the run for faves in the MLB continues on
anyone know the YTD for faves/dogs in MLB?
anyone know the YTD for faves/dogs in MLB?
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Time to start betting dogs...regression coming right?Comment -
arizona diamondbacks lost 19 straight road games will it be 20 monday night at san fran
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Won 4 RL's today. Sweet!Comment -
Yeah I just mentioned this in my picks thread. I bet mainly dogs no wonder I’m doing horrible lately.Comment -
It’s why I haven’t been betting much baseball lately. Too hard to have big days when you have to lay so much damn juice.Comment -
That’s why guys like me lostComment -
Nets and lightening lost. It makes sense. It’s all correlated in a wayComment -
Favs are now 536-396(57.5%) on the year
Last 3 days Favs are 33-11Comment -
Wow. Unders were in the lead a few weeks ago last I checked. Haven't been betting many bases anyway. Looks like scoring is up and all that whining from "have to score runs and hit steroid homers or I won't watch anymore threats type fans" should be put to rest. Has the whining stopped by them? If yes, then they will find something else to whine about. No worries. Baseball is baseball. People LIKE to watch good pitching. To me, the 57% on the faves is about where it should be because of the juice on many favorites and many of those lost. If a -250 loses, then that's like 2.5 dog bets winning. I don't see any regression with that number IMMHO.Last edited by hehfest; 06-14-21, 01:52 PM.Comment -
Again though, I can't ask you to go back and do it by the units of all 396 games that faves lost to see how many units they actually lost. The record can be dropped way down if you factor in juice. This is like Vittard just posting a record. If he went 20-10 but every game he bet was -200 then he broke even so far.............so I don't think there is any correction coming, and if there is, it would be minimal.
33 wins to win 100 on each = 3300
11 loss each dog would be how much of a plus if risking 100 each game for the dog? I would estimate 1800 for dogs. But that's about 75% for faves last 3 days. If you factor in the whole season this way, its not off by much. I've seen many +200 and up dog wins this year..........Last edited by hehfest; 06-14-21, 01:55 PM.Comment -
Overs hit big last week. MLB cracking down on pitchers doctoring the ball. A lot of scrub pitchers coming back down to earth as their spin rate decreases. That may be a trend to follow for a bitComment -
Yes, for the most part, the public has been winning in the non-public or “contrarian” side of the market has been on the decline. My market tracking fund has shown us to a T. We are seeing signs that the market is going to trade sideways for a bit but there is no doubt that over the last week there was a market shake out and I wouldn’t be surprised if the public feels emboldened to bet bigger as they give awau juice in a sideways market.
It’s all a part of the natural give and take of the markets.
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I disagree with Knucklez's numbers. I think he is off by about 50, maybe 35 games after his update.
I have 967 games played, and favorites are currently 554-413.
If a bettor had risked the same unit on every favorite this season he would be down about -27 units over the plays. The Favorites did reach a double bottom and here's the journey that bettor took...
These are just the Favorites and not necessarily a public vs. contrarian look, that is important to remember.
That said, make no mistake, the contrarian crash I have been showing all week is a part of this sharp rise for the favorites this last week.
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I need to let this trend fall back a little bit before I start betting again. I play dogs & the dogs are getting creamed. I’ll throw some small long shot parlays together this week & I’ll have a few fantasy lineups for the US Open other than that I’m not straight betting MLB right now. This trend won’t last forever.Comment -
Good observation.. I track as well..a lot of short heavily public favorites on the board tonight.. personally I see a dog heavy day but wtf do I know besides chief is a bitc hComment -
These aren’t plays yet but Pitt, Balt, colo, angels, philly all fit this moldComment -
9-4 day for faves on MonComment -
I wanted to present the flipside of that favorite chart I posted earlier.
Depending on the line, this is what would have happened if a bettor risked the same unit on every underdog in the MLB up to 6/13/21, 6/14 plays are not included here because they weren't in the other chart.
Depending on the line, the bettor reached a high of about +55 units on May 5th, the season started April 1st. By June 13th the bettor is down about -10 units...
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Unfortunately the f*cken betting market will always adjust and remove any edge before it gets out of hand...Comment -
But is that really what these charts show? Did the market adjust? Or did games just lose/win depening on which side you're on.
A "regression" or better yet jsut a shift, especially a sudden one, of win percentage doesn't necessary equate to the market catching up.
That comes in a comparison of the lines and scores to the probabilities and odds the market hangs. It really is a different set of data.
Don't let the market shake you out of your edges, remember those charts above are every single game of the season.
You likely don't ply your edges on every single game. It's just the nature of the beast.Comment -
I really thought I had D’Backs +1.5 clocked last night. And then the 8th inning……. Ugh
Good stuff, KVB.Comment -
You are the numbers guy so you most likely have better sources than VSIN..I disagree with Knucklez's numbers. I think he is off by about 50, maybe 35 games after his update.
I have 967 games played, and favorites are currently 554-413.
If a bettor had risked the same unit on every favorite this season he would be down about -27 units over the plays. The Favorites did reach a double bottom and here's the journey that bettor took...
These are just the Favorites and not necessarily a public vs. contrarian look, that is important to remember.
That said, make no mistake, the contrarian crash I have been showing all week is a part of this sharp rise for the favorites this last week.
GL with the betsComment -
MLB Non divisional home Favs..
Non Divisional Home favorites are 220-135 (62% +15 units)Comment
