How Good Is Iowa Football This Year??

**Fishhead** · 11-13-20, 02:33 PM

BLM lovers
FUK them
Disgrace

**KVB** · 11-13-20, 02:50 PM

Iowa is 1-2 this year Gold.

The real test is to compare Iowa across metrics to the median of the league or even conference but there just aren't enough games to make the meaningful. It starts with at least 4 completed games.

That said, here are some averages and Overall Rankings for Iowa. Again, rankings are not very meanigful as they are just numbers in order, not really telling us much about the realtive strengths and weaknesses.

	Iowa	NCAAF	Iowa	NCAAF
Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank

Yards/play	5.29	88	4.2	10
Plays/gm	73	38	99	99
Scoring/gm	29.67	52	17.33	20
Yds Pass/gm	220	75	213	46
Yds Rush/gm	166	67	102	21

Comparing two teams statistically means little unless you compare them relative to the league or conference.

But these averages and ranking are often used by less sophistiacated bettors, forcing the book to hang a more average line or, better yet, inciting the books to take a position.

**KVB** · 11-13-20, 02:52 PM

Looks like they might have a stron D this year, but the Michigan St game might carry more weight than it should.

Whenever the wheels come off in a game, we have to treat some of those stats accordingly.

That's why medians will work well, even if we discard some of the highest and lowest stats performances and then figure the median.

**jjgold** · 11-13-20, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by Fishhead

BLM lovers
FUK them
Disgrace

fuk them taking Minny

**Fishhead** · 11-13-20, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Looks like they might have a stron D this year, but the Michigan St game might carry more weight than it should.

Whenever the wheels come off in a game, we have to treat some of those stats accordingly.

That's why medians will work well, even if we discard some of the highest and lowest stats performances and then figure the median.

No, not by Iowa standards

The unit is one of their worst DEFENSIVE clubs in the past 20 years

**KVB** · 11-13-20, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by Fishhead

No, not by Iowa standards

The unit is one of their worst DEFENSIVE clubs in the past 20 years

Yeah, I was literally just looking at the 10 and 20 ranks on defensive in my table above, but no doubt only 3 games, two of which they gave up more than 20 and then the Mich St outlier don't tell the story.

I wouldn't doubt that ranking changes as we move on, even against Minny.

My stacking percentages forecast shows a 31-31 tie giving the edge slightly to Iowa in the moneyline.

The non-predicitive public gauge has Iowa winning 28-26. It's possible that Mich Statge game has Iowa looking better than they are.

**jjgold** · 11-13-20, 04:16 PM

Tough game for Iowa

KVB good breakdowns

**carolinakid** · 11-13-20, 04:18 PM

like i said i have not look at a iowa line for about 23 yrs or so and will never.that goes for all iowa sports here

**pavyracer** · 11-13-20, 04:19 PM

This is the worst Iowa team of this decade. Minnesota should smoke them at home.

**Otters27** · 11-13-20, 04:21 PM

Minnesota not that good right

**Fishhead** · 11-13-20, 04:26 PM

IOWA loaded at the skill positions offensively (RARITY)..........RB's and WR's

For an IOWA team they are subpar on the OL and defensive side of the ball (RARITY)

UNIQUE Iowa club for teams in the FERENTZ era

**pinnacle420** · 11-13-20, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

This is the worst Iowa team of this decade. Minnesota should smoke them at home.

Pavy did you see Minnesota against Maryland? They won’t smoke anyone with any talent

**MinnesotaFats** · 11-13-20, 04:32 PM

Floyd of Rosendale going to Minny

**Orbison** · 11-13-20, 04:35 PM

Iowa looks slightly above average overall and could actually be 3-0, but their QB has made some stupid decisions so far. they've also had a few guys leave the program over the last couple weeks so i'm not sure where the locker room is at currently

the question i have about Minnesota is... have they gotten back all those guys they lost to Covid early on? i think it was at least a couple key guys on special teams and a few on defense?

**Fishhead** · 11-13-20, 04:43 PM

THIS KID OUT OF NEW JERSEY is a threat to go the distance every time he touches the ball..............MEGA-TALENT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Back at practice with the starting group, Ihmir Smith-Marsette has issued a public apology following his arrest on operating while intoxicated charges in the early morning hours of Nov. 1.

“I would like to offer my deepest and sincerest apologies to the University of Iowa and the Hawkeye football team. On Sunday, November 1, 2020, I had a lapse of judgment which resulted in me making a critical mistake that I wholeheartedly regret,’’ Smith-Marsette wrote on his Twitter account.

“At that moment, I not only let my team down, but I also disappointed my family, those who support me and anyone who considers me a role model. Looking forward, I am happy to be back with my team, preparing for the Minnesota game this Friday night and competing for the remainder of the season.’’

After practicing with the scout team last week and serving a one-game suspension, Smith-Marsette returned to his starting roles at wide receiver and as a kick returner on the Hawkeyes’ depth chart this week.

**rm18** · 11-13-20, 04:45 PM

IOwa should score at will, Minnesota offense is very good though they should keep it close.

**pavyracer** · 11-13-20, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by pinnacle420

Pavy did you see Minnesota against Maryland? They won’t smoke anyone with any talent

They had quite a few players out with covid the very first few games. If Iowa was good they would have been favored by 2-3 touchdows. The way the line was set up it tells you that Minnesota is a good team and can hang with Iowa.

**krk1030** · 11-13-20, 04:55 PM

Minnesota has one of the slowest defenses ive ever seen.

And on offense they are a 2 man show. Good RB and 1 good WR. If iowa can stuff the run its going to be a long night for minny

**jtoler** · 11-13-20, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by krk1030

Minnesota has one of the slowest defenses ive ever seen.

And on offense they are a 2 man show. Good RB and 1 good WR. If iowa can stuff the run its going to be a long night for minny

yes and it isn’t really good they only run read plays if u arnt stacking the box then they run, if they arnt sure of lb blitz then they run rb read if blitz and/or man and do a quick pass from it. had better receivers last year if u can stop the run up the middle u win. and they run like 66% of the time

**Fishhead** · 11-13-20, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by krk1030

Minnesota has one of the slowest defenses ive ever seen.

If this is indeed true, IOWA will put up 40 on them

Iowa has more speed on offense, maybe in their history.

**jjgold** · 11-13-20, 05:38 PM

Iowa ML

Final play

**Booya711** · 11-13-20, 05:43 PM

They should both be in the MAC

**KVB** · 11-13-20, 05:54 PM

According to my compiled market info the books have done a good job splitting the money and tickets on the spread here. This includes my analysis of broader group moves across the market.

ck probably would call them steam plays...lol.

The Total is also fairly split among the tickets and public, who love those OVERS, and there has been a little extra money reflecting that love. I can also recognize what I would consider some "sharp" plays on the OVER.

The real story here market wise is that bettors, instead of seeking the +3 for Minny, are taking the Minnesota moneyline.

This analysis can be confirmed, or the other way around, to the multiple ranges of forecasts I produce, including my stacking percentages forecast mentioned above, showing a 31-31 tie, with a slight edge to Iowa on the ml. The market reflects that in the line in the offered price with vig and the action reflects in the value the moneyline offers there on Minny.

It's not a sophistacated market, there haven't been enough games, the books know it too and aren't exactly taking a large position here either way.

I suppose an Iowa 3 point favors the split situation, but it's not really worth getting into at this point in the season.

As we enter the last hour of trading more information will come down the pipeline, I suspect it will confirm what I have here and don't expect the books to do anything more significant. But as volume climbs in the last hour, you never know.

These are two bad teams on a Firday night, let the thing play out and catch a better spot later, in my opinion.

Good Luck whatever you bet.

Also, it's Banana BJ day...

**DrunkHorseplayer** · 11-13-20, 06:21 PM

If Iowa stays COVID-free, they'll be Top Ten.

**KVB** · 11-13-20, 06:55 PM

Going to be cold in Minny tonight, I see 32 degree F.

**Fishhead** · 11-13-20, 07:28 PM

7-0 birds

**pinnacle420** · 11-13-20, 07:31 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

They had quite a few players out with covid the very first few games. If Iowa was good they would have been favored by 2-3 touchdows. The way the line was set up it tells you that Minnesota is a good team and can hang with Iowa.

“if they was good they would be favored by 2-3 touchdowns”...

it’s a road game... in the big ten...under the lights on a cold Friday night... that’s absurd to say bro lol

**Fishhead** · 11-13-20, 07:33 PM

Originally posted by pinnacle420

“if they was good they would be favored by 2-3 touchdowns”...

it’s a road game... in the big ten...under the lights on a cold Friday night... that’s absurd to say bro lol

He's right though, Iowa not good, AVERAGE

A normal Iowa team would be 10.5 fav tonight over this shit team out of MINNY

**stake1** · 11-13-20, 07:38 PM

What a awful, horrible, grade school pass that was! Wow! Can't have that

**stake1** · 11-13-20, 07:43 PM

Terrible third down defense

**Fishhead** · 11-13-20, 08:07 PM

CRAZY ball game in the twin-cities

**Fishhead** · 11-13-20, 09:21 PM

MINNY on the ropes

**Orbison** · 11-13-20, 09:57 PM

Originally posted by DrunkHorseplayer

If Iowa stays COVID-free, they'll be Top Ten.

they'll be 2-2 but could be 4-0

even just moderately better QB play would have them undefeated

last game of season for them is home to Wisky, that would've been a helluva matchup and way to end the year.. but again, their QB play is well below average at the very best and borderline terrible the majority of time

**MinnesotaFats** · 11-13-20, 10:02 PM

Fleck is no better than any bullshit artist.

Row the boat? Stroke my fukking chawk