El Niño's NHL Thread

**Huckleberry Pig** · 02-19-13, 11:12 PM

Originally posted by Russian Rocket

dude wtf...u jinxed it ...it's now 3-3 at the Chicago game

no joke, what a dick move haha jk fitguy

**Russian Rocket** · 02-19-13, 11:28 PM

El Nino

**TC Woods** · 02-19-13, 11:31 PM

**fitguy67** · 02-19-13, 11:32 PM

late 3rd period Hawks meltdown made us sweat but Nino gets another

sorry for tempting fate with the gambling gods (when a sweep is still alive...can't say anything, kinda' lyk when a guy's got a no-hitter goin")

**Russian Rocket** · 02-19-13, 11:36 PM

hockey is one of the hardest games to predict - El Nino is unreal

**El Nino** · 02-20-13, 12:10 AM

**Dollars2Donuts** · 02-20-13, 03:51 AM

Congrats man.....I had another sub .500 night in the NHL.....tomorrow I will be tailing again.....if you keep going .500 I will be happy.....at least you will keep me off my crap picks.

**El Nino** · 02-20-13, 06:13 AM

3-0 +3.14u on the night.

YTD
30-19 +17.20u

Staying hot...12-3 +10.54u my last 15 picks.

**chabooky386** · 02-20-13, 11:53 AM

**BIGDAY** · 02-20-13, 12:24 PM

**El Nino** · 02-20-13, 06:12 PM

2/20

Over 5.5 Goals Flyers/Penguins (-125)
Los Angeles Kings (+105)

YTD
30-19 +17.20u

**tony_come** · 02-20-13, 06:15 PM

Do not touch kings

**El Nino** · 02-20-13, 06:28 PM

Originally posted by tony_come

Do not touch kings

You think the Flames win?

**Dollars2Donuts** · 02-20-13, 06:39 PM

LOVE the play on the Kings.....I am tailing you on both Nino....hope my luck doesn`t affect your results!

164441361-1	2/20/13 6:38pm	$115.00	$100.00		Pending	2/20/13 7:35pm Reduced Hockey 1 Philadelphia Flyers/Pittsburgh Penguins Over 5½ -115*
164441361-2	2/20/13 6:38pm	$250.00	$262.50		Pending	2/20/13 10:05pm Reduced Hockey 3 Los Angeles Kings +105* <SMALL>vs</SMALL> Calgary Flames

**tony_come** · 02-20-13, 06:45 PM

Originally posted by El Nino

You think the Flames win?

Yes sir

**El Nino** · 02-20-13, 06:54 PM

Originally posted by tony_come

Yes sir

Just one of those games where I disagree with the line movement. And on a short card, there's the most value on that side play. BOL

**tony_come** · 02-20-13, 06:57 PM

Bol

**El Nino** · 02-20-13, 09:42 PM

Cash the over with ease.

**Russian Rocket** · 02-20-13, 09:44 PM

Originally posted by El Nino

Cash the over with ease.

El Nino ur not suppose to spoil tonight's picks....hockey gods are gonna get ya pal

**ultimatum** · 02-20-13, 09:46 PM

Took Kings and Blues, good luck tonight guys.

**BigDeem5** · 02-21-13, 12:35 AM

Another sweep?

El Nino, gotta give u props buddy, keep killin it.

**El Nino** · 02-21-13, 12:36 AM

2-0 +1.85u

**Vegas39** · 02-21-13, 12:41 AM

Way to go niño

**fitguy67** · 02-21-13, 12:54 AM

damn u did it again...

was the kings pick another one of those unorthodox (fading RLM and other commonly-applied strands of betting logic) plays like u made on the leafs a few days ago?...if it was ur "spidey sense" on when to go against the grain is 2-0

**El Nino** · 02-21-13, 01:24 AM

Thanks, boys.

**tony_come** · 02-21-13, 01:25 AM

Nice niño

**tatddy** · 02-21-13, 01:25 AM

Good stuff. I wish I blind tailed people. Placed 1 NHL bet in my life

**No coincidences** · 02-21-13, 01:38 AM

**El Nino** · 02-21-13, 01:47 AM

Originally posted by fitguy67

damn u did it again...

was the kings pick another one of those unorthodox (fading RLM and other commonly-applied strands of betting logic) plays like u made on the leafs a few days ago?...if it was ur "spidey sense" on when to go against the grain is 2-0

Yeah, I just didn't agree with the line movement. The Flames are one of the worst defensive teams in the league. They score, but are good for giving up 3 a game. Throw in that it was MacDonald's 2nd start this year, I didn't feel they should be a -115 favorite after opening as a dog. The Kings are a better team top to bottom than the Flames. I assume the "sharp" money came in taking a home dog with 2 backup goalies starting, fading the team coming off a back to back. At Kings -115 it was a no play for me. When I saw them at +105, it was an easy 1u play. Sharp bettors could have snagged a little arb here. I also do not value home ice in hockey as much as other sports.

**19th Hole** · 02-21-13, 02:59 AM

Nice ice picks El Nino....

I wish you continued success
as I'm going to be gum stuck on
the side of your blades.

Keep crushing the game!

**El Nino** · 02-21-13, 06:28 AM

YTD
32-19 +19.05u

The ridiculous run keeps on going... Looking at my spreadsheet I'm 27-10 +25.57u dating back to Feb. 6th.

**Russian Rocket** · 02-21-13, 07:12 AM

pretty soon books will be looking to buy you out man

**TC Woods** · 02-21-13, 11:05 AM

You are doing so well, it won't surprise me to see Daimo-loser in your thread soon....

GL today

**fitguy67** · 02-21-13, 11:08 AM

and with the fire (aka. positive variance)...the inevitability of the unwelcome return of it's evil twin must be prepared for...

I play a lot of baccarat and bet only on banker...over the haul it wins 50.68% of the time...but it's very common to go on runs like 32-18...and you just know that a hideous flip-side run is "due" (not in the stupid chaser's "next bet" sense...but in the intelligent sense of knowing that over the haul short-term extreme periods of departure from 50.68--whether very hi or lo--can NOT persist and MUST be eventually offset by extreme departures in the other direction)

with a good capper like Nino here...the bankroll grows gradually by "breathing" thru the upswings ($-inhales)...then bearing with the inevitable counter-trend (or "corrective") downswing ($-exhales)...before
the trend re-asserts itself and another run of positve variance starts another upswing/inhale...etc etc

problem is, lots of babies on here don't understand how an account must breathe, how cold and hot periods necessarily intertwine (just as night and day, the seasons, etc.)...and when even a modest downswing sets in they immediately swing into "bich n blame" mode...very often the same guyz with the most exuberant "high fives" and "u da man" posts turn into the whiniest brats when the $-exhale bit kicks in

i certainly am enjoying this run...and hope it would continue forever...then Nino and his followers would never have to work another day in our lives...BUT...just in case the rules of probability and statistics reassert themselves...I offer up this

PUBLIC SERVICE DISCLAIMER

when you, me, or anyone pushes the submit button on any wager on their OWN account...for whatever reason...whether "blindly tailing" or "capped it by yourself"...makes absolutely no difference...

if you locked the play onto your OWN account and no one had a gun to your head...then it is your OWN wager...

i dont want to think about the hundreds of good threads ruined by idiots who cant' grasp that

So when a Nino play clikks all us makin' money can hi-five Nino and congratulate ourselves for recognizing a good source of value...but when a cold patch hits...we gotta remember we have no right whatsoever to bitch at anyone, apart from ourselves...but even that's unnecessary...cuz losses are not "mistakes" anyone made...theiy're simply the necessary business expense we have to be willing to make in order to cash the winning tickets!...

this is the highly-complex "win some/lose some" (aka. "that's the way the the cookie crumbles") principle of sports investment (and life)

______________

To be clear...I do not post this to be a "Debbie Downer"...I post it so that even one would-be whiner might catch himself before poisoning a good thread with idiotic, totally-useless bitch-n-blaming posts...

_______

short-version: eventually a painful losing run will kick in...it's no-one's fault...so, enjoy the current heat but keep your bet-sizes a small-enough-% of your roll so that when the cold-weather comes it doesn't wipe you out...above all, now that you're wised up and grown-up about variance...don't lash out at others when a downswing comes...and, while waiting for the upswing to return...take your losses like a man, not like a baby

**TC Woods** · 02-21-13, 11:29 AM

FitGuy -