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  • cincinnatikid513
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 11-23-17
    • 45360

    #71
    we got games coming up less than 13 hours away from wanderers wellington who u like this week opti

    what stands out to me and surprises me line so low is perth sydney over 2.5 only -115. thought it would be a 3 line. both teams score a ton 3 straight overs perth 7 straight over 2.5 for sydney unless im missing something on this game over 2.5 looks very good
    Comment
    • Optional
      Administrator
      • 06-10-10
      • 61702

      #72
      Originally posted by cincinnatikid513
      we got games coming up less than 13 hours away from wanderers wellington who u like this week opti

      what stands out to me and surprises me line so low is perth sydney over 2.5 only -115. thought it would be a 3 line. both teams score a ton 3 straight overs perth 7 straight over 2.5 for sydney unless im missing something on this game over 2.5 looks very good
      Even without these week 12 games being mid week, it seems like a really tricky round to me.

      Wanderers haven't lost to Wellington since 2015, in 8 meetings. But they have only managed to beat Mariners and Wellington so far this year. Can't take them at +110.

      +260 for the draw seems under the odds to me too.

      So I guess by that logic Wellington +240 should be the bet.

      I was leaning the Under 2.5 +120 mainly due to Wellington having been so good in defense recently, only giving up 4 goals in their last 6 matches. Wanderers have given up 13 in the same period though. And Wellington have their regular defensive mid fielder out after a red card last game.

      Neither team has a star goal scorer to try an obvious to score bet.

      I'll probably end up having a late bet on something but only small for interest I think. But really think this match is a pass :\


      Tomorrow, Victory +170 @ Adelaide in the early game seems like the pick of the round to me, but that's a drifting price so money must have come for Adelaide since openers

      Will bet Toivonen to score. Probably first and anytime.


      And Perth +165 v Sydney +165... I thought Perth was a special in this same matchup 3 weeks ago and am stuck with the feeling of just wanting to "stick with red" for another spin. But really can't come up with a lot of good logic to back that. :\ And agree Over 2.5 -115 feels like the books are begging us to be the over for some reason.

      I may not have a serious bet on any of these games.


      At least MelbCity @ Mariners to complete round 12 next Wednesday shouldn't take too much thinking. 2 and over.
      .
      Comment
      • Optional
        Administrator
        • 06-10-10
        • 61702

        #73
        Better make actual picks for the record, not that they mean much.


        Wellington DNB (PK) +140

        Victory +170

        Glory DNB -108
        .
        Comment
        • cincinnatikid513
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 11-23-17
          • 45360

          #74
          Originally posted by Optional
          Better make actual picks for the record, not that they mean much.

          Wellington DNB (PK) +140

          Victory +170

          Glory DNB -108
          like that mel victory pick good price on them tailing also played over sydney perth feels odd to be the line but going with it prob end 1-1
          Comment
          • cincinnatikid513
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 11-23-17
            • 45360

            #75
            all this guy does is win 3-2 wellington
            Comment
            • Optional
              Administrator
              • 06-10-10
              • 61702

              #76
              only had $20 on it so I had a real bet for record, doesn't really count. But I am liking how this is rolling along.

              What do you think about all these 3 and 4 day between matches at the moment?

              "Lucky" round 13 this coming weekend looks so easy I am starting to fear over confidence.

              Every game will be Home win + Over??

              Can you find a dog?
              .
              Comment
              • cincinnatikid513
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 11-23-17
                • 45360

                #77
                Originally posted by Optional
                only had $20 on it so I had a real bet for record, doesn't really count. But I am liking how this is rolling along.

                What do you think about all these 3 and 4 day between matches at the moment?

                "Lucky" round 13 this coming weekend looks so easy I am starting to fear over confidence.

                Every game will be Home win + Over??

                Can you find a dog?
                i like how they are spreading these games out , gives something to bet on late at night here during the week i remember in past used to be like one friday night game then sat and sun

                i agree next week does look good for the home teams and the over i'm going with victory tonight and the over against adelaide
                Comment
                • Optional
                  Administrator
                  • 06-10-10
                  • 61702

                  #78
                  Originally posted by cincinnatikid513

                  i like how they are spreading these games out , gives something to bet on late at night here during the week i remember in past used to be like one friday night game then sat and sun

                  i agree next week does look good for the home teams and the over i'm going with victory tonight and the over against adelaide
                  Oh yeah, I like it too, but haven't followed A League close enough previous years to know if this is normal and how much it has an effect.

                  Round 15 is also like week 12 and played over 3 weeks midweek. And that starts next Tuesday.

                  So we have 6 full weeks, at the height of summer, with half the teams only having 3 or 4 days break each week.


                  Do you think Adelaide is going to score? Not high on Victory scoring 3 against them at home.
                  .
                  Comment
                  • cincinnatikid513
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 11-23-17
                    • 45360

                    #79
                    Originally posted by Optional
                    Oh yeah, I like it too, but haven't followed A League close enough previous years to know if this is normal and how much it has an effect.

                    Round 15 is also like week 12 and played over 3 weeks midweek. And that starts next Tuesday.

                    So we have 6 full weeks, at the height of summer, with half the teams only having 3 or 4 days break each week.


                    Do you think Adelaide is going to score? Not high on Victory scoring 3 against them at home.
                    yah u right maybe the over isnt' a good play adelaide shut out at home 3 of last 5 games, really love victory road form 4 wins 1 draw on road 10 goals scored to 5 given up the over 2.5 is juiced pretty high to -140 victory down to +165 on my site i would think by game time victory will be the betting fav maybe +150 adelaid up to +160
                    Comment
                    • Optional
                      Administrator
                      • 06-10-10
                      • 61702

                      #80
                      It feels like the books put too much value on home field advantage to me.

                      It's not even really the public doing it most games, as betting takes it where it should go 80% of the time (it feels like)

                      If I come across a database of opening odds I'll do some analysis.
                      .
                      Comment
                      • cincinnatikid513
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 11-23-17
                        • 45360

                        #81
                        doesn't look like perth's best lineup in against sydney favor sydney going to play them at pk even worried about the over
                        Comment
                        • Optional
                          Administrator
                          • 06-10-10
                          • 61702

                          #82
                          Originally posted by cincinnatikid513
                          doesn't look like perth's best lineup in against sydney favor sydney going to play them at pk even worried about the over
                          I stuck with Perth PK


                          Adelaide looked in control entire match v Victory.

                          I didn't end up putting in the big parlay btw, lucky.
                          .
                          Comment
                          • cincinnatikid513
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 11-23-17
                            • 45360

                            #83
                            hope i get my over at least lol adelaide game 2 early goals ended 2-0 surely perth sydney wouldnt do that to me
                            Comment
                            • Optional
                              Administrator
                              • 06-10-10
                              • 61702

                              #84
                              Boom. 3-0.

                              Easy over
                              .
                              Comment
                              • Optional
                                Administrator
                                • 06-10-10
                                • 61702

                                #85
                                Week 13

                                Friday 3.50am ET
                                Melbourne City FC -1 +105 v Brisbane Roar

                                Saturday 1.35 am
                                Wellington Phoenix -1 -108 v Central Coast Mariners

                                Saturday 3.50am ET
                                Melbourne Victory -105 v Newcastle United Jets

                                Sunday 2.00am ET
                                Sydney FC -110 v Adelaide United

                                Sunday 4.00am ET
                                Perth Glory -1 +125 v Western Sydney Wanderers
                                .
                                Comment
                                • Optional
                                  Administrator
                                  • 06-10-10
                                  • 61702

                                  #86
                                  Also took MelbCity ML + Ov 2.5 +117 for tonight.
                                  .
                                  Comment
                                  • Mase of Base
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 07-24-12
                                    • 3622

                                    #87
                                    'Nix a little light in midfield for this one with Rufer and Mandi suspended who have both been a big part of this turn around. Means Kopczyński will move into mid (like the Wanderers game and probably Nichols, not a bad combo but the Pole hasn't been great in midfield and was a great fit at the back when there). If it was anyone other than the Mariners I'd be more concerned.

                                    Should get it done though in what might be a very open game. Looks like the Wellington locals are getting behind the team also, I've read ticket sales are very good so that'll be a big boost for the side.

                                    Will tail that City bet for tonight, the Roar will do well to put that midweek implosion behind them to get up for this one. Think I'll sit the rest of the round out looks a little tricky but good to watch on paper, GL.
                                    Comment
                                    • Optional
                                      Administrator
                                      • 06-10-10
                                      • 61702

                                      #88
                                      Mariners have a couple of key mid fielders suspended too. I like Wellington at home on that watered down slick field they like at the moment. I was tossing up the Over 3 at about same odds. Think Phoenix will get that many themselves.
                                      .
                                      Comment
                                      • sportsguy04
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 10-21-08
                                        • 11885

                                        #89
                                        Just bet the overs and fade central coast,
                                        Comment
                                        • cincinnatikid513
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 11-23-17
                                          • 45360

                                          #90
                                          Originally posted by Optional
                                          Mariners have a couple of key mid fielders suspended too. I like Wellington at home on that watered down slick field they like at the moment. I was tossing up the Over 3 at about same odds. Think Phoenix will get that many themselves.
                                          took wellington -1.5 and over 3.5 3-1 4-0 home win against rubbish central coast
                                          Comment
                                          • Optional
                                            Administrator
                                            • 06-10-10
                                            • 61702

                                            #91
                                            Originally posted by cincinnatikid513

                                            took wellington -1.5 and over 3.5 3-1 4-0 home win against rubbish central coast
                                            I'm not going to make same mistake as last night and add an over bet. Just sticking with the -1 but agree -1.5 probably safe and would have been better.
                                            .
                                            Comment
                                            • Optional
                                              Administrator
                                              • 06-10-10
                                              • 61702

                                              #92
                                              Mariners dominate first half and lead 2-0 at half time

                                              This not supposed to be the way it goes today.
                                              .
                                              Comment
                                              • Optional
                                                Administrator
                                                • 06-10-10
                                                • 61702

                                                #93
                                                Penalty Wellington and a red to start 2nd half

                                                Stupid push in back right in front of goal.

                                                Might have a chance yet. Maybe should have taken the Wellington +1.5 -120 at half time.
                                                .
                                                Comment
                                                • Optional
                                                  Administrator
                                                  • 06-10-10
                                                  • 61702

                                                  #94
                                                  15 mins into 2nd half, Wellington lead 3-2
                                                  .
                                                  Comment
                                                  • HurryUpAndDrink
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 08-23-13
                                                    • 13017

                                                    #95
                                                    wow, insane turnaround

                                                    I wasn't amused lol

                                                    Now I think we go 4-2
                                                    Comment
                                                    • cincinnatikid513
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 11-23-17
                                                      • 45360

                                                      #96
                                                      Originally posted by Optional
                                                      15 mins into 2nd half, Wellington lead 3-2
                                                      just need 1 more and hit both 4-2 wellington final be nice,
                                                      Comment
                                                      • cincinnatikid513
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 11-23-17
                                                        • 45360

                                                        #97
                                                        u like the over in victory jets match
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Optional
                                                          Administrator
                                                          • 06-10-10
                                                          • 61702

                                                          #98
                                                          Originally posted by cincinnatikid513
                                                          u like the over in victory jets match
                                                          Really not sure.

                                                          That game smells like anything could happen to me.



                                                          Man I wish Wellington would convert one of these chances soon.
                                                          .
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Optional
                                                            Administrator
                                                            • 06-10-10
                                                            • 61702

                                                            #99
                                                            Victory/Jets Toivonen First Scorer +525 and Anytime Scorer +150
                                                            .
                                                            Comment
                                                            • cincinnatikid513
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 11-23-17
                                                              • 45360

                                                              #100
                                                              Originally posted by Optional
                                                              Vic/Jets Toivonen First Scorer +525 and Anytime Score +150
                                                              i don't get those nice prop offerings at my book , kind of wish i just took wellington -1 now instead of -1.5 got greedy small bet over 3 for me like how jets score better on road than at home 5 of 6 road matches they have scored at least 1 goal, victory 3-1 final will work
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Optional
                                                                Administrator
                                                                • 06-10-10
                                                                • 61702

                                                                #101
                                                                Victory 3-1 would be awesome thanks

                                                                Toivo will surely have at least one of those.
                                                                .
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Optional
                                                                  Administrator
                                                                  • 06-10-10
                                                                  • 61702

                                                                  #102
                                                                  You are welcome to look where I am betting this and give me advice on props.



                                                                  .
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • cincinnatikid513
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 11-23-17
                                                                    • 45360

                                                                    #103
                                                                    i would say bet bobo to score anytime for fc sydney but he's out of the league now seemed like every game he played though he was scoring goals i thought there would be some goals in this game not liking this 0-0 first half ughh
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Optional
                                                                      Administrator
                                                                      • 06-10-10
                                                                      • 61702

                                                                      #104
                                                                      Both teams looking pretty Vanilla and slow.

                                                                      Jets always look Vanilla though. Victory making them look better than usual so far.

                                                                      Not sure if it's just Honda missing or the schedule with mid week matches right now is getting on top of Victory.
                                                                      .
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • cincinnatikid513
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 11-23-17
                                                                        • 45360

                                                                        #105
                                                                        the match im looking forward too is adelaide sydney i see goals in this game
                                                                        Comment
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