New Orleans at Carolina - Pick and Write-Up

[2daBank]

this is what you said banker. Nothing disrespectful just disagreeing. Typical response from OP though

I'm never disrespectful when discussing a game, I'm not a big enough jerkoff (like some) to think my opinion is anything more than just that a opinion! and in most cases I'm interested in what others have to say. .

Unfortunately some ppl so insecure they take disagreement as some kind of attack on them and fly off the handle instead of having a intelligent discussion, you know like what this forum supposed to be about!! If that the case maybe they shouldn't start individual threads about every freaking game!!

Still trying to wrap my head around this statement "clearly value subjective cause I see none in panthers" somehow taken as calling anyone's opinion a joke or any such thing???!??!! I mean 1st thing I said was it was subjective, not anyone who doesn't agree w me a moron, joke, or any such thing!!

[Booya711]

I'm never disrespectful when discussing a game, I'm not a big enough jerkoff (like some) to think my opinion is anything more than just that a opinion! and in most cases I'm interested in what others have to say. .

Unfortunately some ppl so insecure they take disagreement as some kind of attack on them and fly off the handle instead of having a intelligent discussion, you know like what this forum supposed to be about!! If that the case maybe they shouldn't start individual threads about every freaking game!!

Still trying to wrap my head around this statement "clearly value subjective cause I see none in panthers" somehow taken as calling anyone's opinion a joke or any such thing???!??!! I mean 1st thing I said was it was subjective, not anyone who doesn't agree w me a moron, joke, or any such thing!!

Thomorino is the new resident SBR clown....shares it with that puto CWD

[thomorino]

I'm never disrespectful when discussing a game, I'm not a big enough jerkoff (like some) to think my opinion is anything more than just that a opinion! and in most cases I'm interested in what others have to say. .

Unfortunately some ppl so insecure they take disagreement as some kind of attack on them and fly off the handle instead of having a intelligent discussion, you know like what this forum supposed to be about!! If that the case maybe they shouldn't start individual threads about every freaking game!!

Still trying to wrap my head around this statement "clearly value subjective cause I see none in panthers" somehow taken as calling anyone's opinion a joke or any such thing???!??!! I mean 1st thing I said was it was subjective, not anyone who doesn't agree w me a moron, joke, or any such thing!!

Lol, you said you don't know how anyone could find value betting Carolina at -6 - that clearly suggests you think the pick is a joke - is english your second language.

[2daBank]

Looks like about 60% of straight bets and 80% of moneyline bets on the Saints.

Are you implying this means anything or just pointing it out?

[thomorino]

Are you implying this means anything or just pointing it out?

I don't think it means anything in terms of the result but a half point line move when 80% of the action is coming in on the Saints moneyline suggests the books do not think this action is sharp - obviously that may or may not mean anything.

[A4K]

Lol, you said you don't know how anyone could find value betting Carolina at -6 - that clearly suggests you think the pick is a joke - is english your second language.

That last sentence. Read it over and over until it sets in.

[2daBank]

Lol, you said you don't know how anyone could find value betting Carolina at -6 - that clearly suggests you think the pick is a joke - is english your second language.

There ya go again acting like a ass. I said it was obviously subjective cause I think value on other side. Nowhere in that statement is there any kind of slight, judgement, or disrespect of anyone's opinion on the other side. You have issues.

[Booya711]

Morino has zero clue what he is doing...

[thomorino]

There ya go again acting like a ass. I said it was obviously subjective cause I think value on other side. Nowhere in that statement is there any kind of slight, judgement, or disrespect of anyone's opinion on the other side. You have issues.

LMAO, ok dude, you get in a conversation in real life and tell someone after they tell you their opinion that you don't see how anyone could have that opinion - but its subjective.

[2daBank]

Morino has zero clue what he is doing...

I think ive figured out the problem!!

most of us understand all this is nothing more than opinion and nobody is Necessarily right or wrong cause nobody really knows wtf gonna happen.

Sadly it appears some have delusions of grandeur and think anyone who disagrees with their infallible opinion clearly must be talking down to them cause that is what they do when they disagree.

It's like Napoleon complex except has nothing to do with height. Lol

[thomorino]

I think ive figured out the problem!!

most of us understand all this is nothing more than opinion and nobody is Necessarily right or wrong cause nobody really knows wtf gonna happen.

Sadly it appears some have delusions of grandeur and think anyone who disagrees with their infallible opinion clearly must be talking down to them cause that is what they do when they disagree.

It's like Napoleon complex except has nothing to do with height. Lol

LMAO, I don't have any delusions, I just think you are an asshole. Are you really so stupid you don't get how saying you don't know how anyone could think there is value is not saying the pick is stupid can't help you.

[grease lightnin]

Mental midget

[downsouth]

does anybody here actually know how to tell if the panthers -6 has value?

[thomorino]

does anybody here actually know how to tell if the panthers -6 has value?

lol, Its week 3 - this isn't an exact science - the best way to tell if the line was right is to watch the game.

[downsouth]

lol, Its week 3 - this isn't an exact science - the best way to tell if the line was right is to watch the game.

xxxxx...wrong. my question was does anyone know how to tell if Carolina -6 has value? not if the line is right or anything to do with science.

[thomorino]

xxxxx...wrong. my question was does anyone know how to tell if Carolina -6 has value? not if the line is right or anything to do with science.

I disagree with you, but I would argue though that another way of telling if a line has value before the game is to look at what the line was before the season started and look at the line now and see if the move is justified. In my opinion the Saints defense is bullshit and missing Armstead, Cooks, and Snead is a big deal.

[KVB]

lol, Its week 3 - this isn't an exact science - the best way to tell if the line was right is to watch the game.

No, this is not the best way to ascertain value in the market. This is a terrible way. Unless you are quantifying your information while watching, or are an extremely gifted subjective bettor, trying to figure out fair lines won't be possible.

[KVB]

does anybody here actually know how to tell if the panthers -6 has value?

It’s only week 3 and we truly need 4 weeks of data to ascertain the relative market value around the league. That said here’s a solid guideline…

The sharpest forecast I can make gives Carolina the win with 28 points to New Orleans’ 16 points. This will trigger a long term buy on Carolina up to -9.5 points but not -10. With the 44 point prediction, an Under buy is triggered down to 47.5, but not 47.

The stacking percentage forecast gives Carolina the win with same 28 points to New Orleans’ 13 points.

The non-predictive public gauge shows Carolina winning 27-23; the public has it a bit closer.

This early public assumption might explain what appears to be a low line on Carolina with these numbers. The agreement in the forecasts and gauge, with this low line, could present a danger to the Carolina moneyline.

Both the side and Total have moved early towards the forecast but in all honesty we shouldn’t see too much of that type of market moving money until weeks 4 and then in full force in week 5.

That said the line seems little low and could move toward -7 or even -7.5.

[thomorino]

No, this is not the best way to ascertain value in the market. This is a terrible way. Unless you are quantifying your information while watching, or are an extremely gifted subjective bettor, trying to figure out fair lines won't be possible.

I think your confusing what I'm saying. I am not saying the result shows whether or not the line was correct, anyone can win or lose a game because of a number of factors. Injuries, luck, weather, and many other factors. I'm saying that when you watch the game and see how the teams matchup and play you can get a sense for what the line would be if the 2 teams played again on the same field.

[downsouth]

I disagree with you, but I would argue though that another way of telling if a line has value before the game is to look at what the line was before the season started and look at the line now and see if the move is justified. In my opinion the Saints defense is bullshit and missing Armstead, Cooks, and Snead is a big deal.

Plain and simple. The value of Carolina -6 is determined by what the line is at close. If you hold a ticket with Carolina -6 and it closes at Carolina -7 then you have "value" in your ticket as it is 1 point better than market close. If you play Carolina -6 and line close Carolina -4 then your ticket has no value. Now it may win but in an individual capacity or even over a small sample size but I have yet to find anyone consistently not getting +EV on the majority of their plays that is winning this game long term.

[thomorino]

Plain and simple. The value of Carolina -6 is determined by what the line is at close. If you hold a ticket with Carolina -6 and it closes at Carolina -7 then you have "value" in your ticket as it is 1 point better than market close. If you play Carolina -6 and line close Carolina -4 then your ticket has no value. Now it may win but in an individual capacity or even over a small sample size but I have yet to find anyone consistently not getting +EV on the majority of their plays that is winning this game long term.

I hear what you are saying but a couple points. First, the public makes up the majority of the action in the NFL so lines are designed to split the action not split the outcome. Also, if I bet at game at 6 and the line closes at 4 it doesn't mean my ticket has no value, it means my ticket has less value - remember 82% of the time the line is irrelevant and approximately 50% of the time 6 point point favorites win they cover the spread.

[downsouth]

I hear what you are saying but a couple points. First, the public makes up the majority of the action in the NFL so lines are designed to split the action not split the outcome. Also, if I bet at game at 6 and the line closes at 4 it doesn't mean my ticket has no value, it means my ticket has less value - remember 82% of the time the line is irrelevant and approximately 50% of the time 6 point point favorites win they cover the spread.

all that whatever. my point is that most who talk about bets having "value" use the term wrong. doesnt matter if it wins or loses. stating a bet has value implies it will close worse than what you are betting it at.

[ZINISTER]

Morino they are "PROs" you are NOT! Until you are a "PRO" you are a scum. Ignore em' or give up and leave. To argue with this bunch is a HUGE waste of time! You will be able to pick the shyt bags from the good "PROs" in time. Most everyone of them are azzholes just like in the REAL world.

[milwaukee mike]

I hear what you are saying but a couple points. First, the public makes up the majority of the action in the NFL so lines are designed to split the action not split the outcome. Also, if I bet at game at 6 and the line closes at 4 it doesn't mean my ticket has no value, it means my ticket has less value - remember 82% of the time the line is irrelevant and approximately 50% of the time 6 point point favorites win they cover the spread.

that number is incorrect

6 point favorites cover the spread 50% of the time... they win outright about 70% of the time, so when they win they probably cover the spread about 70% (.7 x .7 = .49)

[downsouth]

Morino they are "PROs" you are NOT! Until you are a "PRO" you are a scum. Ignore em' or give up and leave. To argue with this bunch is a HUGE waste of time! You will be able to pick the shyt bags from the good "PROs" in time. Most everyone of them are azzholes just like in the REAL world.

Sheesh guy, who shit in your cereal this morning. I didn't jump at him, try to argue with him or anything other than point something out that may or may not help him going forward. Pro or not what I said about "value" holds true. I'm sure I'm an azzhole but this is really not my finest work in that department. Smoke a bowl, jack off or whatever you do and maybe try starting the day over, you seem to be a little grumpy.

[KVB]

What we are really trying to do is ascertain value before the game kicks off. The market isn't always as efficient as some seem to think in this thread, but we will assume the efficient lens of looking at the market for relative value.

Again, we are trying to predict the value, get it with confidence before the markets move, like I was doing in the post above, even though it is only the 3rd week. When viewing the market as efficient, make no mistake, there is little to drive the market to efficiency this early in the season.

It’s only week 3 and we truly need 4 weeks of data to ascertain the relative market value around the league...

...This early public assumption might explain what appears to be a low line on Carolina with these numbers. The agreement in the forecasts and gauge, with this low line, could present a danger to the Carolina moneyline...

...That said the line seems little low and could move toward -7 or even -7.5...

The line is actually getting pressure on the New Orleans side and not moving upward. There is public pressure on the spread, but my information shows there is more pressure from larger trades on the moneyline, causing the line to move in conjunction, according to common pricing charts (also built by efficient market believers).

This line may not be done shifting as its movement is being led not by the conventioanl sharper market moving money, but by only some market moving traders and the public itself.

[MMANick]

McCaffrey is going to finally go off this week, right?

[quitefrankle]

Last two seasons Saints started 0-3 and that included playing at Carolina and lost 22-27. Saints a slow starting team in the season. Saints are averaging almost 20 points/game this season. Can Panthers put up 26 or 27 points?

[KVB]

That pressure on Carolina was quickly countered and some books that pulled off of 6 are back on it. Movement through 5.5 and onto and off of 5 is not very significant.

Pulling off of 6 and back onto 6, either way, shows more significant pressure.

[ZINISTER]

You will have to sweat the backdoor cover w/Brees. Cumshot Newton loves to play up to his home crowd. They cheer him and humor his ego. He should be getting his game legs back. Look for a BIG game outta this annoying fock. That is a "PRO" pick from a NON-"PRO" loser fock. GL

[shadymcgrady]

Betting against that fukkstik Sean peyton is always a great idea

[milwaukee mike]

That pressure on Carolina was quickly countered and some books that pulled off of 6 are back on it. Movement through 5.5 and onto and off of 5 is not very significant.

Pulling off of 6 and back onto 6, either way, shows more significant pressure.

5 seems to be more significant than people think... for a game like this it's important to have a bunch of outs, if you like carolina you can find -5 (-110) and if you like the saints you can find +6 (-110)

• 1 point 4.27%
• 2 pts 3.74%
• 3 pts 15.38%
• 4 pts 5.58%
• 5 pts 3.15%
• 6 pts 5.76%
• 7 pts 8.04%
• 8 pts 2.56%
• 9 pts 1.83%
• 10 pts 5.80%

[KVB]

5 seems to be more significant than people think... for a game like this it's important to have a bunch of outs, if you like carolina you can find -5 (-110) and if you like the saints you can find +6 (-110)

• 1 point 4.27%
• 2 pts 3.74%
• 3 pts 15.38%
• 4 pts 5.58%
• 5 pts 3.15%
• 6 pts 5.76%
• 7 pts 8.04%
• 8 pts 2.56%
• 9 pts 1.83%
• 10 pts 5.80%

On this particular list, 5 is the third lowest percentage out of 10 numbers. It's not very significant at all, only to an unsuspecting public.

It will not trigger market moving decision makers coming onto and off of 5. It's an illusion created by the market.

That's the lesson I'm trying to get across. Heavy pressure pulls it off of 6, but the from 5.5 to 5 is basically bullshit. At any point, from 5.5 and 5, any sophisticated decision makers seeking the favorite will hit.

This is one reason the line is suspiciously low. The movement from 5.5 to 5 is likely a technique to generate action, almost mini steam, at a moment when market moving money may be triggered at 5.5.

The moneyline bets drove the action, then the books sustained it.

The books seek to generate action, and the have, on both sides of this line.

[milwaukee mike]

On this particular list, 5 is the third lowest percentage out of 10 numbers. It's not very significant at all, only to an unsuspecting public.

It will not trigger market moving decision makers coming onto and off of 5. It's an illusion created by the market.

That's the lesson I'm trying to get across. Heavy pressure pulls it off of 6, but the from 5.5 to 5 is basically bullshit. At any point, from 5.5 and 5, any sophisticated decision makers seeking the favorite will hit.

This is one reason the line is suspiciously low. The movement from 5.5 to 5 is likely a technique to generate action, almost mini steam, at a moment when market moving money may be triggered at 5.5.

The moneyline bets drove the action, then the books sustained it.

The books seek to generate action, and the have, on both sides of this line.

my point was that 3% of the games still land on 5... for line movement purposes you're probably right but for line SHOPPING purposes there is still a nice difference between -5 and -6

[KVB]

my point was that 3% of the games still land on 5... for line movement purposes you're probably right but for line SHOPPING purposes there is still a nice difference between -5 and -6

Of course there is, because you moved on to 6.

My point is that the difference between 5 and 5.5 is not nearly so nice and won't trigger the kind of plays that moving on and off of 6 would.