Tailing Kelly Stewart and taking the Rams

[LT Profits]

I never said ESPN was 100% accurate on everything they reported. I'm just saying I believe 100% of what was reported about what Jason Simbal had said as to where the money is being bet on at his sportsbook. I don't believe everything I read on ESPN, but what reason would they have to lie about what Jason Simbal had said where the money was bet?

It would have been better if Jason Simbal had tweeted that, but he didn't. However, he almost always seem to tweet where the money is for his sportsbook for major events near the game time, so I'm just waiting for that info to come out.

David Purdum on the other hand tweets about where the money is for all books in Vegas in general and that's more useful. I'm just waiting to hear him say that the books needs are the Rams.

No need to wait for Purdum, the Pats are on pace to become the most popular ATS bet in Super Bowl history. Offshore % tracked by Sports Insights is over 80% Pats, no reason to believe Vegas would be much different.

[LT Profits]

No need to wait for Purdum, the Pats are on pace to become the most popular ATS bet in Super Bowl history. Offshore % tracked by Sports Insights is over 80% Pats, no reason to believe Vegas would be much different.

I should add this is true as long as line is less than -3. South Point in Vegas went to -3 a few days ago and that was when Rams money finally came in, forcing them back to -2.5 after just 17 minutes.

[DJK]

I should add this is true as long as line is less than -3. South Point in Vegas went to -3 a few days ago and that was when Rams money finally came in, forcing them back to -2.5 after just 17 minutes.

So, basically the books don't want us to really bet the Rams as they know that's the winning side. Whether that's really true or not, I believe it and that's all that matters for my money.

If I lose, then I lose. At least I'm betting what I see and believe.

[jjgold]

books don't care what you bet on this game, they will have so much action

100k , 200k etc

[bonzaii]

It's not only the sharps but every dick and harry are on the Pats too. I can only hope it stays that way. Then, they will pay off the commissioner too to make sure the Rams win. If the Pats cover, then the commissioner has the power to replay the game and keep on replaying until the Rams win.


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[Snowball]

No need to wait for Purdum, the Pats are on pace to become the most popular ATS bet in Super Bowl history.

That's a ridiculous statement for a side that is currently -3 or less and has only gone to -140 on the ML.
Parabolic hyperbole.

[LT Profits]

That's a ridiculous statement for a side that is currently -3 or less and has only gone to -140 on the ML.
Parabolic hyperbole.

I think you misinterpreted what I said. I said that the Pats are currently receiving 80% of ATS bets, which if it holds would make them the most popular Super Bowl pick ever based on ticket counts. What is ridiculous?

[DJK]

books don't care what you bet on this game, they will have so much action

100k , 200k etc

I know many of you believe that the books' job is to even the action by moving the line and make the juice when there is so much of money bet and it's free money for them.

But, I believe it's more than that as it's impossible to even the action by just moving the line because if they move it too much then they can get middled and they can get screwed. So, they to try to set the line where people will end up betting more on the wrong side, which in this case is the Pats.

As much as lots of you believe the books don't care which side wins, but that's far from the truth. They know more than we do and unless they are totally clueless as to what the outcome would be, they will almost always side more to one side than the other and let the public continue to bet the wrong side. It doesn't mean the books will be right all the time, but they are definitely more right than the bettors; how else do you explain the books losing only 2 out of 27 years?

All I know is that the books are siding with the Rams and that's all there is to it.

[Snowball]

I think you misinterpreted what I said. I said that the Pats are currently receiving 80% of ATS bets, which if it holds would make them the most popular Super Bowl pick ever based on ticket counts. What is ridiculous?

Where exactly are you getting the "ticket counts" ? I understand its not dollar volume...
and where can we get retroactive ticket counts going back to Superbowl I - and how can
any of it be legit when most SB bets in history by far never generate a ticket?

[LT Profits]

Where exactly are you getting the "ticket counts" ? I understand its not dollar volume...
and where can we get retroactive ticket counts going back to Superbowl I - and how can
any of it be legit when most SB bets in history by far never generate a ticket?

Well, most popular since 2002 when Sports Insights stated tracking tickets, you are right that kind of site did not exist before then. So amend my statement to most popular Super Bowl ATS team since 2002.

That said, it is had to imagine a ticket count over 80% in previous years, although I suppose it is possible. And 'ticket count" actually means amount of bets placed online, not literally physical tickets.

[LT Profits]

Well, most popular since 2002 when Sports Insights stated tracking tickets, you are right that kind of site did not exist before then. So amend my statement to most popular Super Bowl ATS team since 2002.

That said, it is had to imagine a ticket count over 80% in previous years, although I suppose it is possible. And 'ticket count" actually means amount of bets placed online, not literally physical tickets.

I should add lot of spotsbook managers Tweet ticket count info too.

[Snowball]

Well, most popular since 2002 when Sports Insights stated tracking tickets, you are right that kind of site did not exist before then. So amend my statement to most popular Super Bowl ATS team since 2002.

That said, it is had to imagine a ticket count over 80% in previous years, although I suppose it is possible. And 'ticket count" actually means amount of bets placed online, not literally physical tickets.

k