FSU -6 @ Louisville

[Trmeyer]

Louisville has arguably the most talent of any team in the country, but they are too undisciplined. They jump offsides too much and are hot heads. They react to trash talk and get 15 yard penalties. I think they are the better team, but I can't trust them. BUT...... I really like the over 51 here. Good luck guys

[LT Profits]

Y'all really should go breakdown Louisville's season thus far to get a better impression of their team and especially the defense. They are overrated.
1st game- at home against Miami and Miami started a true freshman QB and he was absolutely horrible.
2nd game- Murray State, no comment needed.
3rd game-At UVA they lost and let a subpar UVA offense score 24
4th game-FIU, no comment
5th game- Wake Forest. Worst team in the ACC
6th game- At Syracuse. pretty impressive defensive performance against an OK Syracuse team.
7th game-at Clemson, Clemson without normal starting QB.
8th game- NC State... gave up 350 yards to an NC State team with 7 players suspended some were starters.

Not saying Louisville isn't a good defensive team. I think they are. But I think their numbers are inflated by the fact they've played mostly teams that suck on offense. FSU will be the best offensive team they've faced "BY FAR".

And FSU's defense is better than Louisville's. FSU wins by 14.

There is no need to guess, defensive efficiency rankings are adjusted for schedule. Louisville leads the country in ADJUSTED defensive efficiency, Florida State is 20th. So FSU's is good, but Louisville's is still far superior.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feidef

[DOM-Ganador]

I have no idea how long it was -8.5, but to drop past the 7 and 6 all the way down to 3.5 now is insane line movement.
Anyone have a good reason for this?

[Unwritten Law]

Parlaying:

KC Royals -149
Louisville +150

[LT Profits]

I have no idea how long it was -8.5, but to drop past the 7 and 6 all the way down to 3.5 now is insane line movement.
Anyone have a good reason for this?

I never saw 8.5, lines opened at 6.5. At one point 5 Dimes had a juiced +7 but I never saw +7 at normal juice at the real books.

[pavyracer]

How can you put your money on a Petrino coached team? He is awful coach.

[TPowell]

How can you put your money on a Petrino coached team? He is awful coach.

41-9 before this year at Louisville....................

[Retrospect]

You guys think it stays at 3.5 or goes down more? I should just jump on it now.

Even the ML just -165

I think its a sucker bet. Vegas will let Louisville covers

[JMUplayer]

Louisville's O line is a trainwreck.... yes their defense is VERY solid but they cant block the sisters of the poor

[Schweino]

Noles offense is starting to click. Rudolph is finding his bearing as a WR and the two young studs Pender and Cook are doing quite well. The Noles D is not 2013, but with every game that young D gets a little bit better. I think FSU wins by 10, but jumped on -3.5.

[3runhomer]

Noles will roll tomorrow. I say its within a td at half, and the noles pull away in the 2nd half winning by 17

[BriGuy]

I have to admit, I went big on the Seminoles.

Further proof that BriGuy = Sucker.

[goduke]

FSU doesnt make the playoff if they lose. So I'm going to back the team thats season depends on this game. If they lose so be it. But i dont want to back louisville and then if they get smoked be pissed that I played against a team thats trying to get into the playoff

[jtoler]

Looks like another game Jameis will have to win with his arm and he's very capable, but theyre gonna need Williams and some healthy production in the run game somehow.

[jtoler]

Id be more afraid of Petrino than anything in this game if I was to back FSU.

[jtoler]

Jameis will find a way.

[Cuse0323]

I think its a sucker bet. Vegas will let Louisville covers

Works for me, last bet I have left is on FSU ML or back to the retirement home.

[GREGREEK]

FSU -4 . Louisville will lose to FSU BC and ND.

[jjgold]

Its only -3.5 now?????

[goduke]

Realistically if fsu loses tonight can anyone give me a solid scenario where they would still make the playoff?

[LT Profits]

Realistically if fsu loses tonight can anyone give me a solid scenario where they would still make the playoff?

Nope. But I still think they'll lose. They could want and need the game all they want, that would not matter if they can't solve Louisville defense.

[LT Profits]

Noles offense is starting to click. Rudolph is finding his bearing as a WR and the two young studs Pender and Cook are doing quite well. The Noles D is not 2013, but with every game that young D gets a little bit better. I think FSU wins by 10, but jumped on -3.5.

Great defense stops great offense 99% of the time.

[swag1982]

Great defense stops great offense 99% of the time.

Ok lt u make good points and I don't like betting against sharp money which is apparently on Louisville and national TV Thursday night game all favors the home dog but a mediocre Virginia put what 21 or 24 points on them u don't think Fsu will be able to do that . Was Louisvilles d banged up that game or am I missing somthing. I still haven't takin a side yet trying to make up my mind here

[LT Profits]

Ok lt u make good points and I don't like betting against sharp money which is apparently on Louisville and national TV Thursday night game all favors the home dog but a mediocre Virginia put what 21 or 24 points on them u don't think Fsu will be able to do that . Was Louisvilles d banged up that game or am I missing somthing. I still haven't takin a side yet trying to make up my mind here

Forget about raw points allowed and just consider that Louisville leads the country in both raw defensive efficiency and adjusted efficiency. But getting back to the Virginia game, Louisville allowed only 282 total yards on 2.9 yards per rush 4.7 yards per pass! The only reason they allowed 23 points (and consequently lost with the offense missing Parker and Dyer) was because of 4 turnovers.

[jjgold]

What a middle if you took Louisville early

[Schweino]

Great defense stops great offense 99% of the time.

True story. But as Jimbo has said countless times...them boys find a way to win. Noles by 10.

[Schweino]

Oh an Lang is on Louy. That is all

[LT Profits]

True story. But as Jimbo has said countless times...them boys find a way to win. Noles by 10.

But can they find a way to win with their defense alone? That is what FSU will need to do tonight.

[Schweino]

Im hoping for a 38-20 type game. Played the over too.

[LT Profits]

Im hoping for a 38-20 type game. Played the over too.

If game is that high scoring, Louisville will lose. I am kind of intrigued by FSU Under 27 Team Total, but will probably lay off.

[goduke]

Nope. But I still think they'll lose. They could want and need the game all they want, that would not matter if they can't solve Louisville defense.

This is enough for me to back FSU then. I would rather lose in this scenario with the team thats trying to play for a national championship then a team that is playing for alot less

[LT Profits]

This is enough for me to back FSU then. I would rather lose in this scenario with the team thats trying to play for a national championship then a team that is playing for alot less

I'd be more inclined to agree if the team with the better defense wasn't the underdog. Since I laid off the ML, would not bother me if FSU wins by 4 or less.

[Schweino]

I'd be more inclined to agree if the team with the better defense wasn't the underdog. Since I laid off the ML, would not bother me if FSU wins by 4 or less.

Wouldnt bother me either! (-3.5) :P

[DennisT]

Of late Louisville teams seem to feed of of Florida teams. No reason to think yhis night will be any different
Louisville +4 Luck All!

[kfranz31]

line down to -4