Patriots line creep: will early Pats bettors be rewarded in 2 weeks ?

**gauchojake** · 01-24-17, 08:16 PM

Originally posted by Seaweed

Line may always move depending on weather

Very sharp seeweed

**byronbb** · 01-24-17, 08:21 PM

It will never move off the 3.

**bradleysnyder** · 01-24-17, 08:30 PM

pfffff....one thing i can guarantee is this game will go OVER.....this may be the highest scoring super bowl.....atlanta will win this game.....38-31.....34-31 type game...ATLANTA

**gauchojake** · 01-24-17, 08:45 PM

Juice move seems to indicate a 3.5 is on the horizon at one or more offshore books. Guys remember that you can live bet. Your position is never set in stone.

**lakerboy** · 01-24-17, 08:53 PM

Originally posted by gauchojake

Juice move seems to indicate a 3.5 is on the horizon at one or more offshore books. Guys remember that you can live bet. Your position is never set in stone.

You ever heard of a deer in headlights (Ryan)

**gauchojake** · 01-24-17, 08:58 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

You ever heard of a deer in headlights (Ryan)

He has proven over and over again that he is a choke artist. Now he gets to do it on the biggest stage. I will be ready just in case he doesn't though

**byronbb** · 01-24-17, 09:21 PM

Books do not need heavy money on NE at -3 and heavy at ATL +3.5 this would be murder.

**lakerboy** · 01-24-17, 09:24 PM

Originally posted by gauchojake

He has proven over and over again that he is a choke artist. Now he gets to do it on the biggest stage. I will be ready just in case he doesn't though

I took some on them but I will renegotiate if necessary

**recon1** · 01-24-17, 09:47 PM

Falcons may very well win SU. Plan accordingly

**grease lightnin** · 01-24-17, 09:56 PM

I think Pats win.

With that said, I don't buy KVB's supposed knowledge that big books choose sides.

KVB, please plainly tell us how you know this. Thanks.

**Snowball** · 01-24-17, 10:27 PM

Vegas does not take sides, they are mostly public corporations, they have shareholders and operate as neutral bookmakers not gamblers. Same with all the offshore entities, you know, the ones you actually don't fear playing at.

ugh, mute Neil Patrick Harris, ruined Heineken forever.

**shockey43** · 01-24-17, 10:44 PM

Barring anything significant in terms of injuries or key players, this line will not move past 3.5, if it even moves there at all. With that being said, I'd take the ML if you're betting the Pats or Falcons. Anything can happen at 3 and it's worth the extra juice or +money (depending on the side). This game could easily come down to the wire and become a 1 / 2 point game IMO

**newguy** · 01-24-17, 10:51 PM

We keep talking about where line goes. Do people really think this will land on exactly 3? The game I mean. I don't think this is a 3 point game. Whatever I do I'm selling off of 3 and getting + odds

**RoyBacon** · 01-24-17, 10:54 PM

Originally posted by The Giant

I think it will too.

When the matchup was clear I was making this game NE-1. And my reasoning was Atl is the slightly better team but the Pats get 3 to 4 for coaching and Brady. The defensive advantage NE has is slightly over rated. Atl is certainly not the steelers or Texans. Atl is going to move the ball effectively with Ryan via the short pass with their speed. NE may well cover but the line value and really the better team is Atl imo.

**gauchojake** · 01-24-17, 11:08 PM

What we don't know is the exposure from books on ATL and NE futures. If you believe what you read, that clown Vefas Dave has 5 mil on ATL. Maybe the true line on this game is NE -7 but the books cannot risk an even money or ATL heavy betting pool so they give the number which will attract bettors to the Pats.

The point in all of this is that maybe the books do look for even money, it's just not as short sighted as one game.

**lakerboy** · 01-24-17, 11:14 PM

Originally posted by grease lightnin

I think Pats win.

With that said, I don't buy KVB's supposed knowledge that big books choose sides.

KVB, please plainly tell us how you know this. Thanks.

Once again you are on the public side. Point proven. Have you ever taken a dog? Are you afraid of a +sign?

**grease lightnin** · 01-25-17, 12:05 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Once again you are on the public side. Point proven. Have you ever taken a dog? Are you afraid of a +sign?

I didn't even say I was betting the game. How does me saying I think the pats will win have anything to do with whether books pick sides or not?

Last week I took a ml dog parlay you said would lose... and it won.

**grease lightnin** · 01-25-17, 12:07 AM

Originally posted by gauchojake

What we don't know is the exposure from books on ATL and NE futures. If you believe what you read, that clown Vefas Dave has 5 mil on ATL. Maybe the true line on this game is NE -7 but the books cannot risk an even money or ATL heavy betting pool so they give the number which will attract bettors to the Pats.

The point in all of this is that maybe the books do look for even money, it's just not as short sighted as one game.

This makes a lot of sense.

**johnnyvegas13** · 01-25-17, 12:10 AM

like other have said this won't move

books will rake w 3/4 of bets on pats

**Justwinbaby979** · 01-25-17, 12:17 AM

If u bet 100 on pats every game since bill and brady i wonder how much youd be up

**AshinKusher** · 01-25-17, 02:33 AM

They will keep it at -3 and adjust the juice or ml as needed. Vegas doesnt know who will win. Doubt they wanna move off -3. Books taking the conservative role after getting raped most of playoffs

**Cuse0323** · 01-25-17, 02:47 AM

I don't see anything but the juice moving. I think books are set on 3.

**astro61200** · 01-25-17, 06:00 AM

Originally posted by Cuse0323

I don't see anything but the juice moving. I think books are set on 3.

Feeling better about the Falcons now that you see all these Pats supporters? Toss another dime on the ML. Going to be eating good come February 6th!

**Cuse0323** · 01-25-17, 06:18 AM

Originally posted by astro61200

Feeling better about the Falcons now that you see all these Pats supporters? Toss another dime on the ML. Going to be eating good come February 6th!

If Nadal wins I'll be throwing another 5 on the ML. So a dime total. I'm feeling good, so just trying to win money to keep throwing more, and more on them.

**astro61200** · 01-25-17, 06:31 AM

Originally posted by Cuse0323

If Nadal wins I'll be throwing another 5 on the ML. So a dime total. I'm feeling good, so just trying to win money to keep throwing more, and more on them.

Don't neglect that ATL team total either.. Gonna hang 35+!

**BigdaddyQH** · 01-25-17, 01:49 PM

Vegas has determined that the line will not move. This is quite common with Superbowls. It will stay at -3. AS some have said in here, the Vig will move to try to equal out the money that is being wagered on one team or the other. I have seen lines from -3 (-5) to -3 (-20), but nothing higher or lower than -3. Of course -3 (-20) is the same as -3 1/2 (-10)

**gauchojake** · 01-25-17, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Vegas has determined that the line will not move. This is quite common with Superbowls. It will stay at -3. AS some have said in here, the Vig will move to try to equal out the money that is being wagered on one team or the other. I have seen lines from -3 (-5) to -3 (-20), but nothing higher or lower than -3. Of course -3 (-20) is the same as -3 1/2 (-10)

Can you send me the name of your book that let's you buy off of 3 for 10 cents?

**KVB** · 01-25-17, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by gauchojake

...The point in all of this is that maybe the books do look for even money, it's just not as short sighted as one game.

Originally posted by KVB

...It doesn't have to game by game, what if the book sought balance over a six month or year long period?

What if the books sought long term profit as I described in that post...

Somebody's learning.

**KVB** · 01-25-17, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by gauchojake

Can you send me the name of your book that let's you buy off of 3 for 10 cents?

**KVB** · 01-25-17, 06:34 PM

Originally posted by grease lightnin

I think Pats win.

With that said, I don't buy KVB's supposed knowledge that big books choose sides.

KVB, please plainly tell us how you know this. Thanks.

I've actually answered this question several times.

I once wrote a two paragraph post with a play on a game printed in bold. Your reply was that you couldn't understand what I was playing.

You're a big too long didn't read guy and were either trolling or are that dumb. I've read your other posts and I like you, I don't think you are that obtuse.

So I conclude that you were and are just a troll. Who knows, maybe you thought you were being cool or something, but when it comes to educating the public about gambling, market and bookmaking mechanics, you are a distraction and waste of my time.

**BigdaddyQH** · 01-25-17, 06:37 PM

Originally posted by gauchojake

Can you send me the name of your book that let's you buy off of 3 for 10 cents?

I wager in Vegas exclusively. If you are well known at a certain casino, and care to wager enough money, they will allow you this wager. You had better have the ability and the knowledge about how to "take care" of the employees in the casino. That means tip often and to the right people. My guess is no one in here does that. Since the vast majority of players in here are either air bettors or wager off shore, they would know nothing about what I am talking about. Small timers do not get this wager. And you sure as hell will not get it at some small time off shore book.

**KVB** · 01-25-17, 06:40 PM

BigDaddy found Coochy's Cash Flow Positive bookie.

Good for him.

**jjgold** · 01-25-17, 07:02 PM

Cannot buy

He is lying like usual

**RoyBacon** · 01-25-17, 07:28 PM

Pinnacle showing no signs of NE drift yet. In fact, if anything, we may be seeing some Atl drift.

-3 -103

+3 -107

**grease lightnin** · 01-25-17, 08:16 PM

Originally posted by KVB

I've actually answered this question several times.

I once wrote a two paragraph post with a play on a game printed in bold. Your reply was that you couldn't understand what I was playing.

You're a big too long didn't read guy and were either trolling or are that dumb. I've read your other posts and I like you, I don't think you are that obtuse.

So I conclude that you were and are just a troll. Who knows, maybe you thought you were being cool or something, but when it comes to educating the public about gambling, market and bookmaking mechanics, you are a distraction and waste of my time.

Do I troll? Yes. It is fun. Do I always troll? No.

I am not in the sports betting industry, but I am in an industry that gives me enough perpective to know that large sports books are not in the business of betting on sporting events. They are collecting the vig.

Also, in my industry, there are people that speak in complex and vague terms, that make them sound really smart to the average layperson, but when you add it all up, it amounts to a load of bullshit. And you find that what they are really doing is trying to impress people with the mumbo jumbo hoping they can hide the fact that they really don't know much at all.

That is how I see you. No offense, but I call em like I see em.

I believe that if you really had the knowledge you claim to have, you wouldn't speak in riddles. You would speak plainly.