What Book will expose the first NE-6 1/2?

[ABEHONEST]

It may be heading that way, but will it be at 6 1/2 by kickoff? I have serious doubts that will happen.

[jjgold]

Bookmaker or BoDog

[firedawg]

Won’t dip below 7

[Brutus84]

Is this all because of Brady’s hand? I’m tempting to unload on ML now

[LT Profits]

None probably.

[bonusguy]

Is this all because of Brady’s hand? I’m tempting to unload on ML now

just take NE +100 to win it all

if his hand is fine then they will win it

[ABEHONEST]

just take NE +100 to win it all

if his hand is fine then they will win it

I didn't see a even money?

[bonusguy]

nearly every book has NE future at +100

[KVB]

It's going to be tough to get to -6.5. If so, I couldn't imagine it staying for long.

Is this all because of Brady’s hand?...

No. Just because news appears timed with movement doesn't mean causation.

In fact, with sports, it rarely does.

For this example, it might be more precise to say it's all because of the movement to 7.5 that sent it to 7, not the news (or lack thereof) about Brady's hand.

Those who aren't sure about the why of the movement or/and are lazy in critical thinking will settle with the idea that it's a little of both that moved the line.

Those guys also get their news at the water cooler.

[Underdog5229]

I doubt any book wants the action they will get at -6 1/2 to be honest. That line will get smashed if it dropped below a TD and would almost certainly be drove right back to 7 or 7.5 within minutes. If bookmaker drops to -6.5 im hitting it hard and throwing it in a large teaser as well.

[ABEHONEST]

nearly every book has NE future at +100

I must have the wrong Book?

[ABEHONEST]

I doubt any book wants the action they will get at -6 1/2 to be honest. That line will get smashed if it dropped below a TD and would almost certainly be drove right back to 7 or 7.5 within minutes. If bookmaker drops to -6.5 im hitting it hard and throwing it in a large teaser as well.

If you like 6 1/2 that much why not buy the 1/2 point?

[Brutus84]

Games off at bookmaker

[Bostongambler]

Saw some spots at 360 ML now on Pats . Also some shops are still using 9. Big delta for that price imho

[juicername]

If you like 6 1/2 that much why not buy the 1/2 point?

This. Pinnacle has Pats -6.5 at -131.

[pavyracer]

The opening line was wrong. Jaguars will cover easily. The real question is can they win?

[shocka1212]

idk but I feel like jags are taking this game....

[LT Profits]

If you like 6 1/2 that much why not buy the 1/2 point?

You can't just routinely buy onto number you want, that gets way too expensive unless you can get -6.5 at -115 or less.

[LT Profits]

This. Pinnacle has Pats -6.5 at -131.

Case in point, not worth laying that much for a spread, -131 makes the breakeven point 57%.

[pilebuck13]

LT stop using logic here.

[LT Profits]

LT stop using logic here.

[funnyb25]

[pilebuck13]

pats will commit bloody murder on Sunday in my opinion. Bortles will look like a scared child. Pats role. Brady is like a brett farve bullet proof..unless he broke his fukin hand which he obviously didn’t this is a non issue.

[ABEHONEST]

Case in point, not worth laying that much for a spread, -131 makes the breakeven point 57%.

Break even?
Just make sure, if your're buying that 1/2 point, you know exactly what you're doing. Then, why worry about juice not lost?
* or, merely, do like someone said; stop thinking logically and go with the world champs and it will probably be a non-sweat wager you will win.

[LT Profits]

Break even?
Just make sure, if your're buying that 1/2 point, you know exactly what you're doing. Then, why worry about juice not lost?
* or, merely, do like someone said; stop thinking logically and go with the world champs and it will probably be a non-sweat wager you will win.

I ALWAYS look at things from a Long Term perspective, and making a bet that requires better than a 57% ATS to profit is not appealing at all. If you are that confident, just lay the 7. BUT as I said, you may also get lucky if this goes to say -7 +100, making the buy to -6.5 cheap and reasonable.

[LT Profits]

if your're buying that 1/2 point, you know exactly what you're doing. Then, why worry about juice not lost?

That is like saying there is no juice when you win, an expression I can't stand.

There is no human being on earth that wins 100% of the time, which is what it would take to avoid juice. And rest assured, books know what they are doing when juicing point buys, if you continuously lay heavy juice to buy, you will lose in the long run no matter how great any one bet may look.

[grease lightnin]

LT dropping straight knowledge

I know these things yet still don’t follow them to a tee.

I have been winning but it is only a matter of time for me

[grease lightnin]

I won’t buy to -130 but i will hit -120 from time to time on key numbers

[ABEHONEST]

I ALWAYS look at things from a Long Term perspective, and making a bet that requires better than a 57% ATS to profit is not appealing at all. If you are that confident, just lay the 7. BUT as I said, you may also get lucky if this goes to say -7 +100, making the buy to -6.5 cheap and reasonable.

Well, your way may work for you but I see the psychology of each team coming in to being quite important. Over studying a game can get you confused causing you to miss some finer details.
And being even more realistic; lady-luck makes you a winner or loser more often than any intense and long scrutinizing has on the effect or outcome of any game.
* For instance: Look how the last two NCAA football championship game's ended with 1 minute left in the game. No one person in that stadium had a clue which team would win with 1 minute left in either game.

[Sam Odom]

LT dropping straight knowledge

always...

[LT Profits]

I won’t buy to -130 but i will hit -120 from time to time on key numbers

Going from -7 to -6.5 -120 is not terrible at all in NFL, -7 -110 is roughly equivalent to -6.5 -124.1. I personally wouldn't go higher than -115 to leave a buffer, but that's just me.

[LT Profits]

Well, your way may work for you but I see the psychology of each team coming in to being quite important. Over studying a game can get you confused causing you to miss some finer details.
And being even more realistic; lady-luck makes you a winner or loser more often than any intense and long scrutinizing has on the effect or outcome of any game.
* For instance: Look how the last two NCAA football championship game's ended with 1 minute left in the game. No one person in that stadium had a clue which team would win with 1 minute left in either game.

Nothing you said here changes the pre-game basic math. All that you can do before the game is put yourself in the best position to win long-term, obviously you have no control over what then happens on the field.

One caveat is live betting with inefficient markets, but I do not want to get involved with that because I DO have a life.

[grease lightnin]

LT What Abe is saying is buy points, but just MAKE SURE you WIN those games.

As as long as you don’t lose those bets you are golden

[LT Profits]

LT What Abe is saying is buy points, but just MAKE SURE you WIN those games.

As as long as you don’t lose those bets you are golden

Just Pound the Winners!

[Sam Odom]

HRWager has -7 1/2 (-105)