Raiders win birthday type games
Chargers should win easy
We are due for a damn blowout on a night game
Chargers should win easy
We are due for a damn blowout on a night game
-
-
I agree. Line should of opened at -4 IMO. Already booked the -3. Robert has been an absolute STUD.Comment -
Who did the Charges beat easily this year? Both their wins are by one score.Comment -
Umm
The raiders are one of two undefeated teams and every bit as good as the chargersComment -
plus at this time the 3 is a very weak 3 tooComment -
it open -3-117, it stands now-3-05Comment -
Pound ChargersComment -
The Chargers have an amazing knack for losing games. They have pissed away at least a half dozen games over the last couple years that they easily should have won. Obviously, Herbert's youth is part of it and it does seem to be getting better but I think this line is right about where it should be. The Raiders are a solid team. Personally, I just like the over. Picking a side on this is a total coin toss.Comment -
My stacking percentages forecast has LA winning with 23 points to Vegas' 21 points. The non predictive public gauge shows LA winning 24-23. A variety of forecasts covering a spectrum of handicapping sophistication has this game with similar numbers as those.
There are some groups of market readers, along certain forecast that will trigger Chargers here at -3 and they are betting it, and there is pressure against the Raider moneyline, and the general public is not exactly sold on LAC yet, even if they did beat KC.
When it comes to that moneyline, some teams, when losing a few in a row, will garner mounting pressure to get that win and it will show up in the market. Other teams, like the Raiders, will garner mounting pressure to lose if they have won a few in a row. This will translate to LA moneyline bets not because they favor LA, but because those bettors seek a Vegas failure.
Over the short term some teams the public will support, others they will abandon, it becomes a different story long term with pressures waning as the market tires and then building again.
But don't let that distract you Gold, the UNDER is where the pros are right now.
With a variety of sharp line beating forecasts we are capturing a shit ton of numbers, stacking those percentages even further. Even with a 51.5 line we can get 51, 50, 48, 47, even with some small rounding we can get 44.
The stacking percentages forecast is 57-42-1 against the closing line over the last 100 plays and has won 115 out of the last 200 plays against the Total, a cool clean 57.5%
With these particular numbers captured the win percentage on the Total is even higher among the subset.
There is also evidence that the market has overestimated LA this season when it comes to scoring, even accounting for the noise of opponenets, and while that has lessened to a degree, there is evidence it is still happening.
When it comes to the Vegas, evidence shows they have been underestimated by the market, but to about 1/2 the degree that that LA has been overstimated.
Of course, the NFL is all about those reversals so, sucked into this play or not, we like the UNDER.
Good Luck whatever you bet.
Comment -
Looks easy. They beat kc last time so I can't take them.Comment -
this seems like a chargers win by 1-2 points by last second FG to win
a push on MNF is not what the books are looking for
whose buying the hook?Comment -
After a big dog win against a rival expected to win the division you get let downs
And if the oddsmakers put it at 3...more likely than not home team won't cover
I do lean Chargers but do not like the situation for either teamComment -
Lac's are going to win and cover. they have the better defense by miles, and gus bradley will blitz his old team until his headset breaks, giving up huge chunks at a time. key for me, chargers defense is healthy. major edge. May not be that way on Jan. 9, 2022 in Las Vegas. Tonight that is the key. They will dominate gruden
I love Lombardi vs bradley and can't wait for Staley to smash Gruden with his DComment -
Raiders 29-26 F/OTComment -
LAR won two games in OT Balt and Mia the other win was the hapless Steelers.
LAC beat KC, lost to Dallas by 3 and beat Wash.
SOS is Chargers 4th and Raiders 25th
IMHO: Both numbers are too low....over and Chargers for me.Comment -
Eye test of the LAC offense is not that impressiveComment -
Bottom line totals wise is that every Primetime game that looked like it had Over potential has been Over. 8 for 8 by my count
Nobody thought Over with the Carolina TNF or Jags/Bengals. Nobody should've thought Over last night with Belechik and the rain. The other 8? All Over
Chargers defense scares me a little. They should win the game, but Carr is playing well. Even a game like Dallas/LAC that was only 20-17 was misleading because both had over 400 yards of offense. Do that in Primetime and they somehow go Over 80-90% of the time. Just like Raiders/Baltimore. Most of the Primetime games go nuts 4Q. GB/SF shouldn't have gone Over either but it didComment -
last team with possession wins type of night probably
defenses weakComment -
Can't trust Chargers giving up points. They rarely cover. As an underdog yes take them but not as a favorite.Comment -
jj remember when you lost all that money on the Chargers at the last second??????????Comment -
The line is right where it should be; gun to head, Chargers.Comment -
On Vegas +3 as a contrarian play.
Good Luck, bitches.
Comment -
Good start chargersComment -
JJ knows foozball!! Don't question him and just tail!!
Comment -
Classic Gold thread. This why he gets paid the big bucksComment -
It’s just look too easy some of these do winComment
