Best NFL Handicapper

[Capybara]

For your reference:

SuperContest Weekly Card

The SuperContest cards are posted before 5:00 PM PST EVERY WEDNESDAY. These are the SuperContest numbers only. They are not current or live odds and not intended for wagering purposes.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 24, 2015
1 GIANTS*	5:30 PM	2 REDSKINS	+3.5
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 27, 2015
3 STEELERS	10:00 AM	4 RAMS*	+1.5
5 VIKINGS*	10:00 AM	6 CHARGERS	+2.5
7 TEXANS*	10:00 AM	8 BUCCANEERS	+6.5
9 JETS*	10:00 AM	10 EAGLES	+2.5
11 PANTHERS*	10:00 AM	12 SAINTS	+4.5
13 PATRIOTS*	10:00 AM	14 JAGUARS	+13.5
15 RAVENS*	10:00 AM	16 BENGALS	+2.5
17 BROWNS*	10:00 AM	18 RAIDERS	+3.5
19 COLTS	10:00 AM	20 TITANS*	+3
21 FALCONS	10:00 AM	22 COWBOYS*	+2
23 CARDINALS*	1:05 PM	24 49ERS	+6.5
25 SEAHAWKS*	1:25 PM	26 BEARS	+14.5
27 DOLPHINS*	1:25 PM	28 BILLS	+3
29 BRONCOS	5:30 PM	30 LIONS*	+3
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2015
31 PACKERS*	5:30 PM	32 CHIEFS	+6.5

[House]

Bills + 3 ...Skins +3.5 ......Chargers +2.5 .....Bengals +2.5 ...... just wanna see if any of these get picked ... lots of nice dogs this week

[KingsCupGame com]

Put a few bucks on the Redskins tonight.

[House]

Put a few bucks on the Redskins tonight.

already on that

[KingHutch]

Do picks that include TNF get released prior to the game?

[Capybara]

Do picks that include TNF get released prior to the game?

Nope. We can't see the contestants' picks until Saturday. So you can't tail any TNF plays. Such is life.

[uup115]

My version of analyzing the SuperContest--->

Ranked in unit of bet size

0 Carolina ---> Was 13, highest ever rated but stale line and a 5 point move against has eliminated this selection.

9 St Louis +1.5 ---> 0 selections against.
5 Philadelphia +2.5 ---> 0 selections against.
4 Dallas +2 ---> 1 selections against.
3 Chicago +14.5 ---> 0 selections against.
3 Jacksonville +13.5 ---> 0 selections against.
3 San Francisco +6.5 ---> 0 selections against.
3 Indianapolis -3* ---> 1 selections against.
3 Oakland +3.5* ---> 0 selections against.

FYI- DFL has selected Carolina and Baltimore in both of his entries. I will be placing a 1 unit side bet on Baltimore for the consensus play. Carolina as stated above has moved well out of range.

*Any full point movement against or key number (3,7,10) move against will make me cut my risk by 20%. Shop your lines!

[charcoalbbq]

^^ are those dfs lane picks?

[Slanina]

^^ are those dfs lane picks?

D F L 1	TB	PHI	CAR	BAL	OAK
D F L 2	CAR	BAL	ATL	CHI	DET

[charcoalbbq]

thanks.

[Slanina]

Consensus picks of top 15 (3 unknown entries) finishers last year:

Saint Louis - 8 selections

Carolina - 7 selections

Dallas - 7 selections

Indy - 5 selections


Two additional top 30 players last year with their record so far this year:

TeamDHG 10-0: STL TB CAR IND GB

PhilDeez 8-2: CAR CLE IND SEA KC


Consensus picks for bottom 9 players in standings. 1 player is 0-10. 8 players are 1-9. This was just for fun.

Dallas - 4 selections

Baltimore, Carolina, Giants, Packers - 3 selections

[jt315]

Love that Rams pick.
Heavy percentage on Pitt and line going down.
Public down on Rams after last week, high on Pitt.
And a Thursday night home game against the hated Ravens on deck for Pitt.
Reminds me a lot of Jets Pitt game last year.

That and a double dip on the Ravens for DFL is all I need for tomorrow.

[Ra77er]

[Slanina]

I'm on Rams, Colts and Cowboys. Panthers lined moved way too much. I also took Ravens. They were selected 3x.

[ToPHeR]

CH Ballers


Minny
Philadelphia
Baltimore
Indy

[charcoalbbq]

hey salina,
i was looking at one of your posts about this guy in the super fade material thread and you said message you to get the guys name. i cant msg now because of low post count...could you please msg me the name, i am going to look him up. also let me know if he posts the picks here. thanks.

[charcoalbbq]

Love that Rams pick.
Heavy percentage on Pitt and line going down.
Public down on Rams after last week, high on Pitt.
And a Thursday night home game against the hated Ravens on deck for Pitt.
Reminds me a lot of Jets Pitt game last year.

That and a double dip on the Ravens for DFL is all I need for tomorrow.

rams and detroit moneyline are probably the best picks. manning and denver coach are not getting along. manning loves the shot gun formation but the coach likes more conventional offence. in kc against manning's wish the coach ran the conventional offence and manning sucked and couldn't score. after halftime manning convinced the coach to switch to shot gun and as a results denver rallied and won. but the idiot coach said today that he is going to stick to his conventional methods because that is what he believes in that he has to work on it instead of turning back on something that he believes. conflict of interest between the coach and qb....this time i think manning won't bother convincing the coach to prove his point and probably lose good. safer bet is probably detroit first half but i have action on both.

[Slanina]

hey salina,
i was looking at one of your posts about this guy in the super fade material thread and you said message you to get the guys name. i cant msg now because of low post count...could you please msg me the name, i am going to look him up. also let me know if he posts the picks here. thanks.

He's a random Twitter tout. His handle is @pinny420

From what I heard, he's okay with soccer. I don't fade him nowadays.

[16kredit]

games are not looking good, ouch. This second half was a disaster for most of these games. Im praying to go even

[Slanina]

My goodness at these 2nd halves and final minutes. Brutal.

[16kredit]

and the thing is the weekly card had carolina as -4,5 so they will count it as a win...
brutal, honestly these were like the worst bad beats. Baltimore, Indy nail biter
Stl cant beat a team with michael vick at helmet. Dallas meltdown in 2nd half.
What were the chances after the great start to go this bad

[Slanina]

Tough week. If it makes any one feel better, none of the top 15 had a good week. Pretty crazy. Majority went 1-4 or 2-3. And that's even including the stale Carolina line that the majority picked. Not one of them went 4-1 or better.


Lane 1 went 3-2

Lane 2 went 2-3

He really needs to let go of his Detroit backing.

[Slanina]

Wow, snapperman2. Thank you for that generous and random point gift. i just noticed it now. If you're reading this, thank you.

[funnyman]

Even "experts" have bad days.

[mitch51]

I do my own capping, but I wanted to put in my two cents worth in anyway. I really think you guys are gonna make a lot of $$$ doing this. But what I recommend is that you get a system in place and really whack these games big time. And the most important thing, I think, is to stick with your system here and not change it when you drop a few games which you will. If you change things up, that's when you get whipsawed. Stay the course. I'm gonna be watching you guys win a lot of money here.

[charcoalbbq]

He's a random Twitter tout. His handle is @pinny420

From what I heard, he's okay with soccer. I don't fade him nowadays.

Are you sure pinny420 was the picks that doughboy was posting in his SUPER FADE MATERIAL THREAD? was it not some reddy?

[uup115]

I do my own capping, but I wanted to put in my two cents worth in anyway. I really think you guys are gonna make a lot of $$$ doing this. But what I recommend is that you get a system in place and really whack these games big time. And the most important thing, I think, is to stick with your system here and not change it when you drop a few games which you will. If you change things up, that's when you get whipsawed. Stay the course. I'm gonna be watching you guys win a lot of money here.

Thanks for the encouraging words, a full report will be posted shortly. My system was created to be modified as the season progresses but I'm going to take this week as an anomaly and not panic. Simple observation and hopefully not wishful thinking leads me to believe we were on the right side of most of these games this week.

[uup115]

(units)
(rating/adj.rating) (S.C. Line/Real Line)

9/9 St Louis +1.5/+1 L
5/6 Philadelphia +2.5/+3 W
4/4 Dallas +2/+1.5 L
3/3 Chicago +14.5/+14.5 L
3/3 Jacksonville +13.5/+14 L
3/3 San Francisco +6.5/+6.5 L
3/3 Indianapolis -3*/-3(125) L
3/3 Oakland +3.5*/+3.5 W

Bloodbath, minor adjustments are going to be made. This week results 2-6 with a -19 unit loss. Total for the season is now 11-10 with -3 units profit.

[jt315]

Hopefully just a bump in the road. Keep up the good work guys.

[Slanina]

I do my own capping, but I wanted to put in my two cents worth in anyway. I really think you guys are gonna make a lot of $$$ doing this. But what I recommend is that you get a system in place and really whack these games big time. And the most important thing, I think, is to stick with your system here and not change it when you drop a few games which you will. If you change things up, that's when you get whipsawed. Stay the course. I'm gonna be watching you guys win a lot of money here.

I'm not interested in changing anything. I plan to keep it simple with consensus plays. There's no history if this will be successful or a disappointment. But either way it wouldn't make sense to tweak something while it's in the infant stages.

[Slanina]

(units)
(rating/adj.rating) (S.C. Line/Real Line)

9/9 St Louis +1.5/+1 L
5/6 Philadelphia +2.5/+3 W
4/4 Dallas +2/+1.5 L
3/3 Chicago +14.5/+14.5 L
3/3 Jacksonville +13.5/+14 L
3/3 San Francisco +6.5/+6.5 L
3/3 Indianapolis -3*/-3(125) L
3/3 Oakland +3.5*/+3.5 W

Bloodbath, minor adjustments are going to be made. This week results 2-6 with a -19 unit loss. Total for the season is now 11-10 with -3 units profit.

What exactly are you doing with your idea?

[uup115]

What exactly are you doing with your idea?

I'm following a selected group of players that showed strong consistent play the previous season, with players that have won in the past. I will eventually add players from this season that show the same strength and drop laggers from las season. I also modify betting strength according to the line movement from the "stale" SC number to real time lines. It is not a lot different from what you are doing as we can see from our results.

[charcoalbbq]

what are the two lanes for this week?

[Slanina]

I'm at work for another 4 hours. So I'll post everything later tonight. Probably 230am.

[charcoalbbq]

what is davids contest name