55	Away Plus	Over
7:00 PM	Coastal Car	15	S Alabama	37	52	-15	51		Over
7:00 PM	South Carolina	1	Missouri	41	42	-13.5	46.5		Under
7:00 PM	Nevada	14	W Kentucky	41	55	-10	55
7:00 PM	Boise St	44	Air Force	32	76	9.5	51
7:00 PM	Marshall	24	Middle Tenn	26	50	3	47
7:30 PM	BYU	19	E Carolina	23	42	7	48	Home Plus	Under
7:30 PM	Florida	17	Miami	31	48	-7.5	53		Under
7:30 PM	Illinois	20	Indiana	34	54	-4	51.5		Over
7:30 PM	Arizona St	33	Baylor	37	70	-2.5	59.5
7:30 PM	Stanford	7	Virginia	45	52	-15.5	49		Over
7:30 PM	Southern Miss	18	Louisiana Tech	30	48	-2.5	51.5		Under
7:30 PM	Washington	41	Washington St	12	53	20.5	52.5
7:30 PM	Georgia St	2	Vanderbilt	44	46	-27	54
8:00 PM	Sam Houston	0	Texas	47	47	-41	51
9:00 PM	UL Monroe	1	UTEP	31	32	-5	47		Under
9:30 PM	UTSA	44	Colorado St	21	65	5	58.5	Away Minus
10:15 PM	Wyoming	16	Colorado	21	37	-13	44
10:30 PM	California	30	San Diego St	2	32	11.5	48	Away Minus	Under
11:00 PM	Michigan St	14	USC	38	52	-16	57
11:59 PM	Fresno St	12	Hawai'i	26	38	3.5	46.5		Under

usma1992 · 09-15-25, 11:02 AM

In Color...

	NCAAF	2025WEEK4			STARTS WEEK 4			MACKTHETEACH.COM
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	Rice	26	Charlotte	10	36	3.5	42
7:30 PM	Tulsa	38	Oklahoma St	15	53	-13	55.5	Away Plus
8:00 PM	Iowa	25	Rutgers	17	42	2.5	44.5
12:00 PM	N Texas	22	Army	28	50	1.5	52.5		Under
12:00 PM	SMU	18	TCU	46	64	-6.5	62.5
12:00 PM	UNLV	21	Miami OH	4	25	3.5	48.5
12:00 PM	Bowling Green	7	Louisville	18	25	-26	52.5		Under
12:00 PM	Syracuse	29	Clemson	25	54	-17	56	Away Plus	Under
12:00 PM	Maryland	19	Wisconsin	12	31	-7.5	43.5		Under
12:00 PM	Texas Tech	32	Utah	34	66	-4	57.5
12:00 PM	Arkansas	29	Memphis	25	54	7	62.5
12:45 PM	UAB	21	Tennessee	56	77	-37.5	67.5	Away Plus
3:00 PM	Oregon St	3	Oregon	44	47	-35	57.5
3:30 PM	Louisiana	16	E Michigan	31	47	3.5	52.5	Home Plus
3:30 PM	North Carolina	1	UCF	28	29	-6.5	49.5		Under
3:30 PM	Kent St	3	Florida St	43	46	-43.5	55.5		Under
3:30 PM	Toledo	33	W Michigan	3	36	14.5	51.5	Away Minus	Under
3:30 PM	Troy	12	Buffalo	16	28	-6.5	42.5		Under
3:30 PM	Auburn	16	Oklahoma	31	47	-6.5	48.5
3:30 PM	Tulane	24	Mississippi	42	66	-11.5	60.5		Over
3:30 PM	Ball St	8	UConn	52	60	-20.5	52.5
3:30 PM	Michigan	23	Nebraska	34	57	0	45
3:30 PM	Purdue	19	Notre Dame	27	46	-26.5	52.5	Away Plus	Under
3:30 PM	J Madison	28	Liberty	14	42	10	48.5
4:00 PM	NC State	34	Duke	33	67	-2.5	59
4:15 PM	N Illinois	8	Mississippi St	32	40	-21.5	50		Under
4:30 PM	Temple	5	Georgia Tech	37	42	-24	52
6:00 PM	West Virginia	22	Kansas	17	39	-11.5	55		Under
6:00 PM	Arkansas St	36	Kennesaw St	25	61	6.5	54.5		Over
6:00 PM	Delaware	35	Florida Intl	32	67	-4.5	55	Away Plus	Over
7:00 PM	Coastal Car	15	S Alabama	37	52	-15	51		Over
7:00 PM	South Carolina	1	Missouri	41	42	-13.5	46.5		Under
7:00 PM	Nevada	14	W Kentucky	41	55	-10	55
7:00 PM	Boise St	44	Air Force	32	76	9.5	51
7:00 PM	Marshall	24	Middle Tenn	26	50	3	47
7:30 PM	BYU	19	E Carolina	23	42	7	48	Home Plus	Under
7:30 PM	Florida	17	Miami	31	48	-7.5	53		Under
7:30 PM	Illinois	20	Indiana	34	54	-4	51.5		Over
7:30 PM	Arizona St	33	Baylor	37	70	-2.5	59.5
7:30 PM	Stanford	7	Virginia	45	52	-15.5	49		Over
7:30 PM	Southern Miss	18	Louisiana Tech	30	48	-2.5	51.5		Under
7:30 PM	Washington	41	Washington St	12	53	20.5	52.5
7:30 PM	Georgia St	2	Vanderbilt	44	46	-27	54
8:00 PM	Sam Houston	0	Texas	47	47	-41	51
9:00 PM	UL Monroe	1	UTEP	31	32	-5	47		Under
9:30 PM	UTSA	44	Colorado St	21	65	5	58.5	Away Minus
10:15 PM	Wyoming	16	Colorado	21	37	-13	44
10:30 PM	California	30	San Diego St	2	32	11.5	48	Away Minus	Under
11:00 PM	Michigan St	14	USC	38	52	-16	57
11:59 PM	Fresno St	12	Hawai'i	26	38	3.5	46.5		Under

Dave
MackTheTeach
D

usma1992 · 09-15-25, 02:03 PM

Helluva lot of games(bets)... I suppose this is happening because the numbers haven't normalized yet. Expect Week 5 to be less games and so on. 33 to be exact. Anybody got any opinions?

My colleague hit me up asked for my best games in the afternoon. She bet $100 parlay and won $1600. Two weeks back to back I won someone $1600. Need to start betting my own suggestions. Just don't have the funds quite yet.

I just chipped into MGM and Caesers... I plan to bet until April 1st, see how it goes.

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-16-25, 08:34 AM

One more week on NFL... before I bet...

	NFL	2025Week3			O/U& SPREADS			MACKTHETEACH
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:15 PM	MIAMI	17	BUFFALO	32	49	-11.5	49
1:00 PM	INDIANAPOLIS	31	TENNESSEE	11	42	3.5	43.5
1:00 PM	ATLANTA	22	CAROLINA	19	41	5	43.5		Under
1:00 PM	LASVEGAS	17	WASHINGTON	22	39	-3.5	44
1:00 PM	GREENBAY	21	CLEVELAND	21	42	8	42.5	Home Plus
1:00 PM	CINCINNATI	19	MINNESOTA	15	34	-3	41.5
1:00 PM	LARAMS	22	PHILADELPHIA	18	40	-3.5	44.5		Under
1:00 PM	PITTSBURGH	22	NEWENGLAND	23	45	1	44.5
1:00 PM	NYJETS	16	TAMPABAY	22	38	-7	45
1:00 PM	HOUSTON	14	JACKSONVILLE	27	41	-1	44.5	Home Minus
4:05 PM	DENVER	22	LACHARGERS	22	44	-2.5	45.5		Under
4:05 PM	NEWORLEANS	20	SEATTLE	19	39	-7.5	41.5		Under
4:25 PM	DALLAS	32	CHICAGO	24	56	-1	50	Away Plus
4:25 PM	ARIZONA	19	SANFRANCISCO	23	42	-1.5	43.5
8:20 PM	KANSASCITY	21	NYGIANTS	22	43	6	44.5	Home Plus	Under
8:15 PM	DETROIT	30	BALTIMORE	25	55	-6	51.5

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-16-25, 04:08 PM

Did you know Cleveland has only given up 45 yards rushing per game and they played Cincy and Baltimore?

This is why my stats need to normalize. My model can't work without realistic stats.

Dave
MackTheTeach

Optional · 09-16-25, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

Did you know Cleveland has only given up 45 yards rushing per game and they played Cincy and Baltimore?

This is why my stats need to normalize. My model can't work without realistic stats.

Dave
MackTheTeach

Does this hold up for a bet on Josh Jacobs Un58.5 Rushing when they play Pack this week?

usma1992 · 09-17-25, 05:39 AM

I don't do player props, it is tough enough doing what I am doing. I believe that 33 games indicates, I am a week early. Not enough normalization.

NFL games look rough this week too, but it is only going into week 3. With only two games of data, you have to be careful especially with the parity.

I am considering pushing off NFL start to week 5. Why? Last year, week 4 was a really rough week in NFL, then I recovered week 5. We shall see.

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-18-25, 08:46 AM

Interesting stat discovery that maybe some of you know.

If a QB takes a sack it doesn't affect his passing or rushing yards. It affects the teams passing yards.

How weird is that?

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-19-25, 06:40 AM

Almost nailed the Buffalo score... I had 32-17... 31-21 not far off...

Wasn't that far off the on the College Charlotte game either...

Looking forward to the weekend...

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-19-25, 05:31 PM

Tonight is the beginning of 25-26...

for me. NCAAF is ready to go or at least I hope. The first bet is Tulsa +13 and yes I have placed every bet my system generated.

I waiting until Week 4 for NFL... but I have several questioning why I don't bet Indy based on the projected totals and why Cleveland Green Bay is so close. I just do the math... I don't write the script.

I have 33 college bets that are already placed. I can lose 15 of them and be profitable. I will be placing bets now for the next 6.5 months.

Let's see what I can deliver.

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-21-25, 06:36 AM

All I can say is WOW...

MackTheTeach went 21-13 spreading the risk over Week 4. I hit 61.76% of the games. HUGE first weekend of betting. HUGE!!!!!!! This is unheard of in the sportsbetting community. I know it is only one week but damn.

So not only did I diversify the risk... I deliver over 60%.

Wow... I could believe it as I watched the games. Is their anyone tracking? If so, don't you agree how remarkable this is?

Dave
MackTheTeach

Optional · 09-21-25, 07:48 AM

Originally posted by usma1992

All I can say is WOW...

MackTheTeach went 21-13 spreading the risk over Week 4. I hit 61.76% of the games. HUGE first weekend of betting. HUGE!!!!!!! This is unheard of in the sportsbetting community. I know it is only one week but damn.

So not only did I diversify the risk... I deliver over 60%.

Wow... I could believe it as I watched the games. Is their anyone tracking? If so, don't you agree how remarkable this is?

Dave
MackTheTeach

How can anyone be tracking?

I don't see any of your picks.

usma1992 · 09-21-25, 07:50 AM

Really... it is only 5-8 posts back on this thread....

Post 56 to be exact. I guess 11 posts back.

Dave
MackTheTeach

Optional · 09-21-25, 07:52 AM

Sorry. Thread is confusing with all the I am not betting yet and stuff.

good job.

usma1992 · 09-21-25, 08:01 AM

I bet starting Week 4... on NFL and NCAAF. NFL is a week behind.

Dave
MackTheTeach

redrum448 · 09-21-25, 08:56 AM

I went 16-6 yesterday, 2-0 Thursday took Tulsa and Iowa

Missed the 7pm games and 10:30pm games yesterday....