Best NFL Handicapper

**afgballer56** · 10-03-15, 11:41 PM

https://www.westgatedestinations.com/nevada/las-vegas/westgate-las-vegas-hotel-casino/casino/supercontest-selections

**oChRoNiCo** · 10-04-15, 12:05 AM

D F L 1	MIA	NYG	SF	STL	DET
D F L 2	IND	TB	CHI	WAS	CLE

**uup115** · 10-04-15, 01:16 AM

My version of analyzing the SuperContest--->

Ranked in unit of bet size

6 New Orleans -3*
5 Miami +1.5
5 Kansas City +4*
5 San Fransisco +8*
4 Cleveland +7.5
4 Houston +6*
3 NYG +5*
3 Detroit +10*

*Any full point movement for/against or key number (3,7,10) move for/against will make me adjust my risk +/- by 20%. Shop your lines!

**Slanina** · 10-04-15, 02:15 AM

Consensus plays for top 15 finishers last year(12 entries available)

New Orleans - 7 selections

Detroit - 6 selections

Oakland - 5 selections

Kansas City - 5 selections

Jacksonville - 5 selections

Cleveland - 5 selections

Saint Louis - 4 selections

Two top 30 finishers last year with record so far this year:

TeamDHG 12-3 ATL TB WAS DEN STL

PhilDeez 10-5 NYJ JAX NYG ARI NO

Consensus for bottom 7 players this year (1 player is 2-13. 6 players are 3-12)

Jacksonville - 5 selections

Saint Louis - 4 selections

Tampa Bay - 3 selections

Sidenote: Only thing that really sticks out is the New Orleans play. 7 of the top 15(12 realistically) selected NO as a play. But the bottom 7 entries only had 1 NO selected. And the worst record (2-13) picked Dallas. So basically take out a 2nd mortgage and put it on NO. I'm kidding, of course.

**16kredit** · 10-04-15, 08:58 AM

any news from CH Ballers picks?
so many picks, what are you guys taking?

**brooks85** · 10-04-15, 09:02 AM

now is the riskiest time to start tailing blindly because of natural regression, you see a guy who is 13-2 and think he knows what is he doing. Next thing you see is he is 26-18 which isn't bad but the ride from 13-2 is.

**16kredit** · 10-04-15, 09:26 AM

I agree with you brooks, last year for most of the time Alcatraz holdings were the nr1. guy. Then after like week 10 he was regressing and he finished in maybe 25-30's

**Jimmy Proffett** · 10-04-15, 09:28 AM

Start fading the newbs that are 14-1 or 13-2 I say.

Here, in Slanina fashion, are the top plays of the 12 people @ 13-2 or better:

Arizona - 6 selections

Cincinnati - 5 selections

Carolina - 4 selections

Oakland - 4 selections

Jacksonville - 4 selections

So fade these picks all the way to glory!

**pavyracer** · 10-04-15, 09:30 AM

Put an extra 1hr of handicapping than tailing a bam from Vegas who doesn't bet real money.

**franklee168** · 10-04-15, 09:55 AM

I would say the entry fee and the first place prize of about 800k is about as real as it gets.

**House** · 10-04-15, 09:59 AM

Originally posted by Jimmy Proffett

Start fading the newbs that are 14-1 or 13-2 I say.

Here, in Slanina fashion, are the top plays of the 12 people @ 13-2 or better:

Arizona - 6 selections

Cincinnati - 5 selections

Carolina - 4 selections

Oakland - 4 selections

Jacksonville - 4 selections

So fade these picks all the way to glory!

Only one Im fading is the Bengals .... the rest are plays for me

**uup115** · 10-04-15, 10:18 AM

Originally posted by 16kredit

I agree with you brooks, last year for most of the time Alcatraz holdings were the nr1. guy. Then after like week 10 he was regressing and he finished in maybe 25-30's

I am watching him as well, but you have to account for the picks within the tournament. Proper strategy would be to pick against the leaders to gain ground when behind. Do we know for sure this is what he did, no. DFL has expressed this position and I'm sure others as well do it late.

**csavoia** · 10-04-15, 11:06 AM

So who should o be taking today.
I am confused?
Thought there was one guy we were tailing. Can anyone help please?

**Slanina** · 10-04-15, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by csavoia

So who should o be taking today.
I am confused?
Thought there was one guy we were tailing. Can anyone help please?

It's honestly up to you. Personally, I tail top consensus plays. I don't mess with the bottom players. I only form that consensus for fun. So I bet New Orleans to Saint Louis from tailing top 15 consensus. Good luck whatever you decide.

**Slanina** · 10-04-15, 11:24 AM

Originally posted by 16kredit

any news from CH Ballers picks?
so many picks, what are you guys taking?

CH BALLERS:

Chiefs
Bears
Bucs
Texans

**nickcruz60** · 10-04-15, 11:25 AM

What's ch ballers name?

**Slanina** · 10-04-15, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by nickcruz60

What's ch ballers name?

I don't know in the contest. I get his plays by someone who pays for his service.

**Slanina** · 10-04-15, 07:23 PM

Consensus is 3-2 with the top two plays left to go. Potential to be a solid week. Go Saints!

**House** · 10-04-15, 10:55 PM

one more .... Saints hit also .... what were the points on the Det game from the Consensus plays ?

**House** · 10-04-15, 10:55 PM

never mind I see it

**Slanina** · 10-05-15, 10:53 PM

Great week for top consensus plays. Finishing 5-2. Steak get in my belly.

**Capybara** · 10-06-15, 12:23 AM

Hmm, so for Week 4, looks like Slanina's system won, Uupie's system lost, and David went 5-5 to continue his tepid trend thus far.

Should we start posting all the running tallies?

Thanks again for your efforts in here, guys.

**cmoney11** · 10-06-15, 02:48 AM

I somehow just discovered this thread. Love what you guys are doing and the work you're putting in. I'll be following very closely.

**uup115** · 10-06-15, 11:42 AM

(units)
(rating/adj.rating) (S.C. Line/Real Line)

6/6 New Orleans -3/-3 W
5/5 Miami +1.5/+2 L
5/5 Kansas City +4/+3.5 L
5/4 San Fransisco +8/+7 L
4/3 Cleveland +7.5/+6 W
4/3 Houston +6/+5 L
3/4 NYG +5/+6.5 W
3/3 Detroit +10/+10 W

This week we went 4-4 with a -2.9 unit loss.Total for the season is now 15-14 with -5.9 units profit.

**Slanina** · 10-06-15, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by Capybara

Hmm, so for Week 4, looks like Slanina's system won, Uupie's system lost, and David went 5-5 to continue his tepid trend thus far.

Should we start posting all the running tallies?

Thanks again for your efforts in here, guys.

Hopefully one of us stumbled upon a system/idea that shows profit over an entire season so we all could benefit.

**uup115** · 10-07-15, 10:43 AM

Originally posted by Slanina

Hopefully one of us stumbled upon a system/idea that shows profit over an entire season so we all could benefit.

With 1/4 of the season over I am going to start looking at this years leaders and cross reference.

**nspa87** · 10-09-15, 11:52 AM

Week 5?

**SEAHAWKHARRY** · 10-09-15, 12:30 PM

Sat afternoon picks become available

**nspa87** · 10-09-15, 01:00 PM

Roger!

**charcoalbbq** · 10-10-15, 10:01 PM

what r the 2 lanes?

**Slanina** · 10-10-15, 10:05 PM

David's picks this week.

D F L 1	HOU	TB	BAL	PHI	SD
D F L 2	HOU	ATL	KC	DET	SF

**Slanina** · 10-10-15, 10:07 PM

Consensus for top 15 finishers last year(12 available)

San Diego - 8 selections

Philadelphia - 8 selections

Tennessee - 7 selections

Seattle/49ers - 4 selections

Two top 30 finishers last year with their record so far this year:

TeamDHG 15-5 HOU TEN ATL OAK SD

PhilDeez 14-6 HOU JAX PHI ARI NYG

I'm not bothering with bottom players consensus. I don't factor it in much so it's a waste of time.

Only betting top 3 this week. 4 selections isn't convincing enough for me.

**Jimmy Proffett** · 10-10-15, 11:15 PM

What are the David picks? Who is that?

Thanks for the thread Slanina

**Slanina** · 10-10-15, 11:19 PM

Originally posted by Jimmy Proffett

What are the David picks? Who is that?
Thanks for the thread Slanina

He's the reason this thread was started. His real name is David Frohardt Lane. He won the contest in 2013 and this was created to tail his plays in 2014. He did okay last year. But it morphed into tracking other cappers in the contest.

**Jimmy Proffett** · 10-10-15, 11:29 PM

Originally posted by Slanina

He's the reason this thread was started. His real name is David Frohardt Lane. He won the contest in 2013 and this was created to tail his plays in 2014. He did okay last year. But it morphed into tracking other cappers in the contest.

I see..... well, thanks again for the thread

btw there are 6 guys this year with records of 16-3-1 or better so far; 5 of them are on Arizona. Food for thought.