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Most of us will likely stay well under the radar with books that were here before DK and will most certainly be here going forward.
It will probably become very well known that the mainstream books like DK are rip offs, but we already know most bettors don't understand that concept and others don't care at all. Let them spend big and grow wildly.
I remember when myspace was big and growing wildly...
Just because they are spending a lot and growing huge market cap wise it doesn't meant they are the best, visionary or leading, or anything of the sort.
Whatever they try, we already saw Vegas to do it decades ago.Comment -
You have absolutely no clue what you are talking about. I don't think you have ever placed a single bet at draftkings.Most of us will likely stay well under the radar with books that were here before DK and will most certainly be here going forward.
It will probably become very well known that the mainstream books like DK are rip offs, but we already know most bettors don't understand that concept and others don't care at all. Let them spend big and grow wildly.
I remember when myspace was big and growing wildly...
Just because they are spending a lot and growing huge market cap wise it doesn't meant they are the best, visionary or leading, or anything of the sort.
Whatever they try, we already saw Vegas to do it decades ago.
Most of draftkings lines are market lines, no different than offshore.
You tried to tell me I couldn't make money betting the wnba with draftkings, I finished up over 40 units.
You know nothing about anything.
The reason people like you make videos about making money betting sports is because you want to convince other people you make money betting sports, since you can't convince yourself
You are a dumb shit.Comment -
Drakftkings non usa sports ML are probably too wide but most stuff no different than bookmakerComment -
Not true.
But if you understand how and why DK puts the lines where they do, and Jersey public books and PA public books do the same, you can take advantage.
For a while, and much of this was doucmented in the play thread as it was happening (remermber, I like to teach real time) we were countering a specific group out of Jersey and PA. I think I got inot this via text with another poster when it was happening as well.
DK didn't know what to do, there were buys on both sides and they weren't calling them up. Multiple bettors on both sides were hitting those books. We did this for a couple of weeks.
My point is that the book didn't know how to react, they are not sophisticated when it comes to some of the betting audience.
So they protected themselves with a wider and wider split.
As big as a handle that they have, they can be manipulated.
They want no part of that action, even if it means a bigger payday in commissions. They should get smarter here though, and I would expect them too, going forward. The issue is the corporate model that won't allow them to do much about it once the book managers do get smarter. (That said, widening the split was there way, at the time, of being able to take the action.)
We dealt with a lot of this when the conglomerates starting taking over Nevada and left the book managers in Reno and Tahoe high and dry during the Warriors/SF Giants championship years. The teams raised a lot of money for the beat up real estate marketplace in the area, but those branched of books taking the local action could do nothing to manage their risk.Comment -
DraftKings has some experts in the trading room, I don’t think it’s in full operation yet but when it is watch out you’ll not be able to beat themComment -
If they are truly experts, then they will welcome action from a range of players.
Not just "a" range of players, but "the" range of players.
That's what experts do. I know plenty of them.
Actions will speak louder than words.
Just ask D2bets. He's on the frontline of some of America's books, he can tell where the experts are and who's just plain scurred.
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My mother and father MAY just make their first bets.....
Caeser's also fell to the corporate model, but luckily I still have connections.
I could not go anywhere in the country and get the 5k free bet under my own name.
It's not that they might not give it to me, it's that I would get slapped on the wrist in Vegas for accepting it.
I mention in my introductory video that some will get to a point where accepting bonuses is simply not part of the play to keep a relationship with a book. If you guys are successful and know how to adjust, do what I said in the video.
Also find friends that have been betting for a couple years, just tossing money at their favorite team, etc, then while they are still betting you can run a program over them. Probably get into that more in some future video.
For those succeeding or on the verge of success and growth, it's going to be tougher to develop those relationships with DK.
I doubt the operators even have a rolodex at those books, bottom line is their hands are mostly tied.
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Right? You get the idea.
We need to be careful of taxable events, but it's possible to make them employees, or something similar. That's down the road.
But we do have to think about some of those things.
This is relatively new in so much of the US, so we can get creative to stay legal.
It would be cool if the Forum had a resident tax advisor and attorney on hand, a discussion between us and them could be very valuable for the some of the community.
I want to do a tax video, but it probably won't apply to too many and I don't want to get into the sticky situation of each state. Nevada is my specialty, and federal requirements (not a tax advisor..lol...but I've been through the ropes when it comes to gambling and taxes.)
I might ask SBR just how deep into that we can get into that subject.Comment -
Yes.
I told that story once.
The auditor, right there in her office, asked me how a marker works.
I told her I basically "borrowed" the money from the casino and lost it on the floor.
So each time I took out a marker, whether I won, lost, or did nothing, I could count it as a gambling loss...huge precedent, for lack of a better word, for me with the IRS.
She literally allowed me to explain the concept of the marker to her.
There was not just sportsbook action there, there was casino action too, markers, etc. grinding out comps. All of it was a bit much for the IRS, lol.
But that was the last time I saw an auditor...a long time ago.Comment -
They wanted records, I had a shit ton of records.
Pretty sure they thought I would be timid or scared and when I offered banker boxes of info, they were the ones thinking "oops"
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Wow. Well it sounds like that might have been pre-internet era, so the process might be a little different now.Comment -
BRAVES +115 in NEW MEXICO if anyone is travelling throughComment -
LOL The tax issue With the USA books is about as moot as anything on earth.
99% of the people lose their ass at gambling, so they don't have to report or deal with taxes.
And if some loser DID get lucky enough to win enough to trigger a taxable event one year,
then I'm sure he'd be thrilled to pay it! just like a big lucky slot winner pays taxes!Comment -
What records. Everything is recorded on the apps and they now all send (some by request) your annual win/loss. No way I'm printing or keeping a record of every single wager I place. Would be insane. Nice for someone who places a few wagers a week. What if you place tens of thousands of wagers in the year. I know what I start the year with, I know what I deposit/withdraw and I know what I end with. What else do I need?Comment -
If your serious the IRS will know it because you keep records of every transaction.
Reports generated by the house aren't recognized by the IRS, that's not to say they aren't helpful, but they aren't official. Maybe where you are and the books you are using it's different., but that would surprise my if they've reached that lelve of reporting.
Your records are official. One of the biggest benefits you have in an audit as a professional gambler are your records of transactions. The auditor will know you are serious. it might sound olds school, but some things never change.Comment -
"professional gambler" ????? R U kidding.... Just a pure hobby where some money was won. I only keep my records by the month....and throw them away....No 10,000 bets or such.Comment -
KVB usa apps non Vegas have end of year reportComment -
But what records? I print out my balance at beginning of the year, balance at the end of year, my deposits and my withdrawals. Doesn't that capture everything? Whatever happens in between is captured by that. I don't need some record of each individual wager. I literally make tens of thousands of them. Each book has a transaction history. It's not like I'm going to the counter in Vegas.Comment -
This is one of the most interesting threads in a while, but the sad truth is that often it gets clustered, because guys like JoeCool get salty and post things like (even though he's right) "This doesn't apply to 98% of betters, as they are nearly all losers." Beyond the fact that that is true and obvious, it just ruins otherwise good threads. People don't post in order to get sidetracked, bored, or distracted ... they post in order to learn or help themselves.
If guys like KVB and me are a few of the 1%, then good, don't worry about the thread, and move on - stop ruining good threads. I want to know seriously the best way to make large cash bets in a manner that drastically reduces my odds of being reported or audited. Of course, I don't do those shitty apps because convenience is for $20 bettors, mostly, and that same convenience, like in all things in the tech age, costs you something (tracking/privacy). It's bizarre that so many people haven't found that out, but the truth is that yes most people around these sites, even people that know something, are $10-$100 bettors. And obviously Uncle Sam or whatever jew of the year/congress is trying to track you doesn't care about some $20 peon.
While upwards of $20k bets would garner more attention than likely they are worth, multiple plays for $5k in a day or cashing them in one day becomes a problem - that's the issue I'm always talking about. In a free country I feel like I should be able to bet between 5-10 and not worry about it one bit, and when I win, be able to walk away with my money without a 15 minute shakedown and paperwork/computer hassle. The people waiting to bet in line behind me don't deserve that, either.Comment -
Last night DraftKings had a promo bet $50 on the Memphis game and anything over 200 total a dollar point that’s tremendous valueComment -
Actually the excess was a free play bonus (win or lose on the wager). Turned out only to be $12, but yeah, it was a good deal. They have stuff like that all the time. Fanduel has free stuff too -- a lot of no risk $10 plays and the like. For the small casual bettor, these are huge to use all of those.Comment -
You can’t go wrong you almost here going to come out ahead at the end of the yearComment -
They all have reports Gold, but are they officially recognized by the IRS? Maybe.
But reports traditionally have not been. Sure, they are helpful, but it's been our experience, through multiple people having audits as well as advice from tax and legal adivosrs, among all of us, that the IRS expects you to keep records. If you're not filing professionally, then this is not as big of a deal.
But if you are filing as a pro gambler, the single most important thing to do is keep records of every transaction, all your bets. There are a number of reasons for this.
Pretty sure I said this already. Consult a tax advisor.Comment
