Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

DoctorStrong · 03-15-20, 03:36 PM

futures open soon i say down a bit but nothin too crazy

milwaukee mike · 03-15-20, 04:18 PM

another rate cut! on a sunday

d2bets · 03-15-20, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

another rate cut! on a sunday

Will that actually help the market? How much does it really mean at this point?

Only thing that matters is how long the near-total-shutdown persists. 2 weeks? 4 weeks? 8 weeks? 12 weeks? 24 weeks?

homie1975 · 03-15-20, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by DoctorStrong

futures open soon i say down a bit but nothin too crazy

Will be bright green imo

milwaukee mike · 03-15-20, 04:46 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Will that actually help the market? How much does it really mean at this point?

Only thing that matters is how long the near-total-shutdown persists. 2 weeks? 4 weeks? 8 weeks? 12 weeks? 24 weeks?

i agree

my guess is the market is pricing in 6-8 weeks

d2bets · 03-15-20, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

Will be bright green imo

S&P 500 at 2711. What is the near-term upside vs. downside? I mean I can't imagine we see 3,000 until and unless we get safely yo the other side of this, right? But the downside has still got to more if shit goes to hell in a handbasket and in that case there should be support in the 2000 to 2100 level. That's down more than 25%. I mean, if we see a pop Monday toward 2,800, don't you have to consider selling, with the risk far greater than the reward? Or am I wrong?

d2bets · 03-15-20, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

i agree

my guess is the market is pricing in 6-8 weeks

6-8 weeks is pretty bad. 4 would be a whole lot better to at least get back to semi-normalcy. Mid-April.

grease lightnin · 03-15-20, 05:05 PM

Futures down 800

d2bets · 03-15-20, 05:11 PM

Originally posted by grease lightnin

Futures down 800

Kind of figured. Risk/reward just not there right now.

milwaukee mike · 03-15-20, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Kind of figured. Risk/reward just not there right now.

the risk/reward is on the corporate bond side

amc (movie chain) 7% bonds trading for 50, that's 14% and even if they go bankrupt you probably get close to even
lot of safer real estate stuff paying 10%+

milwaukee mike · 03-15-20, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

6-8 weeks is pretty bad. 4 would be a whole lot better to at least get back to semi-normalcy. Mid-April.

mid-april would be a stretch. at bookmaker the bet on games before may 1st is NO -375

milwaukee mike · 03-15-20, 05:22 PM

limit down

we could see another black monday

buried even deeper on my hotel/casino stocks

d2bets · 03-15-20, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

mid-april would be a stretch. at bookmaker the bet on games before may 1st is NO -375

Oh yeah, baseball definitely not before May 1. But I mean schools, restaurants, travel, Disney, offices, shit like that. April 13 would be good. It obviously won't be everything all at once.

d2bets · 03-15-20, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

limit down

we could see another black monday

buried even deeper on my hotel/casino stocks

Is that what you see now or a prediction?

milwaukee mike · 03-15-20, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Is that what you see now or a prediction?

right now the futures are limit down

homie1975 · 03-15-20, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by grease lightnin

Futures down 800

Implied open -1200. I'm very surprised

grease lightnin · 03-15-20, 06:31 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

Implied open -1200. I'm very surprised

I posted that soon after the open. Limit down hit pretty fast.

Why are you surprised?

Bostongambler · 03-15-20, 06:31 PM

With all businesses going into lockdown I can’t see how it’s up.

HockeyRocks · 03-15-20, 06:32 PM

Another interest rate cut that from the get go was going to do nothing and that didn't take long to show that.
An interest rate cut will not cure this virus.
An interest rate cut will not send you out the door and spend money at movie theaters, restaurants, sporting events, concerts and on and on.
Now that the Feds have no powder left to help combat the recession that will be here soon, we are in trouble.....jmo...

HockeyRocks · 03-15-20, 06:33 PM

Originally posted by grease lightnin

I posted that soon after the open. Limit down hit pretty fast.

Why are you surprised?

Exactly, why is anyone surprised...

HockeyRocks · 03-15-20, 06:38 PM

Most of the big banks have announced they will suspend share buy back programs through Q2 2020.. OUCH!!!!!

Black Coffee · 03-15-20, 07:05 PM

Pandemic + Lockdown + No spending + Lost jobs = new reality for the markets

Lots of businesses going under in Q2.. Damn!

Bostongambler · 03-15-20, 07:11 PM

The not spending is what’s going to hurt. However who doubts the market will come back strong at some point. Hence, everything is at a bargain price.

Shafted69 · 03-15-20, 07:14 PM

How will zero interest rates help dead people or unemployed people.

Bostongambler · 03-15-20, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by Shafted69

How will zero interest rates help dead people or unemployed people.

Pay less for a casket

floki · 03-15-20, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by DoctorStrong

futures open soon i say down a bit but nothin too crazy

S&P futures limit down at the open.

Emily_Haines · 03-15-20, 07:24 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

right now the futures are limit down

why not just buy some puts or short the market and get rich?

JIBBBY · 03-15-20, 07:25 PM

Just keep investing in the solid stocks that dropped the most.. They will all rebound when this Corona panic selling shiit is over.. Economy still strong for now..

d2bets · 03-15-20, 07:31 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Just keep investing in the solid stocks that dropped the most.. They will all rebound when this Corona panic selling shiit is over.. Economy still strong for now..

Not necessarily the ones that dropped the most. Buy the ones that you know will easily survive this and will be able to capitalize on new trends created. Tech will bounce back fast.

milwaukee mike · 03-15-20, 07:31 PM

Originally posted by Emily_Haines

why not just buy some puts or short the market and get rich?

what is fair value? nobody knows

if the market is down 2000 tomorrow that just offsets fridays gains

and i'm already rich, i thought you knew that

homie1975 · 03-15-20, 07:31 PM

Originally posted by grease lightnin

I posted that soon after the open. Limit down hit pretty fast.

Why are you surprised?

I thought the market would react positively to a full point rate cut. It seems like a highly emotional reactive market and I thought it would light up in green +400ish with the bigger bump tomorrow when the Congress signs the bill.

grease lightnin · 03-15-20, 07:31 PM

Originally posted by Emily_Haines

why not just buy some puts or short the market and get rich?

Because the fed will wipe you out.

milwaukee mike · 03-15-20, 07:35 PM

every day last week the market had a 5% or more swing

sometimes decades go by without a 5% daily move, and we had 5 in 5 days... unprecedented stuff here

JIBBBY · 03-15-20, 07:37 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Not necessarily the ones that dropped the most. Buy the ones that you know will easily survive this and will be able to capitalize on new trends created. Tech will bounce back fast.

Banks will work with Companies, Government help on the way.. People still need their jobs.. Most big companies if not all I think will survive this and rebound.. Stocks that went down 50% or more will go right back up 50% in the end.

Mike Huntertz · 03-15-20, 07:41 PM

The end is nowhere in sight.....always as usual..... timing!

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Banks will work with Companies, Government help on the way.. People still need their jobs.. Most big companies if not all I think will survive this and rebound.. Stocks that went down 50% or more will go right back up 50% in the end.