150 Day Trial 2025 Sept 1st through March 1st 2026... diary

usma1992 · 09-21-25, 11:13 AM

Awesome ... redrum... did you use any of my picks...

Week 3 NFL. Already won my survivor pick... had to take Buffalo. Almost nailed that score too.

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-22-25, 07:00 AM

Solid Weekend...

NCAAF Week 4... I did bet it and I crushed it 21-13 61.76%
NFL Week 3... Need one more weeks worth of data but went 5-4 55.5%

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-22-25, 07:03 AM

NCAAF Week 5 Games

	NCAAF	2025Week5			STARTS WEEK 4			MACKTHETEACH.COM
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	Army	28	E Carolina	37	65	-3.5	52.5	Home Minus
7:00 PM	Florida St	33	Virginia	31	64	7	57.5
9:00 PM	TCU	37	Arizona St	25	62	-2.5	55.5	Away Plus
10:30 PM	Houston	40	Oregon St	9	49	12	48.5	Away Minus
12:00 PM	Bowling Green	17	Ohio	26	43	-10.5	50.5		Under
12:00 PM	Notre Dame	32	Arkansas	38	70	6	65.5
12:00 PM	Louisville	17	Pittsburgh	19	36	3.5	55.5		Under
12:00 PM	Duke	38	Syracuse	44	82	5.5	60	Home Plus
12:00 PM	Georgia Tech	34	Wake Forest	11	45	14.5	53
12:00 PM	Rutgers	20	Minnesota	31	51	-5.5	51
12:00 PM	Cincinnati	13	Kansas	18	31	-6	55.5		Under
12:00 PM	S Alabama	22	N Texas	39	61	-13	64
12:00 PM	UCF	21	Kansas St	3	24	-6	49
12:00 PM	USC	39	Illinois	11	50	6.5	60	Away Minus
12:45 PM	Utah St	7	Vanderbilt	43	50	-22.5	59.5		Under
1:00 PM	E Michigan	38	C Michigan	19	57	-5.5	53	Away Plus
1:30 PM	Georgia So	11	J Madison	42	53	-16.5	54.5
3:00 PM	Arkansas St	32	UL Monroe	21	53	-3	56	Away Plus
3:30 PM	Akron	6	Toledo	40	46	-20.5	49
3:30 PM	Utah	42	West Virginia	14	56	10.5	49.5	Away Minus
3:30 PM	San Diego St	14	N Illinois	7	21	3	42.5
3:30 PM	California	23	Boston College	29	52	-6.5	52
3:30 PM	UConn	36	Buffalo	19	55	3	51	Away Minus
3:30 PM	Indiana	32	Iowa	9	41	7	49	Away Minus
3:30 PM	UCLA	15	Northwestern	20	35	-7	45
3:30 PM	Rice	23	Navy	34	57	-14.5	45.5
3:30 PM	Baylor	55	Oklahoma St	19	74	20	60	Away Minus
3:30 PM	LSU	17	Mississippi	31	48	-2	55.5
3:30 PM	Auburn	24	Texas A&M	31	55	-6.5	52
3:30 PM	Ohio St	16	Washington	18	34	9	52	Home Plus
4:00 PM	Hawai'i	39	Air Force	32	71	-4.5	53.5	Away Plus
4:00 PM	New Mexico St	17	New Mexico	37	54	-14	54.5	Home Minus
4:00 PM	Tulane	31	Tulsa	28	59	12.5	54
4:15 PM	Tennessee	32	Mississippi St	32	64	7.5	62.5	Home Plus
6:00 PM	Liberty	18	Old Dominion	25	43	-16	51.5
6:00 PM	Middle Tenn	19	Kennesaw St	29	48	-7	51		Under
7:00 PM	Memphis	39	Florida Atlantic	28	67	13.5	61
7:00 PM	Virginia Tech	23	NC State	42	65	-10	57.5		Over
7:00 PM	Jacksonville St	26	Southern Miss	35	61	-3.5	57	Home Minus
7:00 PM	Arizona	20	Iowa St	9	29	-6	49
7:00 PM	W Kentucky	41	Missouri St	20	61	5.5	60	Away Minus
7:30 PM	App State	45	Boise St	36	81	-17.5	60.5	Away Plus	Over
7:30 PM	San Jose St	25	Stanford	18	43	-2	49	Away Plus	Under
7:30 PM	UMass	0	Missouri	57	57	-43.5	55.5
7:30 PM	Washington St	25	Colorado St	27	52	-4	50
7:30 PM	Oregon	23	Penn St	23	46	-3	52.5
7:30 PM	Alabama	28	Georgia	36	64	-3	53.5	Home Minus
7:45 PM	Kentucky	24	South Carolina	16	40	-6	47.5		Under
8:00 PM	Marshall	17	Louisiana	18	35	-2.5	47.5		Under
9:00 PM	Louisiana Tech	23	UTEP	22	45	4	48	Home Plus	Under
10:15 PM	BYU	26	Colorado	12	38	6.5	47.5

Dave
MackTheTeach

daneault23 · 09-22-25, 11:31 AM

Nice week in NCAAF to kick off your season. Let's hope it continues.

usma1992 · 09-22-25, 04:52 PM

Daneault23,

I appreciate you tracking me. I know it is only one week worth of betting but these algorithms have been tested over a substantial amount of data. I made one adjustment to the model after Week 4. I eliminated any under bet if a team is favored by more than 32 points. It makes no sense to bet an under when the matchup is that skewed. It eliminated the FSU under... post mordem.

I also adjusted NFL only slightly to include the Indy bet. My colleagues were questioning why the system didn't pick Indianapolis when the projected point total was clearly pointing that direction. I examined all my past data and I could not find a match up any where close to that matchup. I was a unicorn so to speak. So I adjusted my algorithms to include the unicorn with out damaging any data. Again, I know it is after the fact.

What I believe to be the most impressive about this weekend is that I diversified my picks substantially. Who in their right mind bets 34 college football games. The conventional wisdom is pick 5-10 and run with it.

My approach is different. Diversify the bets to protect from downside risk. Normally, this will also cap your upside. Hitting 61%+ over 34 games is insane.

I know it is only a week, but those numbers are crazy good. I also saved a lot of people's butts on that Green Bay ... Cleveland game. People lost big on survivor leagues in my area. My system... had them tied... which they were just before the clock ran out.

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-23-25, 01:59 PM

NFL WEEK 4 PICKS TIME TO BET...

GOOD LUCK... ONLY SIX PICKS AND I WILL ONLY BE PUTTING 3% ON EACH BET...

	NFL	2025Week4			WAIT WEEK 4			MACKTHETEACH		10
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET	Actual Away	Actual Home
8:15 PM	SEATTLE	21	ARIZONA	16	37	0	43.5			0	0
9:30 AM	MINNESOTA	19	PITTSBURGH	15	34	2.5	41			0	0
1:00 PM	PHILADELPHIA	21	TAMPABAY	23	44	3.5	43.5			0	0
1:00 PM	NEWORLEANS	18	BUFFALO	30	48	-16.5	47.5			0	0
1:00 PM	CAROLINA	21	NEWENGLAND	21	42	-5.5	43.5			0	0
1:00 PM	WASHINGTON	24	ATLANTA	19	43	2.5	45.5			0	0
1:00 PM	CLEVELAND	19	DETROIT	28	47	-9	45			0	0
1:00 PM	TENNESSEE	16	HOUSTON	16	32	-7	39.5	Away Plus	Under	0	0
1:00 PM	LACHARGERS	25	NYGIANTS	18	43	6	44.5			0	0
4:05 PM	JACKSONVILLE	23	SANFRANCISCO	23	46	-3.5	47		Under	0	0
4:05 PM	INDIANAPOLIS	29	LARAMS	23	52	-4	49.5			0	0
4:25 PM	CHICAGO	24	LASVEGAS	20	44	0	48		Under	0	0
4:25 PM	BALTIMORE	26	KANSASCITY	21	47	2.5	48.5	Away Minus		0	0
8:20 PM	GREENBAY	16	DALLAS	26	42	7	47	Home Plus		0	0
7:15 PM	NYJETS	18	MIAMI	17	35	-3	45			0	0
8:15 PM	CINCINNATI	16	DENVER	22	38	-7	44			0	0

DAVE
MACKTHETEACH

usma1992 · 09-24-25, 04:31 AM

Optional... just remembered that you asked about Josh Jacobs under in the GB... Cleveland game. Apparently, the answer was yes. He only had 30 yards.

Dave
MackTheTeach

ProSportsEdge · 09-24-25, 06:36 AM

Originally posted by usma1992

Yesterday was solid... went to a local establishment to watch the Virginia Tech game. Ran into a parent of a previous student I taught. I convinced him out of the over bet on the Tech game. He was about to lay $500 on it. He then parlayed South Carolina minus the points and the under as I instructed. I was perfect yesterday.

I don't even know the guy but he won $1100+. I think he owes me a beer. Great day yesterday. Nailed both games. Finished around 58% for the weekend. 15-11. I'll take it.

Good luck Belichick.

If you are following, give me a shout out.

I have decided to take the Steve Martin approach.

Dave
MackTheTeach

Sounds like a great weekend, Dave. Always feels good when you steer someone away from a bad bet and they end up cashing big instead. Hitting 58% isn’t easy—solid work. Keep it rolling, Teach.

usma1992 · 09-24-25, 08:09 AM

Appreciate it... PRO .. wondering how things go this weekend.

Going 21-13 is going to be hard to beat. 61%+ on that many bets. I am betting NFL for first time also.

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-25-25, 10:02 AM

Made some last minutes adjustments to NFL before betting the games. Should probably wait until Week 5 but going to bet it anyway.

Here are the final bets for Week 4 NFL and yes I am finally betting. NCAAF is posted earlier and I am not changing that at all.

	NFL	2025Week4			WAIT WEEK 4			MACKTHETEACH		10
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET	Actual Away	Actual Home
8:15 PM	SEATTLE	18	ARIZONA	13	31	0	43.5			0	0
9:30 AM	MINNESOTA	21	PITTSBURGH	13	34	2.5	41	Away Minus		0	0
1:00 PM	PHILADELPHIA	20	TAMPABAY	22	42	3.5	43.5			0	0
1:00 PM	NEWORLEANS	16	BUFFALO	38	54	-16.5	47.5		Over	0	0
1:00 PM	CAROLINA	21	NEWENGLAND	19	40	-5.5	43.5			0	0
1:00 PM	WASHINGTON	23	ATLANTA	16	39	2.5	45.5	Away Minus		0	0
1:00 PM	CLEVELAND	20	DETROIT	29	49	-9	45			0	0
1:00 PM	TENNESSEE	11	HOUSTON	17	28	-7	39.5		Under	0	0
1:00 PM	LACHARGERS	28	NYGIANTS	15	43	6	44.5			0	0
4:05 PM	JACKSONVILLE	20	SANFRANCISCO	20	40	-3.5	47		Under	0	0
4:05 PM	INDIANAPOLIS	28	LARAMS	21	49	-4	49.5			0	0
4:25 PM	CHICAGO	25	LASVEGAS	24	49	0	48			0	0
4:25 PM	BALTIMORE	25	KANSASCITY	26	51	2.5	48.5			0	0
8:20 PM	GREENBAY	20	DALLAS	22	42	7	47	Home Plus		0	0
7:15 PM	NYJETS	23	MIAMI	22	45	-3	45			0	0
8:15 PM	CINCINNATI	13	DENVER	26	39	-7	44			0	0

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-26-25, 06:10 AM

Republishing NCAAF and NFL for the Weekend.
Nice to get out 1-0 on ECU but I dislike betting against my Alma Mater.

	NCAAF	2025Week5			STARTS WEEK 4			MACKTHETEACH.COM
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	Army	28	E Carolina	37	65	-3.5	52.5	Home Minus
7:00 PM	Florida St	33	Virginia	31	64	7	57.5
9:00 PM	TCU	37	Arizona St	25	62	-2.5	55.5	Away Plus
10:30 PM	Houston	40	Oregon St	9	49	12	48.5	Away Minus
12:00 PM	Bowling Green	17	Ohio	26	43	-10.5	50.5		Under
12:00 PM	Notre Dame	32	Arkansas	38	70	6	65.5
12:00 PM	Louisville	17	Pittsburgh	19	36	3.5	55.5		Under
12:00 PM	Duke	38	Syracuse	44	82	5.5	60	Home Plus
12:00 PM	Georgia Tech	34	Wake Forest	11	45	14.5	53
12:00 PM	Rutgers	20	Minnesota	31	51	-5.5	51
12:00 PM	Cincinnati	13	Kansas	18	31	-6	55.5		Under
12:00 PM	S Alabama	22	N Texas	39	61	-13	64
12:00 PM	UCF	21	Kansas St	3	24	-6	49
12:00 PM	USC	39	Illinois	11	50	6.5	60	Away Minus
12:45 PM	Utah St	7	Vanderbilt	43	50	-22.5	59.5		Under
1:00 PM	E Michigan	38	C Michigan	19	57	-5.5	53	Away Plus
1:30 PM	Georgia So	11	J Madison	42	53	-16.5	54.5
3:00 PM	Arkansas St	32	UL Monroe	21	53	-3	56	Away Plus
3:30 PM	Akron	6	Toledo	40	46	-20.5	49
3:30 PM	Utah	42	West Virginia	14	56	10.5	49.5	Away Minus
3:30 PM	San Diego St	14	N Illinois	7	21	3	42.5
3:30 PM	California	23	Boston College	29	52	-6.5	52
3:30 PM	UConn	36	Buffalo	19	55	3	51	Away Minus
3:30 PM	Indiana	32	Iowa	9	41	7	49	Away Minus
3:30 PM	UCLA	15	Northwestern	20	35	-7	45
3:30 PM	Rice	23	Navy	34	57	-14.5	45.5
3:30 PM	Baylor	55	Oklahoma St	19	74	20	60	Away Minus
3:30 PM	LSU	17	Mississippi	31	48	-2	55.5
3:30 PM	Auburn	24	Texas A&M	31	55	-6.5	52
3:30 PM	Ohio St	16	Washington	18	34	9	52	Home Plus
4:00 PM	Hawai'i	39	Air Force	32	71	-4.5	53.5	Away Plus
4:00 PM	New Mexico St	17	New Mexico	37	54	-14	54.5	Home Minus
4:00 PM	Tulane	31	Tulsa	28	59	12.5	54
4:15 PM	Tennessee	32	Mississippi St	32	64	7.5	62.5	Home Plus
6:00 PM	Liberty	18	Old Dominion	25	43	-16	51.5
6:00 PM	Middle Tenn	19	Kennesaw St	29	48	-7	51		Under
7:00 PM	Memphis	39	Florida Atlantic	28	67	13.5	61
7:00 PM	Virginia Tech	23	NC State	42	65	-10	57.5		Over
7:00 PM	Jacksonville St	26	Southern Miss	35	61	-3.5	57	Home Minus
7:00 PM	Arizona	20	Iowa St	9	29	-6	49
7:00 PM	W Kentucky	41	Missouri St	20	61	5.5	60	Away Minus
7:30 PM	App State	45	Boise St	36	81	-17.5	60.5	Away Plus	Over
7:30 PM	San Jose St	25	Stanford	18	43	-2	49	Away Plus	Under
7:30 PM	UMass	0	Missouri	57	57	-43.5	55.5
7:30 PM	Washington St	25	Colorado St	27	52	-4	50
7:30 PM	Oregon	23	Penn St	23	46	-3	52.5
7:30 PM	Alabama	28	Georgia	36	64	-3	53.5	Home Minus
7:45 PM	Kentucky	24	South Carolina	16	40	-6	47.5		Under
8:00 PM	Marshall	17	Louisiana	18	35	-2.5	47.5		Under
9:00 PM	Louisiana Tech	23	UTEP	22	45	4	48	Home Plus	Under
10:15 PM	BYU	26	Colorado	12	38	6.5	47.5

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-26-25, 06:12 AM

NFL Week 4

	NFL	2025Week4			WAIT WEEK 4			MACKTHETEACH
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:15 PM	SEATTLE	18	ARIZONA	13	31	0	43.5
9:30 AM	MINNESOTA	21	PITTSBURGH	13	34	2.5	41	Away Minus
1:00 PM	PHILADELPHIA	20	TAMPABAY	22	42	3.5	43.5
1:00 PM	NEWORLEANS	16	BUFFALO	38	54	-16.5	47.5		Over
1:00 PM	CAROLINA	21	NEWENGLAND	19	40	-5.5	43.5
1:00 PM	WASHINGTON	23	ATLANTA	16	39	2.5	45.5	Away Minus
1:00 PM	CLEVELAND	20	DETROIT	29	49	-9	45
1:00 PM	TENNESSEE	11	HOUSTON	17	28	-7	39.5		Under
1:00 PM	LACHARGERS	28	NYGIANTS	15	43	6	44.5
4:05 PM	JACKSONVILLE	20	SANFRANCISCO	20	40	-3.5	47		Under
4:05 PM	INDIANAPOLIS	28	LARAMS	21	49	-4	49.5
4:25 PM	CHICAGO	25	LASVEGAS	24	49	0	48
4:25 PM	BALTIMORE	25	KANSASCITY	26	51	2.5	48.5
8:20 PM	GREENBAY	20	DALLAS	22	42	7	47	Home Plus
7:15 PM	NYJETS	23	MIAMI	22	45	-3	45
8:15 PM	CINCINNATI	13	DENVER	26	39	-7	44

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-27-25, 05:37 PM

Getting Crushed today...

I call it the Constanza week... play off of Sienfeld. It is the week when the reverse happens. Normally happens Week 6 or 7... the positive is that the system normally balls out after that.

Dave
MackTheTeach

JEFFM22551 · 09-28-25, 11:45 PM

Always nice to have an excuse (Constanza week)when you go 7-10-1 and the pro's 3-2-1 depending on the over/under lines you got.

usma1992 · 09-29-25, 10:22 AM

Rough Weekend....

I always have a Constanza week but it is normally Week 6 or Week 7. Which means, my data is too skewed one direction and it corrects itself. During that week, I have considered betting the opposite direction. I just never know when that week happens and again it is normally Week 6 or Week 7 not Week 5. The data seems to normalize around that time frame. So my totals so far are

NCAAF

32-34 (48.5%)

NFL
3-2-1 (60%)

I was really hoping the data would only produce around 20 bets once it normalizes. Damn it... I produced 32 bets. One less than last week.

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-29-25, 10:26 AM

I will stay the course... I was hoping for a maximum of around 20 bets... Not so much.

	NCAAF	2025Week6			STARTS WEEK 4			MACKTHETEACH.COM
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
9:00 PM	Sam Houston	22	New Mexico St	31	53	2.5	53	Home Plus
7:00 PM	Charlotte	14	S Florida	31	45	-27	54.5		Under
7:00 PM	W Kentucky	34	Delaware	34	68	-2.5	62	Away Plus
10:00 PM	New Mexico	31	San Jose St	27	58	-2.5	57.5	Away Plus
10:30 PM	West Virginia	7	BYU	35	42	-19.5	48
10:30 PM	Colorado St	9	San Diego St	14	23	-6	39
12:00 PM	Air Force	29	Navy	40	69	-10.5	49
12:00 PM	Kentucky	15	Georgia	42	57	-20.5	48.5		Over
12:00 PM	Iowa St	23	Cincinnati	20	43	1	52.5		Under
12:00 PM	Wisconsin	7	Michigan	25	32	-16.5	42.5
12:00 PM	Clemson	28	North Carolina	5	33	14	45.5
12:00 PM	Boston College	25	Pittsburgh	28	53	-5.5	57	Away Plus	Under
12:00 PM	Ohio	33	Ball St	3	36	14.5	51.5	Away Minus	Under
12:00 PM	Illinois	25	Purdue	25	50	8	55.5	Home Plus	Under
12:00 PM	Kansas St	19	Baylor	39	58	-6	61.5	Home Minus
12:00 PM	Army	39	UAB	30	69	6.5	57.5	Away Minus
1:00 PM	UTSA	35	Temple	24	59	6.5	58
1:00 PM	Wake Forest	25	Virginia Tech	25	50	-6	50.5
2:30 PM	W Michigan	26	UMass	8	34	12	45.5
3:00 PM	Oklahoma St	13	Arizona	46	59	-19.5	55.5		Over
3:30 PM	Oregon St	24	App State	40	64	2	54.5
3:30 PM	Virginia	35	Louisville	28	63	-6.5	62.5
3:30 PM	Washington	15	Maryland	19	34	5.5	52.5	Home Plus	Under
3:30 PM	C Michigan	25	Akron	18	43	7	45.5
3:30 PM	E Michigan	21	Buffalo	27	48	-10	49.5
3:30 PM	J Madison	48	Georgia St	6	54	20	54	Away Minus
3:30 PM	UL Monroe	9	Northwestern	20	29	-10.5	40
3:30 PM	Miami OH	8	N Illinois	13	21	4	39
3:30 PM	Penn St	37	UCLA	1	38	25	50
3:30 PM	Texas	31	Florida	3	34	6.5	43.5	Away Minus
3:30 PM	Vanderbilt	24	Alabama	29	53	-9.5	57
3:30 PM	Syracuse	31	SMU	41	72	-16.5	58.5	Away Plus	Over
3:30 PM	Florida Intl	24	UConn	37	61	-9	54.5	Home Minus	Over
3:30 PM	Boise St	32	Notre Dame	38	70	-19.5	65	Away Plus
4:00 PM	Michigan St	13	Nebraska	44	57	-10.5	53.5
4:00 PM	Kent St	0	Oklahoma	56	56	-45.5	53.5
4:00 PM	Texas St	47	Arkansas St	25	72	13.5	64	Away Minus
6:00 PM	Coastal Car	9	Old Dominion	35	44	-17	54
7:00 PM	S Alabama	25	Troy	20	45	-3	47.5
7:00 PM	Florida Atlantic	31	Rice	34	65	-4	52.5
7:00 PM	Texas Tech	39	Houston	14	53	12	50.5	Away Minus
7:00 PM	UNLV	31	Wyoming	18	49	5	53
7:30 PM	Kansas	17	UCF	24	41	4	55.5	Home Plus	Under
7:30 PM	Minnesota	9	Ohio St	21	30	-24	44.5		Under
7:30 PM	Miami	29	Florida St	26	55	4.5	54.5
7:30 PM	Colorado	13	TCU	37	50	-14	58.5
7:30 PM	Mississippi St	23	Texas A&M	34	57	-14	57.5
8:00 PM	Tulsa	18	Memphis	38	56	-21	55.5
10:30 PM	Duke	28	California	25	53	2.5	55.5	Home Plus	Under
10:30 PM	Nevada	9	Fresno St	24	33	-14	44.5		Under

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-29-25, 10:34 AM

Jeff...

I did much worse than 7-10-1.

I was 11-22. (33%) The icing on the cake was the end of the Indiana game, LOL.

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-29-25, 12:47 PM

A little help... if you are tracking my picks...

If you see a QB is out... i.e. Syracuse... let me know. I don't bet back up QBs in college. In addition, if I have it labeled as an Over and the weather is supposed to be awful... rain or win... don't be afraid to chime in.

This week will be interesting. I don't like that it is still choosing 30+ games. It should be only picking about 20-25 goining into Week 6.

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-29-25, 01:10 PM

I tossed the Syracuse game... because of change in QB. Even though Pitt is also changing QB, it has the under and BC getting points so I am keeping them.

Any other QBs out? Oklahoma?

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-30-25, 09:15 AM

NFL Week 5... Picks look strong.

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:15 PM	SANFRANCISCO	20	LARAMS	23	43	-5.5	47
9:30 AM	MINNESOTA	22	CLEVELAND	14	36	3.5	36.5
1:00 PM	MIAMI	18	CAROLINA	24	42	-1	45	Home Minus
1:00 PM	DALLAS	35	NYJETS	24	59	2.5	47	Away Minus	Over
1:00 PM	LASVEGAS	17	INDIANAPOLIS	30	47	-7	48	Home Minus
1:00 PM	DENVER	23	PHILADELPHIA	16	39	-4	43.5
1:00 PM	NYGIANTS	24	NEWORLEANS	21	45	-1	40.5
1:00 PM	HOUSTON	19	BALTIMORE	20	39	-3.5	43
4:05 PM	TENNESSEE	10	ARIZONA	23	33	-9	41.5	Home Minus
4:05 PM	TAMPABAY	19	SEATTLE	22	41	-3.5	44.5
4:25 PM	DETROIT	33	CINCINNATI	10	43	10.5	49	Away Minus
4:25 PM	WASHINGTON	20	LACHARGERS	25	45	-2.5	48
8:20 PM	NEWENGLAND	20	BUFFALO	29	49	-7.5	49.5
8:15 PM	KANSASCITY	22	JACKSONVILLE	23	45	3.5	45.5

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-30-25, 07:10 PM

Interesting ephiphony I had today...

Obviously, if you track me I don't bet until Week 4 on each of my programs. Last year, I did exceptionally well on college football... broke even on NFL and about the same on college basketball.

I am trying to refine my approach. NFL looks solid... I have no arguments and I personally like all the bets it is generating including Week 5.

Last year on NCAAF ... I had 5 star bets and 3 star bets but it got very complicated. However, I kept the system as is and I just had a tight approach and a loose approach. I was trying to generate more bets with less risk. Well, Week 4 it worked and Week 5 it didn't it was abysmal. It was awful... there was a period of time... I was after winning 1 game... to start I lost the next 10.

So without changing anything... I looked at might tight approach versus my loose approach. Where did I get crushed? My tight approach results were extremely good... I won't post because I will just get crucified. What I learned is that especially in college football is that I can't loosen my model up before a certain week.

What determines when I add the extra games? When do I go from 10 games to 30 games. Honestly, I should never be betting 30 games. I think I loosen it when... the model begins generating 20 games or so combined.

This week I am still at 32 games. Which means the math has not normalized. So I will re-post my college picks with only the tight version.

And go from there...

If you are tracking me... I appreciate it.

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-30-25, 07:17 PM

The Tightened Version...

	NCAAF	2025Week6			STARTS WEEK 4			MACKTHETEACH.COM
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
9:00 PM	Sam Houston	22	New Mexico St	30	52	2.5	53	Home Plus
7:00 PM	Charlotte	13	S Florida	31	44	-27	54.5
7:00 PM	W Kentucky	34	Delaware	34	68	-2.5	62	Away Plus
10:00 PM	New Mexico	31	San Jose St	26	57	-2.5	57.5	Away Plus
10:30 PM	West Virginia	7	BYU	35	42	-19.5	48
10:30 PM	Colorado St	9	San Diego St	14	23	-6	39
12:00 PM	Air Force	29	Navy	40	69	-10.5	49
12:00 PM	Kentucky	15	Georgia	42	57	-20.5	48.5
12:00 PM	Iowa St	23	Cincinnati	20	43	1	52.5
12:00 PM	Wisconsin	7	Michigan	25	32	-16.5	42.5
12:00 PM	Clemson	28	North Carolina	4	32	14	45.5
12:00 PM	Boston College	25	Pittsburgh	27	52	-5.5	57	Away Plus
12:00 PM	Ohio	33	Ball St	2	35	14.5	51.5		Under
12:00 PM	Illinois	25	Purdue	25	50	8	55.5
12:00 PM	Kansas St	19	Baylor	39	58	-6	61.5	Home Minus
12:00 PM	Army	39	UAB	29	68	6.5	57.5	Away Minus
1:00 PM	UTSA	35	Temple	24	59	6.5	58
1:00 PM	Wake Forest	25	Virginia Tech	25	50	-6	50.5
2:30 PM	W Michigan	26	UMass	6	32	12	45.5
3:00 PM	Oklahoma St	13	Arizona	46	59	-19.5	55.5
3:30 PM	Oregon St	24	App State	40	64	2	54.5
3:30 PM	Virginia	35	Louisville	28	63	-6.5	62.5
3:30 PM	Washington	15	Maryland	19	34	5.5	52.5		Under
3:30 PM	C Michigan	25	Akron	18	43	7	45.5
3:30 PM	E Michigan	21	Buffalo	27	48	-10	49.5
3:30 PM	J Madison	48	Georgia St	5	53	20	54
3:30 PM	UL Monroe	8	Northwestern	20	28	-10.5	40
3:30 PM	Miami OH	7	N Illinois	12	19	4	39
3:30 PM	Penn St	37	UCLA	1	38	25	50
3:30 PM	Texas	31	Florida	2	33	6.5	43.5
3:30 PM	Vanderbilt	24	Alabama	29	53	-9.5	57
3:30 PM	Florida Intl	24	UConn	37	61	-9	54.5	Home Minus
3:30 PM	Boise St	32	Notre Dame	38	70	-19.5	65
4:00 PM	Michigan St	13	Nebraska	44	57	-10.5	53.5
4:00 PM	Kent St	0	Oklahoma	56	56	-45.5	53.5
4:00 PM	Texas St	47	Arkansas St	25	72	13.5	64	Away Minus
6:00 PM	Coastal Car	9	Old Dominion	35	44	-17	54
7:00 PM	S Alabama	25	Troy	20	45	-3	47.5
7:00 PM	Florida Atlantic	31	Rice	34	65	-4	52.5
7:00 PM	Texas Tech	39	Houston	13	52	12	50.5
7:00 PM	UNLV	31	Wyoming	18	49	5	53
7:30 PM	Kansas	17	UCF	24	41	4	55.5	Home Plus
7:30 PM	Minnesota	8	Ohio St	21	29	-24	44.5		Under
7:30 PM	Miami	29	Florida St	26	55	4.5	54.5
7:30 PM	Colorado	13	TCU	37	50	-14	58.5
7:30 PM	Mississippi St	23	Texas A&M	34	57	-14	57.5
8:00 PM	Tulsa	18	Memphis	38	56	-21	55.5
10:30 PM	Duke	28	California	25	53	2.5	55.5	Home Plus
10:30 PM	Nevada	9	Fresno St	24	33	-14	44.5

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 09-30-25, 07:22 PM

So my ephiphany is let the numbers tell you when to loosen up... start tight then loosen at the appropriate time....

Tightened Version


	NCAAF	2025Week6			STARTS WEEK 4			MACKTHETEACH.COM
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
9:00 PM	Sam Houston	22	New Mexico St	30	52	2.5	53	Home Plus
7:00 PM	Charlotte	13	S Florida	31	44	-27	54.5
7:00 PM	W Kentucky	34	Delaware	34	68	-2.5	62	Away Plus
10:00 PM	New Mexico	31	San Jose St	26	57	-2.5	57.5	Away Plus
10:30 PM	West Virginia	7	BYU	35	42	-19.5	48
10:30 PM	Colorado St	9	San Diego St	14	23	-6	39
12:00 PM	Air Force	29	Navy	40	69	-10.5	49
12:00 PM	Kentucky	15	Georgia	42	57	-20.5	48.5
12:00 PM	Iowa St	23	Cincinnati	20	43	1	52.5
12:00 PM	Wisconsin	7	Michigan	25	32	-16.5	42.5
12:00 PM	Clemson	28	North Carolina	4	32	14	45.5
12:00 PM	Boston College	25	Pittsburgh	27	52	-5.5	57	Away Plus
12:00 PM	Ohio	33	Ball St	2	35	14.5	51.5		Under
12:00 PM	Illinois	25	Purdue	25	50	8	55.5
12:00 PM	Kansas St	19	Baylor	39	58	-6	61.5	Home Minus
12:00 PM	Army	39	UAB	29	68	6.5	57.5	Away Minus
1:00 PM	UTSA	35	Temple	24	59	6.5	58
1:00 PM	Wake Forest	25	Virginia Tech	25	50	-6	50.5
2:30 PM	W Michigan	26	UMass	6	32	12	45.5
3:00 PM	Oklahoma St	13	Arizona	46	59	-19.5	55.5
3:30 PM	Oregon St	24	App State	40	64	2	54.5
3:30 PM	Virginia	35	Louisville	28	63	-6.5	62.5
3:30 PM	Washington	15	Maryland	19	34	5.5	52.5		Under
3:30 PM	C Michigan	25	Akron	18	43	7	45.5
3:30 PM	E Michigan	21	Buffalo	27	48	-10	49.5
3:30 PM	J Madison	48	Georgia St	5	53	20	54
3:30 PM	UL Monroe	8	Northwestern	20	28	-10.5	40
3:30 PM	Miami OH	7	N Illinois	12	19	4	39
3:30 PM	Penn St	37	UCLA	1	38	25	50
3:30 PM	Texas	31	Florida	2	33	6.5	43.5
3:30 PM	Vanderbilt	24	Alabama	29	53	-9.5	57
3:30 PM	Florida Intl	24	UConn	37	61	-9	54.5	Home Minus
3:30 PM	Boise St	32	Notre Dame	38	70	-19.5	65
4:00 PM	Michigan St	13	Nebraska	44	57	-10.5	53.5
4:00 PM	Kent St	0	Oklahoma	56	56	-45.5	53.5
4:00 PM	Texas St	47	Arkansas St	25	72	13.5	64	Away Minus
6:00 PM	Coastal Car	9	Old Dominion	35	44	-17	54
7:00 PM	S Alabama	25	Troy	20	45	-3	47.5
7:00 PM	Florida Atlantic	31	Rice	34	65	-4	52.5
7:00 PM	Texas Tech	39	Houston	13	52	12	50.5
7:00 PM	UNLV	31	Wyoming	18	49	5	53
7:30 PM	Kansas	17	UCF	24	41	4	55.5	Home Plus
7:30 PM	Minnesota	8	Ohio St	21	29	-24	44.5		Under
7:30 PM	Miami	29	Florida St	26	55	4.5	54.5
7:30 PM	Colorado	13	TCU	37	50	-14	58.5
7:30 PM	Mississippi St	23	Texas A&M	34	57	-14	57.5
8:00 PM	Tulsa	18	Memphis	38	56	-21	55.5
10:30 PM	Duke	28	California	25	53	2.5	55.5	Home Plus
10:30 PM	Nevada	9	Fresno St	24	33	-14	44.5

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 10-02-25, 12:01 PM

Lesson Learned from Week 4 and Week 5....

I have two ways of calculating bets. A tight way and a loose way. This year I chose to use them both together and that is why I was generating so many bets.

So I examined those two weeks.

Week 4
Tight
10-1

Loose
10-12

Overall 20-13

Week 5
Tight
7-2

Loose
4-19

Overall 11-21--- Late toss of Syracuse game because QB was hurt.

Total 31-34. Obviously, the loose model is crushing me right now, but I believe that as numbers normalize, it will become valuable. Since the model picked 31 games again this week. I am only going with the Tight model only. I believe the model will eventually tell me when to open it up by decreasing the amount of games bet. It would be nice to be 17-3 tight model but lesson learned. I will definitely apply this lesson to College basketball when it starts.

Let's see how it does this week. I am still only 3 games under 500, but I understand last weekend was rough.

Dave
MackTheTeach

Igor_1965 · 10-02-25, 12:53 PM

37-0 is about right for Penn State game. Annihilation loading...

usma1992 · 10-03-25, 08:04 AM

Always like winning Thursday night game ... to start the weekend...

New Mexico State crushed them.

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 10-05-25, 04:32 PM

So excited ... and a little frustrated at myself...

This weekend college football I went 6-7 because I only used my tightened system. UCF had the ball on the 1 yard line 1st and goal and couldn't get a yard after 4 attempts. In their defense, the quarterback was knocked out but still one yard. Ohio State screwed me by a .5 on the under but that is gambling.

But again lesson learned. I would be 23-10 in the tight system... instead I am 37-41... 4 games under 500. I realized that do to the disparity of matchups in college football, you need more time before you loosen up the system to let data normalize. I was just trying to create more action... and I made a mistake.

On NFL... which I find to be tougher... 3-2-1 Week 4.

I think I might go 6-0 they way it looks. I am upping my bet on college football this weekend to 4% of my bankroll on each game because I believe the data will normalize.

I can't wait to see how many games it picks... I think the sweet spot is between 15-20. I won't make the same mistake on College Basketball. Never leave your wing man.

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 10-06-25, 08:36 AM

Arizona... couldn't deliver...

NCAAF 6-7

Lost Ohio State bet .5 points and UCF had 1st and goal from the 1 and couldn't score.

NFL 5-1

I would have been 6-0 if Arizona didn't play like idiots.

this past weekend. I absolutely nailed the Dallas score. I had it dead on 59 points and had Dallas score being 35-24... it turned out to be 37-22... Two points off.

I nailed the Eagle Score too 23-16 versus 21-17.

Having fun. NCAAF produced too many bets again so I am going to leave it tightened.

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 10-06-25, 08:37 AM

Igor,

I think everyone was a little off on the Penn State game, LOL. They got wrecked, I am sure Franklin will be replaced.

Dave
MackTheTeach

JEFFM22551 · 10-06-25, 01:04 PM

i ONLY SEE 10 COLLEGE GAMES AND NOT 13 A RECORD OF 4-6 STARTING WITH THURSDAY ;NIGHT WITH NEW MEXICO ST. GREAT WEEK ON THE PROS AT 4-1

JEFFM22551 · 10-06-25, 01:05 PM

You didnt post arizona or ohio state anywhere

usma1992 · 10-06-25, 02:30 PM

What? Not sure what you are looking at..

Post 93 clearly has all the games I bet... NCAAF and Post 90 clearly has all the NFL games. Are you sliding far enough down and up? Or left and right... you were wrong last weekend too. I lost more than what you said. You aren't seeing all the games.

I was 5-1 NFL and 6-7 college.

Dave
MackTheTeach

usma1992 · 10-06-25, 02:37 PM

Staying with Tightened Version... for NCAAF... crushed the NFL this weekend... not just with the picks but with the projections.

It produced 33 Picks again. I need it to get into the low 20s.

	NCAAF	2025Week7			STARTS WEEK 4			MACKTHETEACH.COM
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	Missouri St	23	Middle Tenn	28	51	2.5	51	Home Plus
8:00 PM	Liberty	13	UTEP	24	37	2	47.5
7:00 PM	Louisiana Tech	26	Kennesaw St	15	41	7	45.5
7:30 PM	E Carolina	31	Tulane	25	56	-7	55
8:00 PM	Southern Miss	40	Georgia So	19	59	2.5	60.5
8:00 PM	Jacksonville St	37	Sam Houston	16	53	8.5	55.5
7:30 PM	S Florida	29	N Texas	34	63	-2.5	67.5
9:00 PM	Fresno St	24	Colorado St	15	39	6.5	45.5
9:00 PM	Rutgers	21	Washington	29	50	-10.5	59.5
12:00 PM	UCF	26	Cincinnati	25	51	-10.5	56
12:00 PM	Charlotte	13	Army	39	52	-17.5	47	Home Minus
12:00 PM	Louisiana	2	J Madison	37	39	-17.5	47
12:00 PM	Pittsburgh	24	Florida St	37	61	-9.5	58
12:00 PM	UCLA	18	Michigan St	26	44	-7.5	55
12:00 PM	Miami OH	24	Akron	14	38	10.5	46.5
12:00 PM	Toledo	34	Bowling Green	7	41	9.5	49
12:00 PM	Alabama	21	Missouri	34	55	3.5	53
12:00 PM	Ohio St	29	Illinois	6	35	15	50
12:00 PM	Stanford	17	SMU	36	53	-17.5	55.5
12:00 PM	Houston	37	Oklahoma St	15	52	13.5	47.5
12:45 PM	Washington St	8	Mississippi	53	61	-32	59
1:00 PM	N Illinois	15	E Michigan	25	40	1.5	48.5
2:30 PM	UMass	22	Kent St	19	41	-2.5	49.5
3:30 PM	Old Dominion	40	Marshall	13	53	14	55
3:30 PM	App State	43	Georgia St	17	60	3	56.5
3:30 PM	Northwestern	9	Penn St	28	37	-22	48
3:30 PM	Virginia Tech	16	Georgia Tech	38	54	-14.5	55.5
3:30 PM	Ball St	3	W Michigan	22	25	-9.5	43.5
3:30 PM	Iowa St	27	Colorado	15	42	5	52
3:30 PM	Nebraska	27	Maryland	18	45	5.5	47
3:30 PM	TCU	31	Kansas St	18	49	1.5	57.5
3:30 PM	NC State	20	Notre Dame	39	59	-22.5	62.5
3:30 PM	Indiana	24	Oregon	28	52	-8	54
3:30 PM	Wake Forest	30	Oregon St	20	50	2.5	52.5
3:30 PM	Oklahoma	19	Texas	15	34	-2.5	42.5		Under
3:30 PM	Air Force	31	UNLV	37	68	-7	67.5
4:00 PM	Navy	36	Temple	15	51	8.5	52.5
4:15 PM	Arkansas	31	Tennessee	50	81	-13.5	69
6:00 PM	UAB	30	Florida Atlantic	42	72	-5	69.5	Home Minus
7:00 PM	Iowa	17	Wisconsin	8	25	4	37
7:00 PM	UL Monroe	21	Coastal Car	21	42	2	44
7:00 PM	Florida	10	Texas A&M	33	43	-8.5	46
7:00 PM	San Jose St	28	Wyoming	24	52	2.5	50
7:30 PM	Clemson	35	Boston College	14	49	14	54
7:30 PM	Kansas	6	Texas Tech	50	56	-14.5	60.5
7:30 PM	Michigan	24	USC	30	54	-2.5	56
7:30 PM	Rice	26	UTSA	29	55	-13	48.5
7:30 PM	Purdue	22	Minnesota	27	49	-10	51.5
7:30 PM	Georgia	28	Auburn	18	46	3.5	46.5
7:45 PM	South Carolina	3	LSU	18	21	-10	43.5		Under
8:00 PM	BYU	18	Arizona	21	39	2.5	47.5	Home Plus
8:00 PM	Troy	20	Texas St	34	54	-10	54.5
9:45 PM	New Mexico	22	Boise St	40	62	-16.5	59.5
10:15 PM	Arizona St	25	Utah	36	61	-5.5	49	Home Minus
10:30 PM	San Diego St	19	Nevada	4	23	6.5	41.5		Under
11:59 PM	Utah St	20	Hawai'i	38	58	-2	58.5

Dave
MackTheTeach

JEFFM22551 · 10-06-25, 05:44 PM

I see 5 college picks

JEFFM22551 · 10-06-25, 05:45 PM

I cant move your sheet anywhere so you said 33 picks sounds crazyt