Do you sometimes think you know something significant that is NOT known by the Books/Oddsmakers therefore not factored into the closing line?
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I think everything is factored in Opening Line. Public Closes the line.Comment -
Technically -- 'public' money and 'sharp' money are factors in deciding the closing lineComment -
The market trends towards efficiency but there are lots of times when it fails to properly price games in the short term. Phoenix Suns are one example in the NBA this year.Comment -
It's actually the opposite. Opening lines are the softest lines that's why you see small limits on openers. Sharps form the line with their bets and limits are lifted after the market settles. Barring some news event line an injury the sharpest lines are closest to tip off.Comment -
if the opening line is significantly "off" even if it is due to a major injury or act of God, the market can't steam the line to proper efficiency because the risk management alarms will prevent the line from changing too far from the opener depending upon on how much is wagered on the wrong side of the open-ish line in straight bets, parlays, and especially teasers for football.
in other words for example
if the Pittsburgh Dolphins game over/under is set at 42 but then a monsoon hits and the turf sucks and is unplayable the line won't move to 21.5 like it maybe should because the book will be too exposed to middles.
real example... using the monday night game last decade. maybe a bit extreme, but I was just thinking about it today as I walked through some grass in the yard after all the rain here and snow melted.
3-0 Stillers
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Chi_
Oddsmakers cannot take into account things line snowplows either
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the point is a closing line can't always be efficient because it is limited by the elasticity ability of the opening line.
we are talking about the closer here right?Comment -
wrong, opening lines are sharp, because the books set them, they have more information than the public, its their business and livelihood and wont leave it up to chance
closing lines are based on the imperfect information and knowledge the public has and the assumptions the public makes
the books dont care about setting a fair line, they care about getting even action, and the closing line reflects the line were the books get the most balance actionComment -
closing line can be influenced by sharps and even the public but... my point is they can't always be "sharp" or truly efficient
because even in a perfectly efficient market, the line can't be moved to the proper true line because it would open up the books to huge middles.
so while the opener might have everything factored in.....
during the 24 hrs to week to longer (bowl games) their might be an factors that should swing the line, but it won't swing as far as it should, because the books won't budge off certain numbers to limit their exposure.Comment -
Did you ever stop to think that sharps may only want to risk so much on a particular line? Say.....today they have enough on Washington/Minnesota over 203.5, 204, 204.5, 205, etc.. and don't want more on over 207 even though pinnacle is hanging under 207.5 +102?Comment -
Well, it stuck around longer then it would have normally anyhow. 208 minimum everywhere now.Comment -
Do the books set traps?Comment -
FalseComment -
the sharpest line is always the opener. thats why so many times the original # covers despite what the late hit is at. hence the push is rarely an issueComment -
Many Sharp Posters on SBR... Yep , many dull ones tooComment -
sammy a guy like me who has been betting for some time can see when a ml and spread dont correlate.Comment -
Put it this away...
If you knew the OPENING line 48hrs beforehand vs knowing the CLOSING line 48hrs beforehand
which would make you (avg sharp bettor) the most $$$Comment
