you're wrong about Stanford. Their middle linebacker, team's top tackler and a senior, went out this week for the season with a torn ACL. Their defense is way too slow to keep up with the Ducks. Masoli grew up in the Bay Area and will be ready to put on a show for his family and friends. Lots of Ducks are from the Bay Area. Ducks win an other Pac-10 blowout and easily cover.
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Comment -
Lang 3-0 today. WowComment -
lol time to tail lang hes waking upComment -
SUNDAY
25 DIME - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS - Love the Chargers in this spot here.
Who are the Giants to be laying more than a field goal to anybody right now?
Seriously folks, this is a team that over the last 3 weeks has gone from contender to pretender. Simple as that.
It started in New Orleans 3 weeks ago, when the Saints exposed this Giants defense to a degree we haven't seen under Tom Coughlin.
Then 2 weeks ago, Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals went into New York and exposed Giants even more in getting the outright win as a 7 point underdog.
Last week the Eagles showed what happened against New Orleans and Arizona was no accident as they embarrassed New York in a big way.
The Giants for all intents and purposes, are done.
Mark it down now. They are done and the main reason they are done is the fact they can't cover anybody.
The can't get pressure with their front four so they are having to blitz more, and if you know anything about the NFL, then you should know if you blitz in this league, the chances are you are playing man to man behind it and if those guys can't cover, you are in big trouble.
After they play the Chargers today, they play Atlanta, at Denver, Dallas and Philly. Quite frankly, I can see them losing all 4 of those games. They catch a break facing Washington after that but then they finish with Carolna and at Minnesota.
I know this might be hard to accept but 8-8 is probably reality, or even 7-9 isn't out of the question. That is how bad and overrated this team is.
At the NFL level, when you lose your defensive coordinator - as good as Spagnuola is, there is a very good chance your defense is going to struggle which is exactly what we are seeing from New York. They look lost.
Even after their implosion the last 3 weeks, the Giants are still an overvalued team. Highly overvalued, and I will gladly take the Chargers who I feel match up very well offensively against this Giants defense and will be able to have enough success to be in this game the whole way.
I will gladly take the Chargers and the points and it wouldn't suprise me in the least bit to see San Diego win this game outright.
25 dime CHARGERS
10 DIME - CAROLINA PANTHERS - Way to many points here.
I have to admit, I didn't give the Panthers a chance out in Arizona last week but let me tell you something right now, that was the way I remember the Panthers playing.
The way they ran the football and put Jake in very manageable situations, that is how this team used to win football games.
Now they are catching close to 2 touchdowns here against a division foe they are very familiar with and having gotten the money 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Watching the Monday night game and seeing the success the Falcons were having on the ground against this Saints defense, I immediately felt the Panthers would be able to do the same thing today.
Carolina will attack this game exactly the same way they did Arizona last week. Run the football. Run the football some more. Run the football until you can't run the football anymore.
Can the Panthers win this game outright? You better believe they can, and if they win the turnover battle, they just might.
But catching this many points from a Saints team that all of a sudden is overvalued.
Folks, 2 years ago the linemaker in Vegas got burned by the high scoring Patriots as they covered their 10 games to start the year and the public killed the Vegas sportsbooks right along with it.
After they blew out Buffalo on Sunday night 56-10, oddsmakers in Vegas said that's it. We are not letting this team beat us again.
The next 6 weeks of the regular season the Patriots were laying 24 at home to Philly, 20 1/2 on the road at Baltimore, 24 at home to the Jets, 24 at home to the Dolphins and 13 on the road at New York.
That gives you and idea of how the linemakers overvalued the Patriots because they weren't going to let the public make money with this team.
After the Buffalo blowout, you know what the Patriots went against the spread the rest of the year including the playoffs? 1-10 ATS.
I honestly feel we are dealing with a Saints team the linemaker has decided to do the same thing with but the only difference is they are not waiting for week 11 to jack the line up like they did with New England.
They started last week with the -11 number with Atlanta, and it continued this week with a 13 number with the Panthers.
Learned my lesson on Monday night. Simple as that.
10 dime CAROLINA
FREE SELECTION - SEATTLE SEAHAWKSComment -
Time to fade LangComment -
I love the Chargers, unfortunately.Comment -
so who do u like next week,lolOriginally posted by badhunterComment -
I actually like his analysis for SundayComment -
fcvk...me too.Originally posted by daggerkobeComment -
MONDAY
Note:
I gave you 3 underdog outright winners Saturday with Kansas St, Stanford, and Purdue.
I follow that up with two more dogs on Sunday with Carolina, and the big play on the Chargers, and even a miracle pick six cover with Seattle as the free pick.
The entire day however was about San Diego winning the game outright.
The last Chargers drive was the epitome of the Giants season as I illustrated in my breakdown on Sunday. They went right down the field without resistance.
Truth of the matter: Chargers were in control of that game from start to finish. There's your 5 point dog to win outright making it a perfect 5-0 weekend.
The NFL season has hit it's halfway mark, and I'm telling you right now that I am just getting this train started. You will see nothing but consistency in a very positive way.
We have arrived at the launch pad, and we are now ready to take off as this 2nd half of the season is going to be epic.
We will keep building up for the bowl games, NFL playoffs and you already know my "Super Bowl" history.
It's about to get really good, really fast. Simple as that.
Now watch me bang home this Monday winner and make it a 3-day run of +100 dimes and considering how on fire I have been with weeknight college football winners, it's shaping up to be another big winning week.
Long way to go here in 2009. Long way to go. Let's keep the winning momentum going tonight.
15 DIME - PITTSBURGH STEELERS - (if line is 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 3. If it's 3 you buy the 1/2 and lay 2 1/2.) Who do you trust tonight? Ben Rothliesberger of Kyle Orton?
For my dollar, it's Big Ben. Simple as that.
Last week the Broncos were exposed by an aggressive Ravens defense that had a week to prepare for Mr.Orton and the Denver offense.
Baltimore flat owned Orton all day long with a variety of blitzes, stunts and just an all out great gameplan defensively.
Now the Steelers come in here off a bye week, and if you don't think for one second Dick Lebeau won't have an even better gameplan for Orton, then you don't know Lebeau.
I am not taking anything away from their 6-1 start, it's been great but if you really examine it, they are a couple of plays away from being 4-3.
They should have never beaten Cincinnati with the deflected pass, Dallas was 1st and goal inside the last minute and couldn't punch it in.
And the Patriots blew a 14 point 2nd half lead which is something a Bill Belichick coached team just doesn't do.
My question is this. If the Broncos were 4-3 what would this line be tonight? Steelers -6...-7?
Value in this game tonight sides with the Steelers.
Now I know what you are thinking. You are thinking the Steelers haven't played anybody. Only 3 of their 7 opponents have a better than .500 record while the Broncos played 5 of 7.
So you are correct in your thinking. The Steelers have had it pretty easy so far this year but you can't discount the advantage Pittsburgh has coming in here off their bye week. It is huge.
Would I be tempted to take Denver if the Steelers didn't have 2 weeks to prepare? Oh most certainly.
But you give me the defending Super Bowl champs 2 weeks to gameplan you, and I will gladly roll the dice with Pittsburgh every time.
I just can't get the Ravens game out of my mind. Just can't.
The Broncos offense was just terrible and what concerned me even more was Denver had 2 weeks to prepare a great gameplan in which to attack the Ravens. I'm talking 2 full weeks to prepare and here is what you got.
10 drives total for the game with 8 of those drives ending with a punt. 3 times they went 3 and out. 2 times they picked up one first down and then punted. 200 total yards for the game. 3 of 13 on 3rd down. Average yards per play 3.4 yards.
You were able to do all that with 2 weeks to prepare!?!? A lot of teams start off the year being perceived as much better than they are until they start really facing good defenses at which time your offensive weaknesses start getting exposed.
I mean, let's be honest here folks, he is still Kyle Orton and he will never be confused with John Elway.
As far as Pittsburgh is concerned, they seem to always peak in November and December. It is their mantra to start slow and finish strong.
The fact of the matter is Denver will not be able to consistently run the football which means, just like last week, winning this game will fall squarley on the shoulders of Orton. He failed miserably last week and he will again fail miserably this week.
He couldn't do a thing versus the Ravens defense last week, and I saw nothing in that game which leads me to believe he will be able to do a thing against Pittsburgh's defense tonight.
And your 3rd string right tackle faces Harrison all night long. Ouch.
Bottom line is this. If Kyle Orton plays perfect football tonight and beats me, I will tip my cap to him but quite frankly I don't see that happening.
Since he took over as head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Mike Tomlin has coached his team 4 times on Monday night. He is 4-0.
Let's go ahead and make him 5-0 as the Steelers defense makes it a long night for Mr. Orton and Big Ben does what Big Ben always does, come up big in the big game in front of the Monday night crowd.Comment -
Lang is 6-0? I dont watch his videos when he wins, he seems to forget he is down 1000 dimesComment -
Lang on fire!!Comment -
TUESDAY
Note:
Don't think I could have broken down that game any better for you.
Big Ben or Kyle Orton? Simple as that.
Bottom line folks is you don't have 2 weeks to prepare for someone, 2 weeks to gameplan, 2 weeks to be 100% ready only to go to Baltimore and look like you never ran a play in your life.
Did you really think Denver was going to execute for 60 minutes against the Steelers defense if they couldn't score more than 7 points against the Ravens?
Like I said, you give me the Steelers laying a 3 number against anybody on the planet with a week to prepare and I will jump all over it.
In a really good rhythm right now going 3-0 Saturday, 2-0 Sunday and 1-0 Monday. I've gone 7-1-1 last 9 weekly college football releases last 3 weeks Tuesday thru Friday.
Just have to keep it going. Keep building off the winning week last week. The +100 dimes the last 3 days.
I am very aware of how much work stills needs to be done and I am taking on that challenge head on.
10 DIME - BUFFALO BULLS - There will be no quit in Turner Gill's squad tonight.
First of all, this line is coming down as people are starting to jump on Ohio in this football game. Jump all you want.
From the outside it looks like Ohio has everything to play for at 6-3, and competing for the MAC East title and a date in the MAC championship game, and has had 10 days to get ready for this game but there is a game they just played that concerns me in this spot here.
3 weeks ago ago at home to Kent State, the Bobcats lost 20-11 mustering up 164 yards total offense against the 56th ranked defense in the country. I'm talking 11 points and 164 total yards here folks.
Now you are facing a defense in Buffalo ranked 55th but this time you are on the road.
Here are other concerns for me in trying to make a case for Ohio in this game.
Against a schedule that features just 2 BCS opponents in UConn and Tennessee with the rest being MAC opponents and Cal Poly, Ohio's offense comes in ranked 93rd running the football, 90th passing all adding up to the 105th total offense out of 120 teams.
Conversely, Buffalo has played Pittsburgh, UTEP, UCF, and the two best teams in the MAC in Temple and Central Michigan, and through a much tougher schedule have managed the 50th best running attack, 35th passing for the 35th best offensive team in the country.
Yes, defensively Ohio is ranked 37th overall to the Bulls 55 but again, in my opinion, Buffalo has played a much tougher schedule. Simple as that.
I am impressed with Ohio's performance at Tennessee but to lay the kind of egg they laid at home to Kent State has me a bit concerned here.
Let's not lose sight of one thing here. Buffalo was one 3rd down conversion away from beating Bowling Green, and they are also one or two plays away from being 7-2. This is fantasitic value with the Bulls tonight.
They have beaten Ohio by double digits the last 2 years, and like I said at the top, there will be no quit in Turner Gill's team tonight. They are on national TV for the 2nd straight week and from a recruiting standpoint, they will take this game as serioius as any game this year.
Finally, it's not out of the question for Buffalo to finish 6-6 and still get a bowl game and I truly believe that will be Gill's mantra besides the fact he will not want to lose back to back home games in the MAC.
I am going against the public line move, with the home team, with the better offense, against a team they have manhandled the last 2 years to win this game and keep their slim bowl hopes alive.
10 dime BUFFALO
FREE SELECTION - OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDERComment -
It is awesome that he is soooo cocky about the Steelers game but only put 15 "dimes" on it.Comment -
That's the great thing about Lang, only he could lose 5000 dimes in 3 years and brag how great he is. But Im sure deep inside, he knows what a fraud he is. Afterall, he's reminded by all the death threats his clients send on a regular basis.
Comment -
WEDNESDAY
NOTE:
Coaching stupidity. I flat out can't stand it.
With 45 seconds to go in the game down by 3 points with 2 timeouts, Buffalo completes a pass down to the Ohio 33 yards line for a first down.
Instead of using one of your timeouts right there and just getting everybody under control and on the same page, Turner Gill calls for a spiking of the ball thus only giving yourself 2 plays to work with.
Hey Turner, what were you holding those timeouts for, to take back in the locker room with you, put them in your office drawer and see if you can use them next year?
With 45 seconds and 33 yards of field to work with, there isn't enough time to use 2 timeouts and for that matter, with the clock stopping with every first down, your next 3 plays from the 33 yard line are critical.
Use your timeout there, get focused gain 10 yards, ground the ball and guess what, you are anywhere between their 15 yard line and 23 yard line, 18 seconds on the clock and 1 timeout.
Nope, ground the ball, incomplete on 2nd down and a tipped INT on 3rd down and game over. No field goal. No OT. No Nothing.
I met an NFL referee on a flight a couple of years ago. A very famous one at that. You would know exactly who he is if you saw him. I struck up a conversation with him as just a businessman flying to Florida to play some golf and not a sports handicapper who just finished his Television work in Philly.
He said the biggest mistake he has seen in all his years officiating games is how bad coaches at the college and NFL level have no clue about clock management.
Let's just add Turner Gill to the list. My god, I just hate being on the right side of a game, against a public line move and have coaching stupidity bring me down. Especially going for a 7th straight football winner.
Oh well, a 6-1 run still has things heading in the right direction as well as this Tuesday thru Friday weeknight run of 7-2-1 and counting.
Back in the saddle tonight.
15 DIME - CENTRAL MICHIGAN & OVER - 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER - Over the years the one thing I have learned about the MAC conference is expect the unpredictable, and along with that comes more backdoor covers than any league in the country.
Central Michigan should blowout Toledo. This game shouldn't even be close. Vegas thinks the same way I do installing the Chippewas as a 17-point home favorite.
I could see Toledo and their crazy offense getting the ball back down 3 touchdowns in the last 4 minutes and stick it right in everybody's face and lose by 14.
I don't know how many times in the past 4 years Central Michigan has done exactly that to me. Allowed the backdoor with a late fumble or INT. So tonight, I protect myself.
In their 3 home games this year they beat Alcorn State 48-0, Akron 48-21 and Eastern MIchigan 56-0.
Now after 3 straight on the road and 10 days to prepare for this battle, offensively I feel they will be ready to roll. It's their defense against Toledo's offense that will determine the cover.
Toledo has the 13 best passing attack in the country and 18th best overall offense so they are going to get their points and with a passing attack like that, they are going to score against anybody which brings the backdoor into play.
These teams are going to score and yes, Central Michigan could very well win this game by 4 touchdowns but as I said, I've seen them up 21 and driving to go up 28 with 6 minutes in the 4th only to see LeFevour throw a stupid INT and the next thing you know it's a 14 point win.
For this very reason, I am taking Central Michigan down to -11 and the total down to 54 and I am rolling with a 2 team 6 point teaser in the wacky MAC conference.
I had a similiar thought process last night with Ohio-Buffalo but didn't pull the trigger and it cost me. I won't make that same mistake twice.
2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER CENTRAL MICHIGAN and OVER
5 DIME - PHOENIX SUNS - Normally I would side with the road team here catching the Suns in a serious jet lag situation, but I just don't trust this New Orleans team right now.
The Hornets have covered just 3 of their 8 games this year and now have to step up to a Suns team that finished their road trip very strong after they laid an egg at Orlando.
They went into Boston on back-to-back nights and beat the Celtics by 7, followed by big wins over the Wizards and the Sixers.
Like I said, you spend 4 games on the East coast, and them come back west and play a couple of days later your legs can feel like they weigh 100 pounds each, but I feel the Suns are one of the best-conditioned teams in the NBA and will be ready to roll.
This game may be close for awhile but as soon as the Suns get their legs under them, it's bye-bye time for the Hornets, who were 0-4 on the road until they beat the Clippers 2 nights ago.
Phoenix is the play.
5 DIME - MILWAUKEE BUCKS - Denver has to be tired in this spot here.
They come into Milwaukee finishing up their 6 game east coast road trip on the 2nd of back-to-back games having battled the Bulls down to the wire last night.
Now they face a Bucks team that has won 3 of their last 4 SU, and are 4-0 ATS. In fact, you go back to last year and you will see a Bucks team on a 7-1 ATS run.
You couldn't ask for a better spot for the Bucks to get after this Denver team playing their 6th game in 10 nights. Folks, I know it's early in the season but 6 games in 10 nights is 6 games in 10 nights anyway you slice it.
I will gladly take the generous amount of points and call for the Bucks to take advantage of a sluggish Denver team that has failed to cover their last 3 ATS.
Love what Brandon Jennings is doing and the impact he has made, and I'm sure Billups can't wait to be running around chasing him all night.
Grab the Bucks and the points.
FREE SELECTION - DALLAS MAVERICKSComment -
THURSDAY
NOTE:
Ok, I get it. Didn't need the teaser after all with Central Michigan.
Yes, I was laughing in the 2nd half thinking the Chippewas would get the total on their own, but look at how Toledo still got to 28 points and got the ball back late despite their 5 turnovers.
So the teaser wasn't as crazy a play as it would first appear, but I'll be honest with you, it was nice not to have to sweat a game for a change with no backdoor nonsense involving Central Michigan. Yes, they were very good to me last night.
The run is here. It's finally here, and I feel good about what I have on the table tonight.
Just have to keep grinding. Stay in the groove. Keeping seeing things clearly and count on lady luck to keep smiling my way.
She did that with the Chargers Sunday and their late drive. Didn't smile for me with Buffalo Tuesday nigh,t but she really smiled at me last night.
Let's hope she continues to smile my way for a 5th time in 6 days as I look to keep this winning going.
No better time to get hot than now. All about sustaining it.
15 DIME - MIAMI-OHIO REDHAWKS -Let me get this straight.
You are 9-1 SU the last 10 in the series and you are getting 3 1/2 points at home tonight and the underdog has won the last 4 between these rivals? That is good enough for me.
This is a Redhawks team that played two teams currently in the top 10 early in the year with Boise State and Cincinnati, took their lumps early and are a better team right now because of it.
Over the last 5 weeks they stepped up and been competitive in every single game, picking up their first win of the year along the way.
Let's start with the 16-6 loss at Northwestern, the same Northwestern team that just knocked off undefeated Iowa. If that is not convincing enough, let's look at their last 4 games.
Against 3 of the best teams in the league; Ohio, Temple and Northern Illinois, only the Ohio game on the road got out of hand courtesy of 4 Miami-Ohio turnovers. No shame in that seeing as Ohio leads the country in forcing turnovers.
At home to Northern Illnois and at Temple, they were in both games down to the wire, losing 27-22 to NIU, and a heartbreaking 34-32 loss at Temple.
Folks, Northern Illinois will be facing Central Michigan at the end of the year for one half of the MAC crown while Ohio will be battling Temple for the other half to see who faces off in the MAC Championship.
Miami/Ohio is playing their best ball of the entire year right now facing their rival at home getting 3 points.
I am not taking anything away from Bowling Green. They have a great passing attack and Freddie Barnes is a game-changer, but the fact of the matter is I don't think Bowling Green should be laying points to anybody right now.
Miami/Ohio has nothing to lose and playing with a whole lot of confidence and I will roll with them tonight.
5 DIME - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS - (if 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 3. Never get beat by the hook.) - I just don't trust Jay Cutler on the road against anybody right now.
When you are a QB in the NFL and you have no running game to compliment your passing attack, let's just say you are a lamb being led to the slaughter.
That is the problem facing the Bears right now.
You examine the Niners and you will see a 4 game losing streak, but if you look closer you will see losses to Atlanta, Houston, Indy and Arizona.
No shame in that as you might end up seeing all 4 of those teams playing in January. At least 3 for sure with the Texans having an outside shot.
I know the whole world will be on the Niners here but they are without question the right side of this game.
Another huge problem facing the Bears tonight is they can't stop the run, and if you can't stop the run in the NFL, you are not going to win football games. PERIOD.
All the advantages are with the Niners here who I feel are better coached, better running game and a better defense.
I will make the Bears on a short week travel out west and play error free football. I don't think they can and I am pretty darn confident Cutler will figure out a way to implode.
San Francisco is the play.
FREE SELECTION - SOUTH FLORIDA BULLSComment -
Why did i have to play those plays
Comment -
FRIDAY
NOTE: Guess I knew I was in trouble when Miami-Ohio fumbled the opening kickoff, and less than 2 minutes into the game was down 7-0.
Just can't play catch up all night long when your QB throws 3 interceptions at home. My god. This kid was money on the road at Temple against a defense 3 times better than Bowling Green but as I always say, you can't handicap turnovers and in this case, 5 of them.
Did manage to hang on with NFL winner #4 in a row on the Niners. NFL looks good again this weekend as well off the 2-0 Sunday and the Steelers on Monday night.
Feel good about Temple and the NBA tonight. Feel really good. Just want the winning Friday and the weekend will take care of itself.
Weeknight football run Tuesday thru Friday the last 4 weeks, 9-3-1. Overall football run the last 6 days 10-2 including 4 straight NFL winners. Time to build on that tonight.
Now here is why I love Temple.
15 DIME - TEMPLE OWLS - You give this Temple Owls team a manageable number and they will get it done.
This year they have covered every single number in front of them with exception of two ball games and in those ballgames they were asked to cover double digits.
Laying 14 1/2 at home to Ball State they won by 5, and laying 17 at home to Miami-Ohio they won on the last play of the game 34-32.
Let's talk about that game for a moment.
They were up big 31-13, and had Miami pinned back on their own 11 facing a 2nd and 25. They somehow convert that, move to midfield and once again face an even more horriffic 2nd and 29.
They somehow get it to 4th and 4, and another breakdown in coverage gives Miami a 25 yard TD and following a 3-and-out, Temple's soft prevent allows Miami to go on a 9 play, 62 yard drive, and all of a sudden a 31-13 destruction turns into a 31-26 ballgame.
My feeling is this kind of game couldn't have come at a better time for Temple. With their first ever MAC championship game within their fingertips, I look for a complete renewed focus facing a 2-7 Akron team they should dominate defensively.
Temple runs the football. It's what they do and they have one of the best freshman running backs in the country in Bernard Pierce.
In their 9 games this year Akron's defense has been gashed for over 100 yards in 7 of those 9 games, including Central Michigan for 326, Syracuse for 234 and Northern Illinois for 275.
Teams have been putting 8 in the box the last 3 weeks to stop Temple's run game all year long and the Owls still have put up impressive numbers.
How about 211 at Toledo, 274 at Navy and 224 last week versus Miami-Ohio.
Temple has all the edges here and with best defensive front in the MAC facing a freshman QB, pressure gets the best of Akron tonight and Temple covers another ball game here.
5 DIME - PHILADELPHIA 76ERS - Love Philly in this spot here.
Now I understand both of these teams have been terrible against the number, as they have both only covered 2 games this year.
So the bottom line is something has to give here.
However, you look a little closer and you will see the fact Utah has yet to cover on the road, while the Sixers two home losses were to Boston and Phoenix.
My feeling is the Sixers at home as a small dog is the way to go, as the Jazz continue to struggle along at 3-5, just 1-3 on the road and as I said above, 0-4 ATS on the road as well.
Look for Philly to push tempo and get the Jazz out of their halfcourt set and for the Sixers to get the home win.
5 DIME - PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS - Love going against a team that just fired their coach.
This New Orleans team is in trouble. Simple as that, and having a GM come down from the front office and coach isn't going to make a damn bit of difference. Hornets are on the way down.
Just as well Byron Scott doesn't coach this team. Let the GM come down and deal with it since it was his moves that created this mess.
New Orleans is 3-6 SU and ATS, and catch a Blazers team that is completely on the other side of that at 6-3 SU and ATS, including 4 straight wins and covers.
This game tonight is about one team knowing who they are, know how they are supposed to play and everyones roles are defined and set in place.
I'm rolling with the Blazers and the small chalk tonight.Comment -
SATURDAY
NOTE: Nice to see Temple battle back, and get me the win. Now with the winning Friday out of the way we can attack this Saturday card.
Feeling good about the possiblity of putting up a 2nd straight 3-0 sweep on Saturday and picking up +50 dimes again while I'm at it.
Nothing wrong with an 11-2 football run since last Saturday including 4 straight in the NFL but still a lot of work to go here. Just looking to continue to keep building this thing in a positive direction here in November.
I am just looking to close out 2009 with winning weeks. Did that last week, and off the winning Friday, I am in good position with a solid Saturday to make it 2 in a row.
Now let's get to your Saturday analysis.
30 DIME - DUKE BLUE DEVILS - Tough spot for Georgia Tech today.
Off their OT win at home last week versus Wake Forest, they now travel to Duke to take on the #1 pass offense in the ACC.
Folks, this is a Georgia Tech team playing for an 11th straight week. That is almost unheard of in college football.
Last week I watched Riley Skinner of Wake Forest throw for almost 300 yards on this Tech defense and if you really examine the Yellow Jackets on the road, they can be had.
Miami/Florida put up over 400 yards total offense, Mississippi State put up close to 500 yards, Florida State put up 539 yards and even Vanderbilt put up close to 400 yards.
I am aware a win puts Georgia Tech in the ACC championship game but it's not like Duke is going to just lay down for Georgia Tech. They will come to play.
If Duke can pass for 359 yards at home against the 8th best pass defense in the country Virginia Tech, your telling me they won't be able to execute against 68th?
The bottom line is Duke will never be out of this game with their passing attack and if they can force a few turnovers, they just might pull off another shocker, just as they did for me as a 16 1/2 point dog at NC State.
You remember that game right? Duke won outright by 3 touchdowns 49-28.
Duke gets the cover today.
15 DIME - AUBURN TIGERS - Who is Georgia to be laying points to anybody right now? Why, because they just beat Tennessee Tech 38-0.
This is a Bulldog team that has covered just 2 games this entire year against Arkansas and Vandy both on the road.
At home they are 0-3 ATS struggling to beat Arizona State by 3 as a 17 1/2 point favorite, South Carolina by 4 as a 6 1/2 point favorite and lost to LSU as a 3 1/2 point favorite.
I don't trust this Mark Richt Georgia team as far as I can throw them, and it wouldn't suprise me if Auburn came in here and won the game outright.
The Tigers have a huge edge on offense ranked 12th in the country, and the #1 offense in the SEC. How about those apples, while Georgia comes in ranked 88th. I will gladly take this generous amount of points with a better offense and a comparable defense.
Georgia has the 36th overall defense giving up 5.08 yards per play and 337 yards average a game versus Auburn's 5.10 yards per play. The Georgia defense isn't that much better than Auburn.
Auburn started off the year a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS when they traveled to Arkansas for an early game and the linemaker installed them as a 2 point road favorite. They got blown out.
Off that loss they fell flat at home to Kentucky and then the next week at Lsu they fell flat again.
However, they have since righted their ship with a dominating home win over Ole Miss and after their scrimmage last week versus Furman 63-31, they are ready to roll here.
The Auburn Tigers slump is over. They are ready to make another surge and I believe they will do just that here with a possible outright win.
5 DIME, 3-TEAM TEASER
OREGON, UL MONROE, KANSAS STATE
Let's start with the Ducks. This is going to be a bloodbath all day long.
The Ducks have won the last 4 in this series, and all four have been by double digits. The only thing stopping me from laying the whole ball of wax is trying to gage the emotional state of this Oregon team after last weeks loss to Stanford.
Arizona State played their heart out versus USC at home but they are walking into a hornets nest here against this Ducks team that has been lethal at home in Pac-10 play.
They beat Cal 42-3, Washington State 52-6 and Usc 47-20.
The bottom line is you start beating the USC Trojans of the world by 27 at home, and put up close to 50 doing it, I will gladly tease you down to under 10 points and take my chances.
Now UL- Monroe gets the worst team in the league at home off their 27 point win on the road against North Texas.
Simple thought would lead you to believe if you can beat a better North Texas team at their place by 27, you can handle the worst team in your conference at home by the same amount. I couldn't agree more.
However, when you are a team not used to laying 21 points against anybody, I've seen crazy things happen you can't explain. So therefore I am protecting myself a bit from those crazy things.
Over the last 4 years this LA Monroe team is 12-1 ATS their last 4 games of the year. So as you can see, this team plays very well late.
Feel much better laying less than 12 with this LA Monroe team.
As for Kansas State, they were very good to me last week in beating Kansas but with this line moving all over the place, I will move Kansas State up to getting double digits at home.
This line opened up Kansas State -2 and has moved to Missouri -1 as of Friday night. I have checked injuries, and no major ones are being reported.
A line move of this magnitude always makes me leary of somebody somewhere knowing something somebody else doesn't.
Regardless of the line move, I am jacking up Kansas State to +11 and rolling the dice with head coach Snyder, who has won 13 in a row versus Missouri.
FREE SELECTION - TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS
*Comment -
Seer, I'm 10-0 this week, up nearly $10k! And about to be up even more with Stanford, Oregon State and Arizona. How are you doing? Care to see my tickets?Originally posted by The SeerComment -
Can you post your picks badhunter now on? I would liek to see your nfl picks tommorow as wellComment -
SATURDAY RECAP
30 Dime - Duke - Loser
15 Dime - Auburn - Loser
5 Dime, 3-Team Teaser Loser
Kansas State
UL-Monroe
Oregon
0-3 -54.5 Dimes
Lang is back!!!!Comment -
Good to see Lang is back in form.Comment -
Totally agree.. the order in universe is back to normal!Comment -
SUNDAY
NOTE: Hey, looked pretty darn good at 10-0 in the first quarter didn't it? How about 14-0 in the Auburn game? Looking real good.
I've always said if I am going to lose a top play let it be the wrong side on the wrong day and move on. As for Auburn, tough one to lose.
However, I will not let the call on Duke or Auburn diminish the solid run I have been on the last week and a half. Nor will I let my call on Duke take away from some of the fantastic calls I have had here lately.
Last Saturday 3 dogs outright with Kansas State, Purdue and Stanford crushing Oregon. How about 2 more dog winners last Sunday in the NFL with the Chargers and the Carolina Panthers.
Steelers on Monday. Central Michigan and Over in a teaser on Wednesday, and how about Temple destroying Akron Friday night.
So yes, Duke was a clunker but a pitcher in the zone is still going to make a mistake in the middle of the strike zone and give up a long ball every now and then, and just like a good pitcher he regroups and gets right back in the zone.
Which is exactly what I plan on doing today with NFL winners # 5 and # 6 in a row. Simple as that.
Today I make it a 2nd straight winning Sunday and 6 straight NFL winners right along with it.
30 DIME - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS - If you can't beat the Raiders in Oakland then for my dollar you are not beating the Chargers in San Diego.
You can slowly see the implosion of the Eagles happening right before your very eyes. Every year they do it, and two people are responsible.
Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb.
First of all, the Eagles are off 3 divisional games in a row versus the Redskins, Giants and Cowboys. Now they travel west off those games and a loss last week at home to Dallas.
Next, for the Eagles to win McNabb has to outplay Philip Rivers and folks, as I see it that is not happening today.
I had the Chargers as the 25 dime winner last Sunday and they led the Giants in New York the whole way until a big turnover in the 4th quarter by Rivers gave the Giants the lead only to watch Rivers work the 2 minute drill to perfection and deliver the win.
I feel the Chargers are improving every week and winning the AFC West is not out of the question based on the current struggles of the Denver Broncos.
To put it bluntly, I don't trust McNabb or Andy Reid at all in this situation. Not one bit, especially after their implosion at Oakland. To lose to the Raiders 13-9 just goes to show you how bad this Eagles team can be.
This line opened up Chargers -2 and as of Saturday night it had moved down to a pick'em. That is fine with me. Let these people bet the Eagles here. Not me.
15 DIME - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS - (if line is 3 you buy the 1/2 and get 3 1/2, if line is 2 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and get 3.) - Colts are going down.
Probably going to be some line moves on this game as the day progresses,so if it's moves down to 2 nothing I can do about that. If it's 2 1/2 you buy to +3 and if it's 3 you buy the 1/2 to 3 1/2.
Now, watching the Bears-Niners game on Thursday night I was just flabbergasted at how bad the Niners looked. Even with Jay Cutler giving them 5 interceptions, they still looked like a team stuck in the mud.
I am talking about a Niners team that 3 weeks ago went into Indy and gave the Colts all they could handle, and what is even more amazing about the Colts struggle in that game was the fact they were coming off a bye week.
Then last week the Colts struggled all day long to put away a Texans team, and if not for a missed 42 yarder at the end of regulation by Houston to force OT, Indy might very well have lost that game.
The bottom line is this; you start getting into the 7th or 8th week of the season you are not supposed to be struggling with the Niners and Texans of Home
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the league, you are supposed to be putting people away.
Colts just aren't doing that and against a team like New England, it will come back to haunt you and I believe it will haunt Indy today.
I love what the Patriots are doing right now having won their last 3 games by double-digits and granted, it was over Tennessee 59-0, Tampa Bay 35-7, and Miami 27-17 but truth be told, I don't see them struggling to put these teams away like Indy is.
Eventually these injuries Indy has on defense is going to catch up to you. You can't be down to your 5th and 6th string DB's and not have a guy like Tom Brady pick you apart and rest assured folks, Alex Smith and Matt Schaub are not to be mistaken for Tom Brady.
This game tonight comes down to match ups across the board and those matchups favor the Patriots. Simple as that.
In their 7 meetings head to head, Tom Brady is 5-2 versus Peyton Manning and believe me, it's as personal as it gets here folks. Very personal.
Lastly, I really want you to examine who the Colts have beaten. Jags to open the year, and the Dolphins on Monday night in a game they never should have won. Arizona, Seattle, Tennessee, Rams, Niners and Houston.
There are no Bill Belichick and Tom Brady tandems in there. At least not the way I see it.
Two teams heading in opposite directions right now, with the Patriots playing great ball and with all their injuries, the Colts are struggling and meeting the wrong team at the wrong time.
10 DIME - DETROIT LIONS - They fight hard, I will give them that much, and I expect them to fight here.
In the first meeting between these two the Lions led most of the first half before a late Vikings touchdown made it 10-7.
Lions were driving first drive of the 3rd quarter when running back Smith fumbled and it then opened up the flood gates.
Detroit actually matches up really well with the Vikings, and have played them tough the last 2 years. Catching this many points is just to much wood for the Vikings to cover.
Lastly, as a favorite of 14 points of more in his career, Brett Farve is 1-14-1 ATS. Only 1 cover my friends and in my mind, no way he gets number 2 today.
FREE SELECTION - KANSAS CITY CHIEFSComment -
I love it. He is on the chargers.Comment -
WEDNESDAY
20 DIME - CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS - (if line is 14 1/2, you buy the 1/2 and only lay 14.) - Going to ride the Chippewas again tonight.
First of all, love the line move here as this line opened CMU -17, and has moved all the way down to 14. My guess is the public is jumping on Ball State because of their impressive effort last week versus Northern Illinois.
Trust me folks, NIU is not to be confused with Central Michigan.
NIU is one dimensional. The rely on the run, and are not known for putting up big points and forcing you to open up your offense. Fact of the matter is, Ball State matched up really well with NIU.
They don't match up at all with CMU.
Last week after falling behind Toledo 14-7 on the opening play of the 2nd quarter on National TV, Central Michigan exploded for 49 unanswered points for a 56-28 rout.
I am talking about a Toledo team that has the 22nd overall offense in the country coming in and they couldn't keep up with this CMU offense.
So my question tonight is this. How is Ball State going to match points with the 109th ranked offense because trust me folks they are not going to shut down CMU.
CMU is smart enough to force Ball State to throw to beat them and for my dollar I don't think Tanner Justice is up for the task tonight.
Ball State was thrilled with his 11 of 19 performance for 139 yards last week at Northern Illinois, but that isn't going to be enough to get it done here.
I really feel people are missing this game because they feel Northern Illinois and Central Michigan are about even since they will be playing next week for the MAC West title, but quite frankly that is like comparing apples to oranges.
Unlike Northern Illinois, CMU is an offensive juggernaut right now, peaking at just the right time playing their best football of the entire year.
CMU has covered every game this year with exception to their 20-13 road win at Buffalo laying 9 1/2 and at Boston College as a 5 1/2 point dog losing 31-10.
This is the class of the entire MAC conference playing an inferior opponent who has one win this year against Eastern Michigan. For the life of me I can't see Ball State staying within 21 points of Central Michigan tonight.
I have a Central Michigan offense that has put up over 400 yards total offense in all 6 of their MAC games this year and in 3 of those they put up over 500 yards total offense against Akron, Eastern Michigan and Toledo.
The bottom line is Ball State will not be able to hold up defensively for 60 minutes in this game against CMU and they are going to have to match points and they don't have the offense to do that against a pretty darn good CMU stop unit.
CMU is ranked 33rd stopping the run, 21st in scoring defense and that does not bode well for a average at best Ball State offense.
I will jump all over CMU tonight, go against the line move and look for a 3 touchdown win for Central tonight.
5 DIME - ATLANTA HAWKS - I said on Monday, you don't start rolling into Boston as a double-digit road dog, and beat the Celtics by double digits unless you are playing your best basketball of the year.
I jumped on the Hawks against the Blazers on Monday night and they got it done for me in OT, and I will come right back with them here against the Heat.
I said going into Monday that Atlanta was on a tear since their double digit loss at Charlotte, a game I had the Bobcats as a 5 dime winner.
With exception of that no show by Atlanta, they have now covered every single game this year. Think about that folks.
Atlanta has won their 4 home games this year by 11 over the Pacers, 11 over the Wizards, 25 over Denver, 23 over the Hornets and covering the 3 1/2 over the Blazers.
Now they catch the Heat off a home loss to the Thunder and playing only their 3rd road game of the year, the fewest among any NBA team this year.
Perfect set up for the Hawks as they roll to a double digit win.
5 DIME - UTAH STATE AGGIES - Ok, so let me get this straight...
Idaho goes into Utah as a 10 point underdog and beats the Utes outright 94-87 and now Utah is laying 3 1/2 to the best team in the WAC in Utah State?
Utah lost their starting center in Nevill along with their other 3 top scorers, so as you can see, not an easy task losing your top 4 scorers from a year ago as you can see from their outright loss to Idaho.
Just like the Vandals, Utah State returns 4 starters from last years squad that combined for 186 starts and 239 games played as a group in their Utah State careers.
Plus they get back 6' 8" sophmore Nate Bendall, who played for the Aggies his freshman year, went on a mission and now comes back home.
He spent a year at Salt Lake Community College where he led them to the NJCAA National championship. The kid can flat out play.
The leader of this crew is senior point guard Jared Quayle, who scored in double digits in 24 of their final 28 games last year and along with Tyler Newbold won't miss a beat in the backcourt.
In their season opener they rolled into Weber State as a 3 point road favorite and delivered a 66-60 win and now off that tune up game get a crack at their in-state rival Utah.
There is no doubt in my mind that for one of the few times Utah State is flat out the better team and I fully expect them to do just as Idaho did, deliver the outright win.
FREE SELECTION - BUFFALO-MIAMI-OHIO OVERComment -
Predicting a bad night for langerComment -
if the line is -70 1/2, you buy the hook down to -70Comment -
could be another good night for lang. I loved atlanta so I didn't fade there, but did the other 2 games. Didn't fade the free pick since I was already on it. Lang goes 4 and 0 it's looking.Comment -
lang is becoming a legend..Comment -
THURSDAY
Note:
Last night is the way it's supposed to be.
My big TV in the middle had Central Michigan killing Ball State, the one on the bottom right had Utah State battling Utah, and the bottom right had Atlanta pulling away from the Heat in the 4th quarter.
Almost at the exact same time, LeFevour hits Brown for an 82 yard touchdown pass, Joe Johnson hits a big 3, and Utah State takes a halftime lead against Utah.
The night ended with the Hawks easily covering, CMU burying Ball State 100% the way I predicted it, and the gambling gods saw fit to give me a 3 at the buzzer with Utah State.
All adds up to a 3-0 sweep heading into tonights action.
In a good rhythm right now as evidenced by this weeknight college run and the overall NFL run.
Can't argue with the 10-3-1 run in college football Tuesday thru Friday the last 5 weeks. Can't argue with the 8-1-1 run in the NFL the last 2 weeks.
Howl at the moon all you want about Brandon Lang this and Brandon Lang that, but the fact of the matter is I am hot right now. Sizzling hot, and I aim to keep it that way the rest of the year.
Now here is why the Dolphins cover the number tonight.
10 DIME - MIAMI DOLPHINS - (if line is 3, you buy the 1/2 to 3 1/2) - The bottom line is this.
If the Panthers can't run the football against the Dolphins what does that mean?
It means Jake "I love to throw interceptions" Delhomme will have to beat Miami with his arm. Advantage Miami.
Now the AFC and NFC have faced off 29 times this year, with the AFC being a road dog on 11 of those occasions. Guess what the ATS number is?
AFC 7-4 ATS.
Both teams are going to try and run the football and get in play action situations, but for my dollar I believe the Dolphins are going to have more success doing that.
I feel Miami has the better run defense and the numbers show just that allowing less than a 100 yards, while the Panthers give up close to 130.
I know the Panthers have played very well as of late but just when you think you have this team figured out, good old Jake implodes. I am not going to be on the wrong side of that implosion tonight.
If he plays a great game and beats me, so be it. I will take my loss like a man and move on to College football, NBA, and college hoops on Friday and get ready for the weekend.
People are making a big deal out of the loss of Ronnie Brown and I believe it will hurt Miami to a certain degree, but over the last 4 weeks Ricky Williams has actually run for more yards.
I am more impressed with the Dolphins body of work this year as a whole than I am with Carolina as is my feeling the AFC is the superior conference over the NFC, and any time I can get points with the AFC in a battle like this I will gladly take them.
I've maintained for years that when dealing with the Carolina Panthers you go with them as an underdog and against them as a favorite.
Look at this year. Carolina has been favored twice this year and they failed to cover the number both times.
At home versus the Redskins they were laying anywhere from 3 1/2 to 5 and won by 20-17 in a game they should have lost, and 2 games later laying 7 at home to Buffalo they lost 20-9 as a 7 point chalk.
This team has never been able to be trusted as a home favorite and that is exactly the reason why I will gladly take the Dolphins +3 1/2 and watch this game fall right on 3.
FREE SELECTION - COLORADO BUFFALOESComment -
saints pick looks good so far
Comment -
FRIDAY
Note:
All about staying focused.
All about staying in the moment and doing what I've done for so many years and that is win.
Delivering winners that nobody else is delivering.
One of the few guys on this website to have the Dolphins last night when the majority were on the Panthers.
I am really seeing things clearly right now.
Wish I could explain the clarity I have Tuesday through Friday the last 5 weeks, and why it just clicks, and I am really in the zone in the NFL the last 3 weeks, and quite frankly the numbers don't lie.
12-3-1 run the last 5 weeks Tuesday thru Friday. College is 10-3-1 and NFL is now a perfect 2-0 with the Niners last week and Miami last night.
With the win on the Dolphins, I have now pushed the NFL run to 9-1-1 paid and comp plays the last 3 weeks and I am really loving the weekend card.
Now it's time to get the winning Friday night and continue to live and let live.
15 DIME - UTAH STATE AGGIES - Inflation.
Off their huge blowout win at home against Idaho, the linemaker has over-adjusted this number tonight at Utah State.
Lost in the shuffle of Boise State's 63-25 win was the fact Idaho put up over 500 yards total offense.
Idaho had the 17th best overall offense in college football while Utah State brings in the 20th and unlike Idaho having to play at Boise, Utah State gets them in their house.
Over their last 14 games on the vegas board the Aggies are 11-2-1 including a 7-0-1 run as an underdog.
Bottom line for my dollar is I don't trust this Boise State team as far as I can throw them, and asking them to lay this kind of number on the road is downright disrespectful to Utah State.
Utah State has one of the better coaching staff's in college football and I truly feel they will outcoach and outthink the overrated individual on the Boise sideline in Petersen.
I'm going to war with a big home dog I feel can score points and will find a way to stay inside the number tonight.
5 DIME - BOWLING GREEN FALCONS - (If 10 1/2 you buy the half, and lay 10. Never get beat by the hook when dealing with 3, 7, 10, 14, 17) - Long night for Akron.
Tonight is about Tyler Sheehan and Freddie Barnes.
Now I am aware of the good pass defense numbers Akron has, but anybody would have those kind of numbers when you can't stop the run.
Why should teams pass when they can run all over this Akron defense ranked in the bottom 20 of Division One?
I am also aware of the tough run at home for Bowling Green as they have gone 1-3 SU and ATS, but let's examine who those games have been against.
They beat Troy at home to start the year 31-17, and then have lost to Boise State, Ohio and Central Michigan.
Well Boise is ranked inthe top 10 while Ohio and Central Michigan are playing for a shot at the MAC Championship Game.
So as you can see, this is a true step down for Bowling Green at home against a team they can handle and I truly see a 2 touchdown win.
Akron has a true freshman QB on the road against an improving defense, and I just feel everything lines up nicely for Bowling Green at home to get their 6th win and another step closer to bowl eligibility.
It would be a crying shame folks if the nations # 1 wide receiver didn't end his career getting to play in a bowl game but trust me, it's not going to happen.
The Falcons are going to take care of business tonight over Akron, drill Toledo at home to close out the year and at 7 wins, get to go bowling.
Akron may hang around in this game early, much like they did last week versus Temple but just like that game, the cream rises to the top and in this case, it's Freddie Barnes at home.
5 DIME - ATLANTA HAWKS - I said on Wednesday, you don't start rolling into Boston as a double-digit road dog, and beat the Celtics by double digits unless you are playing your best basketball of the year.
I jumped on the Hawks against the Blazers on Monday night, and they got it done for me in OT, and I came right back with them against the Heat and they cruised to a double digit win.
I said going into Monday that Atlanta was on a tear since their double-digit loss at Charlotte, a game I had the Bobcats as a 5 dime winner.
With exception of that no show by Atlanta, they have now covered every single game this year. Think about that folks.
Atlanta has won their 5 home games this year by 11 over the Pacers, 11 over the Wizards, 25 over Denver, 23 over the Hornets, covering the 3 1/2 over the Blazers and the Heat by 15. .
Now they catch the Rockets off a nice win at Minnesota, but I just don't see Houston being able to stay within single digits of this Hawks team.
Atlanta has been good to me, and I truly believe they relish the new found fame as having the best record in the NBA and they will look to keep it that way with another double digit home win and cover.
FREE SELECTION - MEMPHIS GRIZZLIESComment
