A-League Soccer

[Optional]

the match im looking forward too is adelaide sydney i see goals in this game

Le Fondre -110 to score

Sydney/Ov2.5 +190 maybe

[5mike5]

Opti is locked in right now.

[FootyPicks1]

How is Sydney Even money, Adelaide have been shut out by, Perth at home, Victory away and Melbourne City at home, Sydney took 2 slaps in the face at home against Victory and Wellington recently but have bounced back well.... Or is the Over 2.5 at 1.8 the better play? personally love Sydney here.

[cincinnatikid513]

How is Sydney Even money, Adelaide have been shut out by, Perth at home, Victory away and Melbourne City at home, Sydney took 2 slaps in the face at home against Victory and Wellington recently but have bounced back well.... Or is the Over 2.5 at 1.8 the better play? personally love Sydney here.

adelaide been very good on road like the over this game maybe even adelaide steal a win 2-1

[jjgold]

Checking in here seems like a very good thread with a lot of tremendous information on the Australian league

[Optional]

Checking in here seems like a very good thread with a lot of tremendous information on the Australian league

I think we are learning and getting better as we go.

Wondering why I haven't concentrated on this before. It's like the perfect league to cap. So few games and teams. Not many Cups to distract from league. Avg well under 15% draws year after year. Home field advantage not huge factor. Each team plays every other team 3 times each season so extra head to head info compared to major leagues.

[cincinnatikid513]

good for the night owls in the states not much bet at 2am

[Deenoz]

hey Optional, just wondering which stats site did you get draws percentage from?
the site i used has draws as 20+% last 4 seasons. even 27% for 2016/2017 season.

[5mike5]

[Optional]

Week 13

Friday 3.50am ET
Melbourne City FC -1 +105 v Brisbane Roar 1-0

Saturday 1.35 am
Wellington Phoenix -1 -108 v Central Coast Mariners 3-2

Saturday 3.50am ET
Melbourne Victory -105 v Newcastle United Jets 2-1

Sunday 2.00am ET
Sydney FC -110 v Adelaide United 2-1

Sunday 4.00am ET
Perth Glory -1 +125 v Western Sydney Wanderers 4-3

A bit of a fizzer with all three -1 picks pushing. The 2 winners and a 5 leg ML parlay for .5u left me with a 7u profit for the round though.


Round 9: 2-3
Round 10: 4-1
Round 11: 4-1
Round 12: 2-2
Round 13: 2-0-3


Round 15 is over three weeks of mid week games starting Tuesday with Brisbane v Melb Victory

The last game of Round 12 is Wednesday when Melb City visit Central Coast Mariners.


Not feeling a lot of trust in Victory but if they have Honda back in the starting lineup I'll probably bet them. Won't know until close to game time though probably. If not I might take a swing at Brisbane/Draw Double Chance.

And Wednesday I'll probably have MelbCity -1, or ML+Over at a guess.

[Optional]

hey Optional, just wondering which stats site did you get draws percentage from?
the site i used has draws as 20+% last 4 seasons. even 27% for 2016/2017 season.

Sounds like you are doubling it. Two teams get scored a draw for each one.

[Deenoz]

wow second time perth has won after going down 2 nil to a shitter team.

[Deenoz]

sorry mate, what do you mean by "Two teams get scored a draw for each one"

[Optional]

sorry mate, what do you mean by "Two teams get scored a draw for each one"

You are counting twice as many draws as happened if you think there have been over 20% draws in any season ever.

Last season: 270 games, 27 draws, 10%.

I can only guess you are looking at a league table for last season and counting up all draws shown, which would be 54, to get your 20%. But it takes two teams to make a draw.

129 games so far this year, 14 draws = 10.8% so far this year.



10.8% probability = odds of +826 for a draw in this league.

To me, that means there has to be value in the 1 and 2 markets, as we never get offered even half those odds for a draw here.




EDIT: Just realized I am the one doubling the number of games played You are correct Deenoz Guess I have just been lucky so far fading draws so hard

[cincinnatikid513]

i just want to say for the record i really really dislike VAR, hope australia never gets it, terrible for overs when they take goals away i like when refs and side lines guys made mistakes been burned way too much by the VAR

[Optional]

i just want to say for the record i really really dislike VAR, hope australia never gets it, terrible for overs when they take goals away i like when refs and side lines guys made mistakes been burned way too much by the VAR

They do have VAR.

Le Fondre had 2 goals disallowed by it for Sydney last night.

Is it a lesser version of what Europe uses maybe?

[cincinnatikid513]

They do have VAR.

Le Fondre had 2 goals disallowed by it for Sydney last night.

Is it a lesser version of what Europe uses maybe?

i don't know why i never noticed the var, lost 2 games today because of var miss the human element of sports pretty soon we won't even have umpires for baseball will be robots

[Optional]

i don't know why i never noticed the var, lost 2 games today because of var miss the human element of sports pretty soon we won't even have umpires for baseball will be robots

I agree.

Better without it.

[Deenoz]

all good Optional
thought i had missed something when you said draws were well under 15%.
glad we cleared it up.

[badgerguy]

Melbourne +105 this morning?

[Optional]

Melbourne +105 this morning?

This is their 4th game in the last 10 days, and 3rd of those on the road.

They are still missing Honda, Neidermeier and their regular center back.

And despite Brissy not having won in 8 games, they have not looked hopeless. The Victory game tonight will complete the set of all 4 top teams they have had to play in the last 5 games.


I'm leaning Melb Victory still but having trouble pulling the trigger on anything.

[Optional]

Brisbane Roar v Melbourne Victory - Over 1.5 Home Team (Brisbane) Total Goals Over/Under 1.5 @ +140

That's my pick for the record.



I've also taken Toivonen Anytime Goal Scorer +125

[cincinnatikid513]

you got one winner already

[Optional]

you got one winner already

Surprised I havent got both already. Lots of chances for Roar.

[cincinnatikid513]

wow 5-0 beat down

[Optional]

wow 5-0 beat down

Over thought that one!

Small profit still at least.

[Optional]

What are we doing tomorrow with Melb City Mariners?

Just suck up the juice and take the ML, or -1 and risk another bloody push?

[cincinnatikid513]

What are we doing tomorrow with Melb City Mariners?

Just suck up the juice and take the ML, or -1 and risk another bloody push?

ugh the mariners what to do with this team they are horrible probably just take city at -143 good form won 4 of last 5 i just don't know any other bets for this one city -143 city -1 +118

[Optional]

The -1 odds suggest public think this will be closer than it should be.

City are embarking on their killer 10 day run of 4 games that Victory just completed, so the coach might be thinking of resting players too.

After seeing Victory defy all the reasons to think they were slumping tonight, I'm still kind of tempted to go with the -1 still, and bet the quality. Really, there is a bigger quality gap between City mariners than Victory and Roar imho.

Not that City has the depth of quality Victory owns.

[cincinnatikid513]

The -1 odds suggest public think this will be closer than it should be.

City are embarking on their killer 10 day run of 4 games that Victory just completed, so the coach might be thinking of resting players too.

After seeing Victory defy all the reasons to think they were slumping tonight, I'm still kind of tempted to go with the -1 still, and bet the quality. Really, there is a bigger quality gap between City mariners than Victory and Roar imho.

Not that City has the depth of quality Victory owns.

i ll wait to see lineups knowing odds likely go up by game time -155 -160 city

[cincinnatikid513]

one thing like about a league been pretty predictable the good teams win home or away the bad teams lose home or away

[Optional]

I bet Adelaide +190 to beat the Wanderers on Friday early btw.

I really like them in this spot, after going 1-1-1 against other top 6 teams last 3 games the step down in opposition quality on top of the big Perth trip last game and big let down of throwing away a 3-1 lead with 10 mins to go for Wanderers I'll probably addon big once we know lineups.

[Optional]

one thing like about a league been pretty predictable the good teams win home or away the bad teams lose home or away

Yeah. I was looking too hard for reasons that wasn't going to continue in Brisbane tonight

[cincinnatikid513]

I bet Adelaide +190 to beat the Wanderers on Friday early btw.

I really like them in this spot, after going 1-1-1 against other top 6 teams last 3 games the step down in opposition quality on top of the big Perth trip last game and big let down of throwing away a 3-1 lead with 10 mins to go for Wanderers I'll probably addon big once we know lineups.

i'll have to look at that match, do like how adelaide plays well on the road wanderers been really poor and especially at home think u are on the right track there with adelaide

just looked at line u got a really good price i'm seeing adelaide +150

[Optional]

Yeah it has moved to +160 at NEDS where i bet it too.