A team’s past ATS record

[bettingman6]

Is there any shown correlation between a team’s past ATS record and its ATS record for the rest of the year?

In other words, if an NFL team is 7-1 ATS so far, is there any reason to think they’d be better than 4-4 ATS the rest of the year?

ATS records are a good way of showing who was underrated or overrated by bookies earlier in the year. But wouldn’t bookies adjust their ratings so that the teams that were undervalued 4 weeks ago might not be undervalued anymore?

[eaglesfan371]

No, if anything it can be bad to continue taking that side. For example, when a team ALWAYS hits the over on a total and public starts noticing, books will raise the total by a couple points over what their analytics say since they know the public will be heavy on the over next game.

[bettingman6]

No, if anything it can be bad to continue taking that side. For example, when a team ALWAYS hits the over on a total and public starts noticing, books will raise the total by a couple points over what their analytics say since they know the public will be heavy on the over next game.

Yeah, I’ve always wondered if a team might actually become overrated by bookies after covering the spread a few times in a row. Especially if some of the covers are straight-up wins.

[jjgold]

Everything is factored into a line. It’s all you need to know

[asiagambler]

You can always check for yourself. You would need to learn SDQL (not really that hard).

https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query

IMO, more important is ats margin though I'm certain most oddsmakers already incorporate that in their ratings