Santana may be a legend, but there is something wrong with his arm...
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i like but not rays and col underOriginally posted by TheIntegrityKidComment -
Yes they do have bad times, but all season? his whip this season is a sky high like when he first came into the major leagues. something is wrong with him lately.
And when im capping this, i look at that yankees game as a mistake, i dont even let that enter my head, bad game no biggie. But his Whip for the season is still a disgrace
Im stick with over 5.5 first 5...Lakerboy, i have to go against you, sorryComment -
we dont have to do them then... i want everyone to be happy with every selection...
cubs, reds, nyy-fla under does look good
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Originally posted by Minkus
cool play it lets see what happensComment -
any other games that stick out at you guys??? we all seem to love the cubbies
and razz... are u with us buddy? getting some grub in???
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cubs ML
Red ML
TOOO chalky for me...ill look into the over/under for those games..Comment -
we can always play the cubs run line... that has to be good... altho razz will tell us that home run lines arent that good, so maybe we shouldnt... but lilly vs ohka... that has to be screaming for RL
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I'm here. Minkus, I like the idea of looking for value and finding games with dogs or closer to even money. That's the correct strategy for baseball handicapping.
TIK, I give you a lot of credit. I think you sniffed out the trap in both of those NY games. Some people see value, I see something suspicious.Comment -
idk...im going to watch tv and clear my mind...ill be back later...if not later...tomorrow morningComment -
Originally posted by Razz_Donkey
So leave both NY games alone???
The NYY-Fla under has to be VERY appealing given that it's burnett vs johnson
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Braves-BoSox over 8.5? Lowe vs Beckett... Braves bats are heating up and Boston has plenty of fire power
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i dont understand why everyone likes to compare pitcher vs pitcher and expect a either over/under or win lose...they dont pitch the whole game!
what dont people get?
or is it me????Comment -
These guys don't like TB but they are the underdog in a game I think they should be the fave... Not sure how line movements go, but this one could switch faves by morning...
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I think we missed the boat here, line is already down from 8.5 to 8. Plus, its gonna be hot and humid down there tomorrow, a hitters dream. have you caped the game to show a projected run total?Originally posted by TheIntegrityKidComment -
Originally posted by Minkus
Well if you have a great starter, he could hold a team to 1 or 2 runs over 6 or 7....
that minimizes a chance that the over will hit... I realize bullpens come into play, but the starter pitches the majority of it--- and if we have a fairly good idea how the starters will do, we can get a good handle on how the over/unders will play out...
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well, minkus' fave site, cleanuphitter has it at 10.5... with the marlins winning... maybe we should look at the over...
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hard for me to think this potential pitching gem of a game will go over tho...
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Bullpens and starters are both important. The starter becomes more important if they have shown that they can go the distance and have the stamina. Weather is also important, rain delays can take a starter out early if he has to sit with a cold arm for too long.
TIK, I agree about TB. Its a worthwhile thought to play on the side, but its a bit risky for the parlay IMO.Comment -
Alright... well let's leave it out of the parlay then.. I want minimal risk... or the least amount of risk everyone else wants..
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If we wanna minimize risk, we should have the Cubs and Reds in the parlay, despite the chalk... Neither is -200 or worse so it's not that bad...
We could always have a third play either be a dog we like, or something less chalky, like an over/under..
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We should examine the SFG/TEX game. I'm seeing some funny line movement here against SFG with Cain on the mound which doesn't make a lot of sense.
Something's up.
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alright..ill see what i can find on tex sf
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It doesn’t appear things will get much better for the Rangers on Saturday night with Derek Holland (1-4, 6.63) making his fifth start of the year. The rookie southpaw has lasted just five innings twice in his last five starts. Holland is 0-5 with a robust 8.50 ERA. Despite the high ERA, Holland has seen the ‘under’ go 3-1-1 in those recent appearances.
The Rangers will have their work cut out for them as San Francisco will send Matt Cain (9-1, 2.39 ERA) to the hill. Cain has practically been an automatic win machine for the Giants as they’ve won his last eight starts. He’s coming off of a complete game performance where he gave up one run on four hits in a 7-1 win as a $1.45 home favorite against the Athletics on June 14.
You can understand why LVSC installed the Giants as $1.65 home favorites with a total of eight when you consider the information on both pitchers.
All the signs point to San Fran getting the upper hand in this contest, including the fact that they have won all seven head-to-head meetings with the Rangers in Northern California. The ‘under’ is 5-2 in that stretch as well.
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Sf and the under?
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Why is Cain, at 9-1 not a -200 favorite at home? I see -146 at some books, does seem like a reasonable line to you?Originally posted by TheIntegrityKidComment -
you're right... but do you trust the tex rook?
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Not really, but I think its worth watching this line. Its probably a good one to just leave alone, should be interesting to see what happens in this game.Originally posted by TheIntegrityKid
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lol at this rate... we are gonna leave EVERY game alone..
we should be able to make some calls... I understand Cubs and Reds may be too chalky, but if they are gonna be winners, why not back em and find a 3rd play that's a lil less chalky? Maybe even a dog play.
I think TB is the best dog play of the day... This is the end of Johan for this year...
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LOL, yeah I don't mean to keep suggesting to avoid games, but that is often the case. Books aren't gonna give you to many good opportunities per day. I'm down to take Lakerboy's picks of CUB and CIN pending how the line moves in the morning. Third play can be anything. Let me look again. You got any dogs that you especially like for tomorrow?Comment -
TB...
i know people are gonna object cuz they love the mets... but i have to think tampa is gonna win fairly easily vs a slumpling johan
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baltimore should be looked at too...
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TIK, I like TB as well. Something is certainly wrong with Johan, he's trying to pitch through an injury, if I had to guess. He was getting some of the highest lines in the game, and a week ago he comes out as a small dog. Even I was fooled then, and bam NYY light him up for 9 earned. Now he's back home, and only a slight favorite. I call BS here. Lets see where this one sits in the morning and if the public hammers it or not, we should gain a lot of info from that.
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Alright, works for meOriginally posted by Razz_DonkeyTIK, I like TB as well. Something is certainly wrong with Johan, he's trying to pitch through an injury, if I had to guess. He was getting some of the highest lines in the game, and a week ago he comes out as a small dog. Even I was fooled then, and bam NYY light him up for 9 earned. Now he's back home, and only a slight favorite. I call BS here. Lets see where this one sits in the morning and if the public hammers it or not, we should gain a lot of info from that.
I'm about to get offline here... Prob won't make it for the early morning tho
So if you guys decide to roll with Chicago, go ahead and lock something up. I'll prob just be awaking up when the Cubs play.
Will try and make it on before the first round of 4et games tho. In the event that I'm not here, feel free to lock up whatever plays are liked by most and I'll roll with whichever ones I don't miss out on.
I'm hoping to be on before the 4et games tho as there is good value in them.
Alright well, talk to ya tomorrow Razz and I hope to come back on in the early afternoon to a whole lotta baseball parlay convo!!!
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TIK, I'm not sure about Baltimore. There seems like there is value, but Happ has been pretty good all year. I'm just not sure I want to fade Philly to lose their 5th straight game. Unfortunately it looks like the majority of lines for tommorow are rather chalky. Only a couple of even/close games. Lets sit on it for the night and see what the lines have done in the morning. Looking forward to see what we come up with. The depth and detail here is amazing, its really helping me to work with you guys. Sleep well, and lets get us a winner.
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