Originally Posted by
suicidekings
The Lions and the Giants actually have a lot in common. Manning and Stafford are similarly skilled and both teams rely heavily on them, unable to run the ball very well. Defensively, the Giants are a little better against the run (they both suck at run defense) and the Lions are better in the secondary. We can give Detroit a bit of an edge on stopping Brees, but the advantage is not substantial when you consider the depth of the NO receiving corps. In the last game, Manning might have thrown for 400 yards, but it was on 47 pass attempts when he averages 35. The Giants were down big for more than half the game so Eli was playing a more high-risk, long distance game, so the passing numbers are a bit inflated. Without falling too far into the transitive properties argument, the Lions are bringing largely the same skill-set to the table that the Giants did, and New Orleans beat them down with ease. At home for the second week in a row after their bye, NO should be sharp in this game. If Detroit can pressure Brees, then the Lions can cover this game, but NO protects him extremely well (NO's OL is 5th best in sacks allowed). Even against a better secondary, if Brees has time to work, you're not going to stop him. I don't think there's much advantage to the spread here, however I like the Over. A 6.5 pt teaser for NO -2.5 / Over 47.5 seems like a strong play to me.